I don’t pay an excessive amount of consideration to the standings in April. I take a look at them, after all, however that’s extra a matter of routine than a need to study one thing substantial. It’s onerous for groups to drag forward of the pack this early within the season, and I’d somewhat not learn an excessive amount of into the truth that, say, the banged-up Blue Jays are a number of video games beneath .500, or that not one of the 5 groups within the NL Central has a dropping file. It takes time for these items to type themselves out.
And but, upon checking the standings Friday morning, I discovered myself pondering the importance of what I noticed: particularly, that solely three groups within the American League had a profitable file. After a dizzying 20 minutes of digging, I lifted my head from my laptop computer in a daze, questioning how on earth I ended up observing Baseball Reference’s playoff odds for the 14-18 White Sox. I believe seeing the quantity 16.1% is what snapped me out of my stupor. (For what it’s price, our Playoff Odds gave the South Siders a 2.2% probability to make the postseason, double their odds on Opening Day.) Anyway, about these three AL golf equipment above .500, the Yankees (20-11) have been anticipated to be among the best groups in baseball, so their place atop the standings wasn’t shocking, however the sturdy begins of the Rays (18-12) and Athletics (17-14) caught me a bit off guard. I believed Tampa Bay was destined for final place when the season started, and our Playoff Odds agreed, projecting the staff to complete with 79.7 wins and giving it a 28.9% shot to succeed in the postseason. Getting into Might, the Rays have solely added about two wins to their median projection (81.9), however they now have a forty five.6% probability of creating the playoffs. In the meantime, I believed the A’s can be higher this 12 months, however higher meant perhaps a third-place end within the AL West and an out of doors shot to snag the ultimate AL Wild Card spot. Nonetheless, I figured they have been extra probably nonetheless a 12 months or two away from true rivalry. Our preseason Playoff Odds tabbed them for 78 wins and a 21.4% shot on the playoffs. Now, they’re as much as a projected 81.3 wins and 43.1% odds. I nonetheless don’t assume both staff will play postseason baseball this 12 months; based on each their Pythagorean and BaseRuns information, the Rays have performed extra like a .500 staff than one which’s on tempo to win 97 video games, whereas the A’s merely don’t have sufficient pitching. Bear in mind, it’s solely the beginning of Might. There’s a lot extra baseball nonetheless to be performed.
OK, that’s sufficient concerning the Rays and A’s on this week’s mailbag. Immediately, we’ll be answering your questions on how good Shohei Ohtani can be at basketball, whether or not James Wooden is among the greatest lefty batters ever at hitting the ball the opposite method, which batter has essentially the most hits towards a pitcher with out recording an out, and what would occur if ZiPS forgot about 2020. However earlier than we get to all of that, I’d prefer to remind you that this mailbag is unique to FanGraphs Members. In the event you aren’t but a Member and want to hold studying, you possibly can join a Membership right here. It’s one of the best ways to each expertise the location and assist our employees, and it comes with a bunch of different nice advantages. Additionally, should you’d prefer to ask a query for an upcoming mailbag, ship me an e-mail at mailbag@fangraphs.com.