Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/13/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and thanks for stopping by at present’s chat. It’s a snow day right here in Brooklyn, with about 8″ of complete snowfall within the metropolis however a whole lot of it already melting. I’m contemporary off having constructed our first yard snowman with my daughter.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, it’s been a couple of weeks since I did one in all these, so on with the present…

Not an enormous fan: Hello Jay, I’m usually not an enormous fan of your stuff, however simply wished to say thanks for taking the time to speak!

Jay Jaffe: Gosh, thanks for that. I’m usually not an enormous fan of people that take the time to say that they’re not big followers of me (or any of my colleagues), so, uh, have a pleasant day I assume.

Sanford: How would you fee your snow shoveling abilities on a 20-80 scale?

Jay Jaffe: oh, i’m in all probability fringe-average at this level, possibly a forty five. My proper shoulder has by no means been the identical since my 2003 labrum tear, and because of an ongoing battle with impingement it is perhaps weaker than the left. I can nonetheless handle okay so long as there’s ibuprofen shut at hand.

Richard: Brian Kenny on MLB Community not too long ago named Vern Stephens the #1 most missed shortstop by the HOF. Do you agree and does he have any probability of election within the foreseeable future?

Jay Jaffe: Stephens was an eight-time All-Star who hit 286/.355/.460 (119 OPS+) for his profession, which ran from 1941-55. He had good thump for a shortstop, slugging 247 profession homers, and he was about common defensively. He’s simply thirty second in JAWS, although (46.3/34.4/40.3), and I can suppose of some shortstops I’d somewhat see within the Corridor.Tenth-ranked Invoice Dahlen is my prime choose, and Twentieth-ranked Bert Campaneris (53.1/36.7/44.9) was a key participant throughout the A’s Seventies dynasty. Even Nomar Garciaparra (44.3/43.1/43.7, twenty fourth) has a stronger case.

I can see Stephens possibly getting on the Basic Baseball Period Committee poll sooner or later, however it will likely be as ballast whereas the eye will probably be paid to stronger candidates.

Richard: In addition to Dick Allen, what names do you count on (not essentially hope) to see on the Basic Period poll this fall? I’m notably inquisitive about Curt Flood and Buzzie Bavasi.

Jay Jaffe: It might actually be fascinating to see Flood on the poll. He by no means bought the time of day when put earlier than the ignorati on the expanded Veterans Committee ballots (14 out of 82 votes in a type of years and equally in others), in all probability as a result of they have been considering extra in regards to the limitation of his statistics than the righteousness of his sacrifice in his problem of the reserve clause. Bavasi could be a great candidate, Dahlen too (although he hasn’t fared properly previously and is perhaps rotated out). My actual curiosity is in seeing extra Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball gamers, managers, and execs acknowledged. Vic Harris, John Beckwith, and John Donaldson come to thoughts.

Tyler: Hello Jay, I requested Dan Szymborski this query a pair months again and he mentioned he wasn’t fully certain the way to reply it. I’ve completed a whole lot of studying/learning up on analytics for in all probability 10-12 years now and I feel I’ve an honest grasp on what the numbers imply, however I couldn’t inform somebody WHY they imply what they imply. In different phrases, I don’t perceive the maths that goes into the numbers. So that is my query, how vital is it to have the ability to clarify the nuts and bolts of the maths that goes into analytics? I’ve wished to start out a baseball weblog and/or podcast for some time, however I’m actually hesitant due to my lack of expertise on this space. In your view, is having this understanding a pre-requisite to have the ability to cite them in a weblog or podcast? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: Should you look laborious sufficient throughout the FanGraphs glossary, the center of Baseball Reference, and even MLB.com for Statcast, you will discover a whole lot of the maths, however for probably the most half the actual significance is in understanding the ideas and the why, somewhat than in re-creating the numbers your self. Should you’re sufficient, although, you may attain out to individuals who do know the way the maths works they usually can level you in the precise course.

the one that asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: I had leftovers of this stovetop mac and cheese with sausage (hen, this time) and kale. https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1023269-cheesy-stovetop-mac-with-s…

This recipe has shortly grow to be a favourite in our family, because it’s a one-pot that has greens inside it as properly, they usually’re inobtrusive sufficient. That is notably nice with a couple of dashes of sizzling sauce (I used Cholula however others will work wonderful).

Eddie rosario: The place do I signal?

Jay Jaffe: The Padres have plenty of enjoying time obtainable and rank final on our depth charts in LF (Profar et al). The Marlins are twenty ninth there, and you would match right into a platoon with Bryan De La Cruz

Jacksonian Query: Who’s the MVJ (Most Useful Jackson) by the tip of the 12 months? Chourio, Merrill, Holliday, or Jobe?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go along with Jackson Holliday, whom I feel will get probably the most enjoying time of the bunch.

Curiously, the Padres are going to check out Merrill within the outfield; he performed 5 video games in LF at El Paso final 12 months, and he’s not  an actual risk to supplant Machado, Bogaerts, or Kim along with his protection.

Reds?: The Reds rebuild hasn’t labored as deliberate. Time to name it a day and begin a brand new rebuild?

Jay Jaffe: What? The Reds are bursting on the seams with younger expertise. I’m not saying I’ve the boldness in them to tug it off, however they’re not able to surrender proper now.

Invoice on da Shore: I’ll get proper to it. Jackson Holliday – does he begin the 12 months with Baltimore or AAA Norfolk?

Jay Jaffe: Neither Rutschman nor Henderson began the 12 months with the large membership, and Holliday has simply 19 video games at Triple-A, so I’m going to guess that he begins the season in Norfolk.

Visitor: Do you suppose Masataka Yoshida develops this offseason with the Pink Sox coaching workers and turns into a extra elite defender/hitter in Fenway, or can we count on comparable outcomes to this season for him? Does he play anyplace apart from LF persistently?

Ben: Interested by future HoF ballots, why is it that Jason Kendall acquired solely 2 votes whereas Yadier is anticipated to simply make it in (regardless of Kendall edging Yadier in JAWs)?

Jay Jaffe: Kendall completed his profession with a 95 OPS+, zero Gold Gloves, and framing stats that have been fairly awful. Not an enormous thriller.

Should you’re utilizing JAWS to measure catchers who’ve framing information, you’re not getting anyplace near a real image.

Chris: What % do you suppose Felix hernandez will get? Will he get the Johan Santana bump of individuals regretting letting him fall off the poll?

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’ll break double digits and stick across the poll, much less due to post-Santana remorse than as a result of guys like Buehrle and Pettitte, who didn’t have his peak, have completed so.

Bear in mind, a major contributor to Santana falling off the poll was as a result of it was so crowded that it was very troublesome to make the case he was one of many prime 10 candidates. It’s not as crowded for Félix, although it’s crowded and persons are extra conscious of the scarcity of beginning pitcher candidates as of late.

Waino: How will I do after I debut on the poll in 2029? Do I break 5%? Pettitte/Buehrle purgatory? Any probability of induction?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely Pettitte/Buehrle territory, and I feel that’s about the place you belong.

Visitor: Hello Jay – do you suppose the Yankees have one other transfer to make? Would a pillow contract for one of many prime FAs nonetheless on the market make sense in any respect? I do know they’re up in opposition to it with the posh tax and all…

Jay Jaffe: Matt Chapman will surely make some sense given the LeMahieu/Peraza plan at third base, however on condition that they’re already on the fourth tier, luxurious tax-wise, I’d be very skeptical they make any type of affect transfer.

Visitor: What is going to it take so that you can choose the Reds as NL Central favorites popping out of ST?

Jay Jaffe: the NL Central appears to be like fairly tight; we’ve got the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds projected inside 4 wins of one another (80-84). I count on the Cubs will enhance their odds by signing Bellinger ultimately, however a few accidents right here and there would possibly make the Reds seem like an interesting choose.

Padres Fan: The Padres might want to depend on Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Graham Pauley to some extent for left handed manufacturing this season. Who do you’re feeling has the perfect probability to succeed this season out of the group?

Jay Jaffe: Merrill, who has by far the very best upside of the three

Visitor: I spent the winter of 2022 obsessing in regards to the particulars of the CBA and interesting in righteous anger over the plight of gamers and minor leaguers. Now that we’re two years in, how are you feeling in regards to the new mechanisms that the gamers bargained for? are groups altering their spendings? are younger gamers getting more cash?

Jay Jaffe: Whereas the CBT thresholds are in all probability curbing spending to some extent, I feel for probably the most half the mechanisms designed to assist younger gamers get more cash are working. We’re seeing some prime prospects break camp within the majors and their groups benefiting as properly. The Mariners (Julio), Dbacks (Carroll), and Orioles (Gunnar) earned their groups comp picks through the Prospect Promotion Initiative, and gamers have earned respectable chunks of cash through the pre-arb bonus swimming pools.

Visitor: Hello Jay! In France with my spouse, urgent matter at hand.

Choose between these three Dynasty choices if you happen to’d be so type:

Ben Rice
Wilyer Abreu
George Lombard Jr.

Massive fan of your work, thx!

Jay Jaffe: Alas I’m ill-equipped to advise you on Dynasty choices — normally, i’m not the man to ask about any fantasy stuff — however do take pleasure in France!

Usually an enormous fan: Do you envision a state of affairs the place you’ll forged a vote for Felix Hernandez? What does that state of affairs seem like – is it a query of deserving to be a HoFer in your eye? a vote just like your vote for Pettitte? or voting to maintain him round on the poll for future dialogue/tendencies/and so on. (Thanks for taking the time to speak)

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t actually began to suppose too laborious about subsequent 12 months’s poll however I can say that every one else being equal I’d vote for Félix forward of Pettitte if I had just one slot open.

Tomas: Thanks for taking the time to speak with us, Jay. Fast query: how would you rank you, your daughter and the snowman when it comes to being a reliable outfielder for the Padres in 2024?

Jay Jaffe: I labored my ass off on the elliptical machine earlier than heading to Chamonix to ski with my father, and whereas I’m not in the perfect form of my life at 54, I skied 104,000 vertical ft over six days and am in higher form than I’ve been in 20 years. My daughter might be fairly playable if you happen to don’t thoughts her sitting down and asking about whether or not she will be able to have a snack in the course of the inning. The snowman… already is melting a bit so I’m not wild about his long-term possibilities

A Big Fan: Hello Jay, I am usually big fan of your stuff and in addition wish to say thanks for taking the time to speak! Is Josh Sborz probably the most unlikely World Sequence-clinching pitcher in historical past?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the type phrases. that’s a really fascinating and enjoyable query. Offhand Sborz appears to be a reasonably unlikely selection however let’s see what occurs after I throw this into Stathead

Jay Jaffe: eyeballing it, for probably the most half these are high-quality relievers and the occasional double-duty pulling starter closing out clinchers. 1961 Bud Daley for the Yankees appears fairly random as he was a below-average starter, however even his 90 ERA+ for the season was higher than Sborz’s 81.

Snaks: What’s your go-to snack to have whereas enjoying baseball? How about within the dugout?

Jay Jaffe: properly, i don’t actually get to play anymore however my go-to snack throughout snowboarding, and one in all my daughter’s for enjoying, is the darkish chocolate Type bars.

nate: who is best morton or sale

Jay Jaffe: Two guys who each closed out current World Sequence, back-to-back even (2017 and 2018). Sale’s the one with the stronger profession however Morton threw extra innings final 12 months than Sale has within the final 4, and was excellent doing so. I’d take him over Sale proper now.

Kenley Jansen: Why are the Pink Sox attempting to commerce me? And why don’t the Dodgers need me again? Let Evan Phillips play the fireman function and I can rack up saves because the “nearer” with out stepping on anybody’s toes or messing up the excessive leverage roles in the remainder of the pen, proper? I received’t even value that a lot since I’m a wage dump! LOVE ME, FRIEDMAN!!!!

Jay Jaffe: The Pink Sox are going low-cost once more, eh? I feel the purpose for any group buying you’ll be to make Boston eat as a lot of that $16 million as attainable. That can solely occur as soon as Boston resigns itself to doing so, however I don’t see a probable match with the Dodgers, who’re already above the fourth tier CBT threshold.

All good: Do you place the cream/milk or the espresso in your cup first? Do you stir? Which course? How about cereal, milk or cereal first?

Jay Jaffe: Milk goes in after the espresso and, uh, I feel I are likely to stir clockwise. I don’t eat cereal as of late.

Plus shoveler: Greetings from Buffalo – decrease again ache has restricted my shoveling abilities, however I’m nonetheless a strong 60+. Snow sucks, however take pleasure in snowman constructing with the kiddo, that’s how we keep sane up right here within the Nice White North.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, my decrease again is a threat in terms of transferring Buffalo-level snow. My days of doing which might be over.

Knock on wooden, our neighbors have been very neighborly in terms of shoveling the sidewalks when it’s snowed right here since we moved. In flip, we’ve made certain to examine to see if anyplace on our half of the block wants salting later within the day.

Rational Reds Followers: What do you do with Jonathan India if you happen to’re the Cincinnati Reds?

Jay Jaffe: I feel finally they commerce him for pitching assist, however not instantly. With so many children within the lineup, it’s fairly attainable that one would possibly wrestle and have to be despatched down, through which case it’s good to have India round for the needs of flexibility.

Richie Allen and the Ebonistics: Do you suppose Mr. Allen has a great shot on the poll this fall?

Jay Jaffe: I dearly hope he makes it — I feel he’s probably the most certified non-Negro Leagues candidate on the market, however I’m not going to go as far as to be optimistic that the celebs will align this time after a lot heartbreak.

Mike: At present studying Lords of the Realm by John Helyar. Do you suppose any proprietor or GM who took half within the collusion from 86-87 ought to have been outlawed from the Corridor? Bud Selig actually involves thoughts

Jay Jaffe: I don’t find out about outlawed (banned) however I certain as hell wouldn’t have voted for him due to his function in collusion

Bobby: Do you subscribe to the concept that the highest 20 gamers of every place in JAWS ought to be corridor of famers? Should you do, are you able to get on board with the Dustin Pedroia case, and if not why?

Jay Jaffe: prime 20 is a little bit of a stretch. High 10 for certain, prime 15 largely. Pedroia is a bit too far on the perimeter for my tastes however I can perceive why he would have his proponents.

Jack: The place do you expect Snell/Montgomery to finish up?

Jay Jaffe: Angels for Snell, Rangers for Montgomery

Butts, Esquire: Jorge Soler at 3/42 – overpay, pay, underpay?

Jay Jaffe: To those eyes a little bit of an overpay however not egregious. He was ok final 12 months to justify the deal, however 2020-22 produced a web of 0.7 WAR, which, yikes. So there’s threat.

Justin: Hello Jay! Thanks a lot for all of your HOF evaluation work this 12 months. It was a whole lot of enjoyable, as at all times, to comply with alongside. Do you anticipate any new contributions to your S-JAWS collection within the subsequent month? I used to be not too long ago re-reading a few of these items from final 12 months and they’re nice. Looks like you’ve been hinting not too long ago at extra concepts in that sphere.

Jay Jaffe: I’m going to be writing about beginning pitchers and the Corridor within the close to future, hopefully. Not essentially as a part of the S-JAWS collection instantly however I do wish to choose up the place i left off sooner or later.

Austin D.: Is there a case to be made for Gene Tenace as a hall-of-famer? Conventional stats would in all probability dissuade old-school voters, however his WRC+ places him as probably the greatest offensive catchers ever, and he has 40+ JAWS on prime of that. To not point out arguably probably the greatest World Sequence performances of all time.

Jay Jaffe: I feel his case is simply too esoteric — and his batting common too low — to get previous the gatekeepers who make the ballots. As I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, a unicorn will probably be made commissioner of baseball earlier than he’s elected to the Corridor of Fame.

Phil: Yamamoto’s projections on Steamer and Zips are much less “ace” and extra “strong #2/superior #3”. Dodgers clearly paid ace cash, so is there something you suppose the projection programs are lacking?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s important to keep in mind that projection programs are likely to have their reservations about EVERYBODY. No one goes to undertaking to look dominant proper out of the gate, particularly with none MLB expertise underneath their belts. Now we have Yamamoto with a Depth Charts projection of three.8 WAR the place the highest pitchers are at 5.0. But that projection is the same as that of Corbin Burnes and 0.1 forward of Gerrit Cole. He’s going to be wonderful.

Daniel: What kind of season do you suppose we’re about to see from Tatis? How seemingly is it he returns to his 2021 batting kind?

Alby: Does Luis Tiant have any shot on the Corridor of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: I’d name it a protracted shot. He hasn’t fared properly on Period Committee ballots however he stays highly regarded amongst followers, and which will imply one other look ultimately.

benjamin: large hater power by that first man lol. do you suppose a powerful closing 5y with the twins places correa into not less than HOF convo?

Jay Jaffe: Correa’s early begin and success will preserve him in play for the Corridor of Fame for awhile however he’s bought to get again on monitor after a reasonably disappointing 2023.

Mr. Burrito: Andruw Jones had one of many higher age 20-something careers, and slipped (ate his manner?) into an abyss shortly after turning 30. Jones’ 20s have been so sturdy, in truth, that I kinda/sorta consider he ought to be within the Corridor, although I’d argue he defrauded my beloved Dodgers… My query: Who, in your view, had the perfect age 30-something and age 40-something careers? (For the fogeys I’d argue Darrell Evans and Davey Lopes have been weirdly nice after age 40, however I’m certain you may consider others.) Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Many of the all-time greats have been nice after 30 in addition to earlier than. A take a look at the leaderboard for WAR from 30 onward is just about the same old suspects: Bonds, Wagner, Mays, Ruth, Aaron, Cobb. Adrián Beltré is barely nineteenth on the checklist with 52.2 WAR (0.2 lower than Jackie Robinson) however strikes me as a man who actually elevated himself into the pantheon from 30 onward. Edgar Martinez, only a couple spots beneath, is in that group as properly. https://stathead.com/tiny/qtp1W

Visitor: Hello Jay- are you able to give an approximation of how Witt’s profession arc must go for his choice to be picked up? I’m struggling to consider a state of affairs the place he does properly sufficient for the group to need the short-term extension that the choice gives, however poorly sufficient the place he wouldn’t decide out in any of the 4 years beforehand.

Jay Jaffe: This can be a good query for Ben Clemens, who does an awesome job of modeling these thread-the-needle situations

Jay Jaffe: okay people, whereas there are nonetheless a ton of excellent questions within the queue, it’s time for me to move off. Thanks a lot for stopping by at present. Hopefully I’ll get again into an everyday rhythm with these and we’ll be again at it subsequent week.