I don’t suppose many would quibble with me too harshly if I characterised the final two seasons for the Atlanta Braves as dreary disappointments. In 2024, the Braves have been typically believed to problem the Dodgers for the title of greatest staff in baseball. This held true for about six weeks, however for the remainder of the season, they suffered myriad accidents and performed .500 ball, barely hanging onto a wild card spot earlier than shortly being dispatched by the Padres. Going into 2025 with the hope for a more healthy, bounce-back season, nothing of the kind occurred. Atlanta completed at 76-86, the franchise’s first shedding season since 2017. Expectations coming into this season have been extra muted. Whereas the Braves have been anticipated to be aggressive (the FanGraphs projections have been extra optimistic than ZiPS), the thrill was definitely dampened in comparison with the earlier two years.
Up to now in 2026, the Braves have defied the pundits and computer systems, dominating the NL East and sporting the most effective report in baseball, at 25-11. Their 8 1/2-game lead within the NL East isn’t an insurmountable one, nevertheless it’s fairly spectacular for this level within the season. No different division chief has greater than a two-game lead proper now! As crucially, the 2 groups anticipated to be Atlanta’s fiercest competitors, the Phillies and Mets, are a bit farther behind, at 9 1/2 and 11 1/2 video games again, respectively. Naturally, the success of the Braves and the struggles of Philadelphia and New York have modified how the ultimate standings mission to shake out.
ZiPS Median Projected Standings – NL East
| Staff | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 93 | 69 | — | .574 | 68.4% | 17.2% | 85.6% | 9.7% | 100.8 | 85.7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85 | 77 | 8 | .525 | 20.8% | 31.9% | 52.7% | 4.8% | 92.3 | 78.0 |
| New York Mets | 79 | 83 | 14 | .488 | 5.8% | 17.5% | 23.3% | 1.3% | 85.6 | 71.9 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 | 86 | 17 | .469 | 4.8% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 0.6% | 84.6 | 70.0 |
| Washington Nationals | 67 | 95 | 26 | .414 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 73.5 | 59.5 |
That’s fairly a sea change from the begin of the season. After all, Atlanta isn’t projected to maintain taking part in this properly the remainder of the way in which. We’re solely somewhat over a month into the season, and we should always count on some regression from the Braves as they play extra video games.
However simply because issues will normalize some doesn’t imply that nothing has modified. I’m not satisfied that Dominic Smith is a 157 wRC+ man, or that Martín Pérez is the primary individual in historical past to determine the key to sustaining a sub-.200 BABIP, however there are different issues about this staff that I’m fairly able to consider. Matt Olson has had very massive seasons earlier than, and when wholesome, Chris Sale is without doubt one of the greatest pitchers in baseball. Ozzie Albies isn’t going to hit .330 for the season, however he did amass the second-most WAR as a second baseman from 2018 to 2023, behind solely Jose Altuve, so now we have seen sufficient from him up to now to consider this can be a true comeback marketing campaign reasonably than an early-season mirage.
To get a greater concept of what’s actual and what’s pretend, listed here are the ZiPS projections for the hitters at present on Atlanta’s Depth Charts roster, in comparison with their preseason projections.
ZiPS Projections – Braves Hitters Now vs. Preseason
Even being skeptical of some gamers, there are much more advancers than decliners right here. Of all main league hitters at present projected to get plate appearances over the remainder of the season, the Braves have 9 of the highest 100, greater than you’d count on from random probability. Solely three gamers — Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski — have taken massive hits, however they’re nonetheless projected to be actual contributors, although I’m a bit apprehensive about Riley personally.
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How does that evaluate to different groups? Utilizing the rest-of-season Depth Charts taking part in time projections and making use of each the up-to-date projections and the preseason ones to that projected taking part in time, we are able to get an concept of which groups have had one thing change and which groups haven’t.
ZiPS Projections – Staff Hitters Now vs. Preseason
| Title | Relaxation-of-Season wRC+ | Preseason wRC+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 112.2 | 108.9 | 3.3 |
| Astros | 107.5 | 105.3 | 2.1 |
| Cardinals | 100.9 | 99.3 | 1.6 |
| Yankees | 115.8 | 114.4 | 1.4 |
| Cubs | 111.4 | 110.1 | 1.3 |
| Guardians | 102.3 | 101.1 | 1.2 |
| Tigers | 106.0 | 105.0 | 1.0 |
| Pirates | 103.8 | 103.2 | 0.6 |
| Marlins | 100.1 | 99.5 | 0.6 |
| White Sox | 98.2 | 97.7 | 0.4 |
| Nationals | 94.9 | 94.6 | 0.3 |
| Rays | 99.3 | 99.2 | 0.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 102.6 | 102.5 | 0.1 |
| Dodgers | 120.3 | 120.3 | 0.1 |
| Brewers | 103.9 | 103.9 | 0.0 |
| Mariners | 112.2 | 112.9 | -0.7 |
| Angels | 97.9 | 98.5 | -0.7 |
| Rockies | 91.5 | 92.3 | -0.7 |
| Royals | 101.9 | 102.7 | -0.8 |
| Blue Jays | 106.2 | 107.1 | -0.9 |
| Orioles | 112.9 | 113.9 | -0.9 |
| Twins | 104.6 | 105.9 | -1.3 |
| Athletics | 108.6 | 110.1 | -1.5 |
| Reds | 99.8 | 101.5 | -1.8 |
| Rangers | 105.4 | 107.3 | -1.9 |
| Phillies | 106.8 | 108.7 | -1.9 |
| Padres | 107.5 | 109.7 | -2.2 |
| Pink Sox | 101.2 | 103.5 | -2.3 |
| Giants | 104.3 | 107.3 | -3.0 |
| Mets | 110.3 | 114.4 | -4.0 |
Atlanta’s offensive projection has improved greater than that of another staff, so it isn’t simply smoke and mirrors producing these outcomes. On the danger of veering off matter, the 14-22 Astros’ having the second-most improved offensive projection is sort of a clumsy information level for the staff’s struggling pitching workers. Conversely, even should you’re typically assured that the Phillies and Mets (and Pink Sox) will proper the ship, the projections are much less optimistic than they have been in March.
Let’s repeat the train with the pitchers:
ZiPS Projections – Braves Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
ZiPS is assured that Atlanta’s offensive enhancements are reliable, nevertheless it’s significantly much less so in relation to the pitching workers. I’ve already made a crack about Pérez, however ZiPS can also be skeptical about Bryce Elder’s strides. Total, it nonetheless sees the rotation as dangerous, although it’s extra bullish on a number of of the staff’s relievers.
(For these curious, probably the most improved hitter and pitcher in baseball, from a projection standpoint, is Chase DeLauter and Mason Miller, respectively.)
ZiPS Projections – Staff Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
| Staff | Relaxation-of-Season ERA+ | Preseason ERA+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 102.9 | 100.3 | 2.5 |
| Yankees | 104.3 | 101.9 | 2.4 |
| Phillies | 115.5 | 113.3 | 2.2 |
| Brewers | 105.5 | 103.3 | 2.2 |
| Dodgers | 111.4 | 109.6 | 1.8 |
| Blue Jays | 109.2 | 107.4 | 1.8 |
| Mets | 105.0 | 103.3 | 1.7 |
| Marlins | 101.3 | 99.8 | 1.5 |
| Angels | 95.2 | 94.0 | 1.3 |
| White Sox | 91.6 | 90.4 | 1.2 |
| Pirates | 111.5 | 110.5 | 1.1 |
| Rockies | 96.5 | 95.5 | 1.0 |
| Tigers | 107.8 | 107.0 | 0.8 |
| Cubs | 100.2 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Mariners | 104.7 | 104.5 | 0.1 |
| Rangers | 95.5 | 95.4 | 0.0 |
| Twins | 102.7 | 102.8 | -0.2 |
| Braves | 106.9 | 107.2 | -0.4 |
| Giants | 105.2 | 105.6 | -0.4 |
| Guardians | 109.4 | 109.9 | -0.5 |
| Reds | 96.3 | 96.8 | -0.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 106.8 | 107.4 | -0.6 |
| Orioles | 101.6 | 102.3 | -0.7 |
| Astros | 104.3 | 105.3 | -1.0 |
| Athletics | 94.2 | 95.2 | -1.0 |
| Rays | 105.1 | 106.3 | -1.2 |
| Cardinals | 97.7 | 99.0 | -1.4 |
| Nationals | 89.8 | 91.1 | -1.4 |
| Royals | 101.0 | 102.6 | -1.6 |
| Pink Sox | 108.5 | 110.6 | -2.1 |
It’s sort of humorous to see the Phillies so excessive up on this listing, however they’ve allowed a .349 BABIP over 35 video games, a freakishly excessive quantity that may’t presumably be sustained. One can see why the Yankees and Padres have been so robust within the early going, although their success is a narrative for one more day.
Is the NL East race truly over? The projections and Betteridge’s legislation of headlines say no. However it’s true that the Braves have flipped the script. It’s not as over for the Mets or Phillies because the vibes point out, but when they’ll mount a comeback, they higher begin pretty quickly. If not, they’ll shortly run out of calendar.