Geraldo Perdomo makes me comfortable. He’s a very good participant with an attention-grabbing ability set, and he looks as if a pleasing particular person. Final yr, he hit .290 with 20 residence runs, 27 stolen bases, and extra walks than strikeouts. Mixed with even enough shortstop protection, you’d suppose that will make him one of the beneficial gamers within the league, and also you’d be proper.
In a world with out Shohei Ohtani, we may’ve had a enjoyable multidirectional NL MVP dialogue involving Perdomo, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Corbin Carroll, and possibly even Paul Skenes. Because it stands, Ohtani gained in a stroll and Perdomo completed fourth. Nevertheless it’s an honor to even be within the dialogue.
What do I need? Extra Perdomo. We form of acquired that final yr with Maikel Garcia’s breakout season, however I wasn’t glad. Final November, I went on a seek for the subsequent Perdomo. I recognized younger gamers with elite contact expertise, elite plate self-discipline, rock-bottom bat pace, and the athleticism to play up the center.
My reasoning was fairly easy: Perdomo and Garcia already had the attention and the hand-eye coordination to turn out to be influence hitters, and each had made that leap after swinging simply onerous sufficient to do harm. The distinction between a Punch-and-Judy hitter and a top-five MVP end might be as delicate as a one or two miles per hour of bat pace.
I discovered three candidates who appeared poised to make the leap: Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, and Caleb Durbin. And I talked about it so much. I heard from mates throughout… not less than two fantasy baseball leagues who reached for a number of of those gamers based mostly on my suggestion. I don’t play fantasy baseball, however I’m in a Diamond Thoughts league that lags one yr behind the actual world, and the Perdometer had a huge impact on our draft. My former podcast co-host Zach Kram swiped Durbin out from underneath my nostril, and I acquired so offended I referred to as the kindest, gentlest man in sports activities media a compound expletive that begins with the letter M. Not my proudest second.
However Zach and I weren’t the one individuals all in favour of Durbin; the Pink Sox acquired the hydrant-shaped third baseman because the centerpiece of a six-player commerce with the Brewers and anointed him the inheritor presumptive to Alex Bregman. On the time, I believed they’d robbed the Brewers blind. (I didn’t know then that Kyle Harrison could be baptized within the holy waters of the Menomonee and emerge sanctified, and with an unhittable breaking ball. Seems it’s harmful to be on the identical web page as Craig Breslow.)
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So Durbin’s not figuring out nice to this point, nevertheless it’s early.
It’s not too early, nevertheless, to take a victory lap over Hicks and Edwards. I’m calling it. I used to be proper — they’re each superior now.
Hicks was completely competent final yr; he posted a 98 wRC+ in 119 video games and 390 plate appearances. He hit for zero energy — a .099 ISO — however he acquired on base at a .346 clip, which is sweet for anybody, particularly a catcher.
As of Thursday morning, Hicks is hitting .295/.354/.527. He set a brand new profession excessive along with his seventh residence run of the yr on April 29, in his twenty ninth look out of 31 whole Marlins video games. He’s cooled off a little bit since then, however in his first 11 video games of Might, he nonetheless has a .162 ISO and two residence runs.
Is Hicks’ offensive breakout a BABIP phantasm? Is he sacrificing that once-pristine contact charge to promote out for dingers? No on each counts. Hicks’ BABIP is simply .259, and his strikeout charge has truly dropped even additional, from 14.4% to eight.2%. That final determine is within the 99th percentile for hitters, as is his 9.6% whiff charge.
Edwards might be nonetheless most well-known in some circles for the unlucky sobriquet Blake Snell lavished upon him in December 2019. Snell wasn’t comfortable that the Rays had traded Tommy Pham (and a really younger Jake Cronenworth) to San Diego; to not fear, Tampa Bay despatched Snell himself that means a yr later.
Satirically, “slap” would’ve been a very good modifier for Edwards’ offensive recreation up till this season. From his debut in 2023 by way of the top of 2025, he performed in 239 video games for the Marlins, through which he registered nearly precisely 1,000 plate appearances. His .298 batting common and .358 on-base proportion made him a beneficial table-setter, and his 63 stolen bases in that span introduced again reminiscences of necessary Marlins infielders of days passed by.
However of the 402 different hitters who batted not less than 500 instances over these three seasons, solely six produced a decrease ISO than Edwards. In nearly two seasons’ value of enjoying time, he produced solely 4 residence runs and whole 49 extra-base hits. A excessive OBP, good baserunning, and positional worth acquired Edwards over 2.0 WAR in every of the previous two seasons, however there’s a restrict to what might be completed by a hitter with so little energy. As Perdomo found earlier than his breakout.
In 43 video games this yr, Edwards has as many residence runs (4) as he hit in his first three seasons within the majors. He’s hitting .318/.406/.484, with the best stroll charge and the bottom strikeout charge of his profession, and he has already put up 1.8 WAR. At his present charge of manufacturing, Edwards goes to cross 2.0 WAR by this time subsequent week, with a brand new profession excessive to comply with quickly after.
Right here’s a enjoyable little bit of trivia: Each Hicks and Edwards nonetheless have terribly gradual bats. The 2 teammates have practically an identical common bat speeds (68.0 mph for Hicks, 67.9 mph for Edwards), putting them within the fifth percentile amongst all hitters. Junior Caminero leads all hitters with an 80.0-mph common swing pace; by the point the Marlins guys have completed dragging their bats by way of the zone, Caminero is already coming again for seconds.
Are the Marlins’ Little Guys Swinging Otherwise?
| Liam Hicks | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.6% | 55.3% | 93.1% | 67.4 | 2.6% | 41.3% | 48.7% |
| 2026 | 24.6% | 65.1% | 97.0% | 68.0 | 1.4% | 41.5% | 52.2% |
| 2025 | 25.6% | 67.7% | 93.5% | 66.9 | 2.4% | 35.7% | 34.2% |
| 2026 | 20.9% | 57.5% | 93.0% | 67.9 | 0.4% | 47.0% | 52.3% |
Supply: Baseball Savant
As you may see on the above desk, each Hicks and Edwards have made delicate enhancements in bat pace, however each have been already to this point to the left aspect of that graph it was like including a “delicate” dab of bitter cream to a scorpion pepper.
The modifications in Hicks’ recreation aren’t fairly as obvious on this desk, so I’ll begin with Edwards. It appears like he’s extra selective this season; if that have been the results of a concerted effort to hunt for his pitch, we’d most likely see a better enhance in quick swing charge. However that’s not likely the case to this point.
It’s necessary to do not forget that Edwards is a switch-hitter, and positive sufficient, he has made modifications to his stance — however solely on one aspect. From the left aspect, the place he has taken three quarters of his swings this season, he’s establishing about 4 inches again within the field in comparison with final yr, and swinging with a markedly increased assault angle — 9 levels, up from 4. Taking the left aspect in isolation, he has improved his very best assault angle charge from 38.9% to 59.6%.
Edwards is swinging the bat more durable, not less than from the left aspect. Quick swing charge is the share of aggressive swings over 75 mph; Edwards has simply fallen right into a methodological hole.
In case you take a look at this chart of his bat pace, final yr and this yr, from each side of the plate, you’ll see that he’s sawed off a bunch of super-slow swings from the left aspect and moved the bell curve proper. That’s the identical advance Perdomo made; the distinction is, Edwards’ quicker swings are coming within the 70-to-75 mph vary, so Baseball Savant’s quick swing bucket doesn’t decide them up.
You most likely additionally seen one thing bizarre about Edwards’ right-handed swing pace graph: It’s acquired two humps. It’s a bimodal distribution, until you’re a camel, through which case it’s Bactrian. So he’s getting extra onerous swings off — simply not quick sufficient to register for quick swing charges — however there are nonetheless loads of cases of him simply sticking the bat on the market and hoping for the very best.
Proper now, Edwards is getting higher outcomes from the precise aspect than from the left, however the underlying numbers make me skeptical that may proceed. He has a 14-degree common launch angle and a 1.46 walk-to-strikeout charge from the left aspect, with a launch angle of -1 levels and a 0.57 walk-to-strikeout charge as a right-handed hitter. He’s genuinely productive as a lefty, however he’s simply staying alive as a righty.
Which is ok, to be sincere. Edwards goes to take most of his at-bats as a left-handed hitter anyway.
Hicks can be swinging the bat a little bit quicker and addressing the ball at a greater angle, however the change in his recreation is visually apparent. Right here’s Hicks’ stance from final yr.
And right here it’s this yr, from the identical middle area digital camera angle.
OK, “apparent” would possibly’ve oversold issues. Take a look at his ft. Within the nonetheless from 2025, Hicks’ proper foot overlaps along with his left heel. In 2026, there’s daylight between the 2. He has opened his stance by 16 levels from 2025 to 2026, which does one or each of the next: It helps you see the ball higher and/or it forces you to hit the ball to the pull aspect.
I can’t converse to the previous, however Hicks is doing the latter. His general pull charge is up 5 proportion factors from final yr, and his in-air pull charge has leapt from 14.9% to 21.6%. (MLB common is 16.8%.) Pull-side liners and fly balls are the place harm will get finished, and Hicks is hitting a ton of them this yr.
I discussed Hicks’ BABIP earlier, however I dedicated a lie of omission in doing so. Hicks is outperforming his xSLG by 71 factors and his xwOBA by 21 factors. I’m not terribly frightened about that, nevertheless, as a result of anticipated stats don’t account for batted ball course, and Hicks is consuming good on low cost pull-side residence runs. He has 9 residence runs, all of them not simply to the pull aspect, however to the precise of the right-center area energy alley. And except one absolute tank that landed midway up the second degree in loanDepot park… truly, only for enjoyable, let’s watch that one.
Jeez, that was a bomb. What was I saying?
Oh, yeah, none of Hicks’ different eight residence runs traveled 400 ft. Once more, that’s completely cool, as a result of it’s solely 335 ft out to straightaway proper in Miami, and that’s the place Hicks hits most of his fly balls.
The facility positive factors that Edwards and Hicks have made this season are modest, by any customary. However for guys with quick swings, nice plate self-discipline, and nice bat management, it doesn’t take a lot energy to show a median hitter into an influence hitter. Simply ask Perdomo or Garcia.