12:02 |
: And awaaaay we go!
|
12:02 |
: Do you assume the Padres have a shot of operating down the Dodgers? The offense is buzzing and that bullpen appears insanely filthy.
|
12:03 |
: A shot? Sure. But it surely’s an uphill combat. Dodgers are a wonderful group. The Padres have to not simply be actually good, they should have the Dodgers hit a few of their swingy harm danger of their high-end expertise
|
12:03 |
: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I feel I’d take the over on what the true mystical chance is that we will’t truly inform
|
12:03 |
: ZiPS appears to essentially like Danny Jansen to the Sox. Is it as a result of his swing is nicely suited to Fenway? Equally within the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full 12 months projection is with the Purple Sox now – is that this projecting him enjoying half his video games at Fenway?
|
12:04 |
: No, the positioning doesn’t reformulate the previous projections
|
12:04 |
: Soler moved the ZIPS postseason needle greater than I anticipated for the Braves. I do know that’s largely because of the sub substitute stage nook outfielders they’ve been operating out, however is it flawed to be skeptical of Soler when he has to get again to enjoying outfield?
|
12:04 |
: You’re not flawed to be skeptical. However I *did* venture Soler as a nook outfielder, which takes a success
|
12:04 |
: There’s danger, however Atlanta’s outfield is TERRIBLE this 12 months
|
12:05 |
: 0.7 mixed WAR. And that’s with Acuña’s slightly disappointing-for-him 1.1 WAR
|
12:05 |
: There’s been lots of dialogue this 12 months in regards to the DH and 1B penalties, and it appears more likely to be reevaluated at some kind of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you’ve an opinion on the positional changes as they at the moment stand/do
|
12:06 |
: I’ve been one pushing for an adjustment for a pair years. However we’re speaking a couple of runs right here and there. It’ll solely be an actual distinction over lengthy careers
|
12:06 |
: DH is one I’ve been pushing for since earlier than I even labored for FG!
|
12:06 |
: Like mgl, each manner I take a look at DH vs. 1B, there’s a small penalty from sitting in your ass that each DH has to face
|
12:07 |
: it’s like a extremely gentle model of the PH penalty
|
12:07 |
: I’m unsure if it’s truthful to say the Pirates have soured on Henry Davis, nevertheless between Endy Rodriguez returning and Joey Bart’s emergence wouldn’t it be truthful to say they could commerce him this offseason in a baseball commerce?
|
12:08 |
: It *coudl* occur for positive, however there’s not lots of commerce worth there. I feel the Pirates are nonetheless determining how every thing kinds out
|
12:08 |
: and I doubt the group is totally bought on Joey Bart turning his profession 180 after…fewer than 180 PA
|
12:08 |
: If you happen to had Michael King in fantasy, would you maintain as a result of he’s been superior or attempt to promote for a comparable asset as a result of he’s been superior and the variety of innings he’ll throw this 12 months scares you?
|
12:08 |
: It ALWAYS is determined by the commerce
|
12:09 |
: Each participant has a value you’d trad ethem at
|
12:09 |
: So far as Purple Sox prospects go, I feel Kristian Campbell has tackle the title of most polarizing now that Rafaela has graduated. What does ZiPS consider this 12 months within the minors this 12 months?
|
12:10 |
: ZiPS likes it very a lot! He’ll have a reasonably beefy projection subsequent 12 months for positive
|
12:10 |
: On their respective contracts, would you slightly have Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll?
|
12:11 |
: I feel Carroll, however it’s actually up for debate
|
12:11 |
: Carroll’s possible upside is arguably balanced by the additional 35 million or no matter
|
12:11 |
: Would the commerce deadline have been extra thrilling with out the third wildcard?
|
12:11 |
: In all probability not
|
12:11 |
: Anybody combating for a 3rd wildcard is probably going additionally combating for a second wildcard
|
12:11 |
: Hello Dan, Will Feddie and Pham thrive in St Louis or simply be common?
|
12:12 |
: I feel they’ll be effective, however unexciting
|
12:12 |
: What are the chances that Eloy stays wholesome and figures it out with the Orioles?
|
12:12 |
: Fairly low, I feel
|
12:12 |
: Suppose the O’s are simply taking a scratch-and-win
|
12:12 |
: Have you ever performed Eldin Ring?
|
12:12 |
: I truly haven’t gotten round to Elden Ring
|
12:13 |
: one of many issues is there are such a lot of issues to play and I’m a 46-year-old man with a full-time job so I can’t play everythign I would like
|
12:13 |
: As soon as he’s been in a position to reacclimate off the harm, ought to Dominguez be taking these Verdugo at bats?
|
12:13 |
: Ideally, I might
|
12:14 |
: Verdugo’s principally a stopgap starter. While you don’t have the hole to cease, he must be farther again within the fridge
|
12:14 |
: Cleveland provides up actual prospects for Lane Thomas and Atlanta provides up a non prospects and takes on some cash for higher manufacturing. /Jesse Pinkman he can’t preserve getting away with it gif for Alex Anthopoulos/
|
12:14 |
: The place have you ever been!?! (After I miss chats, I nonetheless blame you)
|
12:14 |
: I used to be away, then I had a nasty head/chest chilly, and a conflicting physician’s appointment
|
12:15 |
: Ben Rice NYY 1B of the longer term?
|
12:15 |
: Wouldn’t go THAT far
|
12:15 |
: Of the non Riley Greene Tiger place gamers who do you assume would be the most efficient subsequent season? Keith? Perez, Meadows? Perhaps Jung?
|
12:16 |
: ZiPS has it shut between Keith/Jung, although I’ll depart it within the air whether or not it’s as a result of ZiPS actually likes Keith/Jung or it’s actually sad about Tigers after Riley Greene
|
12:16 |
: ZiPS has Greene greater than two WAR forward of subsequent Tiger
|
12:16 |
: Hey Dan, what does ZiPS venture for changing Jordan Westburg with Ramon Urias? What in the event that they name up Coby Mayo on the finish of August?
|
12:17 |
: Can’t do a full season sim rapidly! It’s a loss although, and it in all probability shaves a pair factors off division possibilities and playoff prob
|
12:17 |
: ZiPS likes Mayo
|
12:17 |
: I’m unsure the O’s would truly do it, however I’d say “fuck it” and simply stick in Mayo because the starter
|
12:18 |
: The playoffs are nearly assured. Roll the cube on teh division as a result of Urias is meh as a starter
|
12:18 |
Do you assume Kopech will get any saves in LA? Do you assume G Holmes is a worthwhile NL 5×5 add? |
12:20 |
: Some, in all probability not, is determined by the dimensions of the league because you’ll solely get ERA/WHIP from him and never many innings
|
12:20 |
: I imply, strikeouts too, however not large counting
|
12:20 |
: Ought to the Astros have any type of innings restrict for Blanco, or simply understand that is in all probability the very best season he’ll have and milk it?
|
12:21 |
: Given his age and the closeness fo the race, I think about the Astros will use him extra like a veteran
|
12:21 |
: favourite tune off Nevermind?
|
12:21 |
: Come As You Are
|
12:22 |
: What’s one thing usually undervalued by most entrance workplaces that the nice entrance workplaces worth appropriately? Based mostly on current drafts by the Dodgers (my private gold customary) pace is changing into extra emphasised.
|
12:22 |
: Actually? Danger
|
12:23 |
: I feel the very best groups are those which have the very best understanding of danger, each good and badf
|
12:24 |
: Take a look at the Dodgers and the way they accumulate dangerous, fascinating pitching. They’re snug simply having a bunch of dudes who could also be wholesome, however who might have actually high-end efficiency, and keen to simply accept there may be a time that they roll poorly and there are too many accidents, and so they’ll should cope with it
|
12:24 |
: Any ideas / projections on Joey Wiemer after commerce to the Reds ? Outfield in dire want of upside. Thanks.
|
12:24 |
: I don’t assume he’s the droid you’re in search of
|
12:25 |
: Has anybody reviewed Dombrowski’s file of prospects he traded away?
|
12:25 |
: Perhaps? It’s not 1997, so I’m not acquainted with every thing analytical that’s been written
|
12:25 |
: What’s it like being a childless cat dude?
|
12:25 |
: Full nights of sleep and I preserve my revenue, however a better danger of stepping in chilly vomit at 3 AM
|
12:27 |
: What precisely was behind Chris Davis’s speedy decline?
|
12:27 |
: Terrible, terrible contact hitter and pitchers finally found out methods to get round him swinging out of his sneakers
|
12:28 |
: And attempting to treatment it, he didn’t have adequate palte self-discipline, and he obtained REALLY terrible at selecting to swing on the good pitches to hit
|
12:28 |
: How do I persuade fellow Guardians followers that remainder of season projections which have this group at .500 are cheap based mostly on a trash rotation and mid offense, and never the results of a anti-Cleveland cabal placing out biased projections?
|
12:28 |
: ZiPS truly stil likes the Guardians!
|
12:28 |
: But when that doesn’t persuade them, you in all probability can’t
|
12:29 |
: You’ll by no means persuade a cussed fan of something with a pc projection
|
12:29 |
: Jud Fabian a ZiPS high 100 prospect??
|
12:29 |
: Definitely not now
|
12:29 |
: Is Tampa going to make Dylan Carlson into the All Star that John Mozeliak was publicly fantasizing about 3 years in the past?
|
12:29 |
: They might? However in all probability not
|
12:29 |
: On the lookout for a great flan recipe
|
12:29 |
: I don’t actually do desserts
|
12:30 |
: Dan! What the heck are the Orioles doing? Eflin is a welcome addition, however their strikes within the outfield are head scratching, and with Westburg on the shelf the Holliday promotion doesn’t really feel as horny as I hoped it will…
|
12:30 |
: Eflin was, once more, an enormous eflin deal
|
12:30 |
: This White Sox factor…there’s zero cause for hope so long as Jerry Reinsdorf owns the group, proper?
|
12:30 |
: In all probability no hope
|
12:30 |
: is there a approach to estimate a participant’s twentieth/eightieth pctl ZiPS based mostly on their fiftieth?
|
12:31 |
: I imply, the typical of the 2 received’t be FAR off, however when do you’ve twentieth/eightieth and never the projection?
|
12:31 |
: It appears lots of groups are touchdown on comparable group constructing methods. The place would you search for a counter technique to probably stand out?
|
12:31 |
: I’m not truly positive you are able to do a counter technique
|
12:32 |
: The issue is a substantial amount of what wins baseball video games is “solved” particularly offense
|
12:32 |
: What it’s a must to do is reap the benefits of your particular state of affairs as finest you possibly can
|
12:33 |
: just like the Sox can’t make an elite offense differently than most elite offenses
|
12:33 |
: However they’ll take dangers that the great groups can’t
|
12:33 |
: Is ZiPS shopping for the Lawrence Butler breakout? Are you?
|
12:34 |
: ZiPS isn’t. I’m nonetheless on the fence
|
12:34 |
: Per your article this morning–which was nice, BTW–the O’s have the best probability of profitable the WS at the moment. Did I learn that proper??
|
12:34 |
: Sure, ZiPS already just like the Orioles rather a lot
|
12:34 |
: regardless of what Reddit thinks
|
12:34 |
: All of the playoff matchups obtained higher rotation-wise
|
12:34 |
: and this offers them a lift in division title likelihood, which is a HUGE deal
|
12:34 |
: the Cubs have gotten smarter, Matt Shaw will get to “work on his protection” in AA as an alternative of AAA to keep away from service time accusations
|
12:34 |
: heh
|
12:35 |
: In a case just like the Twins lack of trades do you place extra weight (blame) on possession slashing payroll or the entrance workplace not pulling the set off on making any influence trades?
|
12:35 |
: A variety of instances its an possession subject
|
12:35 |
: The Rockies can be lots higher with completely different possession or a change in possession involvement
|
12:36 |
: Who do you assume goes to be the most important mover in ZiPS projections this offseason? Jarren Duran?
|
12:36 |
: Durran is up there
|
12:36 |
: I did two articles on it!
|
12:36 |
: should you had been pressure rating GMs is Billy Schmidt 31?
|
12:37 |
: It’s onerous to charge GMs aside from the remainder of the group
|
12:37 |
: I’m fairly assured that Rockies possession had their hand in lots of disasters for the group, such because the Desmond/Bryant signings and the quiet commerce deadlines
|
12:37 |
: close to 100% on Bryant
|
12:38 |
: Did you see the Holliday grand slam dwell, Dan? I do know you’re an Orioles fan, simply curious should you obtained to take pleasure in it. With the struggles, that needed to really feel nice for him.
|
12:38 |
: Sadly, I missed it dwell
|
12:39 |
: I imply, I had it on, however I used to be engrossed in my ZiPS wrapup article
|
12:39 |
: and I had the sound on one thing else
|
12:40 |
: Relying on the timing, I both had a recording of Bruckner’s seventh or Yanks-Phils
|
12:40 |
: Does Witt have to finest Decide in Warfare by a good quantity to win MVP?
|
12:41 |
: I feel it relies upon simply the place Decide’s numbers find yourself
|
12:41 |
: If he hits 60 once more, hes’ going to be actually onerous to beat
|
12:41 |
: even with trendy baseball writers typically being higher at this
|
12:42 |
: Even in WAR it’s fairly shut and Decide has an edge on elements of WAR which can be extra SOLID. We all know offense fairly nicely. However issues like positional adjustment and even defensive efficiency are a bit extra summary.
|
12:42 |
: And I feel it an in depth race, the tie goes to the stable
|
12:44 |
: m toglia anticipated oba .348. if zips extra bullish on him lately?
|
12:44 |
: Mildly
|
12:45 |
: Does 85 wins take the AL West? Nobody appears to need it.
|
12:45 |
: ZiPS has the typical results of the eventual AL West winner as 86.7 wins
|
12:46 |
: Crochet killed his personal commerce market proper? No group’s gonna commerce for him with out understanding what sort of extension it will take to get him to pitch within the postseason.
|
12:46 |
: It added a complete bunch of danger for a pitcher who already had some danger
|
12:46 |
: Westburg harm hurts. You assume Mayo is getting known as up very quickly?
|
12:46 |
: .I’ve no particular information on this
|
12:46 |
: January 1, 2030. The place will the A’s be headquartered?
|
12:47 |
: In all probability Vegas. Ultimately, cities often cave and provides groups no matter they need, ultimately
|
12:47 |
: Thought it will be humorous in the event that they’re nonetheless enjoying in Sacramento
|
12:47 |
: I imply, not for A’s followers
|
12:47 |
: however Fisher can be sad, and that makes me glad
|
12:47 |
: What are Vaughn/Torkelson price going ahead. Does the Rooker Reclamation current a path ahead in salvaging their careers?
|
12:47 |
: Not a lot.
|
12:48 |
: And positive, there’s at all times a second or third likelihood, however even Rooker’s worth dropped to only about nothing at one piont
|
12:48 |
: What do you make of Jordan Walker (possible 2023 rookie of the 12 months !) not with the ability to put it collectively in AAA in 2024? Is that this frequent ? Or doesn’t appear frequent
|
12:48 |
: It’s uncommon, however not THAT unusual
|
12:49 |
: As an O’s fan, I’ve at all times felt the dagger of the Glen Davis commerce. Yeah, it was dangerous again then (particularly since Randy Milligan was the superior participant anyway), however who would have identified that the gamers they traded away can be THAT good (heck, a straight up Harnish-Davis commerce would have been a fleecing of the O’s, not to mention Finley and Schilling). What does ZiPS consider the commerce on the time?
|
12:49 |
: I haven’t run it, however I’m actually it will be fairly awful
|
12:50 |
: I’ve appeared on the gamers earlier than and whereas ZiPS was lukewarm on Finley, it preferred Harnisch and Schilling fairly a bit
|
12:51 |
: I identified it’s small pattern dimension, however are you anxious in any respect that father time has lastly caught as much as Kershaw?
|
12:51 |
: Hasn’t it kinda already?
|
12:51 |
: Till you get close to 40, pitchers break mor ethan they age
|
12:51 |
: and he’s kinda damaged lots
|
12:51 |
: About Henry Davis (and perhaps extra typically relevant): ought to I be saying “He can’t presumably be as dangerous as he’s appeared within the majors if he’s hitting this nicely in AAA” or ought to I be anxious that the rising hole between AAA and the majors means there can be extra guys who mash in AAA and by no means determine it out within the majors? Or one thing else?
|
12:52 |
: I’ve been tinkering with the info for Ben L. on the topic and I’m not truly discovering an rising hole. A few of it (although not on this case) seems to be individuals nonetheless haven’t absorbed how completely different the offensive environments are between AAA and MLB proper now
|
12:53 |
: If Miguel Vargas turns right into a 2 win participant, does that imply the Fedde commerce was stable?
|
12:53 |
: Perhaps? On a win foundation, in all probability, however the White Sox must be chasing ceilings, not reliable two-win guys
|
12:53 |
: Nicely as a catless youngster dude I can say you in all probability have much less likelihood of being hit with heat vomit at 3 AM
|
12:53 |
: Dan I can’t bear in mind should you had been somebody that ever tweeted about Magic The Gathering or not, in that case have you ever been enjoying Bloomburrow? Greatest set in years.
|
12:53 |
: I haven’t actually performed Magic for the reason that 90s
|
12:54 |
: How usually do 3 12 months projections of ZiPS get refreshed?
|
12:54 |
: Those on FG, simply in the beginning of the season. I’ve been contemplating rerolling them on the ASB subsequent 12 months
|
12:54 |
: the 20/80 based mostly on 50, not 50 based mostly on 20/80, Dan ; )
|
12:54 |
: Oh geez
|
12:54 |
: yeah, I don’t assume you may get 20/80 from 50
|
12:54 |
: I will need to have learn the query flawed
|
12:54 |
: Do you assume the MLBPA ought to push within the subsequent CBA not a cap flooring or ceiling, however a minimal customary of participant services? Studying tales about how the A’s and Pirates and so on skimp on stuff like coaching rooms and vitamin and all that, maybe that may be a great win to get.
|
12:54 |
: It could be good, however they have a tendency to concentrate on probably the most bang for the buck when it comes to time
|
12:55 |
: I truthfully don’t assume the MLBPA is in a fantastic bargaining place
|
12:55 |
: One of many issues that has at all times helped the MLBPA traditionally is house owners being useless and undisciplined
|
12:57 |
: However the house owners have a built-in benefit: lots of them can wait it out a *lot* longer than a 23-year-old prospect
|
12:57 |
: No pitch clock within the ninth inning- what say you?
|
12:57 |
: Nah
|
12:57 |
: I don’t like guidelines that change
|
12:57 |
: Heard Thunder Kiss ‘65 for the primary time this week modified my world. Any unheard tune equally change your world?
|
12:57 |
: Actually, not that I can consider
|
12:57 |
: How usually do you watch video games?
|
12:58 |
: Any time there’s a sport on, there’s a sport on
|
12:58 |
: Any likelihood we will get an replace on the chances of the White Sox breaking the loss file?
|
12:58 |
: I truly posted it final evening on Twitter!
|
12:58 |
: or this morning
|
12:58 |
: hmm
|
12:58 |
: cling on
|
12:59 |
: What’s extra shocking? The AL Central being extra aggressive than anticipated or the AL West being worse than anticipated?
|
12:59 |
: AL West in all probability
|
12:59 |
: If you happen to had been to reply truthfully, can we really feel like several projection methods actually may give an correct view on what to anticipate out of Aaron Decide over the following 5 years? It simply seems like there are so few 6’7, 295 pound people on the market, a lot much less elite baseball gamers who put up profession years at 32 when most others are declining. You would inform me he might flip into an injured pumpkin subsequent 12 months or might be doing this 5 years from now and each appear possible.
|
12:59 |
: I’m unsure Decide is *notably* troublesome to venture exterior of well being
|
12:59 |
: we’ll see in 2029! lol
|
1:00 |
: It could be enjoyable to run an evaluation on historic ZIPs verdicts on among the most perceived (on the time) lopsided trades and see which of them netted out lopsided in the long term
|
1:00 |
: I do particular person trades from time to time. I feel I did one thing on ESPN some years in the past that was a ridiculous quantity of hours for a single piece
|
1:03 |
: I did do the worst trades of teh free company period in 2012, however it wasn’t a ZiPS factor
|
1:03 |
: Is the NPB nonetheless considerably higher than the KBO, and are each higher than AAA/AA?
|
1:03 |
: I nonetheless get NPB as AAA1/2 and KBO as AA1/2
|
1:03 |
: Have you ever ever messed round with together with school stats into ZiPS?
|
1:03 |
: Yeah, however there’s such extensive variance that I solely embody school stats once I MUST venture a participant and I’ve nothing else to go on
|
1:04 |
: Mainly, ZiPS will use school translations, the place out there, any time there may be little to no skilled expertise
|
1:04 |
: however I received’t quote it until I HAVE to
|
1:04 |
: Like I couldn’t get away with not projecting Crews
|
1:04 |
: as an official projection
|
1:05 |
: If Zips turned sentient, wouldn’t it look fondly on you for creating it or wouldn’t it flip towards you for making it work so onerous?
|
1:05 |
: Most of my family members additionally harbor a bent of being consistently irritated by me, so I feel it woudl have combined emotions too
|
1:06 |
: On that word, it’s time fo rme to move out for one more week
|
1:06 |
: Thanks for coming all!
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on numerous radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.