Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’m just a little behind as we speak as I end up some previous work and get began on an article for tomorrow, becuase I’ve the break day however wish to get some content material out

Ben Clemens: So as we speak’s chat goes to be extra of the one hour selection than the 2 hour, let’s go fully nuts model

Ben Clemens: Let’s simply get proper into it

Don: Any hope in a revival for Brennen Davis, or is that this only a highly regarded streak that almost all gamers have sooner or later yearly?

Ben Clemens: I t hink the more than likely end result is simply that it’s a highly regarded streak however I hope I’m fallacious

Machado: Final yr, you talked about some statcast stats of Manny Machado’s that involved you. Are those self same points underlying his present stuggles?

Ben Clemens: Sure and no, which I’m conscious is a copout reply

Ben Clemens: I really feel like he’s getting unfortunate this yr, and that his underlying high quality is nearer to final yr

Ben Clemens: I believe he’s going to bounce again some from this yr’s lackluster numbers, for certain

Ben Clemens: however general yeah, I’m nonetheless just a little involved. It simply doesn’t really feel like he can preserve producing elite batting numbers with no little bit extra harm on contact

Ben Clemens: he’s simply not ever going to be a excessive babip or excessive stroll price man, it’s not his factor

deBride: Since 2017 the Rockies have a 5.05 ERA vs a 4.65 FIP, the worst hole in MLB by 0.15 runs. Over that very same time the Dodgers have a 3.32 ERA vs a 3.71 FIP, the perfect hole in MLB by 0.18 runs. Each groups are on islands of their very own. I do know greater than stadium and protection go into beating (or not beating) one’s FIP, however have the Dodgers primarily created a reverse Coors through some mixture of recreation planning/positioning/protection/and so forth over their final 1,082 video games and counting ??

Ben Clemens: That’s undoubtedly a method you could possibly give it some thought

Ben Clemens: Coors is certainly a spot that can mess with FIP, BABIP is simply so excessive there given the dimensions of the outfield

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers take away hits on balls in play like Coors’s large outfield provides hits on balls in play

bringbackpologrounds: Dodgers shifting Betts to SS and the Yankees shifting Choose to CF jogs my memory of the Tigers shifting Cabrera to 3B in 2012. Do you suppose that experiment labored for the Tigers? How do you see it working for the Dodgers and Yankees down the highway?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose that one labored out for the Tigers, although I fully perceive why they tried it

Ben Clemens: I believe that these two are a bit completely different in that each Betts and Choose have been plus defenders in proper discipline, so it’s a matter of making an attempt to maneuver your good defender as much as a more durable spot and see how they stick

Ben Clemens: clearly RF->SS is wild

Ben Clemens: however the concept is simply categorically completely different than taking a man everybody thought was 1b solely and throwing him at third

Ben Clemens: I believe that for the Dodgers, they’ll slide Betts again to both second or proper when their workforce building finally ends up a bit extra regular in a yr or so

Ben Clemens: and I believe that the Yankees are going to finish up parking Choose in a nook as he ages, it’s simply simpler on his physique

Skenes: Seems to be just like the hype may be deserved, no?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I used to be an excessive amount of of a skeptic right here

Ben Clemens: I imply, I suppose we’ll must see extra

Ben Clemens: however I’ve been very impressed by his first two begins, I used to be telling folks to attend and see and uh, it seems like we waited and noticed

99: At this level, what are the probabilities that Jordan Walker performs good baseball for the Playing cards this yr?  One other workforce?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s about 0% on each sadly

Ben Clemens: I imply, they’re not buying and selling him

Ben Clemens: If something they’re gonna be promoting

Ben Clemens: In the meantime, I don’t suppose you possibly can convey him up on condition that Oli doesn’t wish to play him

Ben Clemens: he was getting buried in favor of EVERYBODY when he was up, and was not hitting properly

Ben Clemens: I don’t see how you are able to do that once more with out understanding that one thing might be completely different

Ben Clemens: notably on the PT entrance. It simply shouldn’t be good enterprise to name up your high offensive prospect after which pinch hit for him on a regular basis

Ben Clemens: and use him as a weak aspect platoon DH

Logan Davis: The membership of bat velocity leaders — Stanton, Choose, Soto et. al — is a bunch of men with large energy, after which Julio, who’s rocking a .059 ISO. What the heck? Is it even potential to have a slugging proportion this low whenever you swing this tough? Or is that this simply undoubtedly gonna kind itself out?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s simply gonna kind itself out

Ben Clemens: I don’t see something in his numbers that tells me nope, he’s damaged

Ben Clemens: and he’s proven the flexibility to regulate earlier than

Ben Clemens: so I believe that’s simply nonetheless the good guess

Sooooo: Shota is having a greater Might than April!

Ben Clemens: Actually superb

Archer: Wenceel Perez: flash within the pan or a sustainable shock?

Ben Clemens: sensible, thought-about reply: it’s too quickly to inform and I haven’t finished sufficient of a deep dive into his numbers to have a powerful view both method

Ben Clemens: sizzling take: I picked him up in fantasy and am operating him on the market each day till confirmed fallacious

birds birds birds: Is there analysis exhibiting whether or not a six man rotation helps/hurts the starters concerned?

Ben Clemens: There’s not, at the very least not nice well-balanced reserach

Ben Clemens: nonetheless, I did write this:

Ben Clemens: The general level, nonetheless, is that further days of relaxation appear to have a small however useful impact on pitchers’ outcomes. For every further day of relaxation, their xFIP improves, relative to their seasonal common, by roughly 0.06.

Sodo mojo: Is it time for the mariners to maneuver on from Ty France and is somebody like Connor Joe a reaonable goal

Ben Clemens: I…. I don’t suppose so?

Ben Clemens: transfer on from Ty France, yeah, I suppose I can see that if they’d good options. I nonetheless suppose he’s a plus bat however with primarily zero defensive worth, he’s not THAT helpful

Ben Clemens: however like, Connor Joe hasn’t appeared that nice this yr? Not hitting the ball notably exhausting, no apparent new expertise, it looks like he’s simply cashing in a ton of doubles on weak contact

Ben Clemens: I’d take France to outperform Joe straight up the remainder of the way in which this yr, and that’s earlier than figuring in the associated fee to swap them

deck: My assumption is that pitchers like Bob Gibson or Don Drysdale might throw 300 innings as a result of they’d the sense to not go at 100% on a regular basis.  You don’t must pitch Dal Maxville such as you would pitch to Willie Mays.  Broaden by at the very least ten groups and take away the DH.  They might thereby convey again to defensive specialists who can’t hit, together with pitchers batting, and the starter might return to baseball.  There’s my unsolicited opinion.

Ben Clemens: I do suppose that growth would most likely assist a number of issues baseball is going through

Ben Clemens: the bizarre paradox that there are too many good pitchers, which makes it really feel like there are’nt sufficient good pitchers, might be solved by simply having extra groups to fill

Ben Clemens: Like, everybody nowadays complains about how one can by no means have sufficient pitching

Ben Clemens: and but, run scoring simply goes down and down and down

Ben Clemens: certain looks like we’ve got sufficient good pitching!

bosoxforlife: Do you suppose there’s a stage the place the persevering with drop in offense causes the sport to behave.? A league common of .240 and 20+ strikeouts per recreation is starting to put on me down..

Ben Clemens: Sure. I believe we’ve handed that time, and that the league goes to proceed to attempt to act

Ben Clemens: They’re making an attempt. They banned shifts. They added the pitch clock. They’ve messed with in-game pitching adjustments. They regulated sticky stuff extra harshly

Ben Clemens: They should provide you with higher options, however I believe it’s honest to say that they’re making an attempt

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Would you contemplate pitcher’s inducing IFFBs a ability or is that one thing you’ll count on to stabilize towards league averages over the course of a yr? Desirous about it when it comes to Hunter Greene who has a 23.9% IFFB price.

Ben Clemens: Is his fairly excessive? yeah

Ben Clemens: however there’s actual ability on this on the pitcher aspect

Ben Clemens: the way in which I consider it’s this: pitchers exsert a number of management on whether or not a batter hits the ball

Ben Clemens: hitters exert a number of management on how exhausting they hit the ball

Ben Clemens: either side exert affect on launch angle

Ben Clemens: right here’s a research I did on pop up price:

Ben Clemens: IFFB% is much less straightforward to regulate

Ben Clemens: b/c that’s already IFFB per fly ball, and pitchers exsert extra management on fly balls, not what kind of fly balls

Ben Clemens: however when you’re taking a look at a pitcher who acquired a number of pop ups general one yr, they most likely will in yr two as properly

Matos vs Ramos: Hello Ben, do you want Matos extra or Ramos ROS to say with the workforce and assuming your league values OPS, which might you lean in direction of?

Ben Clemens: I like Matos extra for enjoying time causes. With JHL out for the season, there’s a better path to enjoying time in middle. I suppose Yaz can slide over typically, however there’s simply going to be extra competitors for nook outfield PA’s

Farhandrew Zaidman: There’s nothing you possibly can inform me that can persuade me Bobby Miller and Max Muncy weren’t each phantom ILs. One for innings functions, the opposite for roster crunch functions. Groups are undoubtedly nonetheless doing it, proper?

Ben Clemens: why would they not?

Ben Clemens: I’ll be just a little charitable and say that it’s extra like accidents which can be actual however play-through-able are resulting in IL stints extra continuously

Princess Leia: Does Andres Gimenez have some upside in his profile? Or is that this simply his finest case state of affairs proper right here? He’s been strong in my 10 workforce factors league, however I preserve making an attempt to improve and failing.

Ben Clemens: I believe he has just a little extra in his bat

Ben Clemens: not quite a bit, but when he simply will get again to final yr’s energy numbers there’s one thing there

Ben Clemens: That’s kinda the promise with him; his ground is actually excessive b/c he has nice contact expertise, so if he catches a BABIP or energy heater he can have a fantastic yr

SandyIsTheGreatest: Ought to the Dodgers commerce Clayton Kershaw is he comes again and is wholesome? They’ve sufficient pitching and Robert’s is doing his finest work as supervisor.

Ben Clemens: Haha, it is a humorous query however no

Ben Clemens: Like, in the true world they clearly aren’t

Ben Clemens: however in an ideal world the place you possibly can ignore that he’s Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, properly, then you possibly can ignore that Dave Roberts has a psychological block round managing Kershaw

Ben Clemens: They’ve sufficient pitching for now, however they simply won’t in a month

C-Low: It feels to me like Henderson ought to bat second and Rutschman first. Not an enormous obp and immense energy however retains hitting solo house runs. Am I on to one thing or would you retain as is?

Ben Clemens: I believe the distinction between the 2 choices is sufficiently small that I’d do no matter makes the gamers happiest

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

dave: I’m assuming MLB groups have had entry to the just lately made public swing metrics for years. Do you suppose these metrics are a part of the rationale veterans aren’t getting as many gives because it appears these metrics can extra rapidly establish gamers who’re getting older out of their prime?

Not AJ Preller: Hypothetical state of affairs: You’re Ben Cherington, and Mike Elias calls you providing Jackson Holliday for one in all Paul Skenes or Jared Jones. Do you do it? Massive issues taking place in Pittsburgh, however they don’t actually appear on the cusp of greatness simply but and the pitching prospect demographic clearly scarier than place participant! Additionally, equally enjoyable to think about a type of two guys pitching deep right into a playoff run as quickly as this yr

Ben Clemens: If I’m Cherington, I’d grit my tooth and do it

Ben Clemens: It’s simply due to the demographic danger, such as you mentioned

Ben Clemens: proper now Jones and Skenes are clearly extra impactful than Holliday

Ben Clemens: however I just like the long-term danger/reward skew on place gamers higher

Ben Clemens: that’s why our prospect rankings skew in direction of hitters too, to be clear

Adam: Do you suppose the Blue Jays are already sure to be sellers this yr? Who would they even transfer?

Ben Clemens: Already sure? No. However I believe that they’re a sluggish month away from being very attention-grabbing sellers

Ben Clemens: they’ve some pitching with two ish years of management that I believe folks could be eager about: Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi

Ben Clemens: Danny Jansen would fetch a pleasant haul

Ben Clemens: I believe they’re unlikely to maneuver Bichette, clearly folks would have an interest however at a low-ball price given his tough begin to the season

Chooch: Are you shopping for the enhancements on the plate bohm and stott have proven this season? Not saying they’ll proceed to hit at this similar stage, however have you ever seen sufficient to count on they’re improved hitters shifting ahead?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t finished THAT a lot work on them however from what I’ve finished, I’m increased on Bohm and unchanged on Stott

Ben Clemens: Stott simply appears to be on a sizzling streak as finest as I can inform, whereas Bohm has made some good adjustments

Harry: Do you suppose Kikuchi’s numbers are sustainable? He appears reinvented.

Ben Clemens: at these ranges, no. at improved ranges, sure

Smiling Politely: Does Ohtani face a steeper climb for MVP votes as a DH (unbiased of WAR)?

Ben Clemens: I’d say sure if it weren’t Ohtani

Ben Clemens: however he’s so well-known that I believe it overwhelms the DH penalty

Boof Bonser: To your personal private enjoyment, as a Bay Space baseball observer, which of Ramos/Matos/Luciano would you wish to pan out most?

Ben Clemens: Oof, that is powerful b/c I actually like watching Lee play however Matos could be my pick of that trio if I didn’t contemplate place

Ben Clemens: I suppose I’ll say Luciano b/c I’m uninterested in the Giants shuffling by meh shortstops

SH, Jr.: Does the sport truly endure meaningfully if accidents and optimization morph the normal SP function right into a longer-long reliever? Naturally participant comp should evolve however what’s the aesthetic hurt to baseball, actually, of each recreation being a bullpen recreation?

Ben Clemens: I imply, aesthetic arguments are essentially subjective

Ben Clemens: however after I ask my non-baseball-fan pals, or semi-attached-fan pals, what they dislike about baseball

Ben Clemens: it’s that after they activate the sport, there’s likelihood that the pitcher is somebody random they don’t care about

Ben Clemens: it’s not the ONLY factor but it surely’s simply up there

BrewCrew: Since his days with the Braves, what has modified about William Contreras? His Atlanta numbers appeared to recommend a catcher with good energy, OK hit device, and OK defensive chops – the sort of man you give as much as get Sean Murphy. Whereas we all know what the Brewers do with catchers defensively, his hit device has appeared completely elite over the previous yr plus — and by some means this was both simply flat out missed by evaluators or has developed in a significant method over that point

Ben Clemens: I believe developed, however simply so we’re clear, his wRC+ as a Brewer is decrease than it was in 2022 on the Braves

Ben Clemens: yeah the defensive worth, that appears very a lot to be a Brewers factor

Ben Clemens: however like, he was a GREAT hitter in 2022, and worse than that in ’23. He’s on a heater to begin 2024. I nonetheless wouldn’t mission him for higher than a 130 wrC+ going ahead I don’t suppose (ZiPS and Steamer are round 135 for wh at it’s price)

Ralphie: RE: Shota, how a lot do you suppose was misevaluation by the league and the way a lot is his profile completely different given HRs are down

Ben Clemens: Effectively, I assumed that he was the discount signing of the offseason earlier than the yr began

Ben Clemens: so I undoubtedly suppose that there was some league misevaluation/sliding doorways state of affairs occurring right here

Ben Clemens: like, loads of groups who acquired completely different pitchers would have been in on Imanaga in the event that they knew what he’d signal for, however they went in numerous instructions

Ben Clemens: however sure, his profile had one apparent weak spot, homers

Ben Clemens: flip the homer knob down, and properly, he simply seems nice

André René Roussimoff: How a lot of the large strikeout spike of latest years is launch angle and attempting to find HRs and the way a lot of it’s pitchers simply being superior? I do know it’s not straightforward to quantify, however which is extra accountable?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s extra pitching, notably since I believe a number of hitters’ conduct has been influenced by the truth that pitchers are so exhausting to hit now that you simply higher be making it rely whenever you do make contact

Rob Manfred: Hello Ben, who would you relatively have ROS in an OPS league..Andy Pages or Davis Schneider?

Yankeesfan: What do the Yankees do when Cole comes again?go 6 deep on the rotation? Boot nasty Nestor to the pen?

Ben Clemens: I believe they’ll go to a six man rotation for some time

Ben Clemens: After which bump whoever is doing the worst on the finish of that to the rotation?

Ben Clemens: I suppose that’s Nestor proper now however my moeny could be on Schmidt, I simply can’t fairly purchase him as a constant starter nonetheless

Weekend Hack: what makes ty france a plus bat

Ben Clemens: his 4 consecutive years of better-than-average offense and profession 115 wRC+

Ben Clemens: now, might he have gotten method worse over the winter and simply be unhealthy now? completely

Ben Clemens: however uh, that

Idiotic Failson: Would you give Gleyber the QO, and do you suppose he ought to take it?

Ben Clemens: I’d, and I don’t suppose he ought to

Visitor?!: Will we come to view pitcher accidents in MLB the identical method the NFL needed to cope with concussions?

Ben Clemens: one is a LOT worse for you long run

Okra: Corbin Carroll has hit a ton of IFFB this season (15 vs 19 all final yr) which most likely explains his drop in EV.  Aside that and a few unhealthy luck I don’t see a lot to elucidate his struggles.  Do you suppose he turns it round?

Ben Clemens: Okay, uncommon Ben sizzling take alert

Ben Clemens: I believe that 2023 will both be Carroll’s finest or second finest season

Ben Clemens: I believe he’s a LOT higher than what he’s finished to this point in 2024, after all

Ben Clemens: however I’m frightened of his shoulder exploding

Ben Clemens: and I sort of suppose he’s too

Matt Damon: BEEN.  SICK.

Ben Clemens: Sorry to listen to that, pal. I’m glad you’re again

KC Ache: Do you suppose groups are deluding themselves into fixing weaknesses in offense or know and simply say “it would get higher”?  Mariners, Tigers, on offense, Rangers for pitching for example (mentioning groups who might compete)

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s nearer to ‘know and suppose it would get higher” usually

Ben Clemens: or alternatively, know and don’t actually have a number of choices to sort things

Ben Clemens: so they should wait, see what adjustments, after which do some deadline offers

bosoxforlife: You agree that the sport is making an attempt to convey again extra offense however the 800 lb. gorilla is the gap between the mound and residential plate. As pitchers proceed to get larger and throw sooner the 60’6″ distance, which was final modified in 1893, has turn into out of date. Is it so sacrosanct that it can’t be modified?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose so. I do suppose that it took the wind out of that plan’s sails a bit after they tried it within the Atlantic League and strikeout price didn’t change

Ben Clemens: breaking balls grew to become even more durable to hit

Ben Clemens: I really feel like sooner or later that can give, like every little thing else provides

Ben Clemens: possibly they’ll decrease the mound once more too

Ben Clemens: however I believe that it’s affordable to be just a little bit extra hesitant to alter the mound distance when it’s not even clear how properly it would work

Ben Clemens: greater than every other resolution they’ve thought-about to alter the offensive setting, that one has unpredictable results

Farhandrew Zaidman: Has any participant misplaced extra floor within the “Commerce Worth” Sequence over the previous few years than Vladito? Went from consensus high 10 to uhhh…an “overrated” R/R 1B (I say with love and respect to his 2021 season)

Ben Clemens: Byron Buxton, possibly?

Ben Clemens: when he first signed his present contract and was nonetheless mashing and enjoying middle on the similar time, I had him fairly excessive

Ben Clemens: then after all, Wander Franco, ugh

Princess Leia: Story time… a very long time in the past, in a galaxy far, distant… younger Princess Leia noticed Luis Gil carving in spring coaching and determined to nab him for the again of the rotation.  She instructed her finest bud that Gil was legit, and that he deserved to be on their workforce too…

then Princess Leia watched Gil stroll 7, and minimize him for some taste of the week. Now Princess Leia is unhappy each time Gil offers Ok’s for days…

Ben Clemens: Brutal. I minimize Sevy for comparable causes 🙁

Chat Laggard: What kind of return might Stl get on Helsey and Kittredge? Pipe dream hopes of packaging them and possibly a mid pitching prospect for Mayo.

Ben Clemens: Rather a lot for Helsley, not a ton for Kittredge

Ben Clemens: Like, groups would add a Kittredge kind to their bullpen for certain, however he’s a rental and never a better

Ben Clemens: not even actually an incredible setup man, when you’ve got him as your second-best reliever you’re most likely unhappy

Ben Clemens: whereas Helsley has been elite for 3 straight years and is round subsequent yr too

Visitor: Is it simply me or does the Yankees early season success appear a bit unsustainable ? Particularly the pitching is method outperforming FIP

Irrational Exuberance: Re the Yankees rotation query: how good even is that rotation? Floor numbers are good, however everybody besides Nestor is outpitching their FIP by quite a bit (4 of the highest 22 ERA-FIP overperformers in baseball)

Ben Clemens: I imply, they’re not this good, no

Ben Clemens: however they do appear good!

Ben Clemens: I’m rather less clear on Stroman, the walks are wild

Ben Clemens: however Rodon, I’d consider nearer to his ERA than his FIP

Ben Clemens: largely b/c he was simply so unhealthy beginning out

Ben Clemens: and it seems that he’s beginning to dial his strikeout stuff again in

Yankees SP: kinda awkward that Schmidt, Gil, and Cortes all look higher peripherally than Rodon and Stroman this yr, as they’re not gonna bench the cash guys

Ben Clemens: I imply, I disagree on Rodon however agree on Stroman. and the stats aren’t the tip all be all both

Ben Clemens: I do suppose that Stroman offers helpful uncooked innings, although

Ben Clemens: like, the Yankees most likely must be going to a six man rotation for at the very least some time when Cole comes again and Stroman is honestly superb at availability

Ryan: Is Jordan Hicks’ success sustainable? His velo was down yesterday however I heard that was as a result of he was sick. Even when the sinker was within the low 90s, he was fairly efficient

Ben Clemens: Yeah he was sick apparently

Ben Clemens: Jordan Hicks sitting 90-91 is fairly unusual, that’s for certain

Ben Clemens: I believe that his success is sustainable, I can’t consider that I’ms aying that however I’ve purchased in. I believe he’s extra mid rotation starter than ace, however that’s an outstanding end result

Ben Clemens: alright, I’ve gotta run and get to taking a look at Edwin Diaz’s struggles (unhappy!). Have a beautiful week everybody. The chat might be off subsequent week for memorial day, however I’ll converse to you all in a number of