HomeBlogDan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/1/24


12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!
12:02
Ryan: Do you assume the Padres have a shot of operating down the Dodgers? The offense is buzzing and that bullpen appears insanely filthy.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A shot? Sure. But it surely’s an uphill combat. Dodgers are a wonderful group. The Padres have to not simply be actually good, they should have the Dodgers hit a few of their swingy harm danger of their high-end expertise
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I feel I’d take the over on what the true mystical chance is that we will’t truly inform
12:03
Sam: ZiPS appears to essentially like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it as a result of his swing is nicely suited to Fenway?  Equally within the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full 12 months projection is with the Purple Sox now – is that this projecting him enjoying half his video games at Fenway?
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, the positioning doesn’t reformulate the previous projections
12:04
Kenshin Kawakami: Soler moved the ZIPS postseason needle greater than I anticipated for the Braves. I do know that’s largely because of the sub substitute stage nook outfielders they’ve been operating out, however is it flawed to be skeptical of Soler when he has to get again to enjoying outfield?
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re not flawed to be skeptical. However I *did* venture Soler as a nook outfielder, which takes a success
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s danger, however Atlanta’s outfield is TERRIBLE this 12 months
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 0.7 mixed WAR. And that’s with Acuña’s slightly disappointing-for-him 1.1 WAR
12:05
Harry: There’s been lots of dialogue this 12 months in regards to the DH and 1B penalties, and it appears more likely to be reevaluated at some kind of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you’ve an opinion on the positional changes as they at the moment stand/do
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve been one pushing for an adjustment for a pair years. However we’re speaking a couple of runs right here and there. It’ll solely be an actual distinction over lengthy careers
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DH is one I’ve been pushing for since earlier than I even labored for FG!
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like mgl, each manner I take a look at DH vs. 1B, there’s a small penalty from sitting in your ass that each DH has to face
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s like a extremely gentle model of the PH penalty
12:07
Dallas: I’m unsure if it’s truthful to say the Pirates have soured on Henry Davis, nevertheless between Endy Rodriguez returning and Joey Bart’s emergence wouldn’t it be truthful to say they could commerce him this offseason in a baseball commerce?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It *coudl* occur for positive, however there’s not lots of commerce worth there. I feel the Pirates are nonetheless determining how every thing kinds out
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I doubt the group is totally bought on Joey Bart turning his profession 180 after…fewer than 180 PA
12:08
Crone Zone: If you happen to had Michael King in fantasy, would you maintain as a result of he’s been superior or attempt to promote for a comparable asset as a result of he’s been superior and the variety of innings he’ll throw this 12 months scares you?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It ALWAYS is determined by the commerce
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Each participant has a value you’d trad ethem at
12:09
John: So far as Purple Sox prospects go, I feel Kristian Campbell has tackle the title of most polarizing now that Rafaela has graduated.  What does ZiPS consider this 12 months within the minors this 12 months?
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes it very a lot! He’ll have a reasonably beefy projection subsequent 12 months for positive
12:10
Harry: On their respective contracts, would you slightly have Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel Carroll, however it’s actually up for debate
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Carroll’s possible upside is arguably balanced by the additional 35 million or no matter
12:11
M’s Fan: Would the commerce deadline have been extra thrilling with out the third wildcard?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In all probability not
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Anybody combating for a 3rd wildcard is probably going additionally combating for a second wildcard
12:11
JamesStirling: Hello Dan, Will Feddie and Pham thrive in St Louis or simply be common?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel they’ll be effective, however unexciting
12:12
Datt Mamon: What are the chances that Eloy stays wholesome and figures it out with the Orioles?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly low, I feel
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Suppose the O’s are simply taking a scratch-and-win
12:12
Kip: Have you ever performed Eldin Ring?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I truly haven’t gotten round to Elden Ring
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: one of many issues is there are such a lot of issues to play and I’m a 46-year-old man with a full-time job so I can’t play everythign I would like
12:13
Ralph: As soon as he’s been in a position to reacclimate off the harm, ought to Dominguez be taking these Verdugo at bats?
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ideally, I might
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Verdugo’s principally a stopgap starter. While you don’t have the hole to cease, he must be farther again within the fridge
12:14
Kip: Cleveland provides up actual prospects for Lane Thomas and Atlanta provides up a non prospects and takes on some cash for higher manufacturing. /Jesse Pinkman he can’t preserve getting away with it gif for Alex Anthopoulos/
12:14
TooDamnTall: The place have you ever been!?! (After I miss chats, I nonetheless blame you)
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to be away, then I had a nasty head/chest chilly, and a conflicting physician’s appointment
12:15
Edward: Ben Rice NYY 1B of the longer term?
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go THAT far
12:15
Champdo: Of the non Riley Greene Tiger place gamers who do you assume would be the most efficient subsequent season? Keith? Perez, Meadows? Perhaps Jung?
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it shut between Keith/Jung, although I’ll depart it within the air whether or not it’s as a result of ZiPS actually likes Keith/Jung or it’s actually sad about Tigers after Riley Greene
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Greene greater than two WAR forward of subsequent Tiger
12:16
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Hey Dan, what does ZiPS venture for changing Jordan Westburg with Ramon Urias? What in the event that they name up Coby Mayo on the finish of August?
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can’t do a full season sim rapidly! It’s a loss although, and it in all probability shaves a pair factors off division possibilities and playoff prob
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes Mayo
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure the O’s would truly do it, however I’d say “fuck it” and simply stick in Mayo because the starter
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The playoffs are nearly assured. Roll the cube on teh division as a result of Urias is meh as a starter
12:18
Johnny: How a lot of a success is being a Met on J Winker’s PT?

Do you assume Kopech will get any saves in LA?

Do you assume G Holmes is a worthwhile NL 5×5 add?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some, in all probability not, is determined by the dimensions of the league because you’ll solely get ERA/WHIP from him and never many innings
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, strikeouts too, however not large counting
12:20
James: Ought to the Astros have any type of innings restrict for Blanco, or simply understand that is in all probability the very best season he’ll have and milk it?
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Given his age and the closeness fo the race, I think about the Astros will use him extra like a veteran
12:21
Honkus Wagner: favourite tune off Nevermind?
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Come As You Are
12:22
Drew: What’s one thing usually undervalued by most entrance workplaces that the nice entrance workplaces worth appropriately? Based mostly on current drafts by the Dodgers (my private gold customary) pace is changing into extra emphasised.
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually? Danger
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel the very best groups are those which have the very best understanding of danger, each good and badf
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Take a look at the Dodgers and the way they accumulate dangerous, fascinating pitching. They’re snug simply having a bunch of dudes who could also be wholesome, however who might have actually high-end efficiency, and keen to simply accept there may be a time that they roll poorly and there are too many accidents, and so they’ll should cope with it
12:24
Bob: Any ideas / projections on Joey Wiemer after commerce to the Reds ? Outfield in dire want of upside. Thanks.
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume he’s the droid you’re in search of
12:25
Insert Witty Title Right here: Has anybody reviewed Dombrowski’s file of prospects he traded away?
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Perhaps? It’s not 1997, so I’m not acquainted with every thing analytical that’s been written
12:25
Insert Witty Title Right here: What’s it like being a childless cat dude?
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Full nights of sleep and I preserve my revenue, however a better danger of stepping in chilly vomit at 3 AM
12:27
Chris Davis: What precisely was behind Chris Davis’s speedy decline?
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Terrible, terrible contact hitter and pitchers finally found out methods to get round him swinging out of his sneakers
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And attempting to treatment it, he didn’t have adequate palte self-discipline, and he obtained REALLY terrible at selecting to swing on the good pitches to hit
12:28
Alex Cobb Appreciator: How do I persuade fellow Guardians followers that remainder of season projections which have this group at .500 are cheap based mostly on a trash rotation and mid offense, and never the results of a anti-Cleveland cabal placing out biased projections?
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS truly stil likes the Guardians!
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But when that doesn’t persuade them, you in all probability can’t
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’ll by no means persuade a cussed fan of something with a pc projection
12:29
Refugee: Jud Fabian a ZiPS high 100 prospect??
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Definitely not now
12:29
Orange stripey cat: Is Tampa going to make Dylan Carlson into the All Star that John Mozeliak was publicly fantasizing about 3 years in the past?
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They might? However in all probability not
12:29
Flangraphs: On the lookout for a great flan recipe
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually do desserts
12:30
Hon: Dan! What the heck are the Orioles doing? Eflin is a welcome addition, however their strikes within the outfield are head scratching, and with Westburg on the shelf the Holliday promotion doesn’t really feel as horny as I hoped it will…
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eflin was, once more, an enormous eflin deal
12:30
SudsTerkel: This White Sox factor…there’s zero cause for hope so long as Jerry Reinsdorf owns the group, proper?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In all probability no hope
12:30
Visitor: is there a approach to estimate a participant’s twentieth/eightieth pctl ZiPS based mostly on their fiftieth?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, the typical of the 2 received’t be FAR off, however when do you’ve twentieth/eightieth and never the projection?
12:31
Thanks for the chat!: It appears lots of groups are touchdown on comparable group constructing methods. The place would you search for a counter technique to probably stand out?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not truly positive you are able to do a counter technique
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The issue is a substantial amount of what wins baseball video games is “solved” particularly offense
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What it’s a must to do is reap the benefits of your particular state of affairs as finest you possibly can
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: just like the Sox can’t make an elite offense differently than most elite offenses
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However they’ll take dangers that the great groups can’t
12:33
Oaktown Blues: Is ZiPS shopping for the Lawrence Butler breakout? Are you?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t. I’m nonetheless on the fence
12:34
The Oriole Chicken: Per your article this morning–which was nice, BTW–the O’s have the best probability of profitable the WS at the moment.  Did I learn that proper??
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure, ZiPS already just like the Orioles rather a lot
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: regardless of what Reddit thinks
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All of the playoff matchups obtained higher rotation-wise
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and this offers them a lift in division title likelihood, which is a HUGE deal
12:34
Visitor: the Cubs have gotten smarter, Matt Shaw will get to “work on his protection” in AA as an alternative of AAA to keep away from service time accusations
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh
12:35
MNLakes: In a case just like the Twins lack of trades do you place extra weight (blame) on possession slashing payroll or the entrance workplace not pulling the set off on making any influence trades?
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A variety of instances its an possession subject
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Rockies can be lots higher with completely different possession or a change in possession involvement
12:36
Colton: Who do you assume goes to be the most important mover in ZiPS projections this offseason? Jarren Duran?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Durran is up there
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did two articles on it!
12:36
mile low: should you had been pressure rating GMs is Billy Schmidt 31?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s onerous to charge GMs aside from the remainder of the group
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly assured that Rockies possession had their hand in lots of disasters for the group, such because the Desmond/Bryant signings and the quiet commerce deadlines
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: close to 100% on Bryant
12:38
romorr: Did you see the Holliday grand slam dwell, Dan? I do know you’re an Orioles fan, simply curious should you obtained to take pleasure in it. With the struggles, that needed to really feel nice for him.
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I missed it dwell
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, I had it on, however I used to be engrossed in my ZiPS wrapup article
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I had the sound on one thing else
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Relying on the timing, I both had a recording of Bruckner’s seventh or Yanks-Phils
12:40
Steven: Does Witt have to finest Decide in Warfare by a good quantity to win MVP?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel it relies upon simply the place Decide’s numbers find yourself
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If he hits 60 once more, hes’ going to be actually onerous to beat
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: even with trendy baseball writers typically being higher at this
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even in WAR it’s fairly shut and Decide has an edge on elements of WAR which can be extra SOLID. We all know offense fairly nicely. However issues like positional adjustment and even defensive efficiency are a bit extra summary.
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I feel it an in depth race, the tie goes to the stable
12:44
mile low: m toglia anticipated oba .348.  if zips extra bullish on him lately?
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mildly
12:45
James: Does 85 wins take the AL West? Nobody appears to need it.
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the typical results of the eventual AL West winner as 86.7 wins
12:46
Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Crochet killed his personal commerce market proper? No group’s gonna commerce for him with out understanding what sort of extension it will take to get him to pitch within the postseason.
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It added a complete bunch of danger for a pitcher who already had some danger
12:46
The Oriole Chicken: Westburg harm hurts.  You assume Mayo is getting known as up very quickly?
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: .I’ve no particular information on this
12:46
Wealthy: January 1, 2030. The place will the A’s be headquartered?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In all probability Vegas. Ultimately, cities often cave and provides groups no matter they need, ultimately
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thought it will be humorous in the event that they’re nonetheless enjoying in Sacramento
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, not for A’s followers
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however Fisher can be sad, and that makes me glad
12:47
Wealthy: What are Vaughn/Torkelson price going ahead. Does the Rooker Reclamation current a path ahead in salvaging their careers?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not a lot.
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And positive, there’s at all times a second or third likelihood, however even Rooker’s worth dropped to only about nothing at one piont
12:48
John B: What do you make of Jordan Walker (possible 2023 rookie of the 12 months !) not with the ability to put it collectively in AAA in 2024?  Is that this frequent ?  Or doesn’t appear frequent
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s uncommon, however not THAT unusual
12:49
Key Flaw: As an O’s fan, I’ve at all times felt the dagger of the Glen Davis commerce. Yeah, it was dangerous again then (particularly since Randy Milligan was the superior participant anyway), however who would have identified that the gamers they traded away can be THAT good (heck, a straight up Harnish-Davis commerce would have been a fleecing of the O’s, not to mention Finley and Schilling). What does ZiPS consider the commerce on the time?
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’m actually it will be fairly awful
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve appeared on the gamers earlier than and whereas ZiPS was lukewarm on Finley, it preferred Harnisch and Schilling fairly a bit
12:51
Cito Gaston’s mustache: I identified it’s small pattern dimension, however are you anxious in any respect that father time has lastly caught as much as Kershaw?
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hasn’t it kinda already?
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Till you get close to 40, pitchers break mor ethan they age
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and he’s kinda damaged lots
12:51
matt w: About Henry Davis (and perhaps extra typically relevant): ought to I be saying “He can’t presumably be as dangerous as he’s appeared within the majors if he’s hitting this nicely in AAA” or ought to I be anxious that the rising hole between AAA and the majors means there can be extra guys who mash in AAA and by no means determine it out within the majors? Or one thing else?
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve been tinkering with the info for Ben L. on the topic and I’m not truly discovering an rising hole. A few of it (although not on this case) seems to be individuals nonetheless haven’t absorbed how completely different the offensive environments are between AAA and MLB proper now
12:53
Chris Getz: If Miguel Vargas turns right into a 2 win participant, does that imply the Fedde commerce was stable?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Perhaps? On a win foundation, in all probability, however the White Sox must be chasing ceilings, not reliable two-win guys
12:53
Re: Childless Cat Dude: Nicely as a catless youngster dude I can say you in all probability have much less likelihood of being hit with heat vomit at 3 AM
12:53
CONCERNED PARENT: Dan I can’t bear in mind should you had been somebody that ever tweeted about Magic The Gathering or not, in that case have you ever been enjoying Bloomburrow? Greatest set in years.
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually performed Magic for the reason that 90s
12:54
DJ Tofu: How usually do 3 12 months projections of ZiPS get refreshed?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Those on FG, simply in the beginning of the season. I’ve been contemplating rerolling them on the ASB subsequent 12 months
12:54
Visitor: the 20/80 based mostly on 50, not 50 based mostly on 20/80, Dan ; )
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh geez
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yeah, I don’t assume you may get 20/80 from 50
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I will need to have learn the query flawed
12:54
Insert Witty Title Right here: Do you assume the MLBPA ought to push within the subsequent CBA not a cap flooring or ceiling, however a minimal customary of participant services? Studying tales about how the A’s and Pirates and so on skimp on stuff like coaching rooms and vitamin and all that, maybe that may be a great win to get.
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It could be good, however they have a tendency to concentrate on probably the most bang for the buck when it comes to time
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I truthfully don’t assume the MLBPA is in a fantastic bargaining place
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One of many issues that has at all times helped the MLBPA traditionally is house owners being useless and undisciplined
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However the house owners have a built-in benefit: lots of them can wait it out a *lot* longer than a 23-year-old prospect
12:57
Dmx: No pitch clock within the ninth inning- what say you?
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nah
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t like guidelines that change
12:57
Vegeta: Heard Thunder Kiss ‘65 for the primary time this week modified my world. Any unheard tune equally change your world?
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually, not that I can consider
12:57
Visitor: How usually do you watch video games?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Any time there’s a sport on, there’s a sport on
12:58
Wi-fi Joe Jackson: Any likelihood we will get an replace on the chances of the White Sox breaking the loss file?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I truly posted it final evening on Twitter!
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or this morning
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: hmm
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: cling on
12:59
AL Melee: What’s extra shocking? The AL Central being extra aggressive than anticipated or the AL West being worse than anticipated?
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: AL West in all probability
12:59
Junkballer: If you happen to had been to reply truthfully, can we really feel like several projection methods actually may give an correct view on what to anticipate out of Aaron Decide over the following 5 years? It simply seems like there are so few 6’7, 295 pound people on the market, a lot much less elite baseball gamers who put up profession years at 32 when most others are declining. You would inform me he might flip into an injured pumpkin subsequent 12 months or might be doing this 5 years from now and each appear possible.
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure Decide is *notably* troublesome to venture exterior of well being
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: we’ll see in 2029! lol
1:00
Junkballer: It could be enjoyable to run an evaluation on historic ZIPs verdicts on among the most perceived (on the time) lopsided trades and see which of them netted out lopsided in the long term
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do particular person trades from time to time. I feel I did one thing on ESPN some years in the past that was a ridiculous quantity of hours for a single piece
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did do the worst trades of teh free company period in 2012, however it wasn’t a ZiPS factor
1:03
zips fiend: Is the NPB nonetheless considerably higher than the KBO, and are each higher than AAA/AA?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless get NPB as AAA1/2 and KBO as AA1/2
1:03
Natitude Adjuster: Have you ever ever messed round with together with school stats into ZiPS?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however there’s such extensive variance that I solely embody school stats once I MUST venture a participant and I’ve nothing else to go on
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mainly, ZiPS will use school translations, the place out there, any time there may be little to no skilled expertise
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however I received’t quote it until I HAVE to
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like I couldn’t get away with not projecting Crews
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as an official projection
1:05
Alex: If Zips turned sentient, wouldn’t it look fondly on you for creating it or wouldn’t it flip towards you for making it work so onerous?
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most of my family members additionally harbor a bent of being consistently irritated by me, so I feel it woudl have combined emotions too
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time fo rme to move out for one more week
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!

 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on numerous radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.



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