It’s alright. I’ve run the numbers, and also you’re not imagining it. Individuals actually are bunting extra throughout the playoffs. You actually have been screaming “WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT DROPPING DOWN A BUNT RIGHT NOW?” at your tv extra typically than regular. Your neighbors have observed. The owners affiliation goes to become involved. That is an intervention.
However you’re not flawed. Thus far, 1.1% of all postseason plate appearances have ended with a bunt. That’s 0.4 proportion factors above the common season mark of 0.7%, a rise of 57%. It’s additionally the very best postseason bunt charge since 2017. Not solely are we seeing extra bunts than we did within the common season, we’re seeing extra postseason bunts than we’ve in years! That 0.4-point hole is the very best we’ve seen since not less than 2008.
This is probably not shocking to you. It at all times looks like there are extra bunts within the postseason than the common season as a result of groups are attempting to scratch out runs in a more durable offensive surroundings. And we discover them much more acutely as a result of each plate look will get put underneath a microscope within the playoffs. However as you may see from the graph above, that hasn’t essentially been true for fairly some time now. For the reason that starting of the pitch monitoring period in 2008, the common season bunt charge has been greater than the postseason charge in 14 of the previous 18 years.
This yr, the sacrifice bunt charge particularly has gone means up. Thus far, sac bunts have made up 0.7% of all postseason plate appearances. That’s the very best charge within the final 10 years and it’s double the 2024 charge. It makes it look like groups are turning to small ball as a result of they’re unusually determined for runs. However offense hasn’t been all that dangerous this October. The league has a wRC+ of 93 throughout the playoffs, and whereas that’s decrease than it was in 2023 and 2024, it’s nonetheless greater than regular. Over the previous 10 years, the typical wRC+ within the playoffs is 88.3, and over the previous 5 years, it’s 92.7. So sure, offense is down in October as regular, but when something, it’s down by a bit lower than regular. The bunts aren’t coming as a result of it’s impulsively even more durable to hit throughout the playoffs.
The one playoff groups which have bunted much less continuously than they did throughout the common season are the Reds, the Guardians, the Brewers, the Mariners, and the Blue Jays. If that sounds to you want three of the 4 groups that made it to the League Championship Collection, you’re not flawed, however I’d warning towards concluding from this that not bunting is the rationale for his or her success. Even for the groups that made it to the LCS, we’re nonetheless speaking a couple of very small pattern dimension. And groups that make it deep into the playoffs typically accomplish that as a result of they’re hitting effectively – giving them much less incentive to play small ball.
Nonetheless, the general form of the numbers makes it clear. We actually are seeing far more bunts. It’s not as a result of bunts are impulsively working very effectively. I created a fast bunt success charge metric, dividing the variety of bunts hits and sacrifice bunts by the overall variety of bunts. Over the previous 18 seasons, the league has had successful charge of 71% within the postseason, and this yr, we’re proper on tempo at 70%. There’s nothing particular about these bunts. They’re doing what they’re supposed to do exactly as typically as they at all times have. However I discussed earlier that the speed of sacrifice bunts particularly has elevated, so what they’re supposed to do is way more boring – and more durable to justify in response to the run expectancy tables – than regular. Sports activities Data Options has been monitoring bunt hit proportion (the share of bunts that flip into hits) going again to 2002. Throughout the common season, the league had a bunt hit charge of 26.9%. Within the postseason, due to all these sacrifices, we’re at simply 9%, the third-lowest mark over that whole interval. What I can’t measure with out digging into the play-by-play information is whether or not the profitable sacrifice bunts have really changed into runs. It definitely hasn’t felt like that’s the case, particularly if you happen to’re a Mariners fan.
In order that’s the place we’re. Bunts have gone means up this postseason, and whereas I can show it on a pleasant graph, I can’t actually provide you with any broad conclusions about why this may be. To some extent, it must be the residue of a small pattern dimension. Postseason stats are noisy, particularly for unusual occasions. We’re speaking about simply 33 whole postseason bunts, so sure particular person components could make an outsized distinction. For instance, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Andy Pages have mixed for 5 bunts, not less than partially as a result of they’ve been mired in dismal slumps, making bunting look like a viable various to swinging the bat. Crow-Armstrong bunted simply 14 instances throughout the common season, and Pages didn’t bunt even as soon as, however collectively they’ve accounted for 15% of all postseason bunts.
There are many different components to contemplate. It’s unlikely however doable that what we’re noticing actually is a shift in technique. It’s undoubtedly too early to name it a development, nevertheless it’s not less than value stating that 2023 and 2025 are each amongst these 4 years wherein the postseason charge has been greater. It may simply be the predilections of the managers whose groups made the postseason. It may very well be a response to the way in which sure video games have performed out. Nevertheless it actually is true. You might have been subjected to extra bunts, and vanishingly few of them have been of the thrilling, profitable bunt hit selection. I’m sorry about that. You deserve higher.