Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/10/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, y’all, it’s cloudy and wet right here in Tempe because the weekend slate has been disrupted by the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla. We have to precip, although, so it’s all good. Seems like starters for tomorrow’s sport bought moved up a day? At the least it seems Rhett Lowder has. Let’s focus on…

Hazmat Corntail: The place do you see Jonathan Lengthy becoming in long run with the Cubs, or does he want a commerce? He appears fairly blocked proper now

Eric A Longenhagen: Multi-positional half time nook man

Ben: Hey Eric, hope you’re doing effectively. Who’re you most enthusiastic about seeing within the AFL and why is it Alfredo Duno?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s actually simply the blokes I haven’t seen, or no less than haven’t seen shortly, which is nearly at all times gamers from orgs primarily based in Florida.

Eric A Longenhagen: Additionally, and maybe this was already reported however clearly I’m off the socials so I don’t know, Josue De Paula has a hammy factor and might be a pair weeks out.

Jason: Hello, simply need you to interrupt down the distinction between low contact energy hitters Bryce Eldridge and Lazaro Montes. Why is one so excessive and one not ranked? Not debating the rankings as a lot as I’m curious what the distinction is. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good query. Eldridge contact information: 67% general, 78% in zone
Montes contact information: 62% general, 68% in zone

Eric A Longenhagen: For Eldridge we no less than have a number of examples of gamers with contact charges that low who thrive:

Eric A Longenhagen: Whereas there are none on the charges Montes makes. Like zero.

Miller: Wouldn’t it be out of the peculiar for a brand new PBO/GM rent to enter an org and say, I wasn’t as excessive on sure prospects in current drafts that this crew chosen so let me use their worth proper now to flip for gamers I’m extra keen on?

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda assume this occurred in San Diego proper after they employed Preller with Trea Turner and so forth. I do assume there are gamers in a brand new PoBO’s org who they most likely have preconceived notions and opinions about, and that one could be extra inclined to maneuver on from the gamers you don’t like a lot

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be

Visitor: Any new traits or developments that you’re listening to that could be the subsequent analytical leverage that groups try to discover?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna learn Henry Abbott’s new e book and ask folks about it

Visitor: Is there something new you’ve seen or intel obtained on Kaelen Culpepper primarily based on the season he had?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply the complete season hit information, which is fairly optimistic from a contact standpoint and a shade under common from an influence standpoint. My evaluation of his protection is stronger now than when he was in faculty. Good prospect.

Kate: Unsure how a lot dope you’ve gotten on this 12 months’s DSL crop thus far, however curious your ideas on Kevin Alvarez‘s 2025.  To my eye, his 12 months appeared fairly good from a stat line perspective as he made a ton of contact and appeared to have a superb strategy and his big body would appear to portend massive incoming energy.  Nevertheless, I feel I heard the EV information was fairly meh.  How a lot do you depend on physique projection for pop with a man like this and the way a lot do you bear in mind the present EV information (which clearly must be adjusted for age and stage)?

Eric A Longenhagen: His present EV information is kinda meh however not *dangerous*, and also you’re proper that an adjustment for the extent alone must be made as a result of guys within the DSL aren’t throwing all that onerous….

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tremendous duper projectable, I take into account him an offseason high 100 candidate. My grade when he was popping out was fairly aggressive and he’s no less than held serve on that rating.

George: I used to be very inquisitive about Paul Tobinis interview on DC sports activities radio yesterday. Talked lots about higher marrying participant acquisition with improvement. Along with your data of the present state of the system and construction of the Nats, how lengthy would that form of change take to see outcomes? Is it so damaged that it’s extra of a 3 12 months course of?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oops, I’ll don one after the opposite…

Eric A Longenhagen: To George’s query: It depends upon what sort of participant dev infrastructure they have already got in place, each from a knowledge warehousing and processing standpoint, in addition to a technological one. If no less than a few of that stuff is already in place then I feel we’ve seen from some current regime modifications, together with in Boston beneath Breslow, that pitchers might be modified and improved actually shortly. I’d say by 2027 we’ll wanna begin taking a look at WSH arms with an try to acknowledge patterns of modifications, perhaps extra via 2028 so far as draft technique is anxious.

Eric A Longenhagen: For RS: In all probability in that order. I may see Stage sneaking into the again of the 50 FV tier, I believed he had the arm for SS however not all of my sources assume he stays there. He’s a smaller child. Josuar was just a little over-aggressive for me this fall however holy cow the instruments, particularly the protection. Seems like younger Lindor on protection.

Kate: Did you get any seems to be at Letson after he got here again late within the 12 months?  If that’s the case, how did he look?  Is that this a man we’re at all times going to wish to ding FV-wise till he exhibits he can deal with a certain quantity of innings?

Eric A Longenhagen: i didn’t see him. Lemme seems to be on the scout WhatsApp group actual fast from the time interval earlier than he returned to affiliated ball to see if his identify is on a lineup card from that week or two, I may perhaps discover somebody who got here throughout him…

Eric A Longenhagen: However you’re most likely right concerning the innings load factor. A lot as I’d just like the Picks to Click on feather in my cap, the strategy of getting sturdy, confirmed, near-ready guys within the high 100 (like Parker Messick getting into the 12 months, as an example, and never some hard-throwing teenager in rookie ball) has been extra right

Eric A Longenhagen: Letson continues to be perhaps two years away from debuting, too. He’s a post-2027 40-man add.

Devon: Hey Eric! I used to be interested in the way you deal with reviews on make-up or behind the scenes stuff. Are there situations the place you’re aware about one thing that you simply may not be capable of put in your written evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. It cuts each methods, generally you study the child is nice. For the dangerous stuff it may be difficult to cowl as a result of a) in trying to do that job on the scale I do, I can’t get thorough make-up reviews for each single dude, and so making use of it just for some guys feels unsuitable….

Eric A Longenhagen: b) generally you’re feeling icky for ding’ing a man’s grade primarily based on stuff he’s achieved as a result of you then really feel such as you’re quantifying the infraction. I did this with Verdugo a couple of years in the past, wasn’t nice.

Eric A Longenhagen: c) additionally I attempt to keep away from something that remotely resembles wrecking or significantly disrupting somebody’s life for clicks or clout, particularly once they’re such younger people who find themselves inevitably going to make errors. Generally qwhen the draft is concerned and a participant is falling for this or that cause it’s important to cowl the infraction then, as a result of it’s having a baseball-related affect, I’m not simply solely standing in judgement of no matter it was they did.

George: Actually appreciated your piece on Fall league guys. I’m concerned about whether or not Seaver King has proven something extra. The remainder of his draft class appears to have handed him by, even when he was a comparatively uncooked faculty bat.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s going to be an fascinating one. Scout right here already acknowledge the instruments and athleticism, he hit the Charro Lodge the opposite day. I’ve had guys suggesting this and that repair to his swing to get him going… I do know he had a tough 12 months however I don’t assume he needs to be dismissed so shortly.

Mark S.: Hello Eric, how far off have been both Elmer Rodriquez-Cruz or Jhostynxon Garcia out of your high 100? What good points do they should make subsequent 12 months to enter that territory? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Password’s chase is the lone factor there that I feel will make his manufacturing fluctuate fairly a bit. Elmer will most likely be an offseason addition. He’s a thin, frail-looking man however was pumping 97 late within the season, he has the instruments to get lefties out though he’s breaking ball-oriented and throws them a ton of curveballs.. he’s good and certain debuts in 2026…my form of pitching prospect

Alex B: Is Tucker Musgrove a man you possibly can see rising up prospect lists this subsequent 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little question, touched 100 for me this week. Secondaries are simply okay.

sodo mojo: Have you ever been in a position to see Farmelo within the AFL?  Clearly an enormous expertise however he has been derailed by accidents thus far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. Bodily as spectacular as any man out right here, let’s see how the swing performs fairly respectable pitching (for Fall League) and the way he seems to be on protection. He’s gonna Ok a bunch but when he’s getting to very large energy and taking part in CF, that’s okay.

Eric A Longenhagen: Schoolcraft, simply bodily overwhelming.

Visitor: Who do you assume competes for ROYs subsequent 12 months? guys who might debut/be good however not sufficient video games?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hesitate to reply contemplating no individual on the planet, not Chad Patrick’s mother and father nor Isaac Collins‘ lover(s), no one, would have put that group on the high of their record. I would find yourself getting my preseason Drake Baldwin decide proper, although.

Tom C: Any ideas on River Ryan going into ‘26? Appears like its a make or break season for him in a crowded rotation (albeit one which WILL provide him alternatives)

Eric A Longenhagen: Noticed him throwing a bullpen at Camelback a couple of weeks in the past and he appeared kinda heavy, actually.

David: Good Morning, no questions right this moment simply hope you’re doing effectively.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, you too. Principally I’m.

Cam shafts: ought to I have a look at Danny Espino as all or nothing in 2026. Gotta take the coaching wheels off now. Jogs my memory of Danny Salazar in expertise and storyline. Additionally, is my bro love for cam collier and cam camitti justified? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Espino breaks camp in Cleveland’s bullpen. Seems fairly good, shot to be a set-up man.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Cams: Collier is perhaps probably the most fascinating and essential eval in your complete AFL. I’ll save my ideas for once they’re extra full. His swing is bizarre however he hits, he seems to be good taking part in D at first base. Must see extra energy manufacturing from him in actual life if he’s going to be a superb massive leaguer, although.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cam Cam seems to be good, assume they mighta tweaked his supply already, lemme verify my notes as a result of I took just a little move at him after I did the top of 12 months 100 replace…

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: You may see the arm angle is decrease now than in HS and (it’s harder to see the change) however he seems to be extra cross bodied now, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m nonetheless digesting these modifications, he’s a superb prospect after all.

Colton: Is there an accurate strategy to assess prospects commerce values? I’ve a guess with a buddy that thinks Brendan Donovan goes to fetch a crew’s high 5 prospect in a commerce over the offseason. I’m on the facet that he won’t and he thinks it’d be a settle in the event that they transfer him for under that

Eric A Longenhagen: There may be at all times stuff occurring within the background that impacts prospect return. Usually that includes older, higher-paid gamers and groups paying down their wage to get a greater prospect return (or not). In Donovan’s case the fast and soiled calc can be: He’s been a 3 WAR participant fairly frequently for a number of 12 months. That’s one thing like $36 million in worth earlier than you regulate for his wage, which has been minimal throughout that span. Now he’s getting into arb, so his wage will probably be larger and there’s rather less “surplus worth” there, however he’s nonetheless actually good for no matter value, I feel you’re taking a look at $20+ million in surplus worth for the subsequent couple of years, that’s like a High 100 prospect and one other good piece or two for 3 years of that man?

Eric A Longenhagen: If we’re assuming the highest 100 man is a 2-ish WAR producer yearly

Erik Bedard: Hello Eric, would you ever take into account doing prospects protection movies for different positions that aren’t shortstop (outfield, second, third, first, catcher)? These shortstop vids have been so fascinating and am curious for extra as somebody who didn’t develop up taking part in baseball and don’t know what I’m on the lookout for

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll, most likely CF and C

Jonathan: If Cam Schlittler have been nonetheless prospect-eligible would you continue to slap a 50 on him or wouldn’t it be larger after seeing him succeed towards MLB hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’d be a 55 or 60

Dan’l: Mr. Goold reported the Playing cards have heard calls about catcher. What would you do in case you’re them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Transfer Herrera

Oaktown Blues: Is it regular for a man like Max Muncy with some massive league expertise to go to the AFL? Does this point out the FO’s confidence in him, a insecurity in him, or neither?

Eric A Longenhagen: Impartial. Yearly there are a pair guys in his state of affairs who come right here simply to get reps. He seems to be snug thus far, he ought to dominate this league.

J: The place are you in your analysis of Chase Burns after first full professional season?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s superior

Eric A Longenhagen: A basic, like listening to an outdated high 40 music on the radio for the primary time in perpetually

Visitor: Are there fatigue points for gamers collaborating within the AFL after a complete season?

Eric A Longenhagen: A lot of the guys despatched right here have been harm in the course of the 12 months and choosing up innings, so for now I’d say, “no”. Ask me in November, although.

Visitor: the philly folks appear to be actually bringing the hate proper now for rob thomson. what do you consider how the sequence was managed? clearly has an amazing document, tons of expertise even in participant dev

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re pissy as a result of final evening sucked, they’ll neglect about it shortly. The fellows on the crew appear to actually care about Topper and vice versa, they misplaced the sequence as a result of guys didn’t a lot carry out in key moments.

Eric A Longenhagen: I cooked for Mega and Emma Baccellieri and so they bought to look at me gnaw my fingernails all the way down to the cuticles after which really feel horrible for Kerkering, adopted by extra heat than is wholesome for a person to really feel about somebody he doesn’t know when Realmuto instantly consoled him.

War2D2: Kevin Alcantara had a tiny cup of espresso on the finish of the 12 months, however appeared like he wasn’t essentially overmatched (4/11, 4K). Barring a pillow deal state of affairs, it looks like a foregone conclusion the Cubs will minimize bait on Tucker and RF will probably be Alcantara’s to lose subsequent spring. What’s your forecast for him? An uneven however “tremendous” Shaw-esque rookie marketing campaign, or extra tough waters? His strike zone is so massive, and his swing is so lengthy, it looks like he’s going to wish plenty of runway to make it work.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel your’e proper and it makes extra sense for a crew within the earlier levels of their constructing part to present him that runway

Jim: Do you assume Jack Perkins can maintain up as a beginning pitcher, or is he higher fitted to the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel ‘pen however I’ve scout sources who disagree

Lord Thunder: Greater ceiling … Willits or Cholowsky? Most certainly to remain at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Willits has the higher hit device, Roch is a 7 defender

The 6ix: What are the probabilities that Y. Curet improves his management sufficient to be a viable MLB pitcher? The uncooked stuff appears to be there.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s however I believed he appeared fairly terrible when he returned from damage this 12 months. Zero really feel for location. Was a high 100 man for me getting into the season.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not a foul comp

Eric A Longenhagen: may run into 15-20 bombs at peak, Hedges like

Mark: I do know you dont love fantasy baseball questions however I’ve a conundrum, who do I would like in my dynasty league De Paula or Hope.

Eric A Longenhagen: De Paula

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys can ask fantasy questions, it’s tremendous. I get folks play and adore it, I began taking part in too (sure I gained the league)

sliderguy35: prepared to imagine the info on yohendrick pinango? or is the visible nonetheless holding again from a bump in rating

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, swing doesn’t actually permit him to drag the ball in any respect. Knowledge has been kinda nutty for a pair years now, although.

Goule: Sasaki somebody you’ll transfer again up the board after this postseason efficiency?

Eric A Longenhagen: He graduated. If he stays in reduction his entire life he’ll have to be Aroldis Chapman to justify having him as excessive as I did. Glad he seems to be wholesome and stronger.

Eric A Longenhagen: Linan seems to be extra like Nabil Crismatt to me, low velo, nice changeup, backend starter swingman sort. Dorchies is a pleasant long run challenge, love his supply, assume his fastball punches up, secondary efficiency was simply okay…

Eric A Longenhagen: Bragg I feel is a 40 athlete however he was throwing arduous and has an actual three-pitch combine earlier than he was shut down. he may very well be within the massive late subsequent 12 months. Much less starter-y than Dorchies in a vacuum however manner nearer to the bigs…

Eric A Longenhagen: Stanifer is a monster fastball man, slider performed like a plus pitch too, supply is just a little bizarre and he’s not an amazing strike-thrower, extra on the SP/RP line for me

Eric A Longenhagen: however threw over 100 frames this 12 months

sliderguy35: how apprehensive are you about murakami’s NPB contact charges if / when he comes over subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly apprehensive. Whiffing at a 50% clip towards secondary pitches. Want to try him in a broad pattern and revisit him on protection. Okamoto is best, I feel.

victoria: It is a prospect chat…. however what are your sport 5 predictions?

Eric A Longenhagen: DET Skub + bullpen will get them there, apprehensive Miz comes out wild however I’m actually undecided about that NL sport.

RAH: Replace on Braxton Bragg – he had TJ and can miss most if not all of 2026. He might return to sport motion, however I doubt he makes it to the bigs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Proper, he was a july TJ, thought perhaps he’d have room in August, September to be again?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, it was manner on the finish of July, yeah then mainly out

Visitor: Why hasn’t Cleveland been extra enthusiastic about Wuilfredo Antunez?  He hardly charges a point out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Medium bodily prowess, nutty launch, like 23 levels, no concept how that’ll play, that’s in Ryan Schimpf territory.

Razor Shines for all: Will we be getting a Rule 5/40 man preview???

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna do a roster crunch piece, sure

Eric A Longenhagen: Rule 5 preview, nah. Waste of time imo

Eric A Longenhagen: write them up after they get picked, in any other case you’re writing up like 20 guys for everybody one who truly will get chosen, not the most effective use of anybody’s time

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta cut up. Thanks a lot for coming once more this week. I’m going to prep for the day’s AFL stuff, see you on the market.