The Dodgers Hope Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Incredible Run Can Push Them To Sport 7

For the primary time all season — certainly, the primary time since Sport 5 of final yr’s Division Collection towards the Padres — the Dodgers are dealing with elimination. A win on Friday night time in Toronto will proceed their season, forcing Sport 7 of the World Collection, whereas a loss will finish it, making the Blue Jays champions for the primary time in 32 years. Since their 18-inning victory in Sport 3 late Monday night time native time (and Tuesday morning for a lot of the continental United States and Canada) on Freddie Freeman’s walk-off residence run, the Dodgers have regarded as if they’re sleepwalking. They have been totally outplayed by the Blue Jays in each Video games 4 and 5, with tough performances by their starters, relievers, hitters, and fielders. For Sport 6, Los Angeles will flip to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, hoping he can proceed his great October run and prolong the season for yet one more night time.

In the course of the Nationwide League Championship Collection, the Dodgers rotation completely dominated the Brewers, posting a 0.63 ERA and 1.88 FIP in 28 2/3 innings, however within the World Collection it’s been a distinct story, as these starters have been touched for a 4.88 ERA and 4.55 FIP in 31 1/3 innings. To be honest, a few of these runs are attributable to supervisor Dave Roberts’ making an attempt to squeeze a couple of extra outs from Blake Snell in Video games 1 and 5 and Shohei Ohtani in Sport 4 as an alternative of handing clear innings over to an more and more erratic bullpen. The harm from these makes an attempt — each starters mixed to document solely two outs (each by Snell in Sport 5) and bequeath seven baserunners, all of whom later scored, to a few completely different relievers — blew these three video games huge open. Yamamoto not solely has produced the Dodgers’ solely high quality begin of the sequence, but additionally the one reduction from their relievers, because the 27-year-old righty spun a four-hit full recreation on 105 pitches in Sport 2, his second time going the gap in as many turns. If that wasn’t bad-ass sufficient, he warmed up within the prime of the 18th inning of Sport 3, prepared to alleviate Will Klein if wanted.

As you’ve in all probability seen by now, Yamamoto’s three-hit full recreation in Sport 2 of the NLCS was the primary by a postseason starter for the reason that Astros’ Justin Verlander went the gap towards the Yankees in Sport 2 of the 2017 ALCS. Yamamoto is simply the sixth starter with a number of full video games in a single postseason in the course of the Wild Card period, and the primary in 24 years to go back-to-back not less than as soon as.

Previous to Schilling, it’s a must to dial again to 1992, when the Braves’ Tom Glavine — the final to have such a streak incorporating not less than one World Collection begin (each, in his case) — and the Pirates’ Tim Wakefield every had two full video games. Earlier than that, it’s a must to return to 1988, when the Dodgers’ Orel Hershiser had three straight, together with two World Collection begins.

Yamamoto isn’t any stranger to finish video games. Whereas he has but to throw one in his 48 regular-season begins with the Dodgers, he totaled 14 throughout his last 5 seasons (2019–23) with the Orix Buffaloes of the Japanese Pacific League, with a excessive of six (together with 4 shutouts) in 2021, his first of three straight seasons profitable each the league’s MVP and the Eiji Sawamura Award, the NPB Cy Younger equal (given to 1 pitcher for each Japanese leagues, because the Cy Younger was in MLB from 1956–66).

Not all of Yamamoto’s postseason begins have been full video games, and even gems. He was excellent in Sport 2 of the Wild Card Collection towards the Reds, permitting simply two runs (each unearned) on 4 hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings, putting out 9 alongside the way in which. These runs have been unearned as a result of Austin Hays’ fly ball, which might have been the third out of the primary inning, clanked off proper fielder Teoscar Hernández’s glove, and Sal Stewart adopted with a two-run single. In his solely dud of the postseason — and the Dodgers’ solely October loss previous to the World Collection — Yamamoto scuffled towards the Phillies in Sport 3 of the Division Collection, permitting three runs on six hits and one stroll in 4 innings earlier than getting the hook.

Nonetheless, it’s powerful to complain when Yamamoto has pitched to a 1.57 ERA and a couple of.86 FIP in 28 2/3 innings throughout this postseason. Solely three different pitchers with not less than 10 innings have posted decrease ERAs, particularly Cam Schlittler (1.26 ERA in 14 1/3 innings), Jacob Misiorowski (1.50 ERA in 12 innings), and Tyler Glasnow (1.50 ERA in 18 innings). That trio has mixed for 5 begins and 4 reduction appearances; it takes two of these pitchers to approximate the variety of innings Yamamoto has thrown this fall.

That is precisely the form of efficiency the Dodgers had hoped for after they signed Yamamoto to a record-setting 12-year, $325 million contract in December 2023. He was excellent final season, posting a 3.00 ERA and a couple of.61 FIP in the course of the common season, however made simply 18 begins totaling 90 innings, lacking practically three months as a consequence of a rotator cuff pressure. He had his ups and downs in the course of the Dodgers’ championship run (3.86 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 18 2/3 innings), although the excessive factors — 5 shutout innings in Sport 5 of the Division Collection towards the Padres, 6 1/3 innings of one-hit, one-run ball towards the Yankees in Sport 2 of the World Collection — have been an enormous a part of his staff’s triumph.

This season, Yamamoto not solely averted the injured record, however he additionally made the NL All-Star staff. He posted a 0.90 ERA by means of his first seven begins, had 10 begins of not less than 5 innings with no runs allowed (tied with Drew Rasmussen for third within the majors behind Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, who every had 12), and had a significant league-high six begins through which he allowed only one hit. That rely consists of his September 6 begin towards the Orioles at Camden Yards, a recreation that confirmed off each the perfect and the worst of the 2025 Dodgers. Yamamoto matched his season excessive of 10 strikeouts whereas no-hitting Baltimore for 8 2/3 innings earlier than Jackson Holliday hit a wall-scraping solo homer. After Roberts pulled him, Blake Treinen allowed all three batters he confronted to achieve (double, hit-by-pitch, wild pitch, stroll) within the first recreation of what’s turn out to be an epic slide into distress, after which for the second night time in a row, Tanner Scott allowed a walk-off hit, on this case a two-run single by Emmanuel Rivera. So it goes.

In 30 begins totaling 173 2/3 innings, Yamamoto ranked second within the NL in ERA (2.49), third in strikeout fee (29.4%), fifth in each FIP (2.94) and WAR (5.0), and sixth in strikeout-walk differential (20.8%). Whereas he hasn’t missed as many bats within the postseason, he’s been extra environment friendly, trimming his pitches per plate look by strolling lower than half as many batters, and slicing his residence run fee as nicely:

Yamamoto’s decrease stroll and residential run charges have helped to offset his decrease strikeout fee. He’s additionally shaved practically 50 factors off his BABIP, although a more in-depth take a look at his Statcast numbers reveals a contact profile similar to the common season:

Yamamoto is definitely permitting barrels and hard-hit balls with larger frequency than within the common season, which when mixed together with his decrease strikeout fee, ought to spell bother. He’s survived and even thrived as a result of the hole between his precise and anticipated numbers on these batted balls has been a lot wider than in the course of the common season. A few of that’s attributable to the Dodgers’ protection, which ranked eighth out of 12 in my analysis of playoff groups’ defenses and has had some vital lapses this October (together with the aforementioned dropped fly ball by Hernández); nonetheless, Los Angeles fielders have largely risen to the event behind Yamamoto.

A more in-depth look reveals that the precise vs. anticipated hole has been particularly huge on hard-hit balls, these with exit velocities of 95 mph or increased, and even increased on hard-hit balls to the batter’s pull facet:

Taking this desk along with the one above, we now have a easy through-line: Primarily based on the contact Yamamoto gave up in the course of the common season, batters fell 33 factors in need of their .315 xSLG, however within the postseason, that hole has expanded to a 145-point shortfall on a .385 xSLG. On hard-hit balls, they fell 30 factors in need of their .796 xSLG in the course of the common season, however within the postseason, that hole is as much as 283 factors under an .873 xSLG. And on hard-hit pulled balls — a couple of third of his hard-hit balls, and about 15% of his batted balls — the place they exceeded their .756 xSLG by 86 factors in the course of the common season, they’ve fallen 450 factors shy of their postseason 1.117 xSLG. We’re in small-sample territory all through this array, so these postseason divides are more and more excessive and primed for regression, however they’re what’s gotten Yamamoto and the Dodgers thus far.

In Sport 2, the Blue Jays had 10 hard-hit balls towards Yamamoto, produced by seven of the staff’s 10 batters (together with pinch-hitter Bo Bichette) — all however righty Isiah Kiner-Falefa (for whom Bichette pinch-hit within the seventh) and lefties Andrés Giménez and Daulton Varsho. But of these 10 hard-hit balls, solely George Springer’s first-inning double, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s third-inning single (a 113.9-mph rocket that ricocheted off the left subject wall), and Alejandro Kirk’s sacrifice fly ended up serving to Toronto’s trigger. The Blue Jays hit .222 and slugged .333 on these hard-hit balls, the place they may have been anticipated to hit .504 and slug .955. That’s a whole lot of bullets dodged.

Although already baked into the anticipated stats, there are a few issues mitigating the additional quantity of onerous contact Yamamoto has surrendered. For one, his groundball fee has bumped up from 52.8% in the course of the common season to 55.1% within the postseason, together with his groundball-to-fly ball ratio rising from 1.69 to 1.95. In the meantime, his pull fee has dropped from 37.0% to 31.6%, and his pulled air fee has held fairly regular, from 12.1% within the common season (which positioned him within the 91st percentile) to 12.6% within the postseason. And whereas he’s been much less efficient with runners on base (.292 wOBA allowed) than in the course of the common season (.256 wOBA), he’s reduce his share of plate appearances with runners on from 65% within the common season to 54% within the playoffs. Maintaining the bases clear has been essential to his success.

The breadth and effectiveness of Yamamoto’s arsenal is what’s enabled him to pitch deep into video games. It is a pitcher who has six choices with constructive run values, in keeping with Statcast:

In the course of the postseason, Yamamoto has remained pretty constant as regards to his pitch combine, utilizing his total arsenal towards righties however ditching the sinker and slider towards lefties. The primary distinction is that he’s dialed again the utilization of his four-seamer towards batters of each palms as a result of it’s been knocked round (.342 wOBA, .416 xwOBA), and as an alternative has relied extra upon his curveball, which has been his only pitch this postseason (.104 wOBA, .199 xwOBA, 32.6% whiff) — much more efficient than his splitter (.134 wOBA, .260 xwOBA, 32.7% whiff), which gave batters extra bother in the course of the common season. He had a considerable reverse platoon break up in the course of the common season (as was the case in 2024), however he’s greater than evened that out within the playoffs.

Previous to Sport 1, I wrote about Snell’s great run by means of the primary three rounds whereas cautioning that the Blue Jays’ aggressive, contact-oriented method on the plate might result in sufficient seeing-eye hits (or ambush residence runs) to vary his recreation plan. Not solely has his BABIP jumped from .154 by means of his first three postseason turns to .367 within the World Collection, however he surrendered back-to-back homers on two of his first three pitches (all four-seamers) in Sport 5. Nice game-planning and regression generally catch as much as even the perfect of ’em. The Dodgers must hope that for yet one more night time, Yamamoto can keep away from these perils.