Giants Commerce Patrick Bailey to Guardians as Buster Posey Shakes It up Once more

In his first three seasons, Patrick Bailey carved a distinct segment as one of many sport’s prime defensive catchers, dominating the Statcast defensive leaderboards and successful two Gold Gloves. The event of his offense has lagged, nevertheless, and with the Giants struggling to attain runs and sporting one of many majors’ worst information, they’ve determine they’ll reside with out Bailey’s glovework. On Saturday, they traded the 27-year-old backstop to the Guardians for 23-year-old lefty pitching prospect Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and a Aggressive Stability choose within the upcoming draft.

That is the second season in a row that president of baseball operations Buster Posey has shaken up San Francisco’s roster with an early-season commerce; final 12 months, it was the mid-June acquisition of slugger Rafael Devers in a blockbuster with Boston. You don’t should squint too laborious to just accept that each trades have been geared toward upgrading moribund offenses, however when the Giants dealt for Devers, they have been 11 video games above .500 (41-30), one sport behind the Dodgers within the NL West. They felt they’d landed the offensive cornerstone that had eluded them after unsuccessful pursuits of Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani, a participant who may assist them return to the postseason for the primary time since 2021. This time round, they entered the day of the commerce 15-23, final within the division, and the transfer seems much more tilted towards the long run, as Wilkinson has simply gotten his ft moist in Double-A and the draft choose received’t make a right away impression.

If this commerce had occurred simply previous to the deadline (August 3 this 12 months), it may need been characterised as a white flag, half of a bigger selloff. To those eyes, it’s a shakeup that at worst smacks of panic and at finest locations plenty of religion that Posey — a probable Corridor of Fame catcher who has but to point out comparable prowess as an govt — has discovered a diamond or two within the tough together with his two latest catching acquisitions: Jesus Rodriguez, who got here from the Yankees in final 12 months’s Camilo Doval commerce, and Daniel Susac, who was flipped by the Twins in December after being plucked from the A’s as a Rule 5 choose. Each are 24 years previous and have fewer than 10 video games of main league expertise, with Susac, who turns 25 on Could 14, at present on a rehab project after being sidelined by neuritis in his proper elbow. Eric Haase, a 33-year-old backstop who hit his manner out of a beginning job in Detroit in 2023, began in Saturday’s 13-3 drubbing by the Pirates — San Francisco’s ninth loss in 11 video games — whereas Rodriguez began Sunday’s 7-6 win, which lifted the group’s document to 16-24, nonetheless third worst within the NL.

Undeniably, the Giants aren’t in nice form. They’re final within the majors in runs per sport (3.25) and stroll charge (5.5%, 2.2 factors under the Twenty ninth-ranked Diamondbacks), in a digital tie for final in on-base proportion with the Mets (.287), and second to final in wRC+ (84). The switch-hitting Bailey was serving to to tug the offense down, hitting simply .146/.213/.183 in 89 plate appearances. Together with his 0-for-3 in Sunday’s debut for the Guardians (a 5-4 loss to the Twins), his 13 wRC+ is forward of solely the Reds’ Ke’Bryan Hayes (12 wRC+) for the majors’ lowest among the many 260 hitters with at the least 90 plate appearances.

With a profession line of .230/.287/.340 coming into 2026, Bailey was not at all hitter. His 76 wRC+ from 2023–25 positioned within the eighth percentile amongst gamers with at the least 600 plate appearances, however inside that group, he was the one one to supply at the least 10.0 WAR (10.2) in that span regardless of a wRC+ under 100.

Relative to final season, Bailey has made changes to his swing and his stance on each side of the plate. His swing has much less tilt, his assault angle has decreased, and most noticeably, he’s closed his stance whereas batting left-handed (from 11 levels open to zero), and opened it up extraordinarily whereas batting right-handed (from eight levels open to 25 levels open). From each side, he’s swinging more durable, together with his general quick swing charge practically doubling, from 15.8% general to 29.5% and his present averages of 72.7 mph from the left and 73.3 mph from the correct each up over one mph from final 12 months. However whereas he’s hit the ball more durable as his swing charge, chase charge, whiff charge, and strikeout charge have all decreased (the final down from a career-high 29.4% to 25.0%), he’s not getting a lot bang for his buck:

Bailey’s anticipated numbers have improved over final season, although they’re wanting his marks from 2023 and ’24. The gaps between his precise and anticipated numbers are second solely to Hayes’ in all three classes. A minimum of a few of that owes to the truth that Bailey’s general groundball charge has spiked from 38.5% to 46.7%, greater than offsetting his elevated pull charge (from 33.2% to 38.2%), as a result of he’s not elevating these balls. His pulled air charge has dropped from 17.1% to 13.3%, whereas his pulled groundball charge has risen from 16.1% to 25.0%.

Defensively, Bailey stays elite. He at present leads the majors in FRV (6) and Statcast’s model of framing runs (5), one thing he’s finished yearly since debuting in 2023. His 83 FRV and 69 Statcast framing runs for the reason that begin of that season are each 32 greater than the second-ranked Alejandro Kirk. By our metrics, his 63.7 FRM is sort of as far forward of his new backup in Cleveland, Austin Hedges (34.7), and his 54 DRS (the non-framing model) is 12 greater than second-ranked Freddy Fermin. That defensive prowess has made Bailey the majors’ fifth-most priceless catcher general from 2023–26, behind solely Cal Raleigh, William Contreras, Will Smith, and Adley Rutschman, all of whom contribute considerably greater than Bailey on offense.

As Posey’s first spring coaching on the helm started in February 2025, in accordance with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, he emphasised that Bailey’s statistical dominance wasn’t sufficient. “Truthfully, my focus in that dialog was, ‘Patty, firstly, your duty is to steer the employees… And that’s not simply framing metrics or what number of runners you’re throwing out. It’s really to steer the employees.’ That’s the place I need his focus to be,” mentioned Posey on the time.

The Giants reportedly mulled the potential of new supervisor Tony Vitello calling pitches from the dugout as he did at Tennessee, and because the Marlins are doing this season. Bailey was not a fan of the concept, and wasn’t alone amongst Giants who pushed again. Employees ace Logan Webb, who was one of many gamers towards the concept, praised Bailey’s preparation and game-calling, and even Vitello expressed reservations about whether or not it will work.

Nonetheless, Baggarly pointed to a few incidents in an April 30 doubleheader sweep by the Phillies the place Bailey’s game-calling significantly backfired. He known as 9 consecutive sinkers from Ryan Walker to Bryson Stott within the opener, the final of which was hit for a game-tying triple, and known as seven consecutive splitters from Keaton Winn to Kyle Schwarber within the nightcap, the final of which was hit for a game-tying double. The Phillies walked off San Francisco in each video games, with Stott scoring the successful run within the opener.

The Giants might have one thing with their two younger catchers, regardless of their inexperience. Each the Yankees, who signed Rodriguez out of Venezuela in 2018, and the Giants, who acquired him together with three different prospects in a July 31 commerce for Doval, have used him in a utility capability; final 12 months, between Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Sacramento, he hit a mixed .307/.393/.403 (118 wRC+) whereas catching 60 video games and enjoying 23 at third base. This 12 months at Sacramento, he caught 16 video games, performed left area for 5 — one thing he did 12 occasions at Excessive-A Hudson Valley in 2024 — and second base for 2. He debuted within the majors final Monday, and hit his first residence run on Tuesday as a part of a 2-for-3 evening towards the Padres; he went 2-for-3 once more on Wednesday whereas beginning in proper area. Final 12 months, he acquired a 40+ FV grade from our prospect group as a 3rd baseman whereas being described as “extremely uncooked in any respect aspects of catching,” however Eric Longenhagen’s newest report suggests Rodriguez has continued to enhance and is perhaps a forty five FV:

That is an exceptionally fast athlete with below-average pure arm energy who too steadily fumbles his change. That’s one thing one may fairly mission Rodriguez to do. To the attention, he’s an above-average framer and a supply had him at +4 framing runs all of final 12 months in simply 60 video games as a result of he was additionally enjoying different positions. Although his throwing wants polish and his ball-blocking (under common, a number of lengthy rebounds) is perhaps restricted by his lack of measurement, framing is an important talent of the three, and Rodriguez may find yourself being actually good at it. Nice timing, deft arms, and plus barrel really feel spearhead a plus-contact skillset regardless of below-average bat velocity, energy, and plate self-discipline.

Rodriguez has a cool stance and massive actions within the batter’s field, however he tracks pitches rather well, his arms have a tendency to search out the baseball, and he finally ends up spraying all types of line drive contact into play. Have been he not so chase inclined, this could be the form of participant who’d mission to outhit his uncooked energy in video games, as his really feel for the barrel is excellent. That is the place I feel the statistical projections are somewhat off base, in assuming Rodriguez’s plate self-discipline (he has tended to run double-digit stroll charges) will translate. His extra granular chase knowledge (32% general, 51% with two strikes, 40% towards breaking balls) is just not so dangerous to fret that he’ll find yourself struggling to the diploma that Keibert Ruiz has, however I feel he’s extra more likely to be a .250/.310/.350-type hitter than the .275/.335/.375 one ZiPS thinks he’s.

Longenhagen additionally supplied a supercut of Rodriguez’s latest framing:

Susac, the nineteenth choose of the 2022 draft, is a 40-FV prospect who hit .275/.349/.483 (94 wRC+) with 18 homers at Triple-A Las Vegas final 12 months. Brendan Gawlowski wrote about him when he was taken in the Rule 5 draft final December:

The Athletics’ first-rounder out of Arizona again in 2022, Susac was seen as a high-floor choice on the time resulting from his skill to catch. He has good arms, reportedly works nicely with the employees, and ought to be at the least a median defensive catcher. The bat hasn’t come alongside in any respect, although. Regardless of respectable surface-level stats, Susac is overly aggressive, and his gradual bat and surround-the-ball swing are unlikely to translate nicely towards elite arms. He initiatives as a backup or third catcher relying on how a lot you just like the protection. Would possibly a household connection have performed a job? Susac is the youthful brother of Andrew Susac, who was Giants GM Buster Posey’s backup at one level.

Susac homered twice for Sacramento as a chosen hitter on Thursday and caught seven innings on Sunday in his first rehab look behind the plate. He may return in some unspecified time in the future this week.

As for the Giants’ return, the Vancouver-born Wilkinson is a 45-FV prospect who lists at 6-foot-1 and 250 kilos and has the pleasant nickname “Tugboat” due to “a slow-moving ‘heater’ that’s pulling his whole profile,” as our prospect group wrote in January. A tenth-round choose in 2023 out of Central Arizona School, he posted a 4.24 ERA, a 4.17 FIP, and a 26.2% strikeout charge in 104 innings final season at Excessive-A Lake County. In 28 1/3 innings at Double-A Akron this 12 months, he ran a 1.59 ERA and a 2.61 FIP with a 33.6% strikeout charge. Right here’s some latest video:

And Longenhagen’s replace:

He’s nonetheless sitting 90, however his heater continues to play like an elite pitch, producing a 37% miss charge (together with his WBC outings for Staff Canada) thus far this 12 months. As a result of the Guardians promoted him fairly conservatively, it’s been robust to know the way his fastball would do towards good hitters, however between the WBC and now six Double-A begins, it certain seems to be prefer it’s going to. He’s going to have the ability to pitch backwards off backdoor sliders and elevate his fastball to complete guys off, and the identical mechanical looseness that helps cover his fastball will do the identical for his changeup. It’s not as in the event that they’ve traded the subsequent Parker Messick (Tugboat’s changeup high quality isn’t fairly that good), however a number of the misleading parts and elegance of athleticism (this can be a husky man, however he’s tremendous cell) are the identical. If the truth that he sits 90 seems to be an issue towards massive league hitters — which can stay a risk till Wilkinson proves it’s not — then I nonetheless suppose we’re a Yusmeiro Petit-type lengthy reliever. Extra doubtless, Wilkinson seems to be like group’s no. 4/5 starter, the kind who’s on the perimeter of creating its playoff rotation.

In the meantime, the Giants additionally get the Twenty ninth choose of a deeper-than-normal draft, and with it a $3.2 million bonus allotment. Mix that with their $9 million allotment for the fourth-overall choose, and all of a sudden the Giants have the pliability to reallocate cash to pay above-slot values for some later picks.

As for the Guardians, at 21-21 they by some means lead the AL Central. Bo Naylor, who began 23 of the group’s first 40 video games earlier than being optioned to the minors on Saturday, has began nearly as slowly as Bailey, hitting .143/.200/.238 (23 wRC+) with two residence runs in 90 plate appearances. His protection has been extra strong than spectacular (-0.6 FRM, 0 FRV), and he has minor league choices remaining, in contrast to the 33-year-old Hedges, who owns a profession 51 wRC+ however is at present hitting an improbably strong .294/.351/.431 (119 wRC+) in 57 plate appearances. (Naylor will ultimately be assigned to Triple-A, however the Guardians are first sending him to their advanced in Goodyear, Arizona, “for a mini reset with out the each day rigors of sport exercise,” in accordance with Zack Meisel of The Athletic.) The Guardians do have a kind, as they’ve spent over a decade fielding Bailey-ish catchers, gentle hitters who’re at the least strong defenders, if not essentially among the many sport’s elite:

Solely as soon as since 2020 has a Guardians catcher reached 2.0 WAR in a season: 2023, when the rookie Naylor hit 11 residence runs with a 123 wRC+ in 67 video games for two.1 WAR. Even together with his gentle offense, Bailey’s protection affords a possible improve, and as an alternative of the strain that comes with each filling Posey’s sizable sneakers and having him trying over his shoulder, Bailey can have one other former catcher, Stephen Vogt, as his supervisor.

Posey is probably going on his method to Cooperstown, however he’s nonetheless pretty inexperienced as an govt. Two of his greatest swings since taking up on the finish of the 2024 season – the Devers commerce and the hiring of Vitello straight from the faculty ranks — haven’t panned out but, in that Devers is at present carrying a 79 wRC+, and Vitello acquired off to a tough begin in speaking together with his group and stays below heavy scrutiny. With the Giants enduring their worst begin since 2017 and threatening to increase their postseason drought, Posey has taken one other massive swing with an early shakeup. We’ll see if this one connects.