Solely an act of science might get Jeremiah Jackson to take a stroll.
Jackson entered Sunday with 65 plate appearances in 2026. He’d picked up 19 hits, together with 5 homers and a double. He’d additionally struck out 17 instances, grounded into two double performs, lined a sacrifice fly, and brought a wayward breaking ball off his again toe. He’d labored by just about each commonplace final result for a plate look to start the brand new season — however he hadn’t drawn a stroll. Actually, Jackson entered Sunday because the batter with essentially the most plate appearances within the majors to haven’t recorded a base on balls.
That was initially the case once more Sunday because the Orioles wrapped up their collection in Cleveland. Jackson struck out within the second inning, hit a pointy line drive single within the fourth, and reached on an error within the fifth.
Then he stepped to the plate to steer off the eighth. On the mound was nasty lefty Erik Sabrowski, contemporary out of the Guardians bullpen. Sabrowski began him with an enormous curveball within the dust. Jackson laid off for ball one. Sabrowski pumped his signature fastball, however it ran too far inside for ball two. Sabrowski tried to skim the opposite aspect of the plate, however missed too excessive for ball three.
Then it occurred. Sabrowski threw one other fastball, this time over the middle of the plate. However he once more missed too excessive — method too excessive — for ball 4. Jackson had drawn his first stroll of 2026.
Besides, he hadn’t. Simply as Jackson was ready to set his bat down, the umpire known as strike. Jackson paused, tapped his head, and proceeded with setting down his bat and eradicating his gear, with a curious eye towards the video board. In zoomed the animated ball, revealing that the pitch was certainly method up and out of the zone for ball 4. Jackson walked to first.
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A Transient Tangent on ABS Challenges
That is really the pitch that justifies the problem system in my thoughts. Typically, I’m not an enormous fan of the problem system. I feel it’s sort of goofy for the league to make “the calls aren’t right” a function of the sport, somewhat than simply fixing the calls. It’s a bit tedious to make Jackson undergo that complete course of needlessly, assuming the objective is to enhance accuracy on balls and strikes.
However I’m happy the decision was finally made right. Umpires for years have proven a really human tendency to “even up” lopsided counts — increasing the zone in 3-0 counts, shrinking the zone in 0-2 counts. Right here we are able to see the known as ball price on pitches out of the zone in all counts versus 3-0 counts:
Out-of-Zone Known as Ball Charge
| 12 months | All Counts | 3-0 Counts | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.1% | 85.7% | 9.4 |
| 2025 | 94.7% | 87.3% | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 93.3% | 84.8% | 8.5 |
| 2023 | 93.5% | 86.0% | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 93.0% | 84.0% | 9.0 |
| 2021 | 92.5% | 83.7% | 8.8 |
| 2020 | 92.1% | 84.0% | 8.1 |
| 2019 | 92.0% | 81.4% | 10.6 |
| 2018 | 92.0% | 82.1% | 9.9 |
| 2017 | 91.6% | 82.2% | 9.4 |
| 2016 | 91.2% | 79.9% | 11.3 |
| 2015 | 90.5% | 79.5% | 11.0 |
Supply: Baseball Savant
Notice: All non-challenged takes by 4/19
This bias has slowly corrected itself through the years as umpires have improved their whole accuracy. What’s attention-grabbing is that, to date in 2026, these calls seem barely extra frequent. The desk above exhibits solely non-challenged pitches. Via Sunday, there have been 11 extra 3-0 takes on pitches out of the zone that have been challenged: eight have been (incorrectly) known as strikes challenged by the batter, and three have been (appropriately) known as balls challenged by the catcher. This implies the true right name price by human umpires on 3-0 pitches out of the zone was 84.3%, bringing the distinction relative to all counts to 10.7 share factors — the biggest since 2016. After challenges, the right name price is 86.1%, which appears extra in keeping with latest seasons.
Now, if we have been to have a look at this different method — known as balls on pitches within the zone in 0-2 counts — the problem system does appear to be doing fairly a bit to eradicate bias, so I feel it’s working total. However this isn’t a submit about ABS. Let’s transfer on.
Again To Stay Jackson
Anyhow…
That first stroll, science or not, raised Jackson’s wRC+ to 146 by his first 69 plate appearances of 2026. That’s spectacular. That’s shocking. That’s… in all probability not more likely to proceed (he’s already all the way down to 136 after Tuesday’s sport, by which he drew his second stroll of the season), however it’s a terrific signal for the Orioles nonetheless.
Jackson doesn’t stroll a lot as a result of he’s uber aggressive. He’s swung at 61.4% of pitches to date in 2026, which is the second-highest price amongst certified batters. He doesn’t precisely discriminate, both. Few batters swing extra in or out of the zone. Actually, Jackson ranks within the backside 5% of the majors by SEAGER (a plate self-discipline metric created by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus). He’s labored a three-ball rely in simply six plate appearances this yr. Walks merely aren’t a part of his sport.
What’s attention-grabbing about Jackson is that he doesn’t have the contact instruments you may count on from a free swinger. He whiffs fairly a bit (30.6% in 2026), so he’s not likely in the identical bucket as Jacob Wilson. And he doesn’t hit the ball significantly exhausting (35.2%), so he’s not within the Jo Adell bucket, both.
No, Jackson is someplace within the center. He’s struck out at a 23.1% clip to date in 2026, about common. And he’s nonetheless produced a strong .430 xwOBACON regardless of his modest exit velocity. He has a flat, stage, fast swing able to squaring up the ball nearly wherever a pitch is thrown. We are able to see that in his launch angle distribution:
I really like this distribution for him. Once more, he doesn’t hit the ball exhausting sufficient to swing for the fences each time. As a substitute, he goals low, squaring up tons of excessive grounders and low line drives. He hardly ever goes above 32 levels of launch, which is wise, as a result of these batted balls are successfully the identical as a strikeout for somebody with out top-tier exit velocity. His popup price is simply 1.9%. This can be a commonplace hit for Jackson:
When Jackson does elevate, it’s extremely more likely to be to the pull aspect — almost half of his elevated contact to date is touring towards the shallowest a part of the park. So whereas I doubt he’ll proceed on his tempo of 30-plus homers, it isn’t too shocking that he’s already hit 5.
I really like this homer particularly. Eduardo Rodriguez missed over the plate with a middle-middle fastball, and Jackson took his ordinary aggressive hack, beaming it 110.4 mph at 18 levels to left:
In different phrases, there does appear to be one thing extra going for Jackson than merely luck in an early-season small pattern. He’s made lots of contact, and almost all of it has been aggressive, even when it doesn’t look conventional. The priority, after all, is {that a} 2.6% stroll price places tons of strain on his capacity to maintain slashing one hoppers by the opening. These will certainly stoop in some unspecified time in the future, leaving him and not using a technique of reaching base. I assume he’ll begin strolling a bit extra because the season progresses; his stroll price final yr began actually low following his debut, however reached 10.5% over the past two weeks of the season. Maybe he’ll decelerate quickly and begin taking extra pitches, or pitchers will begin being a bit extra cautious. Or possibly he received’t modify and as a substitute will merely submit his profession to the desire of no matter larger energy distributes BABIP.
Regardless, that is an encouraging improvement for the Orioles, who misplaced their long-term plan at second base, Jackson Holliday, to a hamate harm within the preseason. Holliday is on a Triple-A rehab task in the meanwhile and can seemingly take again his spot quickly. However Jackson occurs to be a utility fielder who can play third base, the place the Orioles even have a gap following Jordan Westburg’s UCL harm. If Jackson continues to hit, he’ll proceed to search out enjoying time someplace within the Baltimore lineup.