Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/8/24

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon gang!

Dan Szymborski: Effectively, not an organized gang

Dallas: Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit extra persistently, and is there any probability some group is likely to be keen to commerce for him this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: He’s an honest contact hitter, however his pitch choice has all the time been relatively dysfunctional; he’s not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, however he hits lots of relatively mediocre pitches and lets lots of good ones go by

Dan Szymborski: Add in taht he has energy upside and the swings in fortune may be fairly intense

White Sox FO: What “outdoors the field” supervisor ought to I exploit for the remainder of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Draw a random seatholder each seventh inning stretch and make that particular person the supervisor for the following sport.

Dan: Two good begins for Kikuchi after the Astros have modified his pitch utilization. Had been these calling this deal a fleece overreacting?

Dan Szymborski: The factor is, the commerce should still *might* have been greater than what was wanted to get him

Dan Szymborski: In any case, I wasn’t fairly as unfavorable concerning the commerce as some others had been. I don’t just like the prospects fairly as a lot and I appreciated Kikuchi extra (which is why I included him in my fantasy commerce piece this 12 months)

Dan Szymborski: Although I didn’t give the Blue Jays as a lot in prospects

Datt Mamon: Are you in any manner bullish on Gavin Stone shifting ahead (that means subsequent season, actually)? He appears to have hit a little bit of a wall.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s actually not *dangerous*

Dan Szymborski: however he appears to have issues ending off batters on two strikes

Dan Szymborski: (and that is purely from my emotions, I can’t actually dig too deep within the context of a fast chat)

Matt: There’ve been a number of complaints concerning the useless ball impacting offensive manufacturing this 12 months.  Do you suppose that’s true? And in that case, how does ZIPS account for the useless ball when projecting numbers for future seasons?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s very possible, however I don’t have enough info to say it’s true. Sadly, there’s not a lot to do; MLB has no transparency on their ball building and I’ve no manner of understanding what offense will probably be like sooner or later past what it’s lately

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Curious to know the way a lot clout you’ve got within the baseball world. Like for those who had one of the best thought that may save baseball, do you’ve got contacts the place you may make a name to the commissioner and pitch your thought?

Dan Szymborski: Determining one’s personal fame is an unimaginable job to method objectively. My intestine tells me no, however I can’t be constructive about that.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even certain what my fame is for those who simply polled the smaller analytics group. I *suspect* folks like my work and maybe dislike me personally, however I don’t actually knwo that

Visitor: CJ Abrams laughs within the face of pitch choice, turning Birdsong into Wormcophany

Dan Szymborski: heh

Phil: Tony La Russa is ready by the telephone.

Eddie: Form of apparent NYY ought to be going Soto Choose 1,2 however we all know that received’t occur. In the event that they need to bat 2nd and third, would you flip them at this level?

Dan Szymborski: Given how little totally different lineups are, I’d mainly put gamers the place they’re comfy until the thought is ludicrous

Dan Szymborski: Like if Martin Maldonado feels most comfortably main off, I don’t try this

AARON JUDGE!!: How a lot has helped his remainder of profession projections this 12 months by displaying that 2022 was not a fluke?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly a bit, however age and damage historical past nonetheless type of maintain down these numbers

Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for him for the Corridor *proper now* although, based mostly on his insane peak

Dan Szymborski: He was solely 208th in HRs via 20s, which tends to maintain down the profession totals

McGraw45: All time favourite minor leaguer? Hank McGraw (Tug’s brother) is a legend in my household, who all say he was higher than Tug however groups wouldn’t promote him for being a hippie

Dan Szymborski: Luke Easter. After his MLB profession led to his late 30s, he mainly mentioned “screw that” and dominated the Worldwide League for almost one other *decade*

Visitor: Is Benintendi’s future ZiPS projection now unfavorable for the rest of his profession?

Visitor: if Joe Ryan makes his subsequent begin what number of hats will Thomas Woodrooffe’s descendants eat

Dan Szymborski: (hold on for Benintendi)

Dan Szymborski: In equity, he didn’t actually eat his hat, only a hat-shaped cake, IIRC

Dan Szymborski: You need to by no means make bets, brags, or boasts that you would be able to’t feasibly fulfill.

Dan Szymborski: Like, I mentioned I’d eat Cincinnati chili if Kyle Nelson didn’t end the season with an ERA beneath 4. I didn’t say I’d eat a 2011 Toyota Corolla.

Justin: By way of a making it a much less excessive atmosphere, I all the time surprise if the Rockies would have been higher constructing Coors Area with nearer fences and a smaller outfield. Do you suppose the tradeoff between extra homers and a decrease Babip could be price it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually unsure what one of the best method is.

Dan Szymborski: The group is definitely slowly bettering, however I’ve zero religion in possession

Dan Szymborski: If Bridich was nonetheless there, Brenton Doyle could be in Japan by now and Tovar blocked by Amed Rosario or somebody

#1MetsFan: Baseball is enjoyable sport. Its a possibilities wonderland, the place every pitch adjustments the stats for everyone on the sphere. That being mentioned, inform me I’m improper after I say the Mets will fall simply out of the wild card spot. TELL ME!

Dan Szymborski: You’re a Mets fan. The Mets might have a 15 sport lead within the NL East in mid-september and your intestine would say they’ll most likely simply lose 16 video games within the standings within the final two weeks!

Huge Mind Boy.: Cubs 9 of their final 12. Do they sneak in to the Wild Card?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually POSSIBLE

Dan Szymborski: The NL Central didn’t characteristic a ton of aggressive shopping for and the Cubs had been all the time higher than their report

Atheist Yelich: Should you had the ability to decide on the playoff format in any doable manner (variety of groups, video games in every collection, and so on.), what format would you select that optimizes the standard of the postseason, commerce deadline, incentive for groups to strive, and so on

Dan Szymborski: There are lots of codecs I’d choose

Dan Szymborski: However one factor I completely would do with out the most important adjustments is require the lower-seeded group to brush to win a 3 sport collection.

Dan Szymborski: There’s nothing inherently improper with having giant playoffs, as long as the problem of advancing within the playoffs displays the season and is giant sufficient to be significant

Dan Szymborski: You could possibly feasibly design an prolonged playoff system by which permitting *all* 30 groups in is smart.

Dan Szymborski: Not essentially a *sensible* one given time constraints although

Dan Szymborski: I completely don’t thoughts the White Sox getting a shot to topple the Phillies. However that shot must be one thing like a seven-game sweep.

#1MetsFan: And what’s for lunch.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not an consuming day

Visitor: You’ve been appointed new supervisor of the White Sox. How quickly are you able to be in Chicago?

Dan Szymborski: I feel I’d go and commit the least severe crime that may take me out of consideration for the job

Huge Mind Boy.: Ideas on White Sox firing supervisor?

Dan Szymborski: deck chairs, Titanic

Visitor: greatest pasta form aesthetically?

Dan Szymborski: alphabet. I like consuming loopy phrases

druidiful: I do know its not you, however who ought to we inform that it seems just like the leaderboard web page isnt up to date accurately? It’s saying that Choose solely has 38 homers and Witt has 19 after they each have extra. The participant pages are appropriate, until you go into sport logs which have the final sport as 8/4/24.

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs twitter is often learn fairly rigorously

Dan Szymborski: Telling me isn’t a nasty thought although, I’m possible one of many simpler folks to get ahold of and I can convey it up on slack

Dan Szymborski: When folks on Reddit categorical FanGraphs points, I often convey them up

Playing cards fan: What was it that your system noticed about Masynn Winn final 12 months while you had him as large mover ?  It by no means appeared that he confirmed in MILB what he’s displaying in MLB however clearly zips noticed it

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if there was something *particularly* that it noticed in him apart from the truth that he repeated the 12 months at a excessive stage whereas nonetheless actually younger in 2023

Dan Szymborski: as in repeated his 2022 efficiency

Dan Szymborski: Even with ZiPS not going full neural community, it’s complicated sufficient that it will possibly typically be tough to all the time grok out the why

Dan’s Mother: Is Zips able to predicting MVP? If that’s the case, does it have Choose or Witt as AL MVP.

Dan Szymborski: I do have an MVP predictor, although I haven’t used it. Perhaps I shoudl for Monday!

Rob: I such as you personally. They will go f themselves.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not likely THAT likable

#1MetsFan: You narrow so deep along with your reality. Thanks Dan

Mike Trout: Can ZIPS estimate the percentages of us each seeing a 150-game Mike Trout season once more? And would you take into account it dependable, or is the science of damage prediction not far more superior than the science of dowsing for water?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t do a nasty job — weirdly, from Jeff Z’s work, ZiPS really does a extremely good job at predicting taking part in time for guys we *know* are main leaguers

Dan Szymborski: However I’m unsure it’s THAT exact

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t actually have it configured to offer that readout simply

Adam: The White Sox had an opportunity to do the funniest factor and fireplace Grifol the day they lastly received a sport.  So shut.

Visitor: however Dan I assumed ZiPS was simply you spitballing numbers

Frank: How apprehensive are we about Corbin Burnes? He doesn’t appear as sharp recently (though nonetheless getting wins).

Dan Szymborski: I’m not

Dan Szymborski: however I can solely communicate for myself

Native: Is there a solution to hearken to ones native group announcers as soon as the playoffs come or solely the nationwide broadcasters?

Dan Szymborski: I feel you’d have to rent them with out them violating their contracts?

captain planet: WITHOUT LOOKING: Who was the higher pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda or Daisuke Matsusaka?

Dan Szymborski: Simply Kuroda, as long as we’re speaking MLB

Visitor: even when the White Sox don’t cross the 2003 Tigers in losses, what are the possibilities they handle to do it in GB? at the moment 40.5 behind Cleveland; Detroit ended up 47 again in ’03

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m not likely outfitted for that

Benjamin, J: Should you’re the Guardians, what prospect would you promote to offer an offensive jolt within the arm? Brito? Manzardo? Valera?

Dan Szymborski: Manzardo

I Miss Kyle in Boston: Apologies if that is doubling up my query, new to the chats and unsure if it despatched the primary time. Schwarber goes to complete his age 31 season with ~280 house runs, does he have an outdoor probability at 500?

Dan Szymborski: I get an absurd quantity of questions, so me with the ability to unanswer defintiely doesn’t imply I didn’t see

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he has a about 180 left in him earlier than decline takes him away, in order that’s actually sufficient to have an outdoor probability at 500

Dan Szymborski: (180 not together with this 12 months)

Adam: Does ZiPS have a solution to approximate an entire season out of groups given their roster building at a selected second?  In different phrases, what number of wins would the July model of the Dodgers with all their accidents be anticipated to supply over a full season?

Dan Szymborski: So long as I’ve the roster, ZiPS does that

TomBruno23: Favourite MiLBer is Ramon Sambo. Man might swipe some luggage. At present a coach with the Norfolk Tides.

Visitor: greatest method for Rockies: transfer group to Loss of life Valley

2025 Orioles: Fairly, how significantly better might the Orioles lineup be subsequent 12 months (assuming Santander is retained)? They’re Prime 3 this 12 months, however there’s a hoard of younger hitters. Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, and so on. will probably be one other 12 months into their careers. Or would you let Santander stroll and put all your accessible cash into pitching contemplating all the accidents and query marks there?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they’re kinda close to the place they’ll possible be. When you’re this good, the danger is usually one-sided

Dan Szymborski: oh crap, I used to be speculated to do Andrew Benintendi

Dan Szymborski: proejction

Jason N: I’ve a query impressed by Angel Hernandez.  When he retired, I learn some commentary on FG (Ben possibly?) claiming that Hernandez was rated a median umpire a decade in the past and it speaks to how a lot umpiring has improved.  Received me serious about Maddux and Glavine for some cause.  I keep in mind a lot broadcaster commentary about how they labored the skin of the zone so properly that they recurrently loved an expanded strike zone because the video games went on.  In the event that they had been taking part in in immediately’s sport with these umps (and their gradual fastballs), do you suppose both of them would thrive in a contemporary rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Was he? It actually didn’t really feel that manner!

Dan Szymborski: If he’s higher than I assumed, the AI tune I wrote for his retirement is basically imply.

Jon D: Pirates are a playoff group when? What do they should add this offseason to make your reply 2025?

Dan Szymborski: They’d really want so as to add bats in free company and pay for them

Dan Szymborski: They coudl actually signal Juan Soto and have a considerably below-average payroll. They received’t, after all

Pirates Hurdles: If Schwarbs did get to 500, he would have the bottom WAR by anybody by virtually 2 fold lower than Papi.

Dan Szymborski: Somebody’s gotta be worst at one thing

Dan Szymborski: If Nick Markakis had held on a bit longer, he coudl’ve been the worst 3000 hit member

Dan Szymborski: and there’s an honest probability that Giancarlo Stanton is definitely the worst 500 homer hitter ever

Dan Szymborski: (If schwarber doesn’t get there)

Harry: Should you had been AA how would you method shortstop this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: relies upon if I can lengthen Bichette

Dan Szymborski: err

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: braves

Dan Szymborski: (sorry, I nonetheless affiliate AA with the Jays for the primary few seconds I take into consideration him)

Dan Szymborski: I might go severely after Adames if I’m the Braves

Choose’s Protection: Choose is getting killed on the defensive metrics proper now. If I’m studying the participant pages proper he’s being credited for -15 UZR runs in 57 innings in proper discipline. This is sufficient to give Witt the general WAR lead. What’s inflicting this? The metrics all really feel he’s significantly better in middle than proper.

Dan Szymborski: You’re not studying the suitable column

Dan Szymborski: He has -0.5 UZR at RF in 57 innings. He has -15.3 UZR *per 150 video games* in RF this 12 months, which is only a tempo measurement

Dan Szymborski: And in any case, WAR hasn’t used UZR in a couple of years

Dan Szymborski: so even when he had been at -15 runs in 57 innings in RF in UZR, it will haven’t any impact on his WAR

Dan Szymborski: And there’s no conclusion concerning the RF/CF cut up to attract since 57 innings is nearly nugatory to attract a conclusion from

Dan Szymborski: We don’t have a full profession of statcast fielding, however based mostly on UZR, the eight run distinction between his UZR/150 in rightfield (9.1) and his UZR/150 in middle (1.2) will not be noteworthy. Typical is about 10 runs.

Adam: Who’s one of the best guess for a group to a) miss this 12 months’s playoffs, and b) make it subsequent 12 months?  What concerning the reverse?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs most likely for the primary one?

Dan Szymborski: The largest differential for the second *would possibly* be the Yankees proper now, just because Juan Soto is unsigned

Dreamin: How significantly better does Ketel Marte need to be than Ohtani over the remainder of the season to win the MVP?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability an excellent bit

Dan Szymborski: I feel lots of people are unaware simply how ridiculous Ketel’s been because the begin of June

Visitor: Why are you hanging out within the Rockies subreddit?

Dan Szymborski: I make a number of poor choices

Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time for me to go out for one more week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks as all the time for popping out, and I hope to see you subsequent time!

Dan Szymborski: OH CRAP HANGON

Dan Szymborski: 12 months BA OBP SLG WAR   2025 .260 .327 .383 0.8   2026 .257 .325 .376 0.6   2027 .258 .326 .377 0.6   2028 .252 .318 .363 0.2   2029 .249 .319 .361 0.0   2030 .226 .291 .301 -0.2

Smiling Politely: Excited to make the reside chat!

Dan, I’m the one one left on Gavin Lux Hill, however I do know you had been there with me. Does he have a future as a constructive platoon bat, no less than? He’s been hitting fairly properly because the ASG, however after all, that doesn’t negate *historical past*

Dan Szymborski: I feel on the very least he’s an excellent complementary expertise

Dan Szymborski: okay, NOW I’m going