Ben Clemens Prime 50 Free Brokers Chat

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I’ll attempt to get to as many questions as attainable at the moment, however I’m additionally going to attempt to keep away from double-dipping on gamers, so if I don’t reply yours, there’s an honest likelihood that I have already got. There are solely so many free brokers and already so many groups, I’ll in all probability get to all of them.

Bret: What was your projection for Shane Bieber earlier than he stayed with the Jays? How shocked had been you?

fried rice: how a lot you guess for bieber

Cubswon: Thx in your excellent work! Please make sense of the Flaherty and Bieber choice selections. Extensions? Damage?

Ben Clemens: So, I had each Flaherty and Bieber on the listing earlier than they every opted in, although I really had neither on my first cross b/c I believed they had been each holding their offers, then added them in b/c they appeared fairly cuspy

Ben Clemens: at all times higher to mannequin, supply, and undertaking somebody if you happen to’re in between, so we put each of them in. My “will this man decide out” mannequin is only a tiny subset of the contract mannequin and mentioned each of them wouldn’t, however the early rumblings had been in any other case, and I positively suppose each had been shut

Ben Clemens: I had Flaherty accepting a QO, so solely barely greater than he bought, and I had Bieber getting the identical deal as Woodruff, 2/17, 34 complete

Ben Clemens: I believed Flaherty could be incentivized to decide out to clear the QO, however I suppose given how flat his market was final yr even with out a QO,  possibly it simply wasn’t definitely worth the threat

Ben Clemens: I really thougth about marking Woodruff’s deal down after Bieber opted again in. As you possibly can see within the listing, I’m decrease than the market on Woodruff; I projected him as getting extra money than the ten free brokers I put in entrance of him

Ben Clemens: I simply actually don’t discover shopping for post-injury starters in free company that compelling this yr

Ethan: In the event you’re the Mets would you like giving Tucker the massive contract or Alonso 5/$150. I believe long run transferring Soto or Nimmo to 1B to enhance protection at 1B after which changing them with tucker who’s at the very least common in OF looks as if one thing that matches into the “run prevention” message Stearns has talked about they usually don’t lose that a lot if any offensive manufacturing by letting Alonso stroll.

Ben Clemens: focusing on run prevention by signing Kyle Tucker would actually be one thing

Ben Clemens: Actually, if I had been GM’ing I believe I’d in all probability need another person to win the Tucker bidding

Ben Clemens: My mannequin is extra like 10/275 for him, nevertheless it doesn’t do high of market premium that properly, so I threw in a ton of cash there as a result of the primary title appears to get numerous helium

Ben Clemens: principally I actually like Tucker however I don’t suppose I’d anticipate him to out-hit Alonso subsequent yr

Ben Clemens: and signing a man who’s common in an outfield nook simply doesn’t matter to me defensively

Ben Clemens: I believe the groups who go all out for Tucker will really need an outfielder, particularly, not a 1B

Ben Clemens: that’s how I’m eager about it, at the very least

Kyle: Re: Bregman, do you see it as a straight 4/140, or do you suppose there are deferrals once more bringing his AAV down.  The 4/140 would really be growing his AAV on an extended deal, regardless of being a yr older and lacking 1/3 of the yr to damage.

Ben Clemens: Straight. I believe that he’ll get a increase, sure. Final yr’s felt like a pillow deal nearly. I additionally suppose that the Sox are in a tricky negotiating place right here, and it might behoove them so as to add infield energy in a market the place that’s removed from straightforward

Joe R: What did your mannequin have on the Ha-Seong Kim opt-out? Appeared like one of many extra up within the air ones amongst place gamers

Ben Clemens: yeah, cuspy as properly

Ben Clemens: I threw him on the listing as a result of there was numerous smoke from writers about him opting out

Ben Clemens: It felt just like the sort of factor the place it was sourced anonymously, certain, however many occasions by many individuals

Geneo: Which of Gallen, King, & Woodruff will get probably the most years. Do all of them get a short-term, opt-out model deal?

Ben Clemens: I believe King is gonna take the QO

Ben Clemens: I believe it’d make sense for everybody, actually

Ben Clemens: And I’ve each Gallen and Woodruff getting two years, however I’d be much more keen on extending to a 3rd yr for Gallen if it was a case of needing to face out from teh crowd to get the deal executed

Ben Clemens: I’m simply frightened of Woodruff’s decline in stuff. Like, it was actually unhealthy, and even with that, he pitched for just a little bit and bought damage once more. I believe it’s a must to bake in some very actual threat of catastrophic decline. I believe the draw back with Gallen might be embarrassing fourth starter, whereas the draw back with Woodruff is he by no means performs for you

Dan S.: The Orioles may use Harrison Bader for one yr whereas Enrique Bradfield Jr. continues to develop in AAA. However they won’t want him past that, at the very least as an everyday in CF. What are the probabilities they might frontload the two/30 give you’re estimating, with one thing like 18M the primary yr and 12M the second? That method it’d be simpler to commerce him if wanted, or justify holding him as a 4th OF in 2027. How would a participant really feel about that sort of construction?

Ben Clemens: Gamers could be very pleased with this construction

Ben Clemens: It’s extra money! Upfront!

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, it’s a fairly small distinction within the grand scheme of issues. In the event that they determine to commerce him subsequent yr, they might simply connect cash to make the identical factor occur

Ben Clemens: In the event that they had been bumping up in opposition to the cap, or planning on doing so subsequent yr, then possibly you would get some shenanigans round the way in which the cut up yeras are thought of if he’s traded after one. However principally I’d say if you happen to would signal him to 18 y1 12y2, you ought to be comfortable to do 15/15

a person has no title: Please sir, can the Pirates please goal a hitter or two this yr. And in the event that they had been to magically do that, who do you suppose could be their finest targets

Michael – FG since 2016: Ben – nice novel… err article.   

Would the MLBPA or brokers ever counsel going to a sure staff for a pillow contract to benefit from a stadium (ie hitters park for hitters, and so on).      It certain looks as if my Pirates get a LOT of LHPs in FA.

Ben Clemens: I believed these had been fairly fulfilling as a pair

Ben Clemens: If the Pirates wished to signal a hitter, I suppose thye’d possibly need a nook outfielder? You’ll be able to’t be pleased with Jack Suwinski there, and I doubt they’re going to maneuver on from Horwitz or Yorke immediately on the infield. In the meantime, a great shortstop prices greater than the Pirates will ever pay, in order that’s out, and this yr isn’t an incredible marketplace for them anyway

Ben Clemens: so like…. Bader? He may play a plus nook, and that’s very good in spacious PNC

Ben Clemens: failing that, I truthfully don’t see numerous choices. THere are numerous meh bats that the Pirates would possibly ultimately signal, that’s their MO, however I don’t suppose they’re nice matches for a lot of high gamers this yr

The ghost of CBAs but to come back: Wanting again at numerous the signings and extensions, or lack thereof, of the Cubs the previous a number of seasons, I get a robust sense that the Ricketts household believes there’s going to be a piece stoppage and potential main restructuring of the MLB labor panorama in 2027. Do you suppose there are particular groups which are approaching this offseason with specific thoughts to subsequent yr’s CBA negotiations? Do you suppose there are some groups in place to benefit from different groups lack of willingness to have interaction in long run offers? In that case, who?

Ben Clemens: I imply, certainly, proper?

Ben Clemens: I believe that ‘no staff is contemplating subsequent yr’s CBA negotiations’ is a very unrealistic place

Ben Clemens: As for what which means — properly, strive as I’d, I haven’t but gotten groups to ship me a spreadsheet of their precise greenback preferences and the way they range primarily based on otehr offers they make

Ben Clemens: so I’ll accept ‘the market will probably be extra segmented’

small e: In the event you’re the Crimson Sox, would you QO Giolito, or is there an excessive amount of threat of him accepting it? They’ve the again of the rotation fairly properly coated with younger guys and it looks as if he’s unlikely to be higher in 26 than 25.

Ben Clemens: Oh I positively wouldn’t

Ben Clemens: I assume he would hit the bid instantly

Ben Clemens: Gio is one other man who I’ve ranked behind a number of gamers I believe he’ll out-earn – however even then, that’s at 2/14

Ben Clemens: and as conference, I’m gonna maintain describing all contracts as years/AAV, in case I hadn’t mentiond that but

Ben Clemens: principally I believe that the peripherals had been fairly gross, and I believe that Steamer’s projection (4.70 ERA, 1.2 WAR in a full season) is about proper, possibly a bit optimistic

Charlie R: Assist me with some valuation confusion!  I maintain seeing commerce proposals (from writers, and so on. not followers) involving Jarren Duran, and I’m genuinely shocked by how way more folks suppose must be added in a commerce for a great SP (which is almost all of the proposals).  Even if you happen to suppose 2024 was an enormous outlier, Duran is a 3-4+ WAR outfielder with three extra years of staff management, but folks insist that the Crimson Sox must add a number of top-100 prospects to get somebody like Joe Ryan (or somebody related).  Even with pitchers usually commanding extra, I simply don’t get it – is the league view of Duran that a lot decrease than it appears?

Charlie R: And to be clear from my final query re: Duran, I’m not essentially saying the Twins would need him throughout a rebuild – you possibly can insert different pitchers.  It simply looks as if writers are closely discounting Duran’s worth and I’m undecided what I’m lacking.

Ben Clemens: Ah sure, ‘writers’

Ben Clemens: I’ll simply say this

Ben Clemens: Duran’s by no means getting traded, there’s a worth mismatch

Ben Clemens: like, 3-4+ WAR outfielder is one view

Ben Clemens: one other is that of the projection methods, who suppose he’s a 2-3 WAR man going ahead

Ben Clemens: late breakouts like Duran, particularly ones whose worth is constructed round issues like pace and protection, simply don’t undertaking properly

Ben Clemens: possibly he’ll be the exception. individuals are. However I believe that groups who could be buying Duran are treating him as a short-term proposition

Ben Clemens: as in, certain I like his age 28 season, however I’m down on the age 31 season that I’m additionally buying on this deal

Ben Clemens: and he’s not as low-cost as you’d like, 7.7 million in your second yr of arb (he already settled on that) is a fairly good tempo to cap out round 15-20 mil

Ben Clemens: principally I believe numerous groups want to have him as a great outfield starter for the current. However the Sox appear to be content material to attend for somebody to worth him like a cornerstone

Ben Clemens: That is sensible to me! In the event that they suppose he’s that, why would they commerce him? However I simply don’t see a lot happening right here because of this

wheelhouse: almost definitely yankee apart from bellinger within the high 50? i believe it’s <10% that they even significantly bid on tucker

Ben Clemens: I dunno, a bunch of relievers?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose they’re an incredible match for Tucker, agreed

Kyle: Did you’ve got a prediction for Story previous to him opting in?

Ben Clemens: positively not

Ben Clemens: I had him listed as ‘certain to say no decide out’

FA: How a lot does the upcoming lockout influence groups willingness to commit long run {dollars} this offseason?

Andrew: Is there any concern with how the market will reply to an impending lockout? Did your mannequin consider the larger markets groups considerations of a possible cap?

Ben Clemens: Oh, there’s particular concern, nevertheless it’s the sort of factor the place if I instructed you I may quantify the impact, I’d simply be mendacity

Ben Clemens: I erred on the aspect of shorter offers the place I may, which makes numerous sense, and my inflation charge for $/WAR is decrease than it has been lately

Ben Clemens: However realistically, I’m a man with a spreadsheet and a few expertise modeling monetary derivatives, not somebody sitting in a staff board room and getting you the true finest dust

Ben Clemens: It’s a guess

Ben Clemens: additionally: nobody’s sitting in a staff board room and getting you the true finest dust, sadly

Simon: You talked about Gleyber Torres, would you’re feeling higher about him as a possible goal if he was amendable to transferring to 1B or 3B this upcoming season?

Ben Clemens: Third? Positive. And I’m certain he’s amenable to a transfer there. First? No thanks, a primary baseman with a ten% above common batting line is simply not attention-grabbing to me

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose Torres has principally ever displayed the sort of offense that might make me excited to place him at first

Jack: Had a full of life dialogue with associates about Sonny Grey this morning. Appeared like we disagreed totally on how his no commerce clause will probably be wielded (we noticed Arenado be selective final offseason), and naturally the cash is an enormous impediment too with the backloading. Any ideas on probably touchdown spots?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really suppose the cash is an impediment, to be trustworthy. It’s attainable that the unusual form of the deal issues extra? So if Grey shoves this yr, he can grow to be a free agent

Ben Clemens: even when the staff buying him workouts its membership choice

Ben Clemens: like, you possibly can at all times pay down a part of a deal if you happen to suppose the cash is what’s holding you again. However it looks as if the larger concern right here is the dearth of sure management plus not understanding what he needs to do. So I don’t know how his no commerce clause will probably be wielded however presumably, he noticed how a lot enjoyable Arenado had together with his (appeared unhealthy, irritated Playing cards followers, bummer of a season afterwards) and is extra keen to maneuver

Sam: Hey Ben, thanks for all of the arduous work recently. Wanting ahead to all of the offseason protection. What am I lacking on Stop? I get the priority together with his two pitch reliance and command points, however I believe together with his observe file and age he clears $200 MM. In comparison with somebody like Framber, I battle to see how groups gained’t provide extra size given his age. Curious to listen to your ideas.

Ben Clemens: I’m not wild about both Stop or Valdez, to be trustworthy with you. I gave them each bumps as the highest arms available on the market, however I really feel like there are significant crimson flags for each

Ben Clemens: I’ve Stop getting just a little extra as a result of he’s youthful, however I believe that each of them are within the vary of ‘this man is good, I in all probability wouldn’t be snug with him as my ace’

Ben Clemens: For the file my very simplistic mannequin, which simply makes use of ZiPS, Steamer, and a bunch of precise historic information, would give him even much less

Ben Clemens: I believe that it’s mistaken, to be clear. I believe that the truth that groups like aces (the one locations the place contracts have been stunning to the lengthy aspect in latest yeras are premium starters) will assist him

Ben Clemens: however principally, I don’t anticipate many guys to get greater than 5 years this winter

Ben Clemens: I consider I solely have three, and one among them is the particular case of Murakami

Okra: You could have talked about a number of occasions the decline in Woodruff’s stuff.  However aside from fastball velocity, what are you seeing?  Over 12 begins his Ok, BB, SwStr%, barrel% (32%, 5%, 12%, 7%) all look nice and at profession norms.

Ben Clemens: these aren’t stuff

Ben Clemens: possibly his outcomes will work out

Ben Clemens: however like… I watched him pitch

Ben Clemens: and I went oh, his stuff’s not nearly as good

Ben Clemens: like, you possibly can’t have watched Woodruff this yr and never thought that

Ben Clemens: possibly you suppose “oh he’s getting it executed anyway”

Ben Clemens: however…. PitchingBot had him at a 55 stuff via 2023, 42 stuff in 2025. Stuff+ had him at 110 via 2023, 96 in 2025

Ben Clemens: this isn’t controversial. Possibly he can regulate and maintain getting related outcomes with meaningfully worse pitches. I might not make investments a ton of cash looking for out, if I had been GM’ing

G4: Appreciated your word within the Intro about mid-tier pitching attracting increased relative FA funding than hitters. With what we’ve seen in year-over-year efficiency volatility, are there any RPs in your listing that GM Ben would really chase at their predicted contracts?

Ben Clemens: I really like numerous the fellows behind the highest 50

Ben Clemens: I completely agree with the pure pressures dealing with groups right here, and I’d be performing the identical method as them

Ben Clemens: it’s simply not very attention-grabbing to me to signal a 1.5 WAR hitter (until i want a backup catcher, that’s a really totally different market)

Ben Clemens: I believe I’m in all probability increased on the relievers within the final 10 than followers are. I believe that they’re a very helpful solution to fill out your staff

fried rice: do these quasi-surprising opt-ins (flaherty, story, bieber) counsel gamers are frightened of what the market would possibly seem like

Ben Clemens: Okay, so Story’s is simply not stunning in any respect

Ben Clemens: the man has performed 900 PA within the final three years. He has a 92 wRC+ in that point. He’s 33. He’d barely be within the high 50 if he opted out, and it was like 3/20 or one thing

Ben Clemens: the opposite two? If I’d gotten these information factors per week in the past, I might in all probability be down a bit on my estimates, sure

Ben Clemens: I believed that each Flaherty and Bieber had been so cuspy that I do suppose this tells you brokers and gamers are down, directionally, available on the market

Ben Clemens: however in truth, this all occurred within the final day, and I used to be too busy writing a managerial report card and redoing some blurbs and finalizing the publication schedule (and changing these two guys within the 50 once they didn’t grow to be free brokers) that I simply caught with what i had

Thomas: Kinda shocked at how low Bichette is, provided that he’s at the very least two years youthful than all of the place gamers forward of him save Tucker. Do you simply suppose he’s going to get overpaid? I’d really feel higher about him than Alonso for certain, and possibly Bregman and Bellinger. Schwarber’s such an odd case that it’s robust to guage

Bret: What do you give the percentages that Bo Bichette is a SS in 2026 vs. a 2B?

Ben Clemens: so, yeah, that’s simply my desire order

Ben Clemens: if I had been the GM of a staff, I’d simply be afraid of giving Bichette a bag after which having him flip right into a pumpkin too quickly

Ben Clemens: the trajectory is terrifying!

Ben Clemens: I’m normally a threat it for the biscuit man in the case of high free brokers however I believe that Bichette “shouldn’t” clear that bar

Ben Clemens: like, if everybody evaluated gamers the precise method I do in my head

Ben Clemens: the factor is, he’s a Silver Slugger shortstop who’s 28, he’s gonna receives a commission. So regardless that I had a comparatively low view of him in desire order, I’m pretty assured somebody goes to offer him some huge cash. I don’t know who, to be clear, however I do suppose he’ll

JT: Btw didn’t Yamamoto’s stuff grade out worse than Woodruff’s this yr? They nonetheless owe him 260 M..

Ben Clemens: it didn’t! and whereas stuff fashions aren’t good, CHANGE in stuff fashions is extra helpful, as a result of it lets if somebody is getting worse or higher

Ben Clemens: however look, if you happen to suppose Yamamoto is worse than Woodruff, I don’t suppose I’m convincing you of something

Phim: I’m undecided if the difficulty with Devin Williams this yr was not with the ability to deal with NY, however the sample was that he would battle in excessive leverage and dominate when demoted (.075/.205/.104 line in opposition to in low leverage conditions). Small pattern but when I had been an enormous market GM I might at the very least be eager about that earlier than signing him as a more in-depth.

Phim: That mentioned, Williams appeared OK within the playoffs so who is aware of?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be trustworthy, one among my greatest leaks as a GM could be that i simply don’t consider on this crap

Ben Clemens: I might completely not be eager about that earlier than signing him, and possibly that’s to my detriment

Jack: You talked about you had 3 gamers getting 5 years or extra…I assume that’s Murakami such as you mentioned after which Tucker? Framber?

Ben Clemens: whoops, that ought to have mentioned ‘greater than 5 years’. And Tucker, Murakami, Bichette

not the lunch man: I get there are crimson flags about Imanaga however… does opting out of three/57 actually make sense for the Cubs? Is that how down the market is?

Ben Clemens: I used to be shocked by this one, although it’s really extra like 3/65 given the posting settlement (15% of complete deal will get paid to the BayStars)

Ben Clemens: however yeah, I used to be just a little shocked, however I additionally suppose that they could simply rapidly come to an settlement on an analogous deal and avoid wasting cash

Ben Clemens: one actually helpful factor about QO’ing a participant you wish to re-sign is that nobody else goes to offer them greater than $50 million if their worth is in that tough vary, as a result of there’s a vivid line: beneath 50, low-cost penalties, over 50, large penalties

Ben Clemens: so now the Cubs have kinda capped Imanaga’s market, and that makes negotiating simpler

Fin: Apart from Bregman, are there another high 20-30 free brokers you see nearly as good matches for the Crimson Sox? Schwarber and Alonso match properly in that the staff wants extra energy, however poorly in that they clog up DH (Alonso will in 2-3 years on the newest) once they have already got a surfeit of place gamers and have to rotate them round. What about SP–attainable that they signal a mid-tier one to go along with the one it looks as if they’re aiming to commerce for?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe that in the event that they wish to spend cash on free brokers and it’s not Bregman, it nearly needs to be pitching

Ben Clemens: I agree along with your evaluation of the bat-first guys, they simply don’t really feel like the correct matches to me. Possibly Ha-Seong Kim? I will probably be trustworthy and say I’ve thought of his market lower than the remainder of the fellows round him since I added him partway via the method, however he’s a far superior infield choice to what they’ve been working with

Okra: I might be dying to get Shota Imanaga to signal if I had been SF or Detroit.  He may actually excel in a ballpark that suppresses dwelling runs.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I may see these if the deal is brief. I actually am critical concerning the 50 mil factor, although

Ben Clemens: there’s a fairly sturdy chilling impact on guys whose market worth could be proper round that cutoff with out the QO, and I believe he’s gonna get hit arduous by it

robertobeers: Tyler Rogers because the fifth reliever off the board feels probably the most right place. With that in thoughts, how usually is is RA9-WAR going to be above the 1-4 guys over the following 3 seasons?

Ben Clemens: twice on common

Ben Clemens: I wished to place Rogers even increased, lol

Ben Clemens: in my first reduce of the listing he was the second reliever on the board. And in some unspecified time in the future I mentioned hey Ben, certain that is YOUR high 50, however you possibly can’t simply fully ignore what the market thinks

Billy: Giants seem to be the right match for Tucker, no? Want lefty bats, obtrusive gap in RF, extra star energy to at the very least faux to maintain up w LA, and so on

Ben Clemens: Yeah, now that I may completely see

Ben Clemens: that’s the sort of staff the place Tucker’s skill to play a mean nook outfield spot could be very helpful

Ben Clemens: after which yeah, lefty bats, I really suppose he’s a great match vibe sensible for SF as a chill star, Posey has been making an attempt so as to add stars

Ben Clemens: I’m probably not certain the cash provides up, however I guess you they’ll at the very least be kicking the tires

re: imanaga: The Cubs getting a large low cost on Imanaga due to surprisingly particular MLB guidelines once more could be kinda humorous. Two nickels, and so on.

Ben Clemens: I really suppose numerous guys get bought by this specific one…. however sure, two totally different guidelines getting Imanaga is annoying

Ben Clemens: and truthfully the posting rule sort of bought him AGAIN right here in that it made the Cubs owe greater than he was gonna get, which made the deal look worse to them

Jack: Just like the Giants-Tucker and Pirates bats query, I’m actually curious how the Phillies rework the outfield. I believe the one certain factor is Justin Crawford will get referred to as up and Castellanos is gone a method or one other. Tucker is large cash however who wouldn’t at the very least inquire?

Ben Clemens: oh 100%. That’s one other one which makes good sense to me

Gallo Enjoyer: The place would you charge Munetaka Murakami, on a scale of Joey Gallo (Yankees) to Joey Gallo (Rangers)

Ben Clemens: I watched a ton of video of Murakami for this, and I bought a ton of recommendation from Eric as properly, and yeah, I dunno man

Ben Clemens: very clearly, the expertise is there. Even with the strikeouts, he’s flat out obliterating NPB pitching. I believe I’m extra like Joey Gallo Rangers, however the error bars are monumental

Krusty: Your write-up is nice! Relating to Pete: Alonso redid his swing over the winter & improved considerably each when it comes to outputs & beneath the hood. Clearly, it improves his near-term outlook however how a lot influence can that kind of enchancment have on his ageing curve usually?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I believe that telling you with any certainty could be overstating my confidence, and actually the flexibility of projection methods

Ben Clemens: numerous hitters redo their swings

Ben Clemens: typically it adjustments their profession fully. typically it’s nice for a yr after which it breaks. typically it does nothing. You’d need to ask Dan for the precise set of the inputs he makes use of however I’ll say that I didn’t think about a swing change that a lot in any respect, I appeared much more on the beneath the hood stats and outcomes

Kevin: I’ve to be trustworthy, I’m just a little disillusioned in Fangraphs protection of recreation 7. I don’t suppose one article does that recreation (which was debatable the best recreation within the historical past of the game) justice.  Simply my two cents.

Ben Clemens: Actually, as somebody who simply put out 8000 phrases of content material about John Schneider prior to now two days, plus one other 8000 about free brokers, I believe this chat might be not probably the most affordable place to complain about this

Ben Clemens: however uh, yeah, sorry? Look, we cowl a LOT of baseball. I want we may cowl extra

Ben Clemens: We’re at all times making an attempt to cowl extra!

Jack: Is Schwarber actually going to get 5 years? The variance for his future is superb

Ben Clemens: I can’t see it, regardless that I too have seen rumors to that impact

Ben Clemens: Simply…. an excessive amount of for me, and too out of step with the way in which contracts have been going broadly

Okra: 2/30 for O’Hearn appears loopy to me since guys identical to him are at all times low-cost/accessible on the deadline.  Additionally, don’t need to squint too arduous to see your prospect turning right into a 1.5WAR 1B/OF/DH.  ideas?

Ben Clemens: I believe O’Hearn is obvious of the lifeless zone, principally

Ben Clemens: I may positively be mistaken

Ben Clemens: however I believe that he’s demonstrated a transparent sufficient talent for a number of years that I don’t need to look too arduous to seek out groups who would really feel assured that he may out-hit their finest lefty bat

Ben Clemens: finest lefty prospect bat

Ben Clemens: However he’s clearly cuspy. And that’s how the listing is, actually. AFter the cluster of hitters that O’Hearn is in (Bader, Polanco, O’Hearn, Kim, Realmuto, Ozuna), there are nearly no different bats of curiosity

Ben Clemens: I’ve two backup catchers and Luis Arraez, and no different hitters, getting greater than like 1/8

Ben Clemens: so I do suppose that if I’m mistaken on O’Hearn, it’s b/c you had been proper and he will get nearly nothing

Unhappy Mariners fan: Probabilities M’s signal Naylor?

Ben Clemens: I believe the probabilities of them signing a primary baseman/DH are very excessive. I don’t really feel that I’ve a lot edge in predicting who, to be trustworthy with you

Jack: Any spots you want Ranger to finish up on (assuming he gained’t be again in Philly sadly)? Blue Jays, Crimson Sox, Orioles, Giants, Padres all come to thoughts

Ben Clemens: oh, attention-grabbing. I believe the O’s are in all probability out in that they’re notably hesitant to spend free company cash on pitchers, and so Suarez could be a bizarre one to interrupt the financial institution for given their earlier conduct

Ben Clemens: Giants is sensible to me in the event that they don’t suppose they’re signing Tucker. Mainly, extra Logan Webbs appears good there

Joe R: Until I’m misunderstanding, it sounds such as you suppose Duran is staying in Boston (“I’ll simply say this Duran’s by no means getting traded, there’s a worth mismatch”). In that case, who’re they transferring? They need to clear that outfield logjam one way or the other, no?

Ben Clemens: Properly, I mentioned ‘they need to clear that outfield logjam one way or the other’ final winter

Ben Clemens: they usually traded Rafael Devers

Ben Clemens: so, I dunno. It’s a very attention-grabbing puzzle!

Ben Clemens: My two cents, as an armchair psychologist, is that they’re going to be very cussed, commerce nobody, and reside with the waste

Ben Clemens: I believe that endowment impact could be very actual, and that when you get an thought in your head for what it’s worthwhile to commerce somebody, it’s very arduous to accept much less

Ben Clemens: However I don’t suppose even the Sox know what they’re gonna do. So I positively don’t know

Blue Myself Prematurely: Who’re the perfect targets for the Jays this offseason? Bichette hurts to lose, however pitching looks as if a extra pressing want.

Ben Clemens: That is an previous one, however I actually loved the display screen title (this individual had rpeviously submitted the query half-typed)

Ben Clemens: I really suppose they need to signal Bichette, haha. Transfer him to second. I simply suppose it’s a yr the place I wish to be out of the pitching market if I can swing it. The Toronto rotation isn’t that dire. Possibly Bichette and a few good relievers? Or Merrill Kelly within the Max Scherzer function?

Visitor: Any likelihood of groups providing any of the elite SP an extended deal like Fried? Each Framber and Stop are estimated at 5

Ben Clemens: there’s positively an opportunity

Ben Clemens: these items are tremendous arduous! i’m simply guessing, ?

Ben Clemens: I believe that I’m on the quick finish for contract lengths nearly throughout the board

Ben Clemens: now, in my protection, MLB groups even have been for years

Ben Clemens: Right here’s a enjoyable method of placing it: I took the highest 40 names on my listing b/c that’s what number of one other expertise evaluator/author additionally projected

Ben Clemens: as in, they’d one for all 40

Ben Clemens: for these 40 gamers, I estimated 119 player-years price of contract

Ben Clemens: so like, 3 yeras on common? and only a few above 4

Ben Clemens: This individual was at 148, so almost 4 years on common

Ben Clemens: and I believe they’re just about the median

Ben Clemens: I’m VERRRRRRRRRY heavy on the quick deal plan this yr

Okra: Does the looming strike in 2027 tank the commerce worth of fellows with 2 years of management left?  M Gore, Joe Ryan, and so on

Ben Clemens: Attention-grabbing query, however I don’t actually suppose so

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, these two guys are among the most attention-grabbing valuation puzzles, as a result of I believe they’re who numerous pitching-needy groups really need

Ben Clemens: like, you don’t really need seven years of Dylan Stop or no matter. You need two! and Joe Ryan can provide you that

Ben Clemens: so I believe that the Twins and Nats may have numerous suitors for them this winter. I’m tremendous curious to see what Washington’s plan seems to be like with the whole FO overhaul after so a few years of continuity

Visitor: Any sensible choices you see as a great match for Cleveland?  They’ve little or no on the books for ’26, however have proven little willingness to spend.  Some assistance on offense is clearly wanted

Ben Clemens: Austin Hedges

Ben Clemens: (really, Hedges has already signed an extension with the Guardians)

Ben Clemens: I used to be joking with Meg that we must always crowdsource Hedges only for funsies, and that’s how I discovered thta he signed a precise duplicate of final yr’s deal once more

Ben Clemens: no, um, they need to be making an attempt to signal O’Hearn if his market really dips

Ben Clemens: the one awkward half about that’s that there are two nice lefty starters within the ALC, however hey, possibly Skubal will get dealt

Ben Clemens: principally I can’t consider they go into subsequent yr with CJ Kayfus as a DH, like our rosters have them down now

Ben Clemens: and that appears like an affordable ish place so as to add gamers, the place if you happen to aren’t buying on the high of the market (examine!) and don’t have any nice hitters within the higher minors (can’t say for certain, nevertheless it doesn’t look all that nice, they appear to have a ton of center infielders like at all times)

Ben Clemens: then you possibly can go signal the ‘lifeless zone’ bats who otehr groups don’t have any use for

Ben Clemens: Okay, this was actually enjoyable, however I’ve to run and go sleep for the following 75 days

Ben Clemens: I’m taking the following week and a half off, however I’ll return to my common Monday chat window after that, and possibly take many extra questions on foolish/non-baseball stuff then than I did at the moment.

Ben Clemens: Have an exquisite week everybody, and thanks a lot for tuning in and taking the time to ask questions.