Parker Messick Conquers the American League

In a world outlined and cheapened by soulless and repetitive optimization, the Cleveland Guardians are intractably themselves. Make no mistake, the Guardians’ quirks and foibles are the results of those self same nihilistic capitalist forces; they’re making an attempt to compete in opposition to groups with less-tightfisted homeowners in additional modern locales. These restrictions have formed the Guardians into one thing gnarled and odd and sometimes unpleasant, like a knotted tree sprouting from a rockface, or a squid that’s advanced to dwell in darkness 10,000 toes beneath the ocean floor.

It’s not all the time historically fairly, nevertheless it’s distinctive.

Right here we’re, in the course of Could, with Cleveland as soon as once more in sole possession of first place within the AL Central. (Don’t take a look at anybody’s document throughout the division, I’m making some extent.) Not the whole lot has gone easily for the Guardians up to now this yr, however they’re getting contributions the place it counts. Particularly from Parker Messick.

In Detroit, they make automobiles. In Seattle, they make airplanes. In Cleveland, they flip non-first-round-college-pitchability guys into dependable huge league starters. Shane Bieber was essentially the most profitable instance, however take into account additionally: Tanner Bibee, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, a number of Logans Allens… and now Messick, a second-rounder out of Florida State in 2022.

Messick is much from an unheralded prospect; he made it to the majors final yr and posted a 2.72 ERA in seven begins, whereas staying one out underneath the rookie eligibility threshold. His fastball averages within the 93-mph vary, which in right now’s all-gas baseball surroundings is common, even for a left-hander. However Messick has a large arsenal of high quality breaking pitches and he throws a ton of strikes (solely six walks in 39 2/3 innings final yr), in order that 2.72 ERA was backed up by a 3.06 xERA and a couple of.98 FIP.

That doesn’t imply the whole lot in lower than 1 / 4 of a season, nevertheless it’s encouraging.

And Messick has not slowed down in his rookie season correct. Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski rated Messick as Cleveland’s no. 5 prospect (and no. 82 total) this offseason. Messick’s 50-FV grade positioned him on par with Travis Bazzana and Khal Stephen, amongst others.

Their prognosis for Messick was that he was a high-floor, low-variance-type prospect, on account of his plus command and skill to alter speeds. Typically these abilities get handled like an afterthought as a result of they’re not as flashy as watching Jacob Misiorowski throw 115 mph, however if you happen to can throw strikes and alter speeds, you’ll be able to pitch successfully within the majors with a low-90s fastball.

The query is: How far more is Messick able to?

Properly, to start with, he’s a pleasant pitcher to observe. Within the span of 1 clause, Eric and Brendan described him as “sneaky athletic” and “husky however tremendous free.” (If I have been single, I’d be placing “husky however tremendous free” in my Tinder bio.)

Messick is listed at 6-foot even and 225 kilos, and in distinction to his longer, spindlier colleagues, he’s bought quick limbs and a torso formed like a Jersey barrier. Athletes with this physique sort don’t normally concern themselves with fastball velocity and offspeed stuff; you normally hear phrases like “pad degree” and “off-ball linebacker” of their scouting report.

He wears his pants tight and his jersey free; he cuts off the sleeves of his undershirt slightly below the elbow, and hikes his socks and stirrups as much as his knees. All this solely heightens the phantasm of cubicality, and makes him appear to be a swingman for the Fifties. His supply begins with an exaggerated arm stab and proceeds ahead right into a compact and highly effective drop-and-drive movement.

However as soon as the ball is out of his hand, Messick’s straight entrance leg arrests his ahead momentum and his different three limbs do kind of what they are going to. I clicked “Random Video” on Messick’s Baseball Savant web page and the very first pitch I noticed had him find yourself like this.

Ending like an offended goose, with the cut-off sleeves, Messick jogs my memory of Bob Gibson, if that’s not sacrilegious to say.

It’s nice. Give me 100 extra Messicks somewhat than even yet one more lab-grown 6-foot-4 right-hander from the Metroplex. This can be a college-pitchability man who nonetheless retains a college-pitchability man’s quirkiness.

Like most trendy huge league starters, Messick has a different arsenal for hitters on both aspect of the plate. For lefties, it’s four-seamer, sinker, slider, with occasional curveballs and changeups. For righties, it’s four-seamer, cutter, changeup, with the odd sinker thrown in to maintain everybody off stability.

All issues thought-about, that’s fairly orthodox. Final week, I wrote about Davis Martin’s continuum of pitches; if you graph the two-plane motion profiles of his choices, Martin’s arsenal seems like an arch, together with his curveball off by itself.

So too Messick, although he has clearer separation from one pitch to the subsequent.

If I had to decide on, I’d say Messick’s finest pitch is his four-seamer. Which may sound counterintuitive, for a six-pitch starter who solely throws within the low 90s, however this isn’t like most four-seamers.

Messick, being quick and stocky for a pitcher, and having as he does a three-quarters arm angle from a low supply, produces the baseball from an angle hitters don’t see fairly often. Among the many 318 pitchers who’ve thrown 250 or extra pitches this season, Messick is 240th in common vertical launch level. However his common arm angle, 43.1 levels, is one centesimal.

There are 78 pitches with a decrease vertical launch level than Messick, and 99 with the next arm angle, however solely 4 with each. His four-seamer additionally has an inch extra rise and three inches much less arm-side break than the standard fastball of that velocity. So hitters who look fastball and guess proper are going to see this freaky-rising, cutter-like factor coming at them.

And so they don’t hit it effectively. Messick’s four-seamer will get solely 0.3 proportion factors much less whiff fee than Tarik Skubal’s. His four-seamer strikeout fee, 31.4%, is among the many 30 finest in baseball. He’s additionally within the prime 30 in xBA on his four-seamer, and within the prime 15 in xwOBA and HardHit%.

Opponents are hitting simply .170 off Messick’s four-seamer, however right here’s the factor: They’re not hitting higher than .250 off any of his six pitches. The one pitch of his with a HardHit% over 29.0% is his sinker, which has been put in play simply 22 instances.

There are three issues at work right here which have made Messick so laborious to hit. First: His command. Not solely within the sense that he’s not strolling anybody, however within the sense that he can find his varied pitches the place he needs in and across the zone. Pitching is like actual property, mentioned Invoice James: The three most essential issues are location, location, and site.

Second: Messick can change velocity and motion towards each side of the plate. Along with his four-seamer, he’s bought two secondaries with arm-side motion in distinct velocity bands, and three glove-side-breaking secondaries — together with a cutter, which is new for this yr — in three distinct velocity bands. That’s quite a lot of actual property for a hitter to cowl, on three axes.

Particularly as a result of — and right here’s no. 3 — nothing that Messick throws strikes usually. I’ve talked about his fastball’s odd rise-and-cut motion from an odd mixture of launch level and arm angle. It’s not that the fastball has loopy motion in any path; it’s just a bit bizarre.

All of Messick’s pitches are like that. He throws six pitches, every of which breaks in two instructions. All six of his pitches have not less than two inches of variation from the norm on not less than one axis; three of them have not less than two inches of variation on each.

So even when the hitter will get his pitch and instances it proper, he might swing the place a changeup should be and miss the barrel, if not all the bat. Messick’s breaking balls each drop lower than a typical pitch of that velocity, however they each have higher arm-side motion.

Have a look at Messick’s headshot on MLB.com. He’s smirking. And rightly so; that is the face of a man who is aware of he’s about to get one over on whoever steps into the field. It doesn’t look regular, and possibly it received’t work endlessly. However it’s working now, and that’s ok for Cleveland’s functions.