Three weeks into the 2026 season, I discover myself wanting across the league and being astonished by how proper I used to be about every little thing I believed was going to occur. I’m already on the board within the Successfully Wild predictions sport with Artemis II taking off earlier than the primary 117-mph batted ball, and my off-the-wall prediction that Mickey Moniak would lead all no. 1 picks in house runs is by some means on observe. This regardless of Moniak beginning the season on the IL.
If I’m going to get all my victory laps on this season, I’d higher begin now, starting with Brandon Lowe being a terrific pickup for the Pirates.
Lowe wasted no time endearing himself to the Yinzer crowd, as he went deep twice on Opening Day. Lowe’s whole of dingers has since swollen to seven. That’s good for second within the league behind Jordan Walker, which tells you the way early within the season it’s. However Aaron Choose, Yordan Alvarez, and Sal Stewart (talking of men who began sizzling) are additionally a part of that second-place tie. It nonetheless takes a sure high quality of hitter to go deep so many instances so early within the 12 months.
I all the time thought Lowe was an impressed get for the Pirates, particularly since they paid so little to accumulate him. It was a three-team cope with the Rays and Astros, which introduced Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Mason Montgomery to Pittsburgh from Tampa Bay, with Mike Burrows going to Houston. I don’t need to spend an excessive amount of relitigating this commerce, however Lowe’s gotten off to a sizzling begin as Pittsburgh’s beginning second baseman.
Montgomery has been used as a high-leverage reliever, the place he at the moment has a 42.5% strikeout charge and a 5.40 ERA, so perhaps we must always let these marbles accept a minute earlier than passing judgment. Mangum is a bizarre participant (I wrote about why final 12 months) who was method higher than I anticipated as a rookie; he’ll by no means hit for energy, however he’s in all probability effective as a fourth outfielder and pinch-runner. That’s not a nasty haul for a starer the Pirates weren’t going to make use of anyway.
I’ve been an enormous fan of Lowe’s since his days on the College of Maryland, the place he shared an infield with LaMonte Wade Jr. and future large league reliever Jose Cuas, however I’ll be the primary to confess he’s a restricted participant. He strikes out so much; 27.1% for his profession, and 26.9% in 2025. When the Rays traded Lowe, he’d performed sufficient to qualify for the batting title simply as soon as in 4 years, and his stroll charge had been on the decline two years working.
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Lowe just isn’t an excellent defensive second baseman, and that criticism has gone from a nag to a blaring alarm as he’s hit his 30s. And regardless of terrific energy numbers, he’s merely an OK on-base man (.314 OBP from 2022 via 2025) who doesn’t truly hit the ball particularly laborious.
All that stated, the actual motive the Rays removed him for reasonable was his $11.5 million wage. (Say what you’ll about Lowe’s limitations, he’s not less than nearly as good as Gavin Lux and higher than Richie Palacios and Taylor Partitions.) That’s so much for Tampa Bay, and it could’ve been so much for the Pirates beneath regular circumstances, however for an up-the-middle man who would in all probability hit 20 to 30 house runs and put up about 2 WAR in a full season, that’s not a lot in any respect. The truth that the Pirates — often the game’s most miserly franchise — would make such a transfer was profoundly encouraging.
As a result of the Pirates have already accomplished the 2 hardest steps towards constructing a contender: They’ve the most effective pitcher within the Nationwide League in Paul Skenes, and by all appearances, they’ve a famous person shortstop within the making in Konnor Griffin. However they sucked at a bunch of various positions, together with second base.
Truly, second base itself was fairly unhealthy final 12 months; solely first base and DH produced fewer whole WAR league-wide than second base. Second basemen additionally tied with heart area for the bottom league-wide wRC+ by defensive place. (The weakest offensive place is meant to be catcher, however I’m assuming Cal Raleigh screwed up the curve by himself.)
Even by that low bar, the Pirates’ second basemen did not cowl themselves in glory in 2025: 1.3 WAR (twentieth out of 30 groups) and a wRC+ of 80 (twenty third out of 30). Lowe beats these figures in his sleep. If he strikes out so much, you reside with it. If he’s a horrible defender at second, nicely, you’ve obtained Ryan O’Hearn within the outfield—Lowe is the least of your worries.
As a lot as I beloved this commerce for Pittsburgh, I didn’t foresee that after 16 video games, Lowe could be hitting .250/.375/.633. His 1.0 WAR is three tenths of a win from what all Pirates second basemen produced on the combination final 12 months. His .383 ISO wouldn’t simply be a profession excessive for him, it could be a profession excessive for Choose.
Lowe is at the moment working a .211 BABIP; he’s a fly ball hitter, historically, and due to this fact not an enormous BABIP man. Even so, that determine would often portend higher batted ball luck down the road. Statcast information, as you may count on, reveals the alternative. Lowe is at the moment outstripping his xSLG by greater than 160 factors, and his EV90 of 103.5 mph is merely 127th out of 189 certified hitters in the intervening time. His bat velocity can be down from earlier years, which I point out to not ring alarm bells however merely to level out that he hasn’t unlocked some hitherto undiscovered fast-twitch potential.
Lowe does two issues actually, rather well. First: He kills fastballs. Final 12 months, he hit .278 and slugged .564 off four-seamers; he was one spot above James Wooden on the leaderboard for wOBA on four-seamers, and thirteenth in the entire league in run worth created.
Lowe has seen 73 four-seamers in 2026. He swung at 28 of these and put seven of them in play, together with three that landed within the seats. Lowe has seen 42 fastballs of all types in Statcast’s coronary heart zone. He’s slugging 1.133 on these pitches, fifteenth out of 336 batters who’ve seen 50 or extra fastballs thus far this season. Right here’s one:
Look, you may’t throw 92 middle-middle to any respectable hitter on this league, however Lowe is healthier at dispatching these than most. That’s because of his second particular potential: Over Lowe’s profession, 23.1% of his batted balls have been pulled and within the air; the league common over that point is 16.7%. That is the place injury will get performed. Pull-side line drives flip into doubles and triples, pull-side fly balls flip into house runs.
Statcast’s anticipated stats (e.g. xSLG) take note of launch angle and exit velo however not batted ball route. Over a sufficiently big pattern, that evens out, however the truth that Lowe’s in-air pull charge is 26.7% proper now offers us some perception into how he’s hit seven house runs in three weeks with lackluster exit velo numbers.
All seven of Lowe’s house runs this season have come to the pull aspect, as did 19 of his 31 dingers final 12 months and 111 of his 164 profession main league house runs. PNC Park is an efficient spot for him then; it’s solely 320 toes out to the fitting area foul pole, which is the fifth-shortest proper area porch within the league.
The venue’s well-known 21-foot proper area fence may cost Lowe the odd wallscraper, however what we’re taking a look at right here is principally a mirror picture of the Crawford Containers in Daikin Park in Houston; it’s 315 toes out to left area there, with a 19-foot wall. You already know who performs there: Mr. In-Air Pull Price himself, Isaac Paredes. Final 12 months, Paredes had a 14th-percentile hard-hit charge, and his EV90 was 224th out of 277 batters with 300 or extra plate appearances. This isn’t a man with a ton of pop.
Nonetheless, Paredes hit 20 house runs in 438 plate appearances. Half of these 20 house runs got here at house and to the pull aspect. I don’t assume Lowe goes to tear off 45 wallscrapers, buoyed by the proximity of the fitting area wall. However he gained’t need to as a way to be an asset to a Pirates workforce that wants all of the pop it may possibly get, no matter type it takes.