Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/31/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello hi there from Tempe, the place the air is crammed with the endless drone of leaf blowers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna begin chat off on a considerably confrontational be aware.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are (extra this week than ordinary) numerous questions in my queue asking me to touch upon different peoples’ work or opinions. Listed below are some examples:

Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The man’s a 70 hitter with 80 velocity—and he’s not on the highest 100 wherever. What am I lacking about him?

Johnny: who’re some prospects you’re increased and decrease on consensus within the bluejays system

Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are fairly different…is his ceiling solely sp3 or do you’re feeling extra .thanks

Bob: Your former colleague at ESPN famous that many groups and swing analysts don’t consider that Kristian Campbell’s swing will work in MLB and he isn’t a high 50 prospect. This has riled up some Sox followers! Have you ever heard a few of that as properly? Do you agree?

Eric: I do know you haven’t revealed the Braves record, however amongst prospect writers, it seems to be like Luis Guanipa is a polarizing prospect as Kiley positioned him at 140 total(BA, MLB not practically as excessive). Ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Please cease this.

Eric A Longenhagen: You realize why I would like you to cease it, proper? I do know it’s the language of the web to border every little thing this manner, however it places me in an terrible spot.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are many apparent causes. I wasn’t round when whichever man wrote up Guanipa or Simpson, idk why you suppose I used to be or would have an opinion about it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, now let’s get to some precise questions.

Grant: Ideas on this upcoming draft, higher or worse than 2024

Eric A Longenhagen: Higher, the faculty arms and HS place participant teams are a lot deeper.

Jacob Milham: Have the prospects traded away this low season been lackluster? Quite a lot of star energy within the Crochet commerce and the Marlins acquired some upside prospects, however not one of the prospects moved appear to be higher for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: There positively appears to be a suppressed market proper now, primarily based on what affords for Robert and Stop appear to be.

Eric A Longenhagen: I might have guessed at the beginning of the offseason that the commerce marketplace for hitters would have been stronger as a result of there weren’t a ton of them accessible in free company.

Mariners: Gioven that my workforce, the Mariners, have botched their off season, who ought to I be placing extra religion in as a future All Star to switch the likes of Ryan Bliss, Jorge Polance, and Dylan Moore:

Cole Younger or Colt Emerson?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t essentially agree they “botched” it, although I might have relatively had Josh Rojas at his projected arb quantity than Polanco at 7 mil…

Eric A Longenhagen: Emerson has greater offensive upside, Younger (assuming he can really get wholesome) is extra polished and the higher defender.

Bencle Mens: Tremendous bowl associated query: Which Chiefs or Eagles participant may have made it in MLB? AJ Brown? Mahomes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brown was an actual draft prospect, he’d have gotten $2 million or extra. Mahomes IDK, his palms are unimaginable, you’ll be able to see the hip/shoulder separation maybe moreso than every other quarterback. I don’t suppose I’d wager in opposition to that man doing something.

mason morris: Right here for Dback prospect info, is there a man we must be watching this spring that would make the workforce

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m actually curious how Drey Jameson seems to be and what sort of function he’s ticketed for with so many different starters round.

doughboy: The Detroit Tigers have a logjam of fringy prospects vying for the back-end of their bullpen. Who do you undertaking to be one of the best long run choice for them: Montero, Madden, Gipson-Lengthy, Manning, Hurter? Anybody else not listed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I nonetheless suppose Madden may begin for an org with much less depth. Gipson-Lengthy had that influence lengthy man look earlier than he blew out. Hurter’s a reasonably normal center inning lefty.

Pirates Hurdles: Given the preponderance of fellows hanging out north of 25-30% in low minors has anybody achieved a current examine to see if success tales emerge or is that this a demise nail for toolsy no hit guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: You have got the Siri/Sano/Dalbec sorts the place they’ve sufficient else occurring to be large leaguers however not nice ones.

Eric A Longenhagen: The way you worth the Dalbec/Siri/Michael Taylor sorts is clearly extra consistent with much less toolsy, however extra steady hitters.

Bob: in the event you’re operating the Pirates who’s on 2B – Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzalez or What?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gonzales appeared a good bit higher final 12 months when he was wholesome, so I’d function with that. I feel Yorke is a weird reverse splits man who’ll be a right-on-right platoon bat. That man can’t hit lefties, it’s freaking bizarre.

Eric A Longenhagen: Critically, go lookup his splits.

Punk in drublic: Any likelihood it is possible for you to to finish all groups prospect lists by the center of march?  They’re a really worthwhile instrument for my dynasty league draft however there are normally solely about half accomplished by then.

Eric A Longenhagen: For those who recognize their depth and the standard of the evaluation and writing, then I’m sorry however no.

Refugee: Do you’ve a white whale prospect you want put all of it collectively however by no means did?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yadier Alvarez

Lord Thunder: Is the arrow up or down — or sideways — for Tommy Troy?Principally horrible common season, however higher in direction of the tip with a good AFL.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve a utility grade on him now.

Brian Cashman: The Orioles’ stint as the highest farm system in baseball appears to be official over. Do you consider in Elias & co’s potential to maintain a good-to-great system with out consecutive years of High 5 picks (and one legendary 2nd rd choose in Gunnar)? Are there indicators that their worldwide system is creating and/or they’re pretty much as good as turning late spherical gems into Guys because the Dodgers are? Aka ought to I be apprehensive in regards to the O’s past the following 4ish years of their core?

Eric A Longenhagen: Orioles worldwide stuff has been mixed-to-positive, it may well take years earlier than a brand new regime’s choices in that house may even be made as a result of usually the earlier one has made commitments that you simply type to must hold…

Eric A Longenhagen: Their draft technique has been fascinating as a result of it’s been all over when it comes to participant sort. They’ve been pleased to take toolsy strikeout machines like Fabian and Honeycutt, but additionally have been on the Griff O’Ferralls of the world who don’t Okay. It simply seems to be like they’re concentrating on any sort of high-end expertise and hoping to develop the remainder.

Mikey: I say chex is healthier, however Tony says Frosted Flakes is healthier, what’s your opinion and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the way in which Frosted Flakes lower up the within of my mouth.

TooDamnTall: Is it troublesome to gauge pitch recognition within the decrease leagues? I’m pondering some hitters get bored ready for low high quality pitchers to hit the strike zone, and simply swing at something shut figuring out they’ll do injury in opposition to the low high quality stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s, the shortage of command at decrease ranges means there are simply approach fewer strikes.

Eric A Longenhagen: And also you’re proper, you will get guys who know they’ll simply stand there and stroll, and also you get guys who’re antsy and swing at stuff they know they shouldnt

Yuniesky Betancourt: Who’s the most important absolute tank within the minors and why is it Arturo Disla?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel you nailed it and now it is best to Google “Desmond Watson”

James: Who do you suppose would finest spherical out the A’s rotation after Severino, Springs, and Sears amongst Ginn, Bido, Basso, Estes, Spence, Harris, and Hoglund?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bido and Ginn

Arnie B: Do you count on Brailer Guerrero to suit into the High 100? I do know you guys had a 50 FV on him in an replace

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, finest combo of current physicality and hitting potential throughout my FL journey final spring (non-Walker Jenkins version)

Wade Miley: Any explicit ideas on the Nats signing Shinnosuke Ogasawara? Do you suppose he sticks of their rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Command-oriented sixth starter sort. On Washington that  most likely means he holds down a backend spot and eats a ton of innings. I’ve been mild on the command-driven NPB guys previously, although.

The Llama Man: Has Joendry Vargas gone backwards within the final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: There was a bizarre interval the place he merely wasn’t taking part in for no matter cause. I don’t suppose he regressed a lot as the brand new degree overwhelmed him. His levers are so lengthy, he was at all times a dangerous man.

Filth: I’m guessing Braxton Roxby wouldn’t have cracked your Giants record?

Eric A Longenhagen: I up to date it, he’s on there. On The Board, anyway. Meg has to re-load the article itself, fairly positive she’ll get to that this weekend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hurtado as a result of polished offense was alleged to be a part of his recreation. Radney we now know had a lingering again situation. Ricardo I used to be apprehensive from the bounce he wouldn’t hit.

Okra: Do you suppose Lawrence Butler has one other gear?  Contact price wasn’t too dangerous final 12 months for a 23yo with nice energy.  Straightforward to dream on him nonetheless bettering.  He’s thrilling.  A’s offense might be sneaky good

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, suppose he’s a fantastic longshot MVP wager in the event you’re into that kind of factor. Who is aware of how Sac will play?

Justin: Most likely a greater query for Successfully Wild, however let’s say a participant was a 0 WAR participant whereas seeing a mean quantity of pitches per PA.   Let’s say he switched to main the league in foul outs and considerably main the league pitches per PA.   Off the highest of your head, do you suppose that provides some kind of hidden WAR to this participant?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmmmmm

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if I’d classify it as “WAR” that’s being added since what he’s doing has much less of an influence on the precise baseball recreation, and extra of an influence on the opponents stamina…

Eric A Longenhagen: however in the event you wished to quantify it possibly there’s some pitch degradation examine you possibly can do after which apply that “worth” to hitters who grind out at-bats…

Eric A Longenhagen: To not point out the little cues your teammates choose up on as they watch you spoil pitches.

Justin: Once you have a look at a man like Justin Crawford, and that he’s not fairly bodily mature, how do you bake that into rankings/valuations?   Do you rank him primarily based on what you suppose he’ll be if he does fill out and add power?  do you rank him primarily based on who he’s now?  someplace in between, primarily based on possibilities of every?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m pleased to undertaking *power* for any participant who seems projectable. Projecting swing or mechanics overhauls? I’m not as cozy doing that.

John: You talked about suppressed affords for Stop, you’ve any perception on what has been provided?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard some names from scouts who they consider groups have stated, “no, you’ll be able to’t have that man.”

Bencle Mens: Talking of hip-shoulder separation, I’ve been teaching highschool throwing (shotput, discus) and it’s pure to some and to not others. Looks like a easy idea to show however it isn’t.

Eric A Longenhagen: Little doubt, I feel it’s simply an innate factor that a few of us have and others don’t. I can’t bend, as an example.

FrankenGM: For those who may Frankenstein a MLB GM, what would you do? Ex: the PD of Andrew Friedman, the buying and selling large leaguers for prospects of Neander, the drafting of Elias?

Eric A Longenhagen: Throw Gillick within the Lazarus Pit.

Jonathan: You talked about Drey Jameson.  It looks as if his supply limits what may in any other case be a tantalizing profile.  Is there any sort of winding developmental path that finally ends up with a beginning pitcher with common command of three plus pitches, or is the clay dry at this level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I simply suppose he’s a fantastic athlete and a troublesome s.o.b., and the fixed league-wide attrition at that place means it’s good to have as many dudes who may give you 5 innings as potential…

Eric A Longenhagen: But additionally, yeah he or Yilber would most likely be actually nasty if they simply ‘penned them proper now.

Bencle Mens: If draft picks had been extra tradeable, akin to NFL draft picks, would buying and selling up for faculty hitters be like buying and selling up for quarterbacks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice query. I ponder if it’d be elite school pitchers. The mix of their readiness with contending groups’ wants…

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody like Baltimore may deal quite a bit to go up and get Chase Burns, proper/

Eric A Longenhagen: My proper Shift key’s damaged lol

tumtum: No concept whether or not others may agree, however aren’t steel bats in school slightly foolish?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s, the one factor that I can sympathize with is the price of breakable picket bats racking up in your program and/or youngsters.

Eric A Longenhagen: And having to journey with soooo many bats if everyone seems to be utilizing wooden.

The solar: Are you a bucket hat man?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, however girls I’m interested in appear to be into them for no matter cause. And fanny packs. How’d that occur? I’ve been sporting beanies currently as a result of it’s winter and to maintain my too-long hair out of my face and no matter I’m cooking.

Bounce backs?: Are there any prospects whose worth dropped as a result of they struggled in 2024 however you besides (or hope) they are going to bounce again this season (eg Bryan Ramos)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ramos is an fascinating instance, if he can have one thing near common contact and energy however be a plus glove, that’ll play.

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda suppose issues will click on for Misiorowski in ’25

KC: Do you’re feeling Colt Emerson has the potential to be the #1 total prospect at the moment subsequent 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, good participant although.

George: On the Shinnosuke Ogasawara query, how do you see the Nats rotation beginning out, accidents apart? Looks like Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara, Williams, Soroka, and Cavalli all appear decently within the combine.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel Herz is a RP however in any other case suppose you’ve hem in a reasonably good order, with Cade being the wild card. The place’s Jake Bennett at in his TJ restoration? He’s the sneaky one not on there.

Joe: What’s Enrique Bradfield’s ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leadoff hitting on a regular basis CF, Michael Bourn sort man

Eric A Longenhagen: Noticed Valera in late Might and he was nasty however tremendous wild. Reyes, dude, I like him quite a bit however solely noticed him in passing as I used to be engaged on Pirates stuff. It’s powerful to get loopy with a man who threw…

Eric A Longenhagen: 17 innings final 12 months tho

Eric A Longenhagen: Yoiker I haven’t watched but, he solely exists on paper to me atm

Phil: You missed Dombrowski’s potential to get homeowners to spend $$

Eric A Longenhagen: A lot of any of those jobs is social.

Pete Alonso & Jack Flaherty: Did being outspoken about Manfred juicing balls and union management adjustments damage our market?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I don’t suppose so. Pete is hard as a result of if anybody goes to age like Mo Vaughn, it’s that man. He looks as if a sweetheart of a man, however I wouldn’t break the financial institution for him. Flaherty idk, what does that man’s medical seem like? If I’m him I simply look ahead to guys to get damage throughout ST and hope it creates extra demand.

Scotty: If there have been wooden bats in school, do you suppose that will materially change scouts’ talents to evaluate school hitters’ talents to transition to the professionals?

Tacoby Bellsbury: How usually do you’ve the time to step again and have a look at your work from a ten,000-foot course of degree? What have you ever been capable of take from that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a reflective man however usually issues I’m tweaking are very particular and never broad, sweeping adjustments to the general factor. It’s very uncommon for me to really take lengthy intervals of time mapping out a 5 or ten 12 months plan for myself. Too many sports activities to observe.

Fred: My vibe on the Yankees is they’re good at turning off the radar arms into actual prospects however not so good at graduating them to be significant contributors.  Truthful or unfair?

Eric A Longenhagen: They so usually commerce the fellows who might be that

Kate: Did you get any seems to be at Edwin Arroyo within the AFL?  In that case, did he look principally intact post-injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: He did, nonetheless suppose he’s extra of a forty five, however he’s an actual SS who’s going to get to the facility he has due to the way in which his swing is geared. Smaller lad, although.

Willie Mays Hays: When is prospect week scheduled for this 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is going to begin to week following the Tremendous Bowl, Tuesday or Wednesday and spilling into the next week. Up to date draft rankings, the highest 100, some notes on subsequent 12 months’s high Int’l guys, my Picks to Click on, and mucho mas.

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, I’ve run the sunshine right here. time to go. thanks for coming, see you subsequent week.