Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/3/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, I’m beginning the chat a bit early immediately. I’ve a canine coaching session round 11:45 (ish), and I’ll squeeze out on a regular basis I can earlier than then, however plan on me bailing shortly after I get a 5 minute warning or so

Ben Clemens: Within the meantime, let’s reply some questions on baseball. And board video games, since I see one within the queue already

Some kinda Mook: Additionally, my spouse and I’ve performed by means of virtually all the Baker Avenue Irregulars pack in Sherlock Holmes: Consulting detective. Actually enjoyable! Thanks for the advice like a yr in the past!

Ben Clemens: Superb, I’m glad you prefer it. We simply performed a Sherlock just a few weeks in the past. We’ve been on an Azul and Cascadia kick lately, each of which stay nice

Some kinda Mook: Ben, who ya bought over the following 5 years: Yordan or Vlad?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, Yordan by a mile

Mike: Outdoors of the White Sox ending final, would any order within the AL Central standings shock you?

Ben Clemens: Agreed, that’s the one factor that feels particular

Ben Clemens: The remainder of the groups are actually evenly matched. Additionally, all of them have fairly well-defined weaknesses, so it’ll be straightforward to enhance on the deadline if that appeals to any of them

Ben Clemens: Ought to make for a really enjoyable race

Birdsong: Final yr round this time, Hayden Birdsong was the #17 prospect within the Giants group. Then he added the kick change and virtually instantly turned a high 50 total prospect. Would you say that he was being undervalued within the authentic report, or is the kick change simply that a lot of a sport changer? (I do know there’s been a ton of articles praising the pitch.) Additionally, what’s Birdsong’s future outlook like?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s in all probability many issues all collectively. Pitching prospects are notoriously powerful to get a deal with on, to begin with, as my analysis into prospect grades confirmed

Ben Clemens: I feel that makes basic sense as a result of single pitches generally — not all the time however generally — utterly change the outlook for a man

Ben Clemens: I feel that looking back, he was in all probability underrated, however I feel that occurs with lots of pitchers

Ben Clemens: The changeup is sweet, and I imply, he’s all the time had many plus pitches. The larger concern has been command, and effectively, he walked 14% of main leaguers he confronted

Ben Clemens: I’d mainly say he’s overrated now, however in a ‘you possibly can by no means inform if pitchers will develop command’ method

Alby: “Yordan by a mile” even with the higher harm threat? I fear a few Tony Olive/Rico Carty state of affairs with these knees.

Ben Clemens: Folks have frightened about that each day since Yordan debuted

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying there’s no threat

Ben Clemens: From 2021-2024, so together with Vlad’s two spike years, Yordan has racked up 2290 PA, 165 wrC+. Vlad has 2783 PA, 145 wRC+

Ben Clemens: Yordan’s been value comfortably extra whereas taking part in much less time, and we’re selecting the pattern to flatter Vlad there

Corbin Barrels: Bummed about Carroll getting pulled early, however he’s been hitting some absolute moonshots throughout the Cactus League; is it “simply Spring”, or how a lot ought to I purchase into the continuation of final half-season’s energy surge?

Ben Clemens: I feel it depends upon what you imply by surge

Ben Clemens: One factor I be ok with, regardless of what each Carroll and the crew have been saying, is that one thing slowed him down and made him produce meaningfully much less energy late in ’23 and early in ’24

Ben Clemens: Damage? fatigue? On condition that crew and participant aren’t giving something away, I can’t actually speculate. However I feel that Carroll’s uncooked energy is actual, and I purchase early ’23/late ’24 greater than the hole within the center the place he bought very slap-hitter-y

wheelhouse: is there gonna be an odd man out in KC’s infield? perhaps i’m flawed but it surely looks as if a very odd use of assets to commerce singer for india after which shuffle india to date down the defensive spectrum that he’s in LF/DH territory the place his bat isn’t distinctive. massey or garcia on the commerce block?

Ben Clemens: I imply…. have you ever seen the opposite gamers KC is contemplating utilizing at LF/DH?

Ben Clemens: Royals LF’s had a 75 wRC+ final yr

Ben Clemens: DH’s have been at 77, and that’s together with 200 PA of Salvy and Vinnie P taking part in DH

Ben Clemens: His bat is just not distinctive in comparison with all DH’s and LF’s. However in comparison with Kansas Metropolis’s different choices? It’s an enormous enchancment

diadem: How involved are you about Steer’s harm?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I wish to see some outcomes earlier than I modify my analysis

Ben Clemens: I didn’t suppose Steer regarded bothered by harm in ’24

Ben Clemens: However I hardly watched each sport

Ben Clemens: shoulder accidents are all the time scary. however till I see some proof that it’s bothering him, I’m keen to present it the good thing about the doubt

Ben Clemens: Now that we have now swing velocity knowledge from the second half of 2023, I can say issues like “Steer’s swing velocity, fee of quick swings, and barrel fee didn’t budge in 2024, so harm in all probability didn’t sluggish his bat”

Ben Clemens: Kinda cool to have the ability to try this

comish4lif: Is there wherever right here at FG that initiatives taking part in time by share? For instance, for the Rockies, what’s the % breakdown for somebody like Hunter Goodman at C/1B/OF/DH?

Ben Clemens: It’s there, in our depth charts, however you’d have to tug the information out your self ot see the break up that method

Ben Clemens: You’ll be able to see the taking part in time at every place after which do the mathematics your self

Jim: Over/below .500 document for the A’s in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I’ll take the below. Vegas has them round 72, so

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, I had the over final yr, and that was a cakewalk

Ben Clemens: it was like… 58? one thing wild

Ben Clemens: I do just like the A’s fairly a bit relative to that line, nonetheless, as does our mannequin

Ben Clemens: However I’d have it within the 75-80 vary, mainly

Eli: Given the worth of marginal wins to the Yankees, why are they not getting an actual third baseman?

Ben Clemens: I’m undecided, to be trustworthy. I feel that their dedication to a strict funds is a bit stronger than I anticipated, mainly

Ben Clemens: However I agree, it does really feel a bit bizarre to have a crew that appears one hitter brief

RP: Campbell or Holliday?

Ben Clemens: I’m on Campbell. I can’t shake the “I don’t see how this can work” vibes with Holliday

Ben Clemens: I’m flawed on a regular basis on issues like this, clearly. The consensus of evaluators and fashions tends to be fairly good, a lot better than my instinct

Ben Clemens: However look, I’ve been decrease than consensus on Holliday for fairly some time, and taking flak for it proper up till folks requested me how I might have guessed it

Ben Clemens: so I’ll simply say, eh, one thing about his sport feels off to me, despite the fact that I can’t put my finger on it. Gimme Campbell, whose sport is extra of a thriller to me

Insert Witty Title Right here: I’ve been coming to your chats since nevertheless lengthy you’ve been right here however I’ve by no means truly seen what you seem like. I think about you trying like a typical tech bro.  How far off am I?

Ben Clemens: I imply, you’re not utterly flawed, though I put on a FanGraphs hoodie as an alternative of some startup you’ve by no means heard of

Ben Clemens: Beard, grey hair I don’t hassle to dye, and so on. SF does have a method

Ralph: Do you sense a Volpe breakout coming? The bat velocity features look actual

Ben Clemens: Yeah however equally, I’m all the time seeing a Volpe breakout

Ben Clemens: I’ve predicted 3 of the final 0 Volpe breakouts

Ben Clemens: I feel that his model of protection plus bat management tends to play, and that the probabilities of an enormous Jose Ramirez model energy spike are typically underestimated for guys like him, so I’m a purchaser

Ben Clemens: however like…. as a rule, gamers don’t turn into Jose Ramirez

Holliday: Is having Holliday on my fantasy roster in 2025 a yr or two too quickly? (In distinction, ARod outplayed Holliday within the MLB at a youthful age.)

Ben Clemens: For all my pessimism on Holliday, I’m not saying he can’t work

Ben Clemens: all these views are simply probabilistic

Ben Clemens: I’m extra of a fantasy soccer participant than baseball participant b/c it simply feels too near my precise day job, however in fantasy sports activities generally, I feel that having quantity of youth and upside in your roster typically pays off

Ben Clemens: so like, even when the expectation is low, the tails look good. I’m not saying break the financial institution, however typically talking, betting on hype works out higher than it has any enterprise doing

RH: Does the MLB have the center to play a preseason sequence within the Taipei Dome? The WBC qualies have been superb, particularly in comparison with the tasteless Spring Coaching really feel of the Tucson bracket

Ben Clemens: No method is my guess

Ben Clemens: I don’t have any inside information on that, however Taiwan is just not a world sports activities vacation spot, and uh, no factors for guessing why

Insert Witty Title Right here: revisiting a commerce from 2019 – Curtis Mead for Christopher Sanchez.  How do you’re feeling about that 6 years later now that we see them within the bigs?

Ben Clemens: Gotta love when trades work out for everybody is my view

Ben Clemens: I feel each groups are in all probability fairly pleased with what went down

Drey Jameson: Drey is trying fairly good to date, getting up over 100 mph together with his 4S. He’s even displaying far more really feel for his Slider than you’d count on from anyone getting back from TJ; do you suppose the DBacks attempt to run him out as a MIRP, or is he strictly SIRP for now?

Ben Clemens: I feel they’ll go SIRP, perhaps with some longer and fewer frequent outings within the second half

Ben Clemens: Given their enviable rotation depth, I feel they’ll take the lengthy view, and I concur with that plan

Kevin: Folks appear to be very enthusiastic about Jordan Westburg, however I see some plate self-discipline points. What are your ideas on him?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I’m very in. I additionally don’t suppose it’s plate self-discipline, precisely. He looks as if he is aware of what he’s doing on the plate and is simply aggressive. He has some swing-and-miss, although

Ben Clemens: I feel that can in all probability all the time be in his sport. His swing could be very aggressive

Ben Clemens: However I feel that his model of aggression is one that usually performs effectively

Bosoxforlife: Buehler regarded good within the post-season final yr and yesterday he was spectacular. Do you suppose he might be the pitcher he was and if he’s do the Crimson Sox win the AL East?

Ben Clemens: I assumed Buehler was a terrific threat by the Sox

Ben Clemens: can he be the pitcher he was? for certain. And I feel that it’s extra doubtless than the contract he signed would indicate

Ben Clemens: One of many higher signings of the offseason imo, significantly within the ‘low-cost however good upside’ bracket

Ben Clemens: like, the perfect signing, for me, was Soto. it’s good to lock up a possible corridor of famer for a decade. However that’s not likely what we’re speaking about right here

Henry Dodger: Quintana simply signing with the Brewers jogs my memory that Blackburn and Canning are doubtless beginning the season within the NYM rotation. Even with Manaea doubtless again early and Sproat seemingly near the bigs, this isn’t optimum, is it?

Ben Clemens: I imply, it’s not nice. I feel that the crew is ready as much as deal with it in the event that they don’t have every other accidents. But when I have been them, I’d be attempting to seize yet another pitcher as a stopgap

Jim: I’ve learn that Jacob Wilson added muscle this low season. However I by no means know what’s actuality or simply “finest form of his life” rubbish. Is there any signal he’s developed extra energy/skill to drive the ball?

Ben Clemens: Probably not a lot option to see to date. He has 14 tracked batted balls in spring coaching

Ben Clemens: additionally, spring coaching is all the time bizarre

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s definitely one thing I’ll be keeping track of. He’s an intriguing participant

Ben Clemens: The A’s have traditionally been very into these better-game-than-raw-power guys

Ben Clemens: Esteury Ruiz was the apple of their eye after he had his wild slug-without-pop season within the minors

Ben Clemens: That offers me pause with Wilson, however I actually WANT to consider he can have an effect. My fashions all love him

Visitor: ideas on ivan herrera? his 127 wRC+ for a 24 y/o catcher (with statcast that backs it up) was spectacular

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel that the Playing cards’ basic disfunction across the catcher place obscured what season he had. I do know he wants some work behind the plate however I feel that they’ll give that to him this yr, significantly with Contreras shifting. The Playing cards have had lots of ‘subsequent nice catching prospect’s through the years… perhaps Herrera is the one to hit

Ben Clemens: no offense, however Pedro Pages positively isn’t it, regardless of how a lot the crew likes his protection

Jordan Lawlar: To the “finest form” cliches, Lawlar confirmed as much as camp noticeably bulked up; is that essentially splendid, contemplating he’s already a 60 uncooked/70 velocity sort of man with out the added mass?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a robust view right here, as a result of I’m not a kinesiologist or something. I feel {that a} good transfer is to not purchase these tales an excessive amount of and concentrate on how the gamers carry out as soon as video games begin

Ben Clemens: finest form of their life is simply so usually uncorrelated to efficiency

Bosoxforlife: As I watch a really massive, in each method, a part of the AL East puzzle is making his first look since 2023. As Felix Bautista throws his first pitch, then blows Trayce Thompson away, his presence makes the Orioles pitching look so much higher.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, big information for the O’s. Their bullpen state of affairs was not nice final yr, even with them spending cash to herald Kimbrel

Ben Clemens: I’m trying ahead to listening to Omar’s whistle in a lot of video games this yr

Henry Dodger: Which crew is more likely to beat their preseason wins projection by the most important quantity? I’m guessing the Crimson Sox. Who would you select?

Ben Clemens: Oh, this can be a enjoyable one. I feel I’ll take the Guardians, truly, as a result of our mannequin has them at 78 and that appears stunning to me. However relative to market strains? Possibly the Giants. Beneath .500 implied, and that offers them a good quantity of upside

Alby: “No offense, however Pedro Pages positively isn’t it.” I see what you probably did there.

Ben Clemens: Man, I didn’t even imply it

Visitor: “Playing cards’ basic disfunction across the catcher place” stays a little bit of a humorous factor to me. Trigger I agree with you re the notion of the Cardinals catchers and their defensive points (which appears to evoke much more handwringing contained in the org than outdoors of it)

However Cardinals catchers have been the third finest unit in MLB final yr by fWAR (although nonetheless within the backside half by whole DEF)

Ben Clemens: let me put it this fashion — the gamers is likely to be good, however the crew conduct round them isn’t

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t have a lot to do with Contreras and Herrera. Definitely nothing to do with Pages, who’s a wonderfully acceptable backup

Ben Clemens: It has to do with the crew continually speaking like they hate their catchers, after which doing bizarre issues like giving every of Pages, Herrera, and Contreras equal taking part in time despite the fact that their WAR broke down 0.5/1.9/2.5 on the catcher place

Scouting: To what extent do the instruments have an effect on one another? For instance, let’s say there are two gamers who you realize for a reality are an identical hitters, besides one has 80 velocity and the opposite has 20. When you regarded on the floor degree, the sooner participant could have higher stats, since he’ll get extra infield hits and additional bases. However would you give them the identical grades for his or her hitting?

Ben Clemens: I can solely reply for me, however for me, instruments have an effect on one another

Ben Clemens: like, sport energy and hit software are so correlated

Geraldo Perdomo: That is in all probability an odd query, however how do bunts work together with Common Exit velocity? Does a participant that often bunts look worse by avg EV and LA? Gamers like Perdomo and McCarthy have all the time had me questioning…

Ben Clemens: I can’t converse for everybody, however each I and the baseball savant default exclude bunts

Ben Clemens: There’s a bit flag for it within the search

Ben Clemens: Mathematically talking: with out bunts, Perdomo was at 87 mph EV and McCarthy at 84.5 in 2024. Add within the bunts, they usually drop to 84.2 and 81.8

jimmy: Is SF making a mistake with their rotation? You’ve gotten Webb after which 4/5 guys that you don’t have any thought what you’re getting from them.

Ben Clemens: I’m truly sort of into it. The minor league choices as replacements are fairly good. Birdsong, Beck from the bullpen, Roupp, I feel Mason Black is kinda enjoyable, varied Carsons

Jim: What does Zack Gelof must do to bounce again on the plate this yr?

Ben Clemens: Make a bit extra contact. He had the bottom contact fee amongst certified gamers final yr. Like…. worse than Oneil Cruz, Adolis Garcia in his worst yr, Elly, Ezequiel Tovar

Ben Clemens: He’s by no means going to be an excellent excessive contact fee man — however he must be unhealthy, not terrible

ppenayr: why should the pirates frequently disappoint me, one legit bat in that the center of that lineup they usually might compete.

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t get it

Ben Clemens: It’s so discouraging to see them win the lottery with Skenes, after which simply kinda ignore it

Alex Anthopoulos: Am I formally regretting the Murphy commerce, now that he’s going to overlook 4 to six weeks?

Ben Clemens: if 4-6 weeks is gonna change that, you in all probability have your priorities a bit flawed

Ben Clemens: I imply, if the Braves might eitehr try this commerce once more or not, they wouldn’t. However remorse it? I don’t suppose so. I feel it was a sensible swap, and I feel that even in a bad-ish case (Contreras higher than anticipated, Murphy worse than anticipated) they nonetheless bought lots of worth out of it

Jb: What are your ideas on Eduard Julien this yr? The Ty France signing was odd

Ben Clemens: Julien is a man I’m simply going to wager on perpetually. I actually purchase the skillset. I agree that France cuts down on his PT — however they are often platoon companions, and actually Julien’s going to offer you much more juice if he can pretend second than if he performs first. I feel that he’ll get loads of time to given the overall brittle nature of Minnesota’s finest gamers

Vader: Hello Ben!  What one or two metrics are your private favorites for shortly evaluating hitters and pitchers?

Ben Clemens: Oh hm, enjoyable query

Ben Clemens: I feel that barrel fee is only a nice one-off for understanding hitters. You need to take a look at their different stats too, but it surely supplies actually helpful context. “Does the ball explode off the bat” is one thing all of us use once we watch folks in actual life. I feel that one statistic to clarify that’s about pretty much as good because it will get for a fast check of hitters

Ben Clemens: re: pitchers, it’s kinda tacky however swinging strike fee

Ben Clemens: a lot stuff that pitchers do is difficult to tease out. Do their pitches work off of one another? Do they tip cdertain ones? Are they tiring out early? Do they want extra choices for after they don’t have the platoon benefit? You need to watch guys for a very long time to know the solutions to these questions

Ben Clemens: “Can batters hit the ball?” is way simpler to measure and possibly extra vital for efficiency, although

Ben Clemens: so barrel fee and swinging strike fee, if I needed to choose just one stat for every. However the nice half about baseball is you can choose a ton of stats, if you wish to

Jim: Why is Shea Langeliers so unhealthy at framing and blocking pitches? He had a fame as a defensive catching prospectCan he enhance?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have asnwer for you right here. Hey, he’s thrower

Ben Clemens: Actually, he’s not a disastrous receiver or something

Ben Clemens: Usually talking, although,catcher defnsive fame has a ton to do with throwing, and he’s nice at it

Tom: Do you employ Ok-BB% or CSW% to complement whiff fee for pitchers, or do these have too many different variables at play (for example, chase/BB charges in low-mid minors are inherently a lot worse)?

Ben Clemens: I imply, certain. I’m sort of skeptical of CSW simply because I haven’t had a ton of luck getting it to work with the best way I take into consideration pitchers. I’d desire simply strikeout fee at that time

Ben Clemens: as a result of I really feel like known as strikes are so variable of their distribution amongst counts primarily based on who the pitcher is that CSW finally ends up fairly noisy

Ben Clemens: however Ok-BB is clearly a greater statistic in the long term than swinging strike fee, as a result of it captures extra of what makes a pitcher good

Ben Clemens: not strolling folks is sweet, and that doesn’t present up immediately in swinging strike fee (it does a bit b/c a stroll requires 4 pitches somebody didn’t swing at, however that’s oblique)

Ben Clemens: simply, it’s noisier, and I’d quite take a look at swinging strike fee over a small pattern to know if I needs to be listening to a man

Henry Dodger: Is Gerrit Cole nonetheless elite?

Ben Clemens: Our projections suppose he’s not, although – they’ve him because the twenty sixth finest pitcher

Ben Clemens: I’d have him within the 10-15 vary, which to me continues to be elite

Tim: I’ve been. Doing my studying on Yoniel Curet. Don’t see an excessive amount of ink about him. Does he have a shot on the Rays’ rotation this yr, and in that case, how excessive on him can we be?

Ben Clemens: He’s in our preseason high 100 and bought an enormous writeup there:

Ben Clemens: I’d say he positively has a shot – that writeup notes we predict a mid-2025 debut

Ben Clemens: how excessive on him can we be if he cracks the rotation? Nicely, contingent on him cracking rotation, he’s in all probability higher than our projections. And provided that he has big stuff and extra of a stroll concern, I feel {that a} world the place he’s within the rotation as a serious league starter implies he’s nice. His stuff would already play within the bigs, imo

Ben Clemens: Okay, canine coach is right here, in order promised, I’m making a fast exit, thanks for all of the questions and discuss to everybody once more quickly. Baseball is coming!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What was the very last thing you listened to that made you go, “Hmm, I must test extra of this out?”

Ben Clemens: Ooh final second one. Chappell Roan is nice