I’ve been fascinated by Caleb Kilian for fairly some time. Since 2021, to be exact, when he put collectively a blinding 80 innings of minor league work for the Giants after which acquired traded to the Cubs in a deal for Kris Bryant. On the time, Kilian was basically a lottery ticket, an eighth-round choose in 2019 who was previous for his degree. However man, these 80 innings have been simply the form of innings I like – nice command fueling each a pristine stroll fee and a ton of strikeouts. I filed a psychological observe to maintain my eye on him: Low-stuff high-command guys typically pop with a change of surroundings, no less than in my head.
That didn’t transpire in Chicago. Kilian acquired a cup of espresso in 2022 and one other one in 2023, however his stroll fee ballooned as he reached again for extra velo towards harder competitors, each at Triple-A and within the majors. After which a shoulder pressure value him half of the 2024 season. He returned for 2025 and located himself in minor league limbo as he transitioned to the bullpen; the Cubs launched after which re-signed him as a consequence of roster concerns, and he hit minor league free company after the season. He signed a minor league cope with the Giants over the winter, now as a full-fledged reliever. And that’s the place the meat of this text begins.
The early e book on Kilian was an ordinary one: plus command, large arsenal, however no true out pitch and below-average velocity. In his time with the Cubs, nonetheless, that modified. By 2024, Kilian was touching 100 at occasions, however we graded his command as solely common. In different phrases, his outcomes and scouting report matched: He was throwing tougher, nevertheless it wasn’t working higher.
That’s a protracted introduction a couple of man at the moment rocking 0.0 WAR in 2026, and -0.1 profession WAR. However he’s additionally hanging out 30% of opposing batters to date this 12 months, and he has a 0.75 ERA. (Sure, superb, a 3.88 FIP, a 3.88 xFIP, a 2.67 xERA, and a 3.69 SIERA aren’t fairly so complimentary.) And regardless of a ghastly 15% stroll fee, each of our pitch fashions suppose that his command has been above common this 12 months. I needed to know extra.
The important thing to this new type of Kilian? His fastball. The best technique to present you what’s modified is with a desk:
Caleb Kilian’s Fastball By 12 months
| 12 months | Velo (mph) | IVB (in.) | Vertical Drop (in) | PitchingBot Stuff | Stuff+ Stuff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 94.6 | 12.4 | 18.1 | 50 | 86 |
| 2023 | 93.6 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 37 | 74 |
| 2024 | 93.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 29 | 73 |
| 2026 | 97.0 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 62 | 107 |
Yeah, because it seems, throwing the ball three ticks tougher whereas additionally including trip, with the results of making your fastball drop 5.5 inches much less on its means house, is fairly good. You’re not supposed to have the ability to do this! The slower you throw, the extra time spin has so as to add induced vertical break. However Kilian is spinning the ball a lot better than he used to (his spin/velocity ratio has spiked from 22.5 to 25.0), and he’s turned a previously mopey fastball right into a weapon.
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To make certain, it’s a really unusual weapon. Batters are making a ton of contact towards his four-seamer to date this 12 months. That contact has been fairly poor, although, with loads of no-hope grounders and popups. Whereas a .125 BABIP is clearly unsustainable, the general energy suppression is smart to me; he’s lacking the fats a part of the bat very often. That explains his sterling 2.67 xERA, which measures contact high quality probabilistically slightly than utilizing precise batted ball outcomes.
And whereas batters are seeing the fastball properly sufficient to place the bat on the ball incessantly, they’re taking it for referred to as strikes roughly 20% of the time, means up from Kilian’s earlier profession numbers. His previous fastball was so tempting that batters couldn’t assist however swing. His new fastball is inflicting them some doubt, and that’s utterly modified his sport.
Kilian has by no means thrown the next proportion of his pitches whereas forward within the rely. He’s by no means thrown a decrease proportion of his pitches whereas behind within the rely. None of that’s notably stunning – he had a 5.32 FIP, a 6.03 xFIP, and a 9.22 ERA in restricted massive league motion earlier than this 12 months. However he’s additionally gone from fairly poor in these classes to above main league common. His fastball has gone from getting him into hassle to setting him up for achievement. And after he’s arrange, he has a brand new plan of assault: his magnificent curveball.
Kilian used to characteristic a slider, a curveball, and a changeup in roughly equal portions to enhance his heater. Understanding of the bullpen, nonetheless, he’s altered his pitch combine considerably. In 2026, he’s leaning on his curveball to the exclusion of different secondaries; he’s used a curve 30% of the time, a tough slider 14% of the time, and he hasn’t thrown a changeup in any respect.
That curveball was once a strike-stealing lollipop. It sat within the mid-70s, and he ran zone charges approaching 50% with it in each minor and main league play, freezing batters early in counts earlier than utilizing different choices to get strikeouts. This 12 months, he’s utilizing it as a hammer. He’s throwing it roughly 5 miles an hour tougher and leaving the zone much more usually. His zone fee with it this 12 months is a piddling 25%, or 147th out of the 152 pitchers who’ve thrown 25 curves.
By throwing the curve tougher and bouncing it extra usually, he has remodeled the pitch. Within the strike zone, the angles don’t play properly. Gradual curves usually don’t; the decrease they’re aimed, the steeper an angle they’re falling at after they attain house plate. That’s superb in the event you don’t count on batters to swing, in fact; the entire level of many looping curves is to short-circuit hitters’ minds right into a take. However with two strikes, that’s not taking place. Then again, when Kilian bounces the curveball, that is taking place:
Very often, actually:
Fairly usually:
These are good hitters swinging at dangerous pitches. However you may perceive what they’re pondering right here. They’re in robust counts. They’re guessing, no less than a little bit bit; hitting is difficult. This man throws a extremely crushable fastball. The temptation to supply at something that begins on a common trajectory towards the highest of the zone should be overwhelming. After which whoops, it’s a giant bender, and also you miss by a foot.
If that have been the one factor occurring with Kilian, I wouldn’t be so fascinated by his begin to the season. This story is one we principally know by now. Starter heads to the bullpen, throws tougher, income. If you throw all your pitches tougher and likewise make them transfer extra, good issues usually occur. However there’s one change to Kilian’s sport that hasn’t been coated by this, and I needed to dig barely deeper. That query: Why is he strolling so many guys?
The promise of the soft-tosser-turned-reliever is that he’ll have a greater concept of the place the ball goes than your common bullpen arm. However Kilian is strolling 15% of the batters he faces. That’s usually an unplayable quantity of walks, and virtually all the time an indication that the pitcher can’t management the ball in any respect. That’s not a great description of Kilian, although. He’s operating a league-average zone fee and manipulating pitches properly sufficient that our fashions suppose his command charges as above common. What provides?
One factor that offers is that each one statistics are suspect early within the season. I went again and watched all seven walks he’s issued to get a greater concept of what’s occurring. One was intentional, and I, too, would have walked James Wooden in that scenario. Three have been lengthy battles with good hitters: a seven-pitch stroll to J.T. Realmuto, a seven-pitch stroll to Gunnar Henderson, and a nine-pitch saga towards Xavier Edwards. Two others have been six-pitch plate appearances the place he simply didn’t have a great sense of easy methods to finish issues. And one was a depressing four-pitch stroll to Trea Turner, only a full lack of command in a spot the place placing the ball within the zone was key.
My take, after watching all of those: Kilian’s sport doesn’t line up properly with three-ball counts. He’s hit 3-2 counts seven occasions this 12 months – 5 walks, one strikeout, and a single. It’s simple sufficient to know why: His two pitches are a fastball that by no means misses bats and a curveball he by no means throws within the zone. Choose one to throw in a 3-2 rely; you’re not going to love both consequence.
Loads of pitchers with numbers that appear like Kilian’s simply can’t hack it. They hit a run of robust batted ball luck, and the walks simply do them in. You’ll be able to stroll loads of guys with out too many penalties whenever you’re virtually by no means permitting a success; when the singles begin falling, issues collapse. However in his case notably, I feel there’s a countervailing impact. When he will get behind within the rely, he permits higher outcomes on contact, identical to all main league pitchers. That’s simply how the world works; when hitters are looking as a substitute of reacting, they do extra harm.
The factor is, Kilian doesn’t really enable a lot contact when he’s behind within the rely. That’s as a result of he simply walks the man. It’s virtually an strategy drawback extra so than a command drawback; he’s completely able to hitting the strike zone (league-average zone fee), however he has to go away the zone to overlook bats, and batters aren’t indulging him with a chase after they’re in advantageous counts. He’s throwing the ball within the zone extra incessantly in even counts (0-0, 1-1, 2-2) than when he’s behind. That’s principally exceptional; the league as an entire throws within the zone much more incessantly when behind within the rely, in fact.
So even after leveling up from minor league curiosity to legit massive league reliever, Kilian nonetheless fascinates me. He’s a bundle of contradictions. He runs enormous strikeout charges with a fastball that by no means misses bats. He walks the world regardless of having respectable command. He’s steadily climbing up the San Francisco bullpen hierarchy, however nonetheless drawing mopup work right here and there.
The long run right here is wildly unsettled. One thing has to offer. Perhaps he’ll give in and begin working within the zone extra incessantly when behind, accepting the inevitable improve in loud contact. Perhaps he’ll lean into his slider extra, or retool his show-me sinker into one thing he can use at will towards righties. Or possibly he’ll stick together with his plan and begin getting hit round extra. Perhaps he received’t have the ability to flip his four-seamer’s unusual profile into something workable. Perhaps the primary month of 2026 would be the greatest stretch of his profession.
I don’t suppose that’s how this may work out, although. Perhaps it’s simply my 2021 self hyping present Ben up. Perhaps I’m being swayed by the feel-good story – former Giants draftee returns to the workforce at age 29 to get his first massive league win and his first common massive league enjoying time. However I take a look at Kilian’s newfound array of plus pitches, and his monitor file of having the ability to transfer the ball across the zone, and I see greater than only a bulk-inning reliever. I wouldn’t be all that shocked to see him atop the San Francisco bullpen hierarchy by 12 months’s finish. It’s a straightforward sufficient hill to climb, the early outcomes are promising, and like I stated, I simply suppose there’s extra right here.