Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to a different version of my weekly chat!

sliptoad: If Altuve sticks at left for just a few years earlier than changing into a pure DH, does that meaningfully change his HoF outlook? Wouldn’t it be simpler staying as a nasty 2B till the DH transfer, and even transferring to DH now?

Jay Jaffe: No, I don’t assume it adjustments something. No matter what occurs all through the rest of his profession, he’ll wind up having performed extra video games at, and accrued extra worth at second base than another place.

Jay Jaffe: if the adjustments assist him enhance his profession totals, it’s in all probability a internet constructive (barring the extra harm threat created by a transfer). I don’t see him doing a lot DHing in Houston as long as Yordan Alvarez is there, although

Henry Dodger: Mr. Jay, hey, good man! Each time I examine the Crimson Sox spring field scores Alex Bregman is both at 3B or DH. Odd in the event that they’re going to play him at 2B, isn’t it?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t actually tuned in to the drama surrounding all this however I imagine the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, who not too long ago wrote, “Ultimately, Bregman will play third base with Devers getting occasional video games there. The choice can be the Crimson Sox not placing their finest crew on the sphere.” Pete’s lined the Sox beat for a very long time and presumably has sufficient dependable sourcing inside the group to again that. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/02/26/sports activities/red-sox-roster-predictio…

Bongo: Among the many plethora of baseball narratives yearly, do you end up gravitating towards explicit sorts of tales?  For instance, youth actions are all the time enjoyable, or an in-their-prime star doing superb issues.  For me, I like watching the outdated guys combating Father Time another 12 months.  The misplaced trigger nature of it by some means feels noble to me.

Jay Jaffe: While you write about baseball 4-5 instances every week year-round, you do develop some staples that cowl a few of that output (e.g., my Corridor of Fame protection, my annual Alternative Stage Killers sequence) and concepts you possibly can fall again upon to assist get by means of the lean instances (my Nonetheless on the Cabinets take a look at accessible free brokers as soon as camps are open). Past that, I suppose I do have sure varieties of tales that appeal to me. The potential Corridor of Famer off to a sluggish begin or extreme harm or rebounding from one is a reasonably pure extension of my Corridor protection and matches inside the “combating Father Time” trope that you just counsel. The influence of a wave of a number of accidents is an efficient likelihood to tug collectively a handful of our instruments — projections, playoff odds, prospect protection. As I stay in New York, I’m a bit extra attuned to the ups and downs of its two groups (particularly after they’re at extremes, or controversial), and as I watch extra Dodgers video games than another non-NY groups, I’m primed to dig in there.

Jay Jaffe: Past all these — or generally inside these sorts — what I actually get pleasure from is determining, by means of reporting, statement, and information, is Why Has This Man’s Efficiency Modified? New pitch? Unhealthy mechanics? Unhealthy luck relative to Statcast? It’s a puzzle I get pleasure from taking a stab at fixing

Adam: Hello Jay, do you see the Phillies making any in-season or deadline trades if issues don’t go their means and in that case what sort of trades? The lineup is stacked on paper however the previous few years they haven’t been in a position to get the job achieved. The one factor I can see them having up their sleeve is a few kind of commerce down the highway

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t get to it within the Schwarber piece, however the Phillies’ most blatant avenue for upgrading their lineup is by admitting that Nick Castellanos is a sunk value and getting a proper fielder who isn’t assured to wind up on my annual Alternative Stage Killers checklist.

Jay Jaffe: and if issues actually go south, they might think about pending free brokers like Schwarber, Max Kepler, and Jordan Romano. I’d assume buying and selling JT Realmuto is much less seemingly as a result of I believe they’ll attempt hardest to retain him given the dearth of high quality catchers.

ed: Boone talked about a late spring potential acquistion for 3b. This has to occur, proper??

Jay Jaffe: I took a short look at their third base image — a mixture of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Jorbit Vivas, Pablo Reyes, and the desiccated husk of DJ LeMahieu — inside right this moment’s piece, noting that they rank twenty fourth on our Depth Charts, pushed virtually solely by good protection. Sadly for them, Gil’s harm makes Marcus Stroman a necessity moderately than a luxurious, and I believe they’d want to dump an enormous chunk of his $18 million wage to be able to add wage for a longtime third baseman.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see Nolan Arenado of their future, for as a lot sense as he would possibly make.

Sam: If Rose will get taken off the ineligible checklist, do you assume the Veterans Committee will vote him in?

Jay Jaffe: Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. He’d be underneath the purview of the Period Committee on the 2028 poll, however given his playing and different points I don’t assume he’s a lock for election. For those who’re in any respect contemplating the character clause he’s a simple no.

Patrick Dubuque had an excellent piece on Rose at Baseball Prospectus right this moment (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/information/article/96841/pardon-me/). This graf struck me as one thing Manfred would possibly take into consideration:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Regardless of the political second the place it appears in vogue to throw accountability out the window and venerate an alleged rapist with different main private failings, I don’t assume baseball is so simply going to be pushed round. I hope I’m proper.

comish4lif: I’d count on Pete Rose finally goes to one of many Veteran’s Committees – if he’s reinstated by Manfred from his “Everlasting Ban.”
However, If Pete Rose finally ends up on the BBHOF writers poll, can you are taking a guess at what proportion of writers vote him in? It’s undoubtedly NOT 75% is it? Please say underneath 5%.

Jay Jaffe: The BBWAA poll guidelines solely apply to gamers who’re at most 15 years faraway from their final appearances within the majors. Even if a faction of writers pitched a hissy match when the Corridor created its rule to not think about gamers on the completely ineligible checklist in February 1991, I don’t see the BBWAA and Corridor bending on that rule.

Because the voters’ dealing with of the candidacies of gamers comparable to Bonds, Clemens, and Vizquel who’ve notable off-field points alongside their names, it’s not arduous to search out the 20-ish votes it takes to achieve 5% on the poll. It’s a lot, a lot tougher to get to 75% with these black marks, although

Giant Rectangle: Hey Jay, first time very long time. Any lingering free brokers that you just’re stunned haven’t been signed but and ideas on the place they could find yourself touchdown?

I’m the Walrus: The place is the love from the Veteran’s Committee (or no matter its present identify is) for second basemen Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Willie Randolph? Is it as a result of they don’t have gaudy energy numbers? It appears to me {that a} strong argument may very well be made for all three of them.

Jay Jaffe: Since that trio has collectively appeared on one Period Committee poll, it’s not their love that’s missing a lot as it’s that of the Historic Overview Committee, the group of BBWAA elders charged with establishing the poll. Whereas there’s been some turnover in recent times, most of the people who sat on that committee seemingly eternally have been the identical ones who turned their noses up at Grich, Whitaker, Ted Simmons and others just a few many years in the past. It’s a type of double jeopardy!

Alex Anthopoulos: What ought to the Braves do now with the Murphy harm? Promote Baldwin? or experience it out with a mixture of Tromp/Casali/Leon whereas Murphy is out? Perhaps a very powerful query is what do they do when Murphy heals and Baldwin is doing good within the majors?

Jay Jaffe: Simply noticed this. Sean Murphy is predicted to be out 4-6 weeks as a consequence of fractured ribs after a HBP, inserting his return in early to mid-April. I believe that except this turns into one thing a lot greater, the Braves will experience with some mixture of Tromp and one of many two NRI veterans on minor league offers since they might lose one by having to move him by means of waivers in the event that they wish to ship him down upon Murphy’s return.

Visitor: Who do you see successful the fifth spot within the Padres rotation.  I’m rooting for Waldron, however am intrigued by Hart.  Vazquez simply doesn’t appear to be the reply.

Jay Jaffe: I’d like to see Waldron, the knuckleballer, return to the rotation after being displaced late final season, however I don’t assume they signed Hart to be an extended man, and Waldron and Vazquez every has an choice remaining.

War2d2: Hello Jay! Your Schwarber article made me take into consideration the pack of prospects the Cubs had circa 2014/15, and the place they’re now. In the end none of them might be HoF candidates, however who do you assume historical past might be kindest to? If Rizzo is certainly achieved he’ll find yourself with simply in need of 40 bWAR, Bryant (barring an unlikely resurgence) will find yourself round 30, Baez in all probability 20 (assuming he will get sufficient taking part in time to additional erode what he earned as a Cub), Schwarber round 20 as nicely. Bryant’s peak blows the remaining away, however does Rizzo’s relative steadiness imply historical past will take a look at him extra kindly? My scorching take: due to his postseason heroics with different groups, I believe Schwarber is the one individuals nonetheless bear in mind in 20 yrs (assuming, as all the time, society makes it that far).

Jay Jaffe: I believe they’ll all be remembered for one cause or one other — the Baez and Bryant free agent offers proper now look as if they’re amongst this decade’s worst. Rizzo is a three-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover, Schwarber a two-time All-Star. The distinction sorta jogs my memory of that between Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, each of whom are fondly recalled, albeit moreso in some quarters than in others.

Andy: Hello Jay, thanks for the chat. What are your ideas on ESPN opting out of the MLB media rights deal?

Jay Jaffe: I believe the 2 sides aren’t achieved with one another, and as I used to be typing my reply I spotted i’d already answered a really comparable q final week. So:

Whereas there are different alternate options for MLB to stream/air video games through Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I believe that the 2 sides will in all probability discover a smaller deal that retains them working collectively in some capability. I do assume, as famous within the clip that I posted (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/put up/3liwqrrulvs24), that this doesn’t bode nicely for the house owners’ quest to broaden the playoffs, as a result of ESPN doesn’t appear so within the added stock.

War2d2: Piggybacking on the query about story sorts and linking to my remark about “most memorable” mid-2010s Cubs, I’d like to see you and Longenhagen do a long-long-term retrospective on draft or prospect lessons, one thing like a 15- or 20-years again. Getting the mixed perspective of the man that covers the begins of careers with the man that covers the ends of them can be /chef’s kiss.

Jay Jaffe: Famous! These form of seems to be again are enjoyable however they take up some bandwidth for Eric, who carries a heavy load with our prospect protection

Lebron: Will we ever see Ohtani steal 50 once more? Or was that only a one time factor when he couldn’t pitch?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt we’ll see it once more. All that operating and sliding takes a bodily toll that Ohtani and the Dodgers aren’t looking forward to him to match if he’s additionally pitching, and he’s in all probability going to lose about 100 PA to days off after beginning as nicely, that means fewer alternatives to steal bases.

Talfred: Surveying numerous fan websites, I see some frequent tropes for commerce proposals: my crew’s 3-WAR participant and two 1-WAR gamers for the opposite crew’s famous person, my crew’s washed-up participant will go on a scorching streak and we’ll promote excessive, commerce my crew’s deadweight contract for “some pitching”, and so on. Do you might have any you possibly can add?

Jay Jaffe: My crew’s flailing prospect or simply wants a change of surroundings to unlock his blue-chip stage expertise. The tomato can in the back of the rotation is a reliable no. 4 starter in a pitchers’ park.

Henry Dodger: Having two groups taking part in their dwelling video games in minor-league parks goes to be bizarre. Do you assume you’ll get to see any common season video games in both stadium?

Jay Jaffe: No. I’m not touring to Florida on this present political setting and Sacramento isn’t among the many prime 10 locations I’d hit if I had every week in California.

Jeremy: IIRC, debuting within the main leagues at age 20 or youthful is a reasonably respectable predictor of a HoF profession. Is that prone to change in future as the sport tendencies youthful?

Jay Jaffe: Not appreciably as a result of gamers debuting by 20 stay a rarity and we’re not seeing something within the pattern that means a break from enterprise as traditional.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: forgive the dearth of formatting right here however after I break that right into a rolling three-year common I don’t see an enormous upward pattern.

Jay Jaffe:

One thing intelligent: Is there a non-zero likelihood Tatis Jr. makes the HoF or has that ship sailed?

Jay Jaffe: “By no means” and “eternally” are very lengthy instances  — one cause why we should always by no means rule out Rose or Bonds or A-Rod winding up in Cooperstown. We haven’t seen a participant suspended for PEDs wind up within the Corridor of Fame however provided that Tatis is simply 26, it’s in all probability 20 years earlier than he’s a viable candidate and loads can occur between every now and then.

Bosoxforlife: If a HOF candidate hangs on too lengthy does that impact his credentials in a significant means. Arenado is on my thoughts.

Jay Jaffe: It’d sluggish a participant’s path to election but when he’s adequate he’ll seemingly get in through one route or one other. And I don’t fear a lot about Arenado, who’s nonetheless above average-ish (2.4 and a pair of.5 bWAR in previously two seasons) and above the Corridor peak commonplace.

Fay Vincent: Do you assume we ever get one other fan’s commish like Vincent? May you see gamers or paying followers ever get a say in commissioner like all star voting?

Jay Jaffe: The day after Hell freezes over, maybe. No person is placing management of a $12 billion a 12 months trade instantly within the fingers of anyone however anyone within the vest pocket of the billionaires who stand to revenue. To assume in any other case is hopelessly naive, sorry.

Grandpaboy: Will the Cubs’ failure to signal or commerce for a playoff-quality SP go down as one of many greatest whiffs of this offseason? I don’t perceive why they’d make a “go for it!” commerce for Tucker and never double down.

Jay Jaffe: Their stopping quick after dealing for Tucker stays a headscratcher and but so typical of their post-2016 logic. It stands out as a notable whiff in a winnable division.

Henry Dodger: I missed your writing on Dave Parker making the Corridor. As a lot enjoyable as I had watching him as a child, I by no means considered him as a HOFer. Super three-year peak however not sufficient in any other case.

Jay Jaffe: Right here’s my profile of Parker https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-classic-baseball-era-committee-candid…. I don’t assume I knew sufficient in regards to the Corridor to think about him in these phrases when he was at his peak. I don’t assume he’s an excellent alternative primarily based on his superior stats, but when he’s getting in, I’d choose he lives to expertise it moderately than getting in posthumously à la Dick Allen.

Giancarlo runs like he’s sporting denims: Ought to the Yankees have introduced in one other 3B/2B? Depth seems to be mild?

Jay Jaffe: Peraza is out of choices and I believe they nonetheless like him sufficient to choose him to an out of doors acquisition. however sure, they’re nonetheless skinny

WTF: As somebody with ADHD, Brian Cashman appears to exhibit a standard symptom of being unable to complete a job that’s largely full.

His job after all, is construct an entire roster. Two years in the past it was no left fielder. Final 12 months it was no third baseman. This 12 months, additionally no third baseman.

What provides? Can the Yankees docs not assist him get the appropriate meds?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s silly as hell to deduce anyone’s medical situation primarily based upon the public-facing side of a job the place 90% of what goes on isn’t public.

Jay Jaffe: Hal Steinbrenner units the finances, Cashman has to work inside that. If the finances doesn’t enable for including an enormous identify third baseman, the Yankees must work from inside whereas hoping the proprietor exhibits some flexibility in July if that’s nonetheless the best space of want.

Buddy Boy: Would you might have voted Bud Selig into the HOF? Steroid commish appears much like steroid gamers to me.

Jay Jaffe: no, I wouldn’t have voted for him.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t have voted for any commissioner for the Corridor besides possibly Completely happy Chandler, who oversaw integration by going towards the wishes of 14 out of 16 house owners (the Dodgers and Cleveland’s Invoice Veeck being the exceptions)

Giancarlo runs like he’s sporting denims: Do you assume MLB growth will make the commerce deadline extra thrilling? I used to be towards growth till the expanded playoffs created a sellers market each summer time.

Jay Jaffe: Meh, no. Expanded playoffs has watered down the commerce deadline already and I don’t assume including groups and spots goes to enhance that.

JD Vance: At all times depend on Jay to carry up his political views unprompted

Jay Jaffe: Democracy is crumbling round us, an unelected Nazi is operating rampant by means of our infrastructure, our president has began a commerce battle with large tariffs and aligned himself with a Russian dictator, social safety is being dismantled, and idiots assume it’s cool to faux to be Nazi simps like J.D. Vance. However positive, I’m the one citing my political views unprompted.

NYY: Yanks almost certainly to go for Vlad, Tucker, or Murakami subsequent offseason in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a terrific sense of Murakami’s strengths and weaknesses. of these three I discover Tucker probably the most interesting and assume Vladito’s profile creates too excessive a threat for it to make sense to win a bidding battle.

Bosoxforlife: Let me second the query from I’m the Walrus. These 3 2nd basemen have been the gold commonplace all through their careers. I admit to being very biased and sometimes refer the the HOF because the Corridor of Offense. I see nice hitters with little else get in, however very good all-around gamers who have been one of the best at their positions get snubbed always.

Jay Jaffe: it’s far simpler to go by the simply measurable numbers, whether or not we’re speaking about conventional offensive stats or Gold Glove wins. Gamers with broader units of expertise which can be much less measurable are much less usually duly rewarded. We see that time and again in Corridor voting historical past, although we’ve no less than been in a position to right a few of the extra evident injustices previously couple of many years.

WinTwins0410: Jay, can I ask you about Invoice Dahlen? I do know you’ve written about him together with IIRC within the Casebook. However I’m extra fascinated about what’s occurred to him extra not too long ago.  Within the Vets’ committees circa 2007-2016, he commonly made the poll for his period, and truly did nicely on these ballots, scoring 50%-60%.  Now, he didn’t even make the 2025 Period committee poll, and on the earlier one (2021 for 2022), he received “lower than,” votes-wise.  However in case you return to 2016 (when he received 8 out of 16 votes, thus 50%) and earlier, Dahlen did loads higher on small committees. And but — he scores nice on superior stats. What do you assume it’s right here? Do you assume 1) his time is just too far gone, 2) he wasn’t memorable sufficient in what he did for his achievements to final, 3) baseball from that period was simply plain completely different and never similar to right this moment; 4) he doesn’t have any loud advocates and/or nobody cares about that period; 5) it’s the regulation of small numbers or a sure randomness, or 6) is it one thing else?  What do you assume?

Jay Jaffe: I believe Dahlen’s window has handed. The change in Period Committee format that brings Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black candidates into the candidate pool whereas decreasing ballots from 10 candidates to eight makes it tougher to get placement, and tougher to border Dahlen as the obvious sufferer of some injustice or oversight. He’s additionally a moderately unsavory character, with a few of his traits — his playing and a home violence allegation, most notably — tougher to miss given current voting tendencies.

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, that’s all I’ve received time for this week. Thanks a lot for stopping by, we’ll do that once more quickly.