The Mets’ 2026 season started with such promise. With a remade roster after final 12 months’s disappointing 83-79 end — new seems to be within the infield and outfield, a brand new Opening Day starter to guide their employees, and infusions of youth each within the lineup and within the rotation — they kicked issues off by beating up reigning NL Cy Younger winner Paul Skenes and gained three out of their first 4 video games. Although April 7, they had been 7-4, together with a pair of walk-off wins. They haven’t gained since, and already proprietor Steve Cohen is pleading with followers to remain the course.
First, the Mets dropped the ultimate 5 video games of their second homestand towards the Diamondbacks and Athletics, getting shut out twice and scoring greater than two runs simply as soon as; in the meantime, they gave up seven or extra runs thrice. Then they flew to Los Angeles to face the two-time defending champion Dodgers, and whereas they did get a seven-inning, one-run gem from rookie Nolan McLean reverse Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Tuesday evening, they misplaced all three video games by a mixed rating of (gulp) 14-3.
At 7-12, the Mets are tied with the Giants and Rockies for the Nationwide League’s worst file. They’re final within the NL East, 5 video games behind the Braves, who’ve bolted from the gate by successful 12 of 19 regardless of accidents to a full rotation’s value of starters, together with Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach, in addition to catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. If there’s excellent news, it’s that the remainder of the division has began sluggishly as nicely, with each crew in addition to the Braves beneath .500. The Mets are solely two video games out of second place, not that that provides wins to their ledger.
One doesn’t must go very far again to recall the Mets’ final eight-game shedding streak: September 6–13 of final 12 months. That skid performed a serious half of their lacking the playoffs, as a result of for one factor, they dropped the season sequence to the Reds inside that span, and thus misplaced the tiebreaker that they would want when the 2 groups completed 83-79 whereas vying for the final NL Wild Card spot. It’s not onerous to think about president of baseball operations David Stearns noticing that in that skid, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo had been the crew’s two weakest hitters. Now, each are carrying different uniforms, half of a bigger roster shakeup that included letting Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz stroll as free brokers.
However why dwell on final 12 months’s postmortem once we’ve received a contemporary physique on the desk? Via 19 video games, that is the Mets’ worst begin since 2011, once they opened the season 6-13 and limped residence with a 77-85 file. They’ve stumbled this badly or worse out of the gate just one different time this millennium, going 7-12 to start out the 2004 season and ending 71-91. Whereas a 7-12 begin shouldn’t be deadly to a crew’s playoff hopes — significantly a crew that as of Opening Day was projected to win 90 video games — solely one of many 10 groups that’s gone precisely 7-12 by 19 video games because the introduction of the present 12-team postseason format in 2022 has rebounded to make the playoffs (the ’22 Guardians), and just one with a worse file (the ’24 Astros, who began 6-13) has performed so inside that span as nicely.
The Mets most likely aren’t actually this dangerous. Their -14 run differential is definitely a lot better than these of the 8-10 Phillies (-25 runs) and Giants (-24), and barely higher than that of the 10-8 Cardinals (-17). They’re about one win behind each their Pytathagenpat projected successful proportion of .414 and their BaseRuns projected successful proportion of .436. Their win projection for the season nonetheless stands at 85, with a 57.1% probability of creating the playoffs, although they’ve fallen additional than some other crew by way of each projected wins (5) and playoff odds (23.4 factors).
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Unquestionably the Mets’ greatest drawback has been their offense, which has been shutout 4 instances and scored two runs or fewer 10 instances; they’ve misplaced all of these video games. In the meantime, the Reds — whose 4.05 runs per recreation allowed is simply forward of the Mets’ 4.16 within the NL rankings — have gone 5-4 once they’ve scored not more than two runs. They’re 11-8 total regardless of a -13 run differential. That’s fairly a distinction.
Each the Mets’ 3.42 runs per recreation and 78 wRC+ (on an anemic .220/.286/.331 line) rank second-to-last within the NL. They’ve been even worse since April 4, batting .212/.252/.296 for a 57 wRC+, and scored simply 2.73 runs per recreation, a flip that coincides with the lack of Juan Soto, who had hit .355/.412/.516 (159 wRC+) by his first eight video games. The slugger strained his proper calf whereas working the bases on April 3, an damage that was anticipated to sideline him for 2 to a few weeks. Friday marks the two-week level, and the excellent news is that Soto has not solely been capable of proceed hitting and enjoying catch since struggling the damage, he started a working program on Tuesday. All indications are that he’ll be again someday throughout the subsequent week, whether or not he goes out on a rehab task or will get reside at-bats towards Mets minor leaguers at Citi Discipline.
Except for Soto, solely two different regulars have hit at a league-average clip or higher, particularly catcher Francisco Alvarez (.271/.386/.542, 163 wRC+) and middle fielder Luis Robert Jr. (.241/.371/.345, 115 wRC+). Jared Younger, who has a 137 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances whereas recognizing at first base and in left discipline, landed on the IL earlier this week attributable to a torn meniscus in his left knee — the identical destiny that befell Mike Tauchman throughout spring coaching — that can require surgical procedure; he’s been changed on the roster by MJ Melendez.
Everyone else who’s taken a plate look for the Mets has a wRC+ of 71 or decrease. Till Tuesday evening, Francisco Lindor hadn’t pushed in a run, not to mention hit a homer. He received on the board by crushing a middle-middle fastball from Yamamoto on the righty’s third pitch of the sport, sending it 402 toes over the fitting discipline fence. That ended a 20-inning scoreless drought for the Mets, but it surely was the one run they scored. Lindor is hitting simply .184/.287/.289 (71 wRC+) — and once more, that’s the most effective efficiency of any hitter in addition to those talked about above.
Aside from Robert, the newcomers Stearns introduced in haven’t coated themselves in glory. Bo Bichette (.228/.271/.304, 65 wRC+) and Marcus Semien (.194/.257/.269, 53 wRC+) have been downright horrible; the previous has a 43.3% chase charge and only a 1.7% barrel charge. Jorge Polanco (.179/.246/.286, 54 wRC+) has been horrible and has appeared even worse whereas coping with irritation in his left Achilles tendon that has restricted him to DH responsibility. Whereas he and the Mets say he gained’t want a stint on the IL, one would suppose a substitute with not one however two working legs would possibly assist the trigger whereas giving the 32-year-old switch-hitter a reset.
Elsewhere, rookie Carson Benge, who gained the fitting discipline job with a powerful efficiency in spring coaching after which homered in his Opening Day debut, has hit .151/.237/.226 (39 wRC+), although he does have hits in 5 of his final six video games, in comparison with two in his earlier 9. Amid that skid, Stearns maintained the crew had not mentioned sending the 23-year-old, who throughout his speedy rise performed simply 32 video games at Double-A and 24 at Triple-A final 12 months, again to the minors. “I believe our view is Carson’s going to determine this out. He’s a great participant and we’re joyful to have him on the crew,” mentioned Stearns. “I believe we’ve seen, at instances, some actually good at-bats, and at instances, possibly getting slightly bit jumpy. In all probability attempting to do an excessive amount of, possibly subconsciously attempting to do an excessive amount of.”
With Soto out, and with Robert on a strict load-management routine to maintain him wholesome, Benge has performed 5 video games in left and three in middle. That’s opened up time in proper discipline for Brett Baty, who introduced some momentum into spring coaching after a powerful second half and added to his positional repertoire by studying proper discipline and first base. Whereas he’s made eight begins on the former place and three on the latter, he’s been horrible on the plate. Not solely has he hit simply .203/.197/.288 for a team-low 30 wRC+, he hasn’t even drawn a stroll in 61 plate appearances, a efficiency that may necessitate resurrecting the DiSar Awards. With profession highs in each his chase (38.5%) and swing (52%) charges, it’s honest to counsel he’s urgent. In the meantime, Mark Vientos has gotten the majority of the primary base responsibility with Polanco DHing. He’s hit simply .227/.255/.341 (67 wRC+) and has been making significantly poor contact; his common exit velocity is down 4.2 mph from final 12 months (from 91.4 mph to 87.2), and he’s produced only a 2.9% barrel charge and 35.3% hard-hit charge.
The Mets modified hitting coaches after final season, transferring on from co-coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes in favor of Jeff Albert (whose title is “director of main league hitting”) and Troy Snitker. After Wednesday’s loss, Snitker mentioned, “We have to execute higher within the recreation… We have to drive the ball extra. We have to swing at pitches that we will do one thing with… We have to be dedicated to what we need to swing at, what we’re on the lookout for and simply stick to that the entire time, whatever the state of affairs.”
A few of that feels like coach-speak boilerplate, however just a few issues do stand out in regards to the Mets’ collective hunch, even whereas all people’s numbers are in small-sample territory. For one, there could also be a component of dangerous luck concerned, as a result of whereas the Mets rank nineteenth within the majors in common exit velocity (88.8 mph) and hard-hit charge (39%), twenty second in barrel charge (6.8%), and twenty third in xwOBA (.309), they’re twenty ninth in wOBA (.281); their -.028 wOBA-xwOBA differential is the majors’ third largest in that course, forward of solely the Reds (-.029) and Padres (-.031).
Past that, a few issues could hook up with what Snitker mentioned. Amid the turnover within the lineup, the crew has gone from being one of many least chase-prone groups within the majors final 12 months (26.3%, fifth lowest) to one of the crucial chase-prone (32.5%, fourth highest). Baty has the biggest spike in chase charge among the many 180 gamers with no less than 400 plate appearances final 12 months and 40 this 12 months at 13.8% (from 24.7% to 38.5%). Bichette (up 8.1%, from 35.2% to 43.3%, Polanco (up 6%, from 26.8% to 32.8%), and Semien (up 5.1%, from 23.5% to twenty-eight.6%) are all within the higher quartile as nicely, whereas solely Robert (-3.7%, from 32.5% to twenty-eight.7%) is down greater than 0.2%.
In the meantime, 5 Mets rank among the many backside 31 in year-to-year decreases in barrel charge utilizing the identical cutoffs:
Largest Drops in Barrel Fee from 2025 to 2026
Minimal 400 plate appearances in 2025 and 40 in 2026.
I ought to level out right here that the 40-plate look cutoff I used for 2026 to be able to contemplate the identical group of gamers’ chase and barrel charges means I’m basing the latter comparability on anyplace from 34 batted ball occasions (Vientos) to 59 (Bichette) the place the aforementioned Mets are involved. Not all of those charges (together with ones from the opposite groups above) are based mostly on samples giant sufficient to have began to stabilize. Nonetheless, I believe this factors within the course of Snitker’s statement, in that the crew isn’t making nice swing selections — and it absolutely doesn’t assist that the man who makes a few of the finest swing selections within the recreation, Soto, has been sidelined.
Provided that supervisor Carlos Mendoza is within the remaining assured season of his contract (he has an choice for subsequent 12 months) and that the Mets do function within the New York media fishbowl, speak that he’s on the recent seat has already surfaced. That’s hardly honest, significantly given the brand new mixture of gamers and coaches he’s been handed by Stearns, however after final 12 months’s collapse, it’s a actuality. Nonetheless, Cohen, Stearns, and Mendoza are all preaching endurance as a substitute of panic, and with Soto on his approach again, and 143 video games nonetheless to play, the chances are the Mets are going to be higher than this — maybe a lot better. However till they’re, it might be robust to look at.