Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/17/23


Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to the LCS version of my weekly chat. Yesterday we had a few video games that bought blown open early however tightened up late, and we now have the Rangers heading again to Arlington up 2-0 and the Phillies up 1-0 on the Diamondbacks after Schwaber, Harper, and Castellanos hit about 1300 toes price of early homers.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Subsequent up for me is a chunk on Kim Ng’s departure from Miami and hopefully a Corbin Carroll factor for later this week.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the present
KC Ache: Any data on Ng?  Looks as if possession and her w a rift from what I learn…..however was that occuring all 12 months?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ll have extra tomorrow however I believe there have been a few associated issues happening. Ng needed to scrub home a bit so far as workers to seek out individuals she was extra in alignment with and convey some new voices into the group — one thing that labored out effectively when she bought to rent a brand new supervisor (Schumaker) — however proprietor Bruce Sherman apparently wasn’t amenable to that. He’s planning on bringing in a president of baseball operations, so she primarily would have been demoted to second-in-command, which doesn’t play effectively if you’ve simply guided a group to its first full season above .500 in 14 years and their first full-season playoff berth in 20.
Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: The best way the playoff format has advanced over the many years, we are actually seeing extra video games that includes lesser groups, and fewer video games that includes the very best groups. This doesn’t appear fascinating to me; I’d assume the optimum format could be a showcase of the elite groups taking part in one another.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: sure however there’s extra playoff video games, see, and within the eyes of Rob Manfred and the MLB homeowners, which means extra money no matter who will get the piece of metallic.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s necessary to keep in mind that MLB’s imaginative and prescient of optimizing means extra money, with a nod to aggressive steadiness within the “everyone-has-a-chance” model
Avatar Jay Jaffe: whereas your imaginative and prescient of optimizing (and mine) might be one thing a lot totally different
Unhappy White Sox Fan: Why do the White Sox need to be the post-World Sequence Kansas Metropolis Royals?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Man, it’s a tragic factor when your primary aspiration in life is to take care of a vise-like grip on fourth place within the AL Central.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe Jerry Reinsdorf may have a look at the Royals and say, “See, they’re not spending some huge cash and who cares?”
Kevin: Do you assume there would have been a lot outcry in regards to the variety of days off for division winners had the sequence been extra aggressive? (I actually assume the larger situation was the sequence lacked drama reasonably than the underdogs received. Had the sequence been aggressive, I believe individuals could be applauding the underdogs for having received.)
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s principally a response to the Dodgers and Orioles geting smoked. The Braves-Phillies sequence was fairly aggressive in that three of the 4 video games had been determined by a complete of six runs, however the Braves solely led fleetingly. The Twins-Astros sequence was fairly aggressive, too.
Tim: Is the Orioles’ 2024 nearer at present within the group or will he be added this low season?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: With Bautista out attributable to TJ, it wouldn’t shock me in the event that they exit and get somebody, although on the similar time, I don’t assume they’re inclined to spend massive cash on a name-brand nearer, so deciding amongst Cano, Perez, and possibly Corridor might be a manner to economize and spend it on one other space of want.
Sean Malloy: Of the large three energetic relievers (Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman), which one do you assume will get probably the most help on the HOF poll? How a lot do you assume BBWAA voters worth postseason efficiency for aid pitchers?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe Kimbrel and Jansen are effectively forward of Chapman by way of possible help, they usually have very related numbers and profession patterns, so it’s robust to separate them. As for postseason stuff, the writers do worth it for closers, however as Billy Wagner’s climb in direction of 75% illustrates, an absence of it isn’t essentially a dealbreaker.
KC Ache: Hoping the fever isnt a double entendre and you’re beneath the climate.  Who do you assume has had the best path up to now looking back?  The hardest?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Fortunately I’m in good well being apart from a perpetual scarcity of sleep. When it comes to paths up to now, assuming you’re speaking in regards to the 4 groups nonetheless standing, it’s clearly the Astros, who confronted an 87-win group of their solely spherical in comparison with the others every knocking off a group with 100 or extra wins. As for the hardest path up to now, it’s most likely the Rangers, who swept two groups that mixed to win 200 video games this 12 months.
Too many Mooks: If Ohtani indicators with the dodgers, do you assume it turns into *much less * possible that Kershaw retires this offseason, due to how enjoyable that group might be?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe Kershaw’s resolution will come earlier than Ohtani’s, partly as a result of there does clearly appear to be some medical facet to it. That shoulder wasn’t proper, and I ponder if he wants surgical procedure.
Sammy So-so: So, was the infinite chorus about shifting suppressing offense a variety of scorching air or was there truly some impact? Can we inform after one season? Thanks, Jay.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Effectively, 12 months over 12 months the MLB-wide batting common rose 5 factors (from .243 to .248) and BABIPs rose by seven factors (from .290 to .297), with slugging percentages rising 19 factors (.395 to .414), although that half might have been much less attributable to the shift than to rising house run charges. I believe it’ll take just a few seasons to get a real grasp on the consequences of the ban but it surely does appear to have stimulated some offense.
Brewers: 20 Pirates: 0: Actually impressed with the Texas Rangers postseason up to now. Can they probably win a World Sequence title with out shedding a playoff sport?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I doubt it. No person has carried out it within the age of the Wild Card, and that i’m simply not holding my breath anticipating that they’ll.
Schmeeper: What are the chances Houston takes 2/3 or 3/3 in Texas? They’ve performed very well in Arlington and I just like the pitching matchups for Houston (I consider in JV if it comes all the way down to needing a win in sport 5).
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Going by the ZiPS game-by-game odds, they’ve a couple of 1-in-8 probability of taking the following three video games and — did I do that proper? — a couple of 3-in-8 probability of taking two of three.
Insert Witty Identify Right here: May Playoff Harper do something that may surpass him as being larger than Mike Trout?  I do know playoff success is group primarily based, however the narrative…
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Eh, possibly from a story standpoint, Harper may surpass Trout — or already has — however Trout has virtually a 40-WAR edge on Harper (85.2 to 46.2 in bWAR) along with extra particular person {hardware}.
Noah: Is there information that may enable factoring influence performs into evaluation of participant worth? As an example, I’m pondering final evening of how Schwarber turning on that first pitch fastball and the way it set an offensive tone/method for the following few innings.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: You may have a look at WPA or Championship WPA when you’re making an attempt to quantify the influence of a play however Schwarber’s homer, as emphatic because it was, doesn’t stand out tremendously. It elevated the Phillies’ probabilities of successful by 10%, tied with the play by which Moreno reached on Dominguez’s throwing error to place first and third with no out within the seventh, with Harper’s homer 9%, and Gurriel’s game-ending GIDP 9% as effectively. Within the ALCS sport that preceded them there have been at the very least 5 performs that swung the chances 10% or extra in a single path or one other
KC Ache: Ideas on what ATL does now?  Go massive on SP reinforcements?  Give it one other go and simply pray they keep away from Philly subsequent 12 months?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: sure, they should reinforce their rotation, notably with Wright out for the season attributable to capsule surgical procedure. They’ve a $20 million choice on Morton that’s most likely price selecting up at the same time as he heads into his age-40 season (he was at 2.7 WAR this 12 months) however I believe they want at the very least another mid-rotation arm.
Homer: Albies at 19.3 fWAR at 26.75 years previous, which is a good begin, however he appears to be topping out within the 4-4.5 WAR/12 months vary.  Any probability he has one other gear that can give him the form of peak that may lead to a spot within the HOF?  Would one other 10 years of 4 to 4.5 struggle get him there, even with out the star-level peak?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s an excellent participant, and 20.2 bWAR by his age-26 season ranks twenty third amongst second basemen, with some HOFers adjoining (see https://stathead.com/tiny/1OStr), however he has but to place up a single 5.0 WAR season and he’s going to have to seek out a few of these to face out as a candidate.
Smiling Politely: If the Brewers had been good, they’d interview Ng to switch Stearns after which beat the Marlins subsequent 12 months
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The issue along with your concept is that Matt Arnold is now the Brewers’ president of baseball operations so I don’t see a spot for Ng there. The one POBO opening, I believe, is the Pink Sox until the White Sox determine to usher in any individual above Chris Getz — which may be type of bizarre on condition that they only promoted him, however possibly that’s why their search didn’t appear all that intensive.
Vermonty: If a GM’s massive strikes backfire, shouldn’t they lose their job? I’m pondering Cashman right here, and I’ve all the time defended him , however is now the time for a change?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The issue is that you just’re assuming that solely the largest and most publicly seen bets — this signing, that commerce — matter, when there’s a complete lot extra that goes into the job. Which isn’t essentially to defend Cashman, who like the remainder of us is watching a variety of ex-Yankees have high-quality postseasons, but it surely’s simply not so simple as “they misplaced this commerce, off along with his head.”
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Personally I believe the Yankees ought to kick Cashman upstairs and herald a brand new GM, and Ng would appear to be well-suited for that chance.
marginal utility participant: ideas on “playoff performers” usually? Is it pattern measurement? affirmation bias? or are some gamers simply higher within the postseason?

The participant who might be most identified for being an important postseason performer not too long ago is David Ortiz, whose postseason numbers are a seams’ width away from his common season statistics. The entire notion of some gamers being particular in postseason simply looks as if an overrated speaking level to me

Avatar Jay Jaffe: A number of it’s pattern measurement however I do assume some gamers are notably well-wired for the postseason, higher capable of focus and never let the second overtake them in ways in which will increase the potential of success. That mentioned, David Ortiz went 2-for-22 within the 2013 ALCS and had just a few different dud sequence. Harper hit simply .200/.360/.400 in final 12 months’s World Sequence. Mariano Rivera gave up the 2001 walk-off hit to Luis Gonzalez within the World Sequence and the decisive homer to Sandy Alomar Jr. within the 1997 ALDS. No participant is so clutch that they’re perpetually infallible within the playoffs.
12 to six: Kershaw/[Giolito]/Buehler/Miller/Pepiot/Sheehan/Grove/Ferguson/Stone/[May]/[Gonzo].

Assuming CK comes again, and even with out a topline SP signing (like Giolito, who could be an important match) am I simply foolish for being cautiously optimistic. The playoffs had been a catastrophe however the Dodgers *did* efficiently break in about 2/5 of a pitching workers this 12 months….

Avatar Jay Jaffe: They’ve a variety of younger expertise, however the issue — as we’ve already seen — is that younger pitchers get harm, don’t develop evenly, and face workload constraints. They’ll want to seek out some pitchers to take up vital innings, whether or not that’s Giolito or Lynn (on whom they’ve an choice) or any individual else. However notably with Urias gone, they do want one other frontliner, which is why it is sensible for them to go after Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Visitor: Is Ng a scorching sufficient commodity at this level to make somebody just like the Padres or Angels drop Preller or Minasian and make a run?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I doubt both of these groups will hearth a sitting exec to rent her but it surely’s price noting that Preller is POBO in San Diego, whereas Minasian is simply the GM in Anaheim, with no POBO above him.
The Oriole Chicken: As an O’s fan, this group got here up to now out from left subject this 12 months to win 101 video games, that I say who cares that they bought swept by the Rangers.  Let’s benefit from the subsequent 3-4 years!
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s extra expertise on the best way beginning with Jackson Holliday, so it’s an excellent time to be an O’s fan. Hopefully they’ll take the success and exhausting classes from this season and construct upon them.
KC Ache: Odds Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer retire this 12 months?  All appear to be in spots the place playoffs are attainable subsequent 12 months.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Kershaw is a free agent and will effectively determine he’s had sufficient. Verlander and Shcherzer are each assured $43.3 million subsequent 12 months, alternatively, so I’d say there’s a sub-zero probability both retires no matter what occurs this October.
Deck: Concerning blaming the GM — it appears to me, that what isn’t identified publicly is how a lot the GM acts on his personal initiative and the way a lot the GM acts merely as an agent for the proprietor.  It appears harsh to fireplace a man as a result of he did what you advised him to do.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Sure, excellent factors. The GM and even the POBO doesn’t set the finances, doesn’t unilaterally make the large signing, and so on.
Benny: Final 12 months we had 4 further inning postseason video games. There haven’t been any but this 12 months. And we haven’t had any winner-take-all video games both. Any thought when the final 12 months we had a postseason with no further innings or winner take all video games?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: By way of Stathead, it appears just like the final time we didn’t have a postseason further inning sport was 2006, with 2002 the one different Wild Card-era season with out one. It appears like we final lacked what Stathead calls a “sudden loss of life” sport was in 2009, with 1998 the one different Wild-Card period season with out one.
Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you assume 2028 Olympic baseball will compete with 2029 WBC for gamers/curiosity/and so on? What are the chances professionals truly are allowed to compete within the Olympics?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Doubt they’ll be competing towards one another as a result of I don’t see MLB stopping its season to permit energetic main leaguers to play. Nor ought to it as a result of **** the Olympics.
Ben: Considering again to Mike Trout being drafted at twenty fifth, how a lot of that was he being a child from NJ versus individuals simply missed it with him?  I do know drafts are tough, but it surely looks as if he was good in professional ball from the phrase Go!
James: The place would you place the chances the Yordan breaks the all-time playoff house run file ultimately? 12 homers at age 26 is formidable.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Effectively, he’s not even midway to Manny Ramirez’s file of 29, and the factor I’d fear about with him is accidents; he’s already had one main knee harm, has averaged simply 131 video games over the previous three seasons, and is especially a DH. Don’t get me improper, I count on him to maintain accumulating postseason homers, however even when he’s averaging over 4 postseason homers a 12 months whereas the Astros play three rounds, he’s bought to undergo one other 4 seasons like that — and it appears unlikely the Astros can be that constantly aggressive for that lengthy.
Lorenzo: Will Kodai Senga get the next general rating in ROY voting or CY Younger voting?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe he’ll most likely be 2nd within the NL Rookie of the Yr voting to Corbin Carroll, however I determine at the very least Snell, Strider,  and Steele will end forward of him within the Cy Younger voting, probably with the 2 Zac(okay)s forward of him too. Nonetheless, a really good season
12 to six: oh, with out query la wants two arms that may take in 180-200 innings, which is why i’d assume lynn coming again and one other mid-range starter is probably going (and why urias going out, and justifiably, was a depth cost for them – he was common to stable this 12 months on the mound, however he was principally a assure to take the ball each 5 days). i’d love yamamoto however they nonetheless want one other innings soaker.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: agreed
Mateo: are you able to share extra about your specific distaste for the Olympics, Jay?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the IOC is inherently corrupt in its dealings, with the host metropolis the one that may bribe probably the most officers. They’ve already proven a disdain for baseball by not having it’s an everyday medal sport (the 2021 Olympics was the primary time since 2008 and it received’t be there in 2024).
mac: what makes the yankees assume they’re so particular that they don’t have to alter personnel when issues have gone horribly awry?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: cash. revenue. inexperienced.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They’re a money-making machine and maybe too complacent in regards to the worth of the model versus the necessity to wield their monetary clout as a way to fortify their roster.
Benny: You simply talked about Senga, Snell, Strider, Steele, Gallen, and Wheeler within the Cy Younger combine. I do know Webb didn’t have the shiniest W-L file or ERA, however simply averaging bWAR and fWAR collectively, he comes out forward of all 6 of the others. I’m certain Snell will win, however do you assume Webb will get any consideration from the voters?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’ll be shut out, and don’t want to denigrate his season in any respect — it was a rattling good one — however an 11-13 file with fewer than 200 strikeouts isn’t going to assist him stand out within the present crowd.
Bernardo: Within the case of a Phillies-Rangers World Sequence, who do you assume matches up higher? Looks as if a toss as much as me
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d have to consider that one however it might definitely be a variety of enjoyable to see that matchup!
KC Ache: Any probability they up the pickoff from 2….to at the very least 3?  I dont need 10 of them however felt that 2 is just too few.  In any other case liked the brand new guidelines.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Perhaps ultimately however i’m skeptical we’ll see a change for subsequent 12 months.
mac: what’s the substantive distinction between a durable-but-unexceptional beginning pitcher racking up a excessive win whole as a result of he performed with an important offense his entire profession and brian cashman being a “corridor of fame gm” as a result of he labored with the best finances and most assets within the league yearly?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: For higher or worse, flags fly perpetually, and Cashman has helped fly a bunch of them. They’re celebrated in an outsized manner and rewarded as such in relation to the Corridor, particularly since executives don’t have a variety of different goal measures to go by. The assets and finances give (gave) Cashman benefits — and definitely he inherited some glorious gamers who had been a part of the group’s success  — however as we’ve seen again and again, cash doesn’t assure something, and the playoffs are designed to weaken that hyperlink.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Okay people, it’s time for me to roll. Take pleasure in the remainder of the LCSes and we’ll join once more subsequent week!


Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the creator of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Observe him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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