Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Postseason for the Ages

In his first postseason since signing a 14-year, $500 million extension, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has powered the Blue Jays to inside one win of their first journey to the World Sequence since 1993. The 26-year-old slugger continued his October heroics throughout Sunday evening’s ALCS Sport 6 in Toronto, serving to the Blue Jays stave of elimination by the hands of the Mariners by clubbing his third house run of the collection and sixth of the postseason whereas additionally displaying a key little bit of baserunning savvy. Guerrero has rebounded from a season-ending stoop to place up some completely astronomical numbers this fall.

Sunday evening’s recreation didn’t begin out that means for Guerrero. As they’d completed in Video games 1 and a pair of in Toronto, and Sport 5 in Seattle, the Mariners stored him from doing main harm via his first two plate appearances in opposition to starter Logan Gilbert. Within the first inning, with Nathan Lukes on first, Guerrero chased a low slider and grounded softly right into a forceout. Within the second, with the Blue Jays having rallied for 2 runs and with George Springer on first, he hit a scorching 116-mph grounder to the left aspect, the place third baseman Eugenio Suárez made a diving cease, then threw to second from his knees to finish the inning.

That 116-mph exit velocity was Guerrero’s hardest-hit ball of the postseason, and the eighth-hardest contact of any participant this fall; the opposite seven, by the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Schwarber, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Decide, all went for hits. No such luck for Vladito.

By the point Guerrero led off the fifth inning, the Blue Jays led 4-0. On a 1-1 depend, Gilbert hung a curveball; Guerrero didn’t hit it as laborious as in his earlier plate look — a mere 102.6 mph — however he elevated it to his pull aspect for a 384-foot homer to left discipline, boosting the result in 5-0.

Guerrero figured within the Blue Jays’ subsequent run as effectively when Matt Brash — the one Mariner to strike him out on this collection — plunked him on the left elbow. After Alejandro Kirk singled, Brash threw a wild pitch; Guerrero tore for third base, and when catcher Cal Raleigh’s throw sailed into foul territory in left discipline, he scored standing up — and vented some emotion.

In his ultimate plate look of the evening, with two outs within the eighth, Guerrero shattered his bat and managed to bloop a high-and-tight 98.5-mph sinker from Carlos Vargas into left-center for a single. Once you’re on, you’re on.

Thus far within the ALCS, Guerrero is hitting .409/.519/.955 (285 wRC+) with three doubles to go together with these three house runs in 27 plate appearances. Through the Division Sequence in opposition to the Yankees, he hit .529/.550/1.059 (324 wRC+) with three homers and only one strikeout in 20 PA. If there’s any comfort for the Mariners, it’s that his three ALCS lengthy balls signify his solely runs batted in throughout the collection, whereas throughout the Division Sequence, he drove in 9. Amongst his three hits within the Blue Jays’ 10-1 victory in Sport 1 was a solo homer off Luis Gil, and he later added a sacrifice fly. In Sport 2, he collected three hits once more in a 13-7 win, together with a grand slam off Will Warren. He put the Blue Jays up 2-0 with a two-run first inning homer off Carlos Rodón in Sport 3, however the Yankees got here again to win that one, 9-6. Guerrero once more put the Blue Jays forward in Sport 4, with a first-inning RBI single off Cam Schlittler, and whereas the Yankees quickly tied the sport, the Blue Jays gained 5-2 and superior.

The Mariners shut Guerrero and the Blue Jays down throughout the first two video games of the ALCS; he went 0-for-7 with a stroll whereas the group scored simply 4 runs. He hit with only one runner on base in 4 plate appearances within the opener, however had runners on in his first three of 4 occasions up in Sport 2; he grounded out with Lukes on second within the first inning in opposition to Gilbert, advancing Lukes to 3rd, however when Guerrero hit a 109-mph grounder with runners on first and third within the third inning, it was proper at second baseman Jorge Polanco, a routine play. The rating was tied 3-3 at that time, however by the point he batted once more, in opposition to Eduard Bazardo (who induced a delicate grounder), the Blue Jays have been down 6-3, and when he confronted Emerson Hancock to guide off the eighth, they have been down 10-3 (he walked).

The unstoppable model of Guerrero returned throughout the Blue Jays’ 13-4 win in Sport 3, when he went 4-for-4 with two doubles, a house run, and a stroll. Going through George Kirby, he hit a scorching chopper to Suárez, who elevated to spear the ball however threw to first wildly; Guerrero was credited with an infield single. He smacked a double off Kirby and scored throughout the Blue Jays’ five-run third; hit a 406-foot solo shot off Kirby to begin the fifth and lengthen the result in 7-2; was deliberately walked with a runner on second and first base open within the sixth (he scored on Kirk’s three-run homer); and doubled once more off Luke Jackson within the eighth, by which level the Jays led 12-2. His 2-for-5 effort in Sport 4 included a third-inning single off Luis Castillo with a runner on first, and a 359-foot solo house run off Bazardo within the seventh inning, which prolonged the Toronto result in 6-2.

The Mariners minimized the harm Guerrero might do throughout their 6-2 victory in Sport 5. He ripped a 113.5-mph double into the left-center hole in opposition to Bryce Miller (in opposition to whom he went 0-for-3 in Sport 1) within the first inning, nevertheless it got here with two outs and no one on, and he ended up stranded. He was deliberately walked twice and didn’t rating both time, first drawing a free go from Miller within the fourth following Lukes’ leadoff double and the Blue Jays down 1-0, after which once more within the seventh from Bryan Woo, with two outs and a runner on first and the Jays main 2-1. Between these walks, with males on first and second, two outs, and the rating nonetheless tied within the fifth, Brash struck him out on a sinker that at greatest could have grazed the inside fringe of the strike zone; had Guerrero not swung, it may need been ball 4. The Mariners ultimately got here again to win within the eighth on a game-tying skyscraper solo shot by Raleigh after which a grand slam by Suárez.

By a number of measures, Guerrero’s postseason efficiency stands among the many biggest since division play was launched in 1969. I want that cutoff for such comparisons as a result of the growth of the postseason from a World Sequence-only affair to 1 with a number of rounds of playoffs bulks up the pattern sizes. No one has ever taken greater than 36 plate appearances in a seven-game World Sequence (the report is 37 in an eight-game collection), and we’re not even to this yr’s World Sequence but, so if we wish to put what Vladito is doing into perspective, a superb place to begin is at a 40-PA cutoff. By wRC+, he’s second to date:

That’s some esteemed firm. Guerrero’s slugging proportion ranks second solely to Beltrán, and his on-base proportion fifth. By way of Blue Jays postseason historical past, he’s outdone the slash stats of Molitor, the 1993 World Sequence MVP, and he’s surpassed 2015 hero José Bautista’s complete of 4 homers. For as nice as his run has been, the Blue Jays want yet one more win to make sure he avoids the fates of Alvarez and Beltrán, each of whom missed out on the World Sequence regardless of exceptional particular person performances.

All of this follows an everyday season through which Guererro was superb (.292/.381/.467, 137 wRC+), if not the unstoppable drive that he was in 2024 (.323/.396/.544, 164 wRC+) or ’21 (.311/.401/.601, 166 wRC+). He closed the season in a funk, batting simply .256/.299/.263 with out a house run over his ultimate 21 video games, and completed with 23 homers, his lowest full-season complete; he hit 30 final yr, and averaged 34 from 2021–24.

Through the common season, Guerrero demonstrated new-found selectivity by setting profession lows in total swing charge (42.2%), in-zone swing charge (61.1%), and chase charge (21.2%). Thus far in October, he’s outdone the final of these (20.5%), and whereas his different charges aren’t even decrease, each his 43.6% total swing charge and 63.9% zone swing charge are considerably under his 2024 and profession marks. The massive deal is that he isn’t lacking; he’s minimize his swinging strike charge from 8.4% to five.8% — 9 swings and misses in 10 video games — and struck out in simply 4.4% of his plate appearances, down from 13.8% within the common season.

We’re in particularly small pattern territory when it comes to particular person pitch sorts, however one factor that stands out is that the one pitch Guerrero notably struggled in opposition to throughout the common season was changeups, in opposition to which he hit simply .239 and slugged .324, with only one house run and a 25.6% whiff charge. He’s seen solely 10 changeups within the postseason, however he’s 2-for-4 with a pair of homers in opposition to them (off Gil and Rodón) and has but to whiff on one. Moreover, he hit simply .275 and slugged .407 in opposition to sliders with a 25.3% whiff charge throughout the common season, however to date he’s 2-for-7 with a house run and a double (each off Kirby), good for an .857 SLG.

When he has linked, Guerrero is hitting the ball a lot more durable and within the air extra usually than he did within the common season:

For comparability, Guerrero’s profession lows in groundball charge and groundball/fly ball ratio have been in 2021 (44.8% and 1.23, respectively); that yr, he set profession highs in common exit velo (95.1 mph), xSLG (.597), and barrel and hard-hit charges (15.1% and 55.2%, respectively) as effectively. His highest common launch angle was in 2023 (10.5 levels); he averaged 9.4 levels throughout that unbelievable ’21 marketing campaign.

Guerrero’s inconsistency in the case of hitting the ball within the air stays the massive what-if in his profession. His bat velocity is elite, and he can put a cost into the ball with the most effective of them; his most exit velocity this yr (120.4 mph) outdid these of Ohtani (120) and Decide (118.1). These sluggers hit fly balls with larger consistency, nonetheless, and find yourself doing extra harm, which locations their manufacturing on one other degree. In fact, in addition they strike out way more usually than Guerrero, and as we’ve seen again and again this fall, contact does have its virtues in forcing defenses to make large performs in high-pressure conditions. As the 2 aforementioned performs by Suárez exhibit, typically they make ’em, and typically they don’t.

No one’s going to maintain this degree of efficiency ceaselessly, however what Guerrero has completed has positioned him within the pantheon amongst October performances. Whether or not or not the Blue Jays attain the World Sequence, they need to be thrilled with what their seeing from their half-billion-dollar slugger.