Jackson Chourio is a star. You may see it the second he steps to the plate. He seems like he’s all the time been in a batter’s field, like hitting comes as simply as respiration. He has simple energy and shockingly good contact abilities for somebody who swings so laborious. So, uh, why can’t he take a stroll?
High-quality, that’s hyperbole. It’s Might 8, 38 video games into the season, and he’s walked 3 times in 165 plate appearances. That works out to a 1.8% stroll fee, the third lowest amongst certified hitters. Jacob Wilson? He’s walked six occasions already. Michael Harris II? 4 walks in fewer video games. Title a man you assume can’t stroll, except platoon gamers Kerry Carpenter and Michael Massey, and you’ll make certain that Chourio is strolling meaningfully lower than they’re. Chourio didn’t stroll a ton in 2024 – his 6.8% stroll fee was within the thirty first percentile – however that is one thing totally different completely.
Naturally, once I began penning this piece earlier than Tuesday’s sport, Chourio had two walks in 161 plate appearances for the bottom stroll fee in baseball, however then he walked his second time up within the Brewers’ 9-1 loss to the Astros. (For the remainder of this text, I’ll be utilizing stats as of the beginning of play on Tuesday.) Anyway, the purpose nonetheless stands: Chourio isn’t strolling. What’s happening right here?
It begins, as so many issues in hitting do, with the primary pitch. Chourio has tapped into some newfound aggression on pitches down the center. Maybe he was searching for further energy. Maybe he discovered it baffling that pitchers attacked him early within the depend like he was just a few common hitter, not a thumping energy hitter with room to develop even stronger.
Chourio’s response has been emphatic. When pitchers assault the middle of the zone to begin at-bats — and in his case, they’re nearly completely at-bats as a result of, once more, no walks — he’s up there swinging. His 65% swing fee on middle-middle first pitches is second in baseball amongst batters who’ve seen 50 such pitches to begin at-bats. Final 12 months, solely Nick Castellanos swung extra continuously at first pitches over the guts of the plate. That title ought to clue you in to the truth that this quantity of aggression shouldn’t be essentially good. Certain, Chourio is getting some further hacks at hittable pitches, however solely on the margin. He’s placing 18% of first pitches into play this 12 months, however his .358 xwOBA on these is definitely under league common, and his wOBA is under league common too.
You may’t simply swing at extra pitches over the guts of the plate with out altering different habits. To get dialed up for these swings, he’s pondering aggressively. The worst factor you are able to do on the primary pitch of an at-bat is swing at a ball, and Chourio is doing {that a} ton; he’s chasing 32% of the primary pitches he sees, in comparison with 20% final 12 months. League common is round 16%. That’s placing him behind the eight ball immediately. In 161 plate appearances, he’s gotten to a 1-0 depend solely 43 occasions, a 26.7% fee.
Let’s simply name that ratio what it’s – terrible. Solely Yainer Diaz and Jake Burger are getting forward much less continuously. Diaz is meaningfully under substitute stage proper now due to anemic offense, and Burger acquired demoted to Triple-A on Friday to reset his sport. It’s actually laborious to stroll if you don’t begin out 1-0. Throughout the majors, hitters are strolling 5.5% of the time after falling behind 0-1 and 15.9% of the time after getting forward 1-0.
Chourio is on the fallacious facet of the damage-versus-patience breakeven. There’s nothing fallacious with swinging aggressively at first pitches that you could hit. Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Alex Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – loads of good hitters come as much as the plate able to assault first-pitch meatballs. However these guys are swinging at balls far much less continuously than Chourio does. Hernández, hardly a paragon of plate self-discipline, provided at 19% of first-pitch balls in 2024. That’s about as aggressive as I can think about a hitter getting with out ending up unbalanced, and as I discussed up above, Chourio is above 30% this 12 months.
If that have been the extent of Chourio’s stroll woes, although, I wouldn’t be writing an article about them. Certain, he’s not getting forward within the depend continuously sufficient, which is a tricky method to reside in opposition to fashionable pitching. However that’s simply the beginning of his issues. Even after getting forward 1-0, Chourio has solely walked a single time. The issue, in my eyes? He hasn’t give you a cohesive plan for easy methods to maximize his depend benefit.
Consider the strike zone and the world round it as separated into three quadrants: the guts, the “shadow zone,” which includes the fringes of the zone and the world simply off of it, and every thing else. The large good thing about getting forward within the depend is that you could ease off in that shadow zone and hunt for one thing extra hittable. Pitches down the center? At all times good to swing at. Pitches that don’t even threaten the zone? These are simple to take. However if you’re forward within the depend, why swing at pitches that aren’t the place you need them? They may be known as a ball, however even when they’re known as a strike, it’s not as if you’re more likely to do harm even should you hit them. Chourio is not any exception. When he places the ball in play over the guts of the plate, he’s batting .398 with a .762 slugging proportion. When he places the ball in play within the shadows, these fall to .302 and .465.
In 2024, Chourio appeared very conscious of this. When he was forward within the depend, he tried to maintain the bat on his shoulders until he noticed a pitch he wished. His 45% swing fee on pitches within the shadow zone was decrease than the league common of 51%. This 12 months, he’s swinging at these pitches 62% of the time. Need some context? Final 12 months, he was within the twenty second percentile for shadow zone aggression. This 12 months, he’s within the 87th.
It’s laborious however not unimaginable to make hitting work whereas being that aggressive. I say not unimaginable as a result of José Ramírez is extremely profitable regardless of a ravenous method when forward within the depend. However José Ramírez is a freak of nature, in probably the most complimentary potential method. Certain, he swings at numerous pitcher’s pitches, however that’s as a result of he desires to swing, interval. When pitchers enterprise over the guts of the plate whereas behind within the depend, he’s blindingly aggressive, swinging 85.5% of the time. Chourio checks in at a modest 65%, hardly extra continuously than he swings at balls on the sides.
That’s the crux of Chourio’s downside: No matter he’s pondering when he steps within the field, it’s main him to swing too continuously at pitches that he can’t do a lot with, and he’s not crushing the straightforward ones sufficient to make up for it. When somebody throws a fastball on the black in a 1-0 or 2-0 depend, hey, good for them. That’s a pleasant pitch; now they must do it a number of extra occasions. For those who swing at these, you’ll certainly swing at pitches simply off the plate, too, and swinging at a ball when forward within the depend is among the worst issues you are able to do as a hitter.
I hardly assume it’s an unsolvable downside. I even assume it comes from place. Chourio is swinging at fastballs extra continuously this 12 months, and a ton of his elevated swing frequency on marginal pitches comes as a result of he’s prepared to broaden the zone a bit in opposition to heaters. I don’t love this swing, however I don’t hate it both:
Nonetheless, steadiness is important, and Chourio hasn’t discovered it. Pitchers are getting rewarded for making good pitches in opposition to him – discover the sides of the zone, and he’ll swing. However once they miss over the guts of the plate, he’s not attacking typically sufficient to make them pay. Pitchers have taken benefit of this by aiming for the plate. You’d anticipate a man like Chourio, swing-happy and highly effective, to see only a few strikes. However as an alternative, pitchers are flooding the zone once they fall behind.
Consider it this manner: 331 batters have gotten forward within the depend 50 or extra occasions this 12 months. Out of that group, solely 18 have seen pitches within the strike zone at the next clip than Chourio when forward within the depend. He isn’t doing sufficient to make pitchers keep away from him, and they also’re flatly unwilling to let him get even additional forward within the depend. The one method to counter that zone-heavy method is with aggression of your individual, however to this point, Chourio hasn’t been in a position to dial it up accurately. For those who’re going to swing like he does at pitches on the nook, you higher deliver the ache when pitchers miss over the guts of the plate. However Chourio turns into Juan Soto or Lars Nootbaar, taking practically 40% of the middle-middle fastballs he sees when forward within the depend.
If that sounds bizarre given his general elevated aggression, I’m with you! How will you swing extra typically at fastballs, and but not so typically in opposition to fastballs down the center? All I can do is speculate, so speculate I shall. I believe that Chourio is searching for pitches relatively than areas. If he’s wanting fastball and will get one, he swings, no matter the place it’s. If he’s wanting slider and doesn’t see one, he’s taking – whether or not it’s down the center or within the grime. That’s how you find yourself swinging at pitches on the corners as typically as over the guts of the plate.
That is going to work out. Chourio is 21 and nonetheless adjusting to huge league pitching. He has many good concepts that haven’t fairly clicked but. He’s so aggressive early that he doesn’t get forward within the depend typically sufficient. However when he does get forward within the depend, that aggression fades away. Loads of highly effective, swing-happy hitters get their walks as a result of pitchers simply received’t danger throwing them a meatball. Chourio hasn’t been in a position to put that into observe but, and consequently he’s ending up in between far too typically.
Two totally different approaches would every work nicely for Chourio. He might follow final 12 months’s general affected person plan; he has the contact and energy abilities to attend pitchers out. He may very well be extra of a hack-and-slash masher if he’d want, with monomaniacal aggression within the zone and sufficient bat-to-ball abilities to keep away from an enormous strikeout fee. However his present plan, aggressive early after which caught in between later in at-bats, simply received’t work. That’s how you find yourself strolling solely 3 times within the first 20% of the season, and the way you find yourself with a league common wRC+ if you’re one of the gifted hitters in baseball.