Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaaay we go!

Visitor: Given his previous efficiency, and what you’ve seen from him to date this season, when do you anticipate Lindor’s gradual begin will finish?

Dan Szymborski: April 🙂

Houzer: Extra excited this 12 months for Jack Leiter or McKenzie Gore?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps Gore barely? The nats pitching holding up and a Gore breakout is their playoff path, and that intrigues me. Although I get extra of a profit with Leiter since he was on his breakouts checklist

Bubbles: Is there any analysis on what number of pitches to a hitter it takes for swing metrics like O-Zone Swing % to begin turning into sign over noise of small samples?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve executed some work and these things is kind of necessary in only a few dozen PA

Houzer: Tigers name the Pirates and supply Matt Manning for David Bednar. Honest deal?

Dan Szymborski: At this level, most likely, however I’m undecided that’s the Tigers want

John: Through the opening day chat you stated that Devers’ profession WAR projection is an identical even when he performs DH for the remainder of his profession.  Are you able to clarify that extra?  Even together with his poor protection he has at all times graded out a lot better than a DH – simply examine his ZiPS ROS depth chart projection to his regular ROS projection – there’s a full win of distinction.  Is his protection worse than I feel, the DH positional adjustment lower than I feel, or some mixture of each?

Dan Szymborski: Properly, for one, ZiPS tasks his protection to say no over time. Second, I exploit a 1B penalty for DH

Dreamin: The NL west is already a massacre

Alex A.: With out realizing exactly what the issue is with the Braves, would you say it’s time for our followers to crack one another’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: errr, I feel it’s, Kent

RTJ: Ideas on the contract extension run? Did Merrill get a good shake?

Dan Szymborski: Decently so. ZiPS had it a bit increased, however he’s a methods away from FA

Mickey: What pitcher Statcast metrics are at present integrated? Is it pitch stage knowledge like spin charges or utilizing anticipated outcomes like xWOBA?

When a brand new Statcast metric like swing velocity comes out, what’s your threshold for incorporating it into ZIPS?

Any evaluation you’ll be able to share of ZIPS’s accuracy pre-statcast knowledge versus as we speak?

Dan Szymborski: Plate self-discipline, high quality of contact, velocity, zips has its personal anticipated consequence

Dan Szymborski: I’ve a stuff mannequin, however I’m not but assured sufficient to maneuver it into the principle mannequin

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has incrementally improved. These things, after we speak about median projections, solely actually shades it just a little

Galen: How quickly will you incorporate new knowledge into the Zips projections for remainder of season.  Instance increased max EV , bat velocity, and so forth. for a hitter.  Or velocity improve / lower for pitching; pitch combine modifications, and so forth.

Dan Szymborski: After I work out how one can work it right into a simplified in-season mannequin

Visitor: We’ve had a “State of Fangraphs” publish as we speak so I feel it’s becoming to get a “State of Dan” replace. What are the 2 or three most necessary updates you need to share from the previous 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve misplaced 53 kilos!

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless have extra to lose. I’ve too sedentary a life-style and my again issues made that worse

Dan Szymborski: Although my blood stress/glucose had been at all times superb and my heartrate middling

eatbug: Garret Crochet is a prime __ starter in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: 5

Bubbles: Degree of pleasure for Tommy Two Luggage Edman small pattern measurement of rising as much as Tommy HR Machine Edman?

Dan Szymborski: it ruins a superb nickname

RTJ: extra shocking week: Braves gradual begin or padres scorching begin?

Dan Szymborski: Braves being THIS dangerous

Phil: Are you planning to write down up the Campbell extension? It seems to be actually team-friendly to me, but it surely’s laborious to evaluate these tremendous early ones. He has the texture of a star within the making however I do know it’s not like you’ll be able to financial institution on really feel.

Dan Szymborski: Jay has it, although I ran projections from him

Bob Loblaw: In Could 2024, an Indiana decide dominated that tacos and burritos are “Mexican-style sandwiches.”

Dan Szymborski: for the needs of authorized recognition and for the needs of use in speech are two very various things

Key Flaw: What sport might have the biggest impact on predictions? Not counting accidents, however how excessive does a sport must be to impact a staff’s or a participant’s predictions? An ideal sport? 5 strikeouts? 4 errors? 4 house runs?

Dan Szymborski: actually, any excessive efficiency, and one sport is absolutely small in any indication

Visitor: Miles Mikolas vs Sean Newcomb on Sunday Evening Baseball this week might be a recession indicator

Visitor: Who’s profitable the NL Central? (pls say my cubbies)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has hitched itself to the Cubs this 12 months

Nathan: Simply as anticipated, the Cardinals haven’t but trailed on the finish of the ninth inning in 2025. We’re positively getting the “Is that this staff…good?” headlines beginning. So if a superb 2025 goes to occur…which Cardinal’s overperformance (say ninetieth percentile consequence or one thing alongside these strains) can be most impactful on their 2025 consequence?

Dan Szymborski: Walker since ZiPS actually hates him

Lowetide: I do know you’re going to say too quickly to know, however is Jordan Walker actual?

Dan Szymborski: Nto satisfied but, however glad to see

Caleb Durbin: Will I be beginning 3b for the Brewers by Could 1st?

Dan Szymborski: No

Ross: Logged in right here particularly hoping to see “April” as the primary response.  Thanks on your service!

Visitor: Is it now secure to throw out all of our preconceived notions about each participant? I really feel like we’re overdue now.

Dan Szymborski: April!

Barry: Who’s one of the best participant getting traded on the deadline this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say Brandon Lwoe

Dan Szymborski: Lowe

appa yip yip: have the rumours of george springer’s demise been barely just a bit bit perhaps exaggerated?

Dan Szymborski: don’t make me faucet the calendar

Visitor: Which of the three 100 mil + extensions was closest to Zips predictions? Which extension would you (not Zips)  most wish to have as a staff?

Dan Szymborski: Crochet was actually shut

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even run Marte

Dan Szymborski: I feel I’d like Crochet one of the best

Dan Szymborski: particularly since I’m an Orioles fan

Allan: Braves playoff odds dropping practically 25% at FanGraphs after the 0-7 begin is fairly devestating

Dan Szymborski: 0-7 is a fairly large deal. Plenty of followers assume that there’s some preordained variety of streaks and slumps, however that ain’t so

Fred: Does ZIPs think about actual delivery date or simply “baseball age”?

Dan Szymborski: No; I haven’t discovered a lot of a profit

Bubbles: Concerning the swing metrics query, I’ve been doing a little work on minors statcast and looking for a cutoff of statcast pitch occasions to keep away from noise. I initially had 400, but it surely feels like a couple of dozen PA could also be extra like 150-200 pitches for a superb cutoff?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, although I at all times encourage individuals to try to take a look at issues themselves. A number of instances while you’re doing analysis, you discover one thing surprising

Dan Szymborski: Till I really began working with the info, I hadn’t actually thought how helpful first-strike share is as a number one indicator of future stroll price

Visitor: Tony Two Luggage Rendon hit 34 homers in his stroll 12 months and we noticed what occurred after that, perhaps these nicknames serve an actual goal

Dan Szymborski: Tony One Hip

Reuben: Hypothetical (motivated by an analogue from one other area): Your process is to challenge main league viability. You could have all minor league knowledge however no main league knowledge. The one different data you must prepare on is a pre-promotion scouting grade like Longenhagen’s FV. Does the truth that we’re now on the lookout for pretty high-outcome efficiency change the character of how you’d go about your projections?

Dan Szymborski: Not fairly certain how one can reply this query! A projection is at all times going to be data-based. If I’m on the lookout for high-end, I’d change how I have a look at the percentiles

Barry: Who do you assume tasks one of the best within the subsequent 3 years.. James Wooden or Dylan Crews?

Dan Szymborski: Wooden, however I actually like each

Sidd: Jason Foley has been stable for the MudHens 2 appearances. Punishment??

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume it’s punishment

Dan Szymborski: They’ve issues about his mechanics. I’d not have demoted him, however once more, I’m not a mechanics professional

Esteban: Ignoring the potential of future accidents, how lengthy do you wait earlier than pondering a staff is definitely good? and that i don’t imply wanting on the document, since early season data can fluctuate and never characterize true expertise stage. like- okay i’ve seen the rotation 4-5 instances now, we’ve got sufficient knowledge to see that some gamers are performing above expectations, and so forth

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume that’s a vivid line factor

Cromulent: It’s best to have had a chat on Monday so you can say: March!

Ketel Marte: Am I probably the most underrated celebrity in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I STILL assume it’s Ramirez

Dan Szymborski: I really assume Yordan Alvarez STILL isn’t appreciated as a lot as his bat calls for he be

appa yip yip: when ought to we begin believing batted ball metrics if there’s been a noticeable change in laborious hit price/barrel price/max ev?

Dan Szymborski: As ntoed, in a short time

Dan Szymborski: oh, i suppose that received’t hyperlink

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: prime is hitters, backside is pitchers

Visitor: April, however that’s all we’ve got for Matt Shaw as an MLB hitter. up all 12 months? .206/.308/.324 isn’t the worst it might be going, however 81.7 avg/101 max ev ain’t nice both

Dan Szymborski: That is nonetheless very early

Mike: do you share Pete Walker’s pleasure over Easton Lucas’ potential ?

Dan Szymborski: meh

boggspuckett: Any concern in regards to the begin to the 12 months from Crews?  SSS, however the strikeouts are regarding.

Dan Szymborski: 5 video games is simply too few

BC26: What percentile do the Dodgers must hit to win 117

Dan Szymborski: I had the 1% at 114 going into the season. It’s PROBABLY at 117 now

BC26: If the Yankees need to get in on the extension enjoyable, what would ZiPS supply Volpe or Chisholm?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’ve bought my Could extension piece to do! Don’t take away dudes! lol

Tiger Fan: I’m curious how a lot every week(ish) of video games can change projections. What participant/staff has modified their season projections probably the most from pre season?

Dan Szymborski: Properly, Braves

April: Odds the Braves break the White Sox document from final 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: heh. approaching zero

Dan Szymborski: solely as a result of nothing’s really zero

Mark Prior: Tanner Scott’s gotten off to a bizarre begin this 12 months and his velo is down a tick from the final 4 years — ought to I be anxious?

The God of April: Who can I get to panic subsequent?

Dan Szymborski: Mark Prior 🙂

Torpedo Bat: Will MLB make me an actual bat? Or will I be remembered as simply one other Pinocchio?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, actual bat?

Dan Szymborski: Torpedo bats have been kinda round for some time, however individuals solely misplaced their shit final week

Michael: I do know it’s April third, I do know I shouldn’t be pondering the season is over, however if you end up 0-7 with the one offseason addition lacking the subsequent 80 video games and one among your higher SP’s having exploratory shoulder surgical procedure it actually feels dangerous.  How a lot does ZIPs have these things impacting the Braves division possibilities and playoff possibilities?

Dan Szymborski: BOth of those are extmerely vital

Visitor: Vladdy Jr has 0 homers and Andres Gimenez has 3

Is it time to replace our priors and declare Gimenez to be a greater energy hitter

appa yip yip: are you able to be a celebrity should you’re underrated? doesn’t the title itself suggest that you’re very well-known and lauded on your accomplishments?

Dan Szymborski: You could be a underrated or overrated celebrity

Dan Szymborski: since there’s extra granularity

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume that most people really will get that Jose Ramirez is without doubt one of the best possible gamers of this era

Visitor: April, however barrel price is an efficient deal increased than in 12 months’s previous. Too early to make something of it?

Dan Szymborski: No more than being mildly attention-grabbing

dancing daniel mcdawg: What does Zips assume Brandon Belt might do that 12 months? at all times stunned me he was compelled into retirement

Dan Szymborski: Properly, it’s much less loopy than the occasional Barry Bonds request

Dan Szymborski: He was projected to a 115 wRC+ in ZiPS in a impartial park final 12 months

Dan Szymborski: That’s right down to 103 now

Christian: Cags can’t be any worse within the outfield than Renfroe/Melendez, proper? RIGHT!?!???

Dan Szymborski: Issues can ALWYAS worsen

Visitor: maybe a nonsense query, however does max ev stabilize the identical approach most stats do, or is it extra “should you max at 110 within the first 2 weeks, you would possibly hit one 111 down the street, however you’re already roughly within the peak space”?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually work with max EV

Visitor: what percentile had been 116 and 114 for these mariners and yankees groups, or have you ever by no means back-calculated it?

Dan Szymborski: By no means really executed it, since I didn’t run projections again then

Adam: The place does Luis Robert Jr find yourself come the commerce deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I might see him ending up in Atlanta in the event that they’re nonetheless someplace across the race

Visitor: Why would Merrill accept such a staff pleasant extension this early? I’m certain the safety of signing which means greater than we are able to think about, but it surely appears like he’s leaving a ton on the desk.

Dan Szymborski: Loads can occur in 4 years

Dan Szymborski: Groups have loads of leverage pre-arb and a few individuals are extra risk-averse than others

Dan Szymborski: If he will get a couple of nasty concussions with penalties, abruptly he could also be out life-changing cash

SC: Are you in any respect inclined to tweak ZiPS to account for an rising consensus that minor league contraction has considerably widened the hole between the excessive minors and the majors, or is that simply one thing that may right itself over time as extra participant seasons get added to the dataset?

Dan Szymborski: No, and I haven’t seen proof for a big change.

Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, I’m the man who in public MOST tracks AAA-MLB efficiency

Dan Szymborski: Ben L. simply wrote about this and I offered knowledge

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: That’s the park/league impartial ratio for hitters from AAA to majors, >200 PA each in AAA and majors, both 12 months 0 —> Yr 0  or 12 months 0—>Yr 1

Dan Szymborski: it’s SLIGHTLY down, however not something that ought to alter hwo you’re feeling about any participant

Dan Szymborski: I maintained then and nonetheless do now that loads of the notion is the big, sudden reversal of the MLB/minor offensive environments

Dan Szymborski: PCL ERA was 5.25 in 2024 and 5.69 in 2023.

Dan Szymborski: I even requested ZiPS to return and challenge all gamers for his or her preliminary stint within the majors for 2022-2024 with totally different ratios of AAA to MLB translation in comparison with what I really used. The optimum for projections was to knock 1% off RC/27

appa yip yip: the distinction between 100 million and 300 million with regards to the standard of life you’ll lead is zero. larger numbers are simply because gamers like them and need to make greater than one another and likewise why ought to the billionaires maintain that cash as a substitute? merrill made a option to set himself up endlessly.

Tim: Who will probably be increased rated Thai 12 months and going ahead? Austin Wells or Hunter Goodman? As is, they seem like a enjoyable platoon if on the identical staff

Dan Szymborski: Wells

Dan Szymborski: except I’m not understanding the Thai 12 months reference!

Dan Szymborski: I’m getting outdated, not solely do I perceive fewer and fewer popular culture issues, there are loads of issues I’ve by no means even heard of I’m certain

Visitor: Do you assume our brains generate consciousness or do you assume that we’re consciousness that’s experiencing personhood?

Dan Szymborski: It bums me out, however I think the previous. I can’t conclude something as a result of we nonetheless have an excessive amount of downside with consciousness.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to seek out out for myself in some unspecified time in the future within the subsequent 0 to 40 years

appa yip yip: should you hit a homerun you might be nonetheless taking two luggage you’re simply taking them twice. two luggage two instances.

Dan Szymborski: I needed Ian Desmond to take jersey quantity 22 in order that he can be Desmond Two-Two

Rufus IX: If the Dodgers go undefeated, however get swept of their first playoff sequence, would the season be thought-about successful?

Dan Szymborski: after a 162-0 season, most likely not

Visitor: I simply appeared on the AL Central standings. Shocked to see the Twins tied for first.

Logan: Clearly we don’t know the internal workings of the participant’s thoughts, however roughly what number of groups do you belief would have gotten an extension executed with Elly in some unspecified time in the future through the previous 24 months?

Dan Szymborski: 12 perhaps?

J: How anxious ought to we be about Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski: Not but. He was at all times much less developed and “full” than Yamamoto, so an adjustment interval being wanted was an actual factor

SC: Are you inclined to make any tweaks to ZiPS’ remedy of prospects to account for do something to account for issues just like the overwhelming consne

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like exterior issues being in ZiPS. I really feel it’s dishonest to incorporate any work that isn’t mine

Dan Szymborski: which is why I developed my very own zstats model of xstats

Dan Szymborski: Voros’ DIPS work was the impetus for me severely taking a look at projections, however all of the work was executed by me

Zebra1: How is Fangraphs treating the Rays and A’s for park-adjusted stats? Impartial park issue; final 12 months’s stadiums? Attempting to determine the psychological adjustment I ought to be making to these stats.

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually undecided. I assumed impartial

Jason: What’s your estimation of the diamondbacks? Do you’re feeling like they’ve a authentic likelihood to contend this season, or is LA simply too dominant?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they contend, however the NL West is hard

J: Folks get too caught up in whole {dollars} when taking a look at extensions and don’t think about that Merrill is making $809K this 12 months and now will get a $10M signing bonus and a ton of assured money. That’s life altering cash at an age when he would in any other case not have gotten it, and he beforehand had a draw back danger of a career-ending harm leaving him with a couple of million {dollars} in profession earnings.

appa yip yip: you may have misplaced your calendar. you now not know it’s april. what are you getting most enthusiastic about in baseball this previous week?

Dan Szymborski: I’m pondering this feels just like the 12 months Wheeler will get the Cy Younger cred that he ought to have previous couple of years

David: Is there a technique to see Prospect ZIPs updates all through the season or is that purely a preseason train

Dan Szymborski: purely preaseason

Brosius: Additionally, is the Dan image earlier than the load loss, or after? Don’t take this the improper approach, but when it’s the after, you positively wanted to lose that weight brother!  Congrats

Dan Szymborski: Center. I’m positively a fatass!

Dan Szymborski: oh no, this avatar? earlier than

Dan Szymborski: however my face hasn’t actually slimmed down, however I’m engaged on my spectacular beer stomach

Dan Szymborski: it helps that I’m hardly ever ingesting alcohol now; it simply too upsets my GERD nowadays

Brosius: Hey Dan, thanks for the chat! Are you planning on doing a futures sport ZIPS article once more this 12 months across the All-Star break?

Dan Szymborski: As with a prospects replace, it kinda will depend on what different pies I’ve my fingers in on the time

Phil: It’s not unreasonable although to consider contracts in comparative phrases, even when all of those guys are comfortably wealthy. For sophisticated causes a man who stories to me is about to get a promotion and lift that may surpass my wage, although he’ll nonetheless be reporting to me. I can’t say I wouldn’t choose that that weren’t the case, although I’m doing OK with my present wage.

Allan 2.0: Will any staff realistically threaten 117 wins? I perceive the plethora of expertise the Dodgers have, but when issues are wanting that good 100ish video games in and the roster is comparatively wholesome, you must assume load administration begins to turn out to be extra vital?

Dan Szymborski: 117 wins is difficult as a result of you must be superb AND actually lucky

Dan Szymborski: There comes a degree of diminishing marginal returns, the place you wrestle to get all the worth you need on the sector

Dan Szymborski: and at that time, additions are largely enhancing your draw back, not your upside

Stu: These AI meals photographs are very calorie dense.  It’s powerful on the market.  Completely happy for you, although.

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless gotta lose loads of weight!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve at all times been a fatass even after I performed sports activities, however for many years, I used to be a fatass within the 220-250 pound vary. However going over 300 was an excessive amount of fatass, and that’s what occurred after I began having vital again points in 2017

Dan Szymborski: Like earlier than, i used to be fats, however have to stroll 5 miles? No downside. However my again has made that actually laborious

Dan Szymborski: The silver lining is that my measurables haven’t gotten noticeably worse (as reference above), although that doesn’t mood my physician’s displeasure

Yeah Properly Hiura Towel: Don’t you hate pants?

Dan Szymborski: I do! I’ve at all times been the man who prefers shorts till it will get down into the 50s

Dan Szymborski: and since I make money working from home, I put on loads of health club shorts

Dan Szymborski: I solely have one lengthy health club pants, and I didn’t put on that till we bought beneath zero right here

Dan Szymborski: (inside, after all I had lengthy pants exterior)

Boog’s: Who’s almost certainly to complete the season within the Orioles rotation: Morton, Sugano, Gibson, or another 40+ 12 months outdated I haven’t considered?

Dan Szymborski: Gibson

Dan Szymborski: Not as a result of he’s one of the best, however he’s extraordinarily sturdy

Visitor: at 6′, 10 years in the past i went from 215lb to 185, however then in some unspecified time in the future I bought again as much as 225. Then misplaced two chunks of 30, one over 5 years (extra train and fewer sweets), the subsequent over about 5 mos. (concerted effort and calorie counting). been holding about 165 for 11 months now. you bought this!

Visitor: Dan this can be a noob query however what price does wOBA characterize? I perceive the maths that goes into it and I do know that it’s an correct indicator of how good a participant is at producing runs, but it surely’s a price stat. The denominator displays the variety of plate appearances (ABs?) {that a} participant will get. Is it the speed of “run” creation per plate look?

Dan Szymborski: consider it as a wRC price state scaled to seem like it’s OBP

Dan Szymborski: There’s no actual unit there

zips enjoyer: you don’t assume limiting your self to solely what you’ll be able to replicate  (perhaps much less successfully in locations) hurts the challenge, even when it maintains some type of “purity”.I suppose then is the objective of the challenge to be maximally yours or maximally correct

Dan Szymborski: We’re talkign slivers of accuracy. I simply don’t like profiting on the work of others

Dan Szymborski: and I wager that almost all issues that anybody can put in a statistical projection, I get there eventually

Dan Szymborski: As a result of doing this additionally solutions WHY questions, that I wouldn’t get

Dan Szymborski: I would like knowledge to CAPTURE WHY somebody is a 55 FV prospect in a scout’s eyes

Dan Szymborski: and each bit of recent knowledge we get will get us barely nearer to that objective

Dan Szymborski: If I simply threw Eno’s work into ZiPS, I imagine ZiPS can be *barely* extra correct, however not in a significant sense, as a result of we’re measuring breadcrumbs with rulers in enhancements now

Dan Szymborski: And when a mannequin requires the inputs of others to perform…what occurs while you lose that enter? Or it turns into much less correct in a approach you can’t detect?

Tiger Fan: I absolutely respect eager to know the why. Too many youngsters be dishonest by homeworks with out realizing why their stuff works 🫡

Dan Szymborski: There’s a cause I GENERALLY choose supervised to unsupervised studying in modeling. Know the WHY is extraordinarily necessary to me and a clear why that has slight accuracy losses from on opaque one is a tradeoff that I’ll take

Dan Szymborski: I feel this compulsion comes from the way in which I used to be raised. There’s an virtually pathological information über alles vein in my household, little question from my maternal grandfather’s affect. Studying stuff was at all times extra necessary rising up than being good, or being profitable, or the rest. I learn very early not as a result of anybody in my household pushed me, however as a result of at the same time as just a little child, I had this programmed compulsion to know EVERYTHING earlier than I die

Dan Szymborski: Doing projections wasn’t some plan for industrial success or perhaps a profession. I simply needed to KNOW issues. I’ve loads of bizarre veins of information in my head; I subscribe to 5 educational journals, I’ve learn each SCOTUS choice since 1973, I nonetheless examine 150 books a 12 months.

Dan Szymborski: So there’s most likely some screw free inside my mind!

Visitor: can any of those studying rules assist me with my basketball leap shot lol

War2d2: Catching as much as the start of the chat, re: the Q about finest participant to be traded: Do you assume Sandy Alcantara received’t be traded, or do you assume Brandon Lowe is/will probably be higher than Alcantara?

Dan Szymborski: really completely forgot Alcantara, who can be the proper reply lol

Logan: As a lawyer, I’ve to say that subjecting your self to full-text SCOTUS opinions is a personality purple flag, Dan…

Dan Szymborski: Plenty of my household has been attorneys. I’ve approach far an excessive amount of information that I’ll do completely nothing helpful with lol

Visitor: In the event you needed to make a dwelling playing utilizing solely ZiPS and baseball might you do it?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, however you must eke out loads of small good points over a LOT of bets becuase the home take is a fairly large deal

Dan Szymborski: If I needed to make a dwelling playing, I’d need to do it on the facet of the home!

md: is it simply me or are we having some actual catcher batting success early this season? it’s extra enjoyable when they’re contemporary and fewer so when their knees grind to mud they usually’re flailing round in september 🙁

J: Everybody understandably has been on Devers’ case on this small pattern, however your being down on Casas seems to be awfully prescient within the early going.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t bear in mind if I talked about it, however I discover Fenway a poor surroundings for Casas

Dan Szymborski: A lefty slugger has to both completely CRUSH pitches or be metahuman and dinking it round to the RF jut

Dan Szymborski: And taking part in in Fenway incentivizes contact hitting. It’s a extremely stable BABIP park

cat latos: What do my cat buddies to?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian is sitting on my workplace sofa half asleep. Mercutio and Constantine had been awkwardly sharing the heating pad upstairs after I got here again downstairs for chat

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia/Cassie is within the little cat cave that I picked up final evening, which has fairly completely been her base of operations.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I put it in a spot the place she might see me going to the kitchen, which was a superb tactical location for her

victoria: i had st louis toasted ravioli for the primary time – they had been okay

Dan Szymborski: That was my impression. They had been good, however I wouldn’t search them out or something

Profar’s supplier: Who’re the gamers that will profit from PEDs probably the most?

Dan Szymborski: Crappier ones

Visitor: Cat Cave – Our cats received’t use them, however put out a tiny field they usually’ll squeeze themselves in it doesn’t matter what.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s normally an issue.

Dan Szymborski: Different cats keep away from one thing as soon as Cassie claims it. She’s half the scale of the boys, however she’s the one who will exit of her technique to give them a smack

Dan Szymborski: As soon as, when one of many catlets was investigating her hedgehog toy, she cornered them each behind the bathroom within the upstairs nook toilet

crystal ball time: the all-seeing dan, who comes out with the nearer function in detroit, cincinnati, and pittsburgh. (and Miami when tinoco returns)

visitor: okay mr sir know all the pieces earlier than i die. who wins the nearer jobs in detroit, pittsburgh, and cincinnati

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I used to be requested my philosophy about projections!

Dan Szymborski: I do know it’s bizarre, however I nonetheless kinda really feel like Foley’s ultimately going to take that job again

Dan Szymborski: It’s very doable they don’t even find yourself wtih an actual CLOSER

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided Tinoco goes to be THE man this 12 months

Dan Szymborski: The marlisn aren’t tremendous aggressive with these items normally

Dan Szymborski: So I’m pondering Faucher would possibly find yourself getting probably the most for the complete season

Dan Szymborski: I feel Bednar does get the job again as a result of Pirates most likely need to commerce him

Dan Szymborski: if not him, Holderman

Dan Szymborski: I feel Ashcraft turns into the nearer someday this 12 months

Tim: Is Tinoco a stash? I’ve him on IL, which I don’t normally do for relievers

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually price a stash given uncertainty

visitor: thanks for answering, and considerate response to the projection philosophy stuff. you’re a superb sport

Visitor: is “Eugenio” having 4 1-letter syllables some type of document?

Dan Szymborski: Homer Simpson

Dan Szymborski: Within the episode with Linguo

Dan Szymborski: Ha-o-em-eh-er

Dan Szymborski: That was Run Lisa Run, proper?

Dan Szymborski: it’s previous the height period of Simpsons

Birdboy: With each passing extension signed by each staff however the Orioles I turn out to be additional embittered.  I’m fairly certain at this level I blame Elias greater than Rubenstein (although I’m certain he’s not innocent).  What do you assume?  Do you undergo from GOSTOM (Goddammit Orioles, Spend The Apparent Cash) too?

Dan Szymborski: If Rubenstein desires to spent the cash, I think Elias would have

victoria: Eugenio Suarez is a tremendous Pat Hughes pronunciation

Dan Szymborski: There are such a lot of names I’ve in my thoughts “I want I might have heard the Harry Caray model”

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Would you slightly be the know all of it you are actually saddled with all the load of not realizing all the pieces (fairly a paradox) or would you slightly reside the ignorance is bliss life?

Dan Szymborski: know all of it for certain

Dan Szymborski: Kat calls it “Dansplaining”

victoria: “Eugenio? Backwards that’s Oinegue!”

emanredsfan: Nonetheless mad Reds traded Suarez to “lower your expenses” then signal candelario for bsaically the identical cash

Dan Szymborski: “Up at bat for the Reds, Jamer Candolio” – Caray most likely

emanredsfan: Odds Matt McLain has the best 2B 2026 WAR projection by years finish?

Dan Szymborski: hmm

victoria: Harry would have Pete Crow-Armstrong

Visitor: “With each passing extension signed by each staff however the Orioles I turn out to be additional embittered.”
now think about Nats followers who’ve spent 15 years having all their finest younger gamers be Scott Boras purchasers…

Birdboy: Jack Leiter has walked 1 man in 10 innings.  What do I have a look at to try to work out if he really discovered management or only a fluke?

Dan Szymborski: most likely not THIS good, and first-strike share is meh

small e: The 2018 Purple Sox had been positively coasting/load managing by the top of the season and had their worst stretch within the second half of September. Completed 108-54 as a substitute of pushing for 110+. I feel the Dodgers would most likely do the identical if the division/pennant was locked up

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, there could be some inner feeling of “we’re 108-40, we’re not going to be some 112-win simps”

Dan Szymborski: ON that be aware, it’s time for me to hit the dusty ol’ path