The Washington Nationals are beginning out robust, however not robust sufficient.
They weren’t imagined to be good in 2026. They weren’t good final 12 months, or the 12 months earlier than, or the 12 months earlier than, or the — they haven’t been good since they received the World Sequence in 2019. Our preseason positional energy rankings had them twenty ninth by total projected WAR. Justin Klugh led the Nationals essay within the 2026 Baseball Prospectus annual with the story of an enema given to George Washington simply earlier than his dying. And no, the parallel was not a very comfortable one.
Certainly, the Nationals haven’t been good. They’re 11-15 with a -18 run differential and a bottom-five WAR. They’re not but final within the NL East due to no matter is happening in New York and Philadelphia. However our projections assume they’ll discover their approach there ultimately.
Nonetheless, it’s the best way they’ve gotten to “not good” that’s been irritating, entertaining, and maybe even a bit encouraging. Let’s begin with a plot:
By 26 video games, the Nationals have scored 30 runs within the first inning. That’s essentially the most within the majors by fairly a bit. They’re drawing walks, hitting for energy, and dealing deep counts early. It’s not simply the primary. The Nationals as a staff have a 110 wRC+ and .334 xwOBA — fifth and sixth within the majors, respectively. The Braves are the one staff to have scored extra runs.
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In fact, the Braves solely leapt forward as a result of they the outscored the Nationals 28-23 this week. Sure, seven runs per sport is what the Nationals allowed of their newest sequence, and that isn’t out of the unusual. They’ve given up 162 runs thus far this 12 months, or 6.23 per sport, or far more than every other staff in baseball. Their pitchers are useless final within the majors with -1.9 WAR, with a foul rotation and a worse bullpen.
It’s a staff of extremes. Let’s begin with the comfortable ones.
The ‘W’ Is for Wooden & Co.
How are the Nationals scoring all these runs within the first inning?
Their leadoff hitter is James Wooden. He hit his tenth residence run of the season Thursday within the first inning on the primary pitch. (It additionally occurred to be the primary pitch of JR Ritchie’s profession.)
Wooden has a 170 wRC+, third finest within the majors. That is merely one of the best he’s ever performed in his younger profession, which is saying one thing. He’s doing all of it: Swinging onerous, squaring up the ball, and discovering the barrel greater than anyone else (29.5%). His .638 xwOBA on contact is second finest in baseball behind… Luke Raley, apparently.
The place that contact goes is attention-grabbing, too.
Wooden is, as soon as once more, operating one of many lowest pull charges within the majors, opting to smack the ball up the center or go the opposite approach. However the place he used to beat the ball into the bottom an excessive amount of, he’s now launching and operating the third-best ISO within the majors (.353).
For some batters, hitting fly balls the opposite approach is a little bit of a pink flag. Something that doesn’t attain the fence is usually run down by a rangy, well-positioned outfielder. That’s one motive many sluggers lately attempt to get out in entrance and purpose for the shallowest a part of the park. However Wooden is loads robust to shoot the hole in left-center, and even muscle one over the fence straightaway. Most of his residence runs this 12 months have regarded like this:
Crucially, Wooden has elevated his contact with out including extra popups. The tradeoff for all these grounders prior to now was that he hardly ever made auto-outs within the air, permitting him to run impressively excessive BABIPs. In 2026, Wooden is getting the launch essential to unlock his energy potential, whereas nonetheless lacking low to be aggressive on most balls in play. It’s primarily the identical contact profile — it’s simply higher proper now.
The identical might be stated for his strategy. Wooden stays one of many choosiest batters in baseball, with a minuscule swing charge and a robust eye. He nonetheless whiffs a ton, and he nonetheless has an enormous gap on pitches low and away, as Davy Andrews outlined final 12 months. However slightly than bettering on these weaknesses, Wooden has merely made his strengths even stronger. Pitchers can solely assault him in a single tiny a part of the zone, and in the event that they miss, he’ll both punish them instantly or power them to throw it once more underneath the identical menace.
Wooden’s nascent step ahead isn’t essentially the most stunning growth for the Nationals. CJ Abrams shouldn’t be far behind him, with a 168 wRC+ that ranks sixth within the majors.
Abrams is the polar reverse of Wooden in some ways, regardless of every coming over within the Juan Soto commerce. He swings at every part in or out of the zone, and he typically hits the ball within the air and to the pull aspect, not all the time with oomph. It’s an strategy that’s returned a passing grade on the plate the final two seasons (106 and 107 wRC+), however he’s appeared to depart a bit on the desk.
Ben Clemens wrote final 12 months about Abrams’ lack of self-discipline, mentioning that he wasn’t displaying sufficient energy to justify such a unfastened conception of the strike zone. And Abrams this 12 months is chasing greater than ever, with a 36.8% chase charge in comparison with 32.6% final 12 months. He’s additionally whiffing on 29.3% of swings — a profession excessive.
When he isn’t whiffing, although, he’s making a lot better contact:
The phrase on Abrams’ strategy acquired out over the offseason. Pitchers this 12 months are throwing him tons of pitches out of the zone, and he’s seeing far more breaking balls — one other weak spot from 2025. He appears to have anticipated this adjustment and beat them to the punch. Sure, he’s nonetheless chasing and whiffing at a lot of these breaking balls, however his hard-hit charge towards them has jumped from 32.6% final 12 months to 58.1% this season.
As an illustration, right here’s a sweeper that he sat on and crushed to proper for a house run:
Regardless of the acute strategy, Abrams has truly doubled his stroll charge. No, he’s not working counts any higher, and he’s truly discovered himself in fewer three-ball counts up to now. However when he does get to a three-ball depend, he has practically halved his chase charge. Final 12 months, he chased 49.3% of the pitches he noticed out of the zone with three balls. This 12 months, he’s chased simply 23.2% of them. It’s a compromise, of types.
The inspiration is a bit wobbly, he’s finished this earlier than, and his protection remains to be suspect. Besides, that is good to see. Regardless of greater than 2,000 plate appearances within the majors, Abrams remains to be solely 25 years outdated.
The opposite encouraging signal for the Washington offense is Daylen Lile, who’s picked up proper the place he left off final 12 months, as a form of free-swinging, soft-contact, all-fields slasher, leveraging supreme launch angles to plop singles everywhere in the subject. It actually helps that he’s one of many quickest gamers within the league. That is what Lile seems like at his finest, scorching a one-hopper via the infield and hustling into second whereas a panicked outfield scrambles for the ball:
The remainder of the Nats order has been simply OK, and that’s been sufficient. Joey Wiemer started the 12 months by reaching base in his first 10 plate appearances; his wRC+ is a fair 100 since. Jorbit Vivas has been attention-grabbing, as a slower, slappier, fringier model of Lile. Curtis Mead, Jacob Younger, and Brady Home have every finished a factor or two. I don’t anticipate the Nationals to in the end lead the league in runs, however this begin is an early win for the youngest lineup in baseball.
The ‘W’ Is for Whoa, That’s Dangerous
Then there’s the pitching. It’s merely been the worst. Their starters rank thirtieth with -0.2 WAR, and their relievers rank thirtieth with -1.7 WAR.
Now, I don’t actually wish to write about this. It’s not enjoyable, and it’s not information. The Nationals pitching was imagined to be unhealthy. This offseason, they traded their finest starter, MacKenzie Gore, to the Rangers, they usually traded their finest reliever, Jose Ferrer, to the Mariners. It was by no means going to go nicely. We rated their beginning pitchers twenty eighth within the preseason, and we rated their bullpen not simply the worst within the majors, however the worst group at any place.
Nonetheless, the extent of their badness has been unlucky. As Matt Martell not too long ago identified, Nationals pitchers posted the least WAR via a staff’s first 12 video games since at the very least 1974, which is way back to our game-by-game team-WAR knowledge goes. They’ve improved to merely unhealthy since then, however having watched a variety of Nationals baseball this 12 months, I can let you know that 6.23 runs per sport feels appropriate.
Right here’s the place the “runs by inning” chart returns. If you happen to scroll again to that plot, you’ll discover the Nationals are literally giving up a median variety of runs within the first inning, in addition to within the eighth and ninth. That relationship turns into considerably apparent on this subsequent group of splits:
Nationals Pitcher Splits
| Starters | Batters Confronted | FIP | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Time By Order | 218 | 3.55 | 14 |
| 2nd Time By Order | 199 | 7.75 | 30 |
| third Time By Order | 87 | 5.94 | 27 |
| Low Leverage | 311 | 6.12 | 29 |
| Medium Leverage | 162 | 5.31 | 28 |
| Excessive Leverage | 89 | 4.65 | 18 |
Nationals starters have been tremendous on their first cross via the order. It’s within the center innings when the lineup turns over that all of it falls aside. That is the place the issues start. Nats starters are averaging fewer than 5 innings per sport, that means their low-leverage arms are being requested to cowl a number of innings at a time. Not even one of the best bullpens can survive such a workload. It’s been a bunch effort, in different phrases.
There’s no approach to spin Washington’s pitching thus far as something apart from a catastrophe. However I’ll attempt anyway. Cade Cavalli, as an illustration, struck out 10 towards a robust Braves lineup Thursday and has a 2.82 FIP via six begins. His large knuckle-curve is lacking tons of bats, and if he can ever discover the strike zone extra constantly, he might be a giant deal for this staff. I’m additionally intrigued by Foster Griffin’s kitchen-sink strategy. He appears to maintain opponents off stability and has turned in a couple of good begins, even when the softer stuff makes him vulnerable to ambush homers (particularly on the second flip). And, if the Nationals can ever get the ball to Gus Varland in leverage, that top-rail fastball is a variety of enjoyable to observe.
There’s additionally a couple of “good course of” issues occurring right here. I’m prepared to purchase the stuff bump we’re seeing from Jake Irvin and assume he’ll enhance. I’m inspired by the swingman-rebirth of Mitchell Parker — the stuff seems a lot better. Plus, I’m curious to see DJ Herz, Jarlin Susana, and Josiah Grey each time their well being permits it. Now, was it “good course of” to commerce Gore and Ferrer? Eh, I don’t know. These offers look poorly timed if Washington continues to characteristic a top-10 lineup. Then once more, possibly that’s not real looking, and it actually wasn’t on the time these trades have been made.
To date in 2026, the Nationals have caught my curiosity in a approach I wasn’t anticipating. There appears to be actual, constructive momentum constructing on the main league stage, even when their rivalry window is as far out as… nonetheless lengthy it takes to construct a whole pitching workers. They’ve a handful of younger, team-controlled, doubtlessly star-level batters. And so they have an attention-grabbing assortment of prospects and supplementary gamers. (For extra on that, take a look at our 2026 Washington Nationals Prime 41 Prospects record, which was printed earlier right now.) The Nationals are a piece in progress. However hey, it’s progress, nonetheless.