Mickey Moniak, Your NL Slugging Chief (For Now)

With Thursday’s 6-2 win over the Mets, the Rockies snapped a six-game dropping streak and lifted their document to 15-23, momentarily escaping the excellence of proudly owning at the least a share of the Nationwide League’s worst document, which is at the moment shared by these Mets and the Giants (14-23). If they’re once more one of many majors’ worst groups, the Rox are at the least not on tempo to method final 12 months’s 119 losses, nor are they solely devoid of brilliant spots, together with catcher Hunter Goodman, starter Tomoyuki Sugano, and relievers Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela. However by far their brightest spot these days has been the play of Mickey Moniak. Now in his second season with the crew, Moniak leads the league in slugging share (.700), ranks second in wRC+ (176), and is third in residence runs (11) regardless of barely having sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

Alas, the 18-game hitting streak Moniak rode into Thursday got here to an finish in that victory, as he went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and a stroll. He’d barely saved the streak alive on Wednesday night time, going hitless in his first 4 plate appearances. He acquired beneath a pair of hard-hit balls in opposition to Mets starter Freddy Peralta, producing a popup to shortstop and a fly out to heart area, each routine, and struck out twice, as soon as in opposition to a excessive Peralta fastball and as soon as in opposition to a low-and-away Brooks Raley sweeper. By the point he got here to the plate for the fifth time, the Rockies have been down 10-4 with one out within the ninth. Moniak ripped a scorching smash 106.7 mph simply to the left of pitcher Sean Manaea and previous the outstretched glove of second baseman Marcus Semien as he dove to his proper.

Throughout Thursday’s recreation, Moniak’s contact wasn’t almost as stable, although he nearly saved the streak alive with a comfortable liner. The ball’s 64.3-mph exit velocity and 21-degree launch angle made it the type of flare that really lands for successful as a rule, with simply sufficient oomph to recover from the infield dust; the anticipated batting common on such balls is .550, however Semien did a effective job chasing that one down.

It simply wasn’t Moniak’s day, so needed to settle merely for matching his earlier private greatest, an 18-game hitting streak that he ran off from July 2–July 28, 2023 whereas enjoying for the Angels. It was nonetheless the Rockies’ longest streak since 2022, when Brendan Rodgers hit safely in 20 straight video games from Could 9 to June 2.

Throughout the streak, the almost 28-year-old Moniak — his birthday is Could 13 — not solely lifted his slash line to .318/.367/.700, he additionally lastly reached the plate appearances threshold to formally qualify for the league lead in price stats. He needed to play catch-up as a result of he missed Colorado’s first six video games as a consequence of a sprained proper ring finger, suffered whereas diving again to first base throughout a spring coaching recreation. He entered Wednesday main the NL in slugging share with the assistance of a single phantom at-bat, however now he’s the official chief, and can also be ninth in batting common.

It’s been a powerful and unexpectedly robust begin for Moniak, the previous no. 1 total decide (2016, by the Phillies) on whom the trade collectively whiffed, as none of his instruments turned out to be above common. Free-swinging and pull-happy, he’s landed in a spot that significantly rewards his tendency to hit the ball within the air, even when it’s a part of a package deal that limits him to a platoon position and forces his crew to smile and bear his protection.

Extra on all of that shortly, but when Moniak hasn’t solely panned out, he’s hardly alone among the many no. 1 picks of this millennium:

Limiting the comparability to place gamers chosen first on this millennium previous to Moniak, solely Younger and Beckham fared worse. Each at the moment are retired, and on the different finish of the spectrum, the jury is clearly nonetheless out on Bazzana, who made his main league debut on April 28. That mentioned, Moniak has turned the nook in ways in which have eluded some more moderen picks, and he does have the best 2026 WAR from among the many 9 lively gamers above (1.4).

On the time the Phillies selected Moniak out of La Costa Canyon Excessive Faculty in Carlsbad, California, he was considered fairly favorably. Baseball America had ranked him because the fifth-best prospect getting into the draft, writing partly, “He’s a hitter with really feel for the barrel that evokes comparisons to Christian Yelich, a fellow SoCal prep outfield product, and stable energy to the gaps.” MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis known as Moniak a participant with “one of many highest flooring within the Draft,” and added, “He’s a surefire up-the-middle-player in a Draft that doesn’t have lots of them. Moniak goes to hit. He’s going to run. He’s going to play a very good heart area.”

I went into a lot higher element with Moniak’s again story when he was in the course of that 2023 hitting streak, however lengthy story brief, issues by no means clicked for him with the Phillies. He netted -0.8 WAR in 47 video games for them whereas hitting an unfathomable .129/.214/.172 (7 wRC+) in 105 plate appearances from 2020–22. On August 2, 2022, he was traded to the Angels, together with Jadiel Sanchez, for Noah Syndergaard, who was nearly to embark upon the ultimate productive stretch of his profession. Moniak didn’t do a lot in 19 post-trade main league video games that season, however after spending the primary six weeks of 2023 at Triple-A Salt Lake Metropolis, he was known as up and went on a tear for about two and a half months, hitting .313/.346/.567 (147 wRC+) from mid-Could by means of the tip of July. Inevitably, he tailed off, producing only a 53 wRC+ the remainder of the way in which and ending at .280/.307/.495 (115 wRC+) and 1.8 WAR in 85 video games.

What was significantly exceptional was that Moniak acquired to that respectable-looking batting line with a ridiculous .397 BABIP (third amongst gamers with at the least 300 plate appearances), a 35.0% strikeout price (seventh), and only a 2.8% stroll price (second lowest). Amongst that 300-PA group, his 46.3% chase price and 21.9% swinging strike price have been each the best. These extremes made sustaining that stage of manufacturing unlikely, and even whereas being shunted right into a platoon position that protected him from lefties, Moniak crashed again to Earth in 2024, hitting .219/.266/.380. Whereas he reduce his chase price and his swinging strike charges, together with his stroll and strikeout charges enhancing (to five.0% and 27.3%, respectively), he didn’t hit the ball fairly as arduous, and he struggled in opposition to four-seam fastballs.

After a tough spring coaching, the Angels — a crew not precisely overloaded with expertise — launched Moniak in late March 2025. The Rockies snapped him up a few days later and continued to platoon him; he began 103 video games in opposition to righties and 10 in opposition to lefties, spending time in any respect three outfield spots with a excessive of 58 begins (and 72 whole appearances) in proper area, and DH’d as effectively. On an totally dreadful crew that misplaced extra video games than all however the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, 2024 White Sox, and 1962 Mets, Moniak hit a decent .270/.306/.518 (110 wRC+) and once more reduce his chase and swinging strike charges whereas putting second on the crew in residence runs (24), RBI (68), and WAR (0.6). That final determine, in fact, doesn’t reduce it; Moniak was DH-caliber within the outfield, with mixed totals of -23 DRS (the worst amongst all outfielders by 5 full runs) and -12 FRV (merely tied with Nick Castellanos for third worst).

The Rockies have used Moniak equally this season, with 26 of his 27 begins coming in opposition to righties. He’s began 13 occasions in left area, eight in proper, 4 at DH, and two in heart, and he’s already within the purple defensively (-3 DRS, -1 FRV), although his Statcast vary and arm scores have been a lot nearer to common.

Protection apart, Moniak has not solely continued to take to Coors Subject in a serious method, he’s fared significantly better on the street than he did final 12 months, albeit in a really small pattern:

Extra basically than that, Moniak has made some changes to his swing and is hitting the ball more durable, within the air extra, and to his pull facet extra usually. Sound acquainted? Primarily based on Statcast knowledge that goes again to the second half of 2023, Moniak has step by step closed off his stance. He’s gained a little bit of bat velocity since coming to Colorado, and his intercept level has gotten farther out entrance:

Making contact farther out entrance means a higher likelihood of placing the ball within the air, and of hitting it to the pull facet, and you may see Moniak has incrementally improved in these areas whereas enjoying in an setting the place the payoff for these enhancements is as excessive because it will get. On the main league stage, Moniak has at all times been fairly pull-happy, however he’s gone from splitting these balls to the pull facet fairly evenly between the bottom and the air to just about doubling his ratio in favor of the latter:

How a lot of a distinction does that make? First check out the splits on these pull-side balls:

The anticipated slugging share on these pulled balls as soon as they’re off the bottom is normally 700 or 800 factors increased, however because of the elevated launch angle, that hole is about 1100 factors proper now — and even then, Moniak is outdoing these expectations by a rustic mile. So though his total exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit charges, and anticipated stats are in step with what they have been final 12 months…

… the additional six levels in launch angle, with that pull frequency, have helped him outdo his anticipated stats to such an excessive diploma that his gaps are every the majors’ largest of their respective classes.

Is all of that sustainable? In all probability not, at the least to not that diploma. Moniak’s 6.7% stroll price and 25.0% strikeout price aren’t as excessive as his earlier marks, however he’s nonetheless chasing 41.4% of pitches outdoors the zone and whiffing on 29.3% of his swings. I anticipate to see pitchers reap the benefits of his free-swinging method by throwing him fewer strikes, significantly inside, the place he can’t simply pull the ball honest. Nonetheless, it’s enjoyable to see him in an setting the place he’s completely raking, and for the Rockies, a crew that doesn’t have many causes to look at, that’s sufficient.