Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people!

Jay Jaffe: After spending many of the previous 24 hours in mattress with a low-grade fever and abdomen bug, I’ve returned to the land of the dwelling

Phil: There’s been lots of justified warning tempering expectations about Trevor Story. Can we lastly begin to really feel like, sure, the Pink Sox have their shortstop in the end?

Jay Jaffe: He’s off to an excellent begin, and it’s actually good to see. I don’t anticipate him to remain this sizzling however I believe he could be a drive in that lineup if he stays wholesome. The factor is, well being is a ability, and he’s had a tough time staying out there. Fingers crossed he can achieve this

Idiotic Failson: Is Semien cooked? He’s been terrible.

Jay Jaffe: Good query. He’s not hitting the ball appreciably worse than final yr. I believe he is perhaps price a more in-depth look in an article. I’m curious as to what’s happening as nicely

not the lunch man: Alcantara for Alcantara. Who says no/what else must be within the deal?

Jay Jaffe: Sandy A. has been fairly unhealthy to date since getting back from TJ surgical procedure, excessive stroll fee, low chase. I’m unsure I’d hand over a lot for him proper now.

Weird1@Portland: Will Bellinger be a 20-20 man with a .250 BA?

Jay Jaffe: he’s solely stolen 20 bases as soon as, so I’d guess in opposition to that. He’s off to a tough begin with the Yankees, hitting the ball tougher however strikeout fee means up. Unsure but what’s happening there

Jazzy Jaffe: When you began on 1B, and Chandler Simpson began at residence, do you assume you would win a foot race to 2B?

Jay Jaffe: I believe I might do this, if I used to be warmed up, however I’d want per week of icing my hamstrings and quads

Jay Jaffe: Talking of which, obliquely, I acquired round to streaming Eephus the opposite night time. Offbeat, entertaining and meandering film about baseball and the passage of time. Some nice performances together with Invoice Lee popping out of the woods to throw an inning

Jay Jaffe: yesterday after I was sick I saved pondering of the sore-kneed catcher moaning, “I have to be put down.”

Bobby: Clearly it’s nonetheless very early in Elly De La Cruz’s profession. However at what level wouldn’t it be legitimate to essentially start questioning if he’ll ever be an elite hitter?

Jay Jaffe: it’s legitimate. he’s gotta lower down on the swing-and-miss. he hits the ball laborious sufficient and is as entertaining as any participant within the recreation, however that  33% strikeout fee makes it laborious to place up huge numbers

Jay Jaffe: I’d pay cash to look at him leg out a triple although

Tacoby Bellsbury: Have you ever learn any of Laurila’s interview lookbacks at outdated scouting stories? In that case, what have a few of your takeaways been?

Jay Jaffe: The Cody Bellinger one I preferred rather a lot as nicely. It’s very attention-grabbing to see these guys addressing assessments of their strengths and weaknesses, realizing that they panned out the place so many others of comparable ability might not have executed so.

Rick: Given it’s so early within the season, what are key indicators that you simply have a look at by way of figuring out how hitter are performing, we dont normally have strong pattern sizes till a few months into the season however how can we establish sizzling bats or guys firing up?

Jay Jaffe: The primary issues I have a look at, particularly for gamers who’re struggling, are swing and chase charges — in the event that they’re out of whack with a man’s monitor document, he could also be urgent. then I have a look at the statcast numbers, particularly as soon as we get to 60 BBE, the place they begin to stabilize — are his precise numbers consistent with his anticipated ones?

Johnny5Alive: to date, mets appear to have made the appropriate name re: alonso, however is he pricing himself out of one other contract with them? how a lot has this begin helped his subsequent contract?

Jay Jaffe: he’s off to an excellent begin but it surely’s early. I’m very intrigued by his large drop in Okay% and his spike in exit velocity, however I need to see the extent to which these maintain up when he’s now not slugging .695.

Jay Jaffe: As for whether or not he’s pricing himself out of the Mets, I believe if he has an enormous season, it’s gonna be very robust for Uncle Stevie to not open his checkbook — this can be a fan favourite  and a group very a lot in win-now mode

Yolmer Sanchez: The Whitesox might have misplaced Martin Perez for almost all of the season. Who on the earth can they use to eat innings? Will they throw one other teen into the fireplace to see what they’ve acquired? Or do they go forward and decide somebody up like Triston McKenzie (regardless of the yips)?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability time to start the thawing of Early Wynn

Jay Jaffe: that’s a bummer about Perez, I didn’t see that he was so rapidly moved to the 60-day IL. By no means a great signal.

the White Sox have little to lose by attempting to see if they’ll repair McKenzie however I don’t know that they’ve any additional perception relating to coping with a participant going by means of what he’s going by means of. However they’re ready the place they completely want so as to add expertise to their system by any means they’ll so it will possibly’t harm to take a shot

Tim: Is it truthful to surprise if Aaron Nola is harm? BABIP and LOB counsel he’s been unfortunate, Velo and Stuff+ say he’s inferior to final yr (at the very least).

Jay Jaffe: I consider that Davy Andrews, the most recent addition to our full-time roster, is engaged on a bit about Nola. I’m seeing the identical issues you might be — the velo and stuff are down. he’s nonetheless getting comparable chase and swing-and-miss charges so possibly it’s only a mechanical rut and never an damage however.. he’s acquired a lotta mileage on him

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived. I had solely about 12 ounces of Lipton hen noodle soup and half a bagel yesterday so I’m ravenously hungry

Jay Jaffe: daring transfer to get again on the horse with a burrito however I believe it’s a great signal I’m that formidable

Gene Lamont: Clay Holmes has been comparatively strong to date, clearly not as strong as Seth Lugo was to start out final yr. Do you assume Holmes may have Lugo-like success because the yr goes on or do you assume he’ll simply keep on the degree he’s at the moment at?

Jay Jaffe: We’re nonetheless fairly early within the Holmes-as-starter experiment however I like what I’m seeing. Each the four-seamer and changeup have been efficient additions to his arsenal

Jay Jaffe: i don’t know that he will be pretty much as good as Lugo has change into however I’m not ruling it out

buffy, the umpire slayer: We’re about 30 days into the season. In deciding on alternative gamers, how a lot weight ought to ROS projections be in comparison with what a participant has truly produced in these 30 days. Joc Pederson and Ben Rice are examples (each methods) of gamers the place the attention take a look at appears to override the numerical projections.

Jay Jaffe: projections are necessary as a result of they replicate a man’s monitor document whereas incorporating age-based adjustments, however as we’ve seen time and again, participant improvement has change into extra malleable as gamers do issues like overhaul their swings or engineer pitches so as to add to their arsenals. Rice has added a ton of bat pace and is hitting the ball a lot tougher so I believe we have to mentally regulate our expectations.

I’m unsure what’s going on with Joc. I anticipate he’ll snap ou of it however I ponder if he’s absolutely wholesome.

Jordan: What can the Pirates do to salvage the 2024-26 seasons?

Jay Jaffe: Promote the group

Jay Jaffe: Nothing is ever going to alter for the Pirates as long as Bob Nutting is the proprietor. We’re 18 years into this, and outdoors of a short flash of success when the celebrities aligned from 2013–15, it’s been the identical outdated story. They only don’t add sufficient expertise to that group as a result of they don’t spend.

Mr. Burrito: I’m not whining, I swear. I get that any Dodgers issues, this yr, are first-world points. However I’m getting frightened about Muncy and Pages more and more seems like a 4th outfielder. Do they want one other bat? And, if that’s the case, ought to it’s Luis Robert Jr.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been somewhat skeptical about Pages given his contact points, and boy howdy have these resurfaced. He might very nicely be a 4th outfielder.Unsure but what’s happening with Muncy however we’ve seen him undergo funks earlier than and he at all times appears to seek out his means out. Perhaps the opposite Max Muncy is stealing his mojo.

Robert has been so unhealthy for the previous year-plus, I wouldn’t contact him with a 40-foot pole

Huge Jim: Jay – thanks for taking the time right now and glad you’re feeling higher (pre-burrito).

Jay Jaffe: thanks, it’s good to be again within the land of the upright

Huge Jim: What can we feasibly anticipate from Lance McCullers as soon as he’s again in motion?  Do you assume that he finally strikes to excessive leverage aid if he’s efficient (given his prolonged damage historical past)?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume anyone actually is aware of — this can be a man who’s made eight begins for the reason that 2021 season and who has solely as soon as made greater than 22 begins. I’m unsure that shorter however extra frequent bursts of motion is the reply, however possibly that’s what it would take

md: What are your ideas on the (largely unhinged fan) scuttlebutt of attempting to get Muncy outta there for Arenado?Friedman has form of been on document saying he doesn’t like huge midseason trades like that, proper?

Jay Jaffe: I’m fairly lukewarm on Arenado at this stage, at the very least by way of giving up vital expertise for him. By all proof he’s a league-average bat with a glove that’s nonetheless above common however now not elite. That’s helpful however not any individual I wanna pay $25–30M per yr for

Sevvy: What proportion would you place your confidence at for Chandler Simpson with the ability to deal with main league pitchers? He not often struck out and walked at a good clip within the minors. I don’t get why so many assume that wouldn’t switch nicely along with his pace.

Jay Jaffe: I believe the priority is that he’s acquired so little energy that there’s little cause for pitchers to not problem him and he finally ends up with a Juan Pierre-type profile.

Allison: Is Luis Robert overrated or simply mentally executed on a horrible group?

Jay Jaffe: That’s an excellent query. I wouldn’t low cost the impact of being surrounded by a depressing state of affairs however… even when that’s the case it doesn’t converse nicely of the participant as a result of there are a lot who can block that out and nonetheless carry out nicely. What I do assume is extra seemingly is that White Sox are so behind the instances that he’s not getting the correct intel for a way he’s being pitched and the way to regulate.

Mo’s bowtie: No matter “on-field efficiency” and all that, what do you assume the chances are of Bloom deciding on a brand new supervisor in Stl for 2026?  How necessary is that to a “new” GM?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been fairly unimpressed by Marmol… and, frankly, each Cardinals supervisor since La Russa. If I’m Bloom I desire a recent begin with a brand new voice within the dugout.

Unhappy O’s Fan: Hey Jay, random thought and I do know fangraphs isnt a fantasy baseball web site, however i feel it might be tremendous cool to have some form of “save” or “bookmark” on participant pages. As a fantasy participant i do most of my prospect analysis right here, and particularly when i learn an article or have a look at a participant web page for some attention-grabbing younger DSL man it might be nice to find a way come again to that listing of men on my fangraphs profile so i dont lose monitor of them down the street

Jay Jaffe: not a nasty thought. You are able to do issues like make a customized participant listing of your fantasy group so that you could pull up that report and see at a look how your guys are doing

For the birds: Ideas on the orioles pitching state of affairs? Like I get that Morton being their #1 wasn’t a part of the plan however he was nonetheless their #3 which isn’t a lot better

Jay Jaffe: To this point, I’m fairly underwhelmed by Elias’ potential to take care of a contender and don’t assume a lot of the brand new possession, which needs to be locking up these younger studs like Adley and Gunnar.

The Orioles didn’t do practically sufficient to fortify a rotation that was fairly mediocre apart from Burnes (who departed) and Grayson Rodriguez (who had damage points final yr and appears to be even worse off now). Morton is a positive #4 but when he’s nearer to the entrance of your rotation, you’ve acquired points.

ghost of Vin Scully: Am I proper to be disenchanted in Roki Sasaki’s efficiency up to now and even his eventual ceiling? Champagne issues and adjustment interval however, I can’t assist however assume he wants one other pitch. Fastball not producing whiffs

Jay Jaffe: There’s clearly lots of hype surrounding him and relative to that, he’s been a disappointment however I believe it’s necessary to keep in mind that he’s not a completed product. He’s 23, has a high-velo fastball and a nasty-as-hell splitter, however he could also be adjusting to the completely different baseball in addition to a unique tradition. I agree that he in all probability wants one other pitch… and higher command.

Lomster: Concerning your piece in regards to the Twins.  One other instance of their fumbling/bumbling: Baily Ober’s disastrous begin of March 30. Two days prior he was sick in mattress and the day earlier than the beginning he had an IV. If Ober had a desk job I might perceive “going to again to work” the subsequent day. However he’s a significant league pitcher the place the margins for fulfillment are already skinny when 100% wholesome, particularly in Ober’s state of affairs by which this season there have been considerations about his declining velo to start with. No matter occurred to placing your gamers in one of the best place to succeed? This was the exact opposite.

Jay Jaffe: there’s lots of machismo and satisfaction concerned relating to participant well being. I don’t assume that is particular to the Twins, however yeah I in all probability would have pushed him again within the rotation even when he declared he was good to go.

Visitor: It appears to me that any nice younger pitcher has considerably decrease HOF odds than an excellent younger place participant of roughly the identical age/expertise/expertise simply resulting from pitcher accidents.  Agree?  To attract out the comparability: Skenes HOF odds?  Elly HOF odds?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’d agree. We simply aren’t seeing longevity out of pitchers the way in which we used to resulting from accidents and — let’s face it — cash. Not all people goes to place themselves by means of one other surgical procedure/rehab cycle in the event that they’re sitting on a whole bunch of tens of millions of {dollars}. Makes you recognize what Kershaw has gone by means of the previous couple of years at the same time as he’s sealed the deal relating to Cooperstown.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, gonna name it right here since I’m not fairly 100% myself. Thanks a lot for stopping by!