Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/19/24

Dan Szymborski: Chat Time Nice Motion Copter Ardour Justice GO!!!!!

Champdo: Possibilities Parker Meadows performs this properly subsequent season?

Dan Szymborski: Depends upon what you name properly!

Dan Szymborski: However ZiPS does have him as much as 2.3 WAR in like 540 PA

Dan Szymborski: That he *seems* to be a minimum of a light constructive in CF actually makes him playable

Visitor: Who’s the most important sleeper prospect for 2025 season primarily based on ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: If you wish to go REALLY deep, ZiPS is more and more seeing Shay Whitcomb attention-grabbing, although it’s arduous to name him a prospect

Dan Szymborski: One prospect that has moved up fairly a bit is Joe Mack

Dan Szymborski: Jared Serna’s projections have moved fairly a bit

Eric: Hello Dan!  Congrats on dropping 51 lbs.  I’ve dropped round 30 lbs over the previous yr and I’m questioning if you happen to really feel like you might have misplaced lean muscle mass from consuming each different day.  I’m doing intermittent fasting myself and am looking for the optimum interval that maximizes weight reduction and minimizes muscle loss.

Dan Szymborski: Contemplating how a lot of my weight is from ingesting an excessive amount of beer and sitting round, I’m undecided I had that a lot muscle mass to lose

Dan Szymborski: However I don’t really feel any weaker. And nonetheless have fairly a bit extra to lose

rockie street: why not FIP- for WAR as an alternative of Fip?  Looks like homer park elements are so various that will make extra sense.

Dan Szymborski: I do know ZiPS has particular person FIP park elements

Dan Szymborski: It would simply be a case of stat overload. Now we have a lot already

Jason N: What does an Arraez extension appear to be?  This dude fascinates me – he’s enjoyable, he’s an all-star, about to interrupt some batting title data, and actually overrated.  I’d wish to see the Padres prolong him however at one thing nearer to his actual worth vs. a reputation-enhanced worth.

Dan Szymborski: I assume I can open up that one since I don’t have any particular plans to write down a chunk on him within the close to future

RAGBRAI: Checklist just a few over performers and some below performers out of your projections from final spring.

Dan Szymborski: I did an entire piece on the ZiPS movers!

Dan Szymborski: These are inevitably individuals overperforming/underperforming

Dan Szymborski: I would do one other replace after the season, however I’m undecided about it

Dan Szymborski: since I already did one in July, and I don’t wish to repeat a few of these customary “tentpole” items because it feels form of lazy

Dan Szymborski: and actually, for one thing like simply seeing who *did* overperform/underperform, you possibly can nonetheless obtain preseason projections and examine fairly simply, so it appears a bit lazy to do an article for one thing that somebody can do in 5 minutes

Dan Szymborski: Or, I coudl merely be misreading what individuals wish to learn from me, which is actually doable

man: what does zips say about 2027 walcott vs de vries?

Dan Szymborski: A minimum of for the second, it’s going to choose Walcott as he’s barely farther forward within the “queue”

Nate: Did Michael Massey curse the Royals by hitting that fowl throughout batting apply

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t the Diamondbacks win the WS the yr Randy Johnson killed the fowl?

Dk: 4 groups for 3 wild card spots within the nl your intestine feeling on who makes  it?

Dan Szymborski: Intestine I feel it’s Mets

Nicely-Beered Englishman: White Sox tracker. They should go:
8-1 to be higher than the 03 Tigers
5-4 or worse to have probably the most losses because the Cleveland Spiders
2-7 or worse to have the worst win % because the Cleveland Spiders
1-8 to achieve 125

Zach: What occurred to Nolan Jones this yr? Not that I believed he was going to be a star or a foundational piece, however after final yr, it appeared cheap to assume he’d be a strong participant to flip to some contender down the street.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t…know? His barrels simply disappeared. It’s nearly like there’s a mechanical problem

Dan Szymborski: Like 2023 was principally per how he was hitting

Visitor: Who’s long run participant comp for Jackson Merrill?

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, since I’ve ZiPS open now, his prime comp in ZiPS just isn’t good (Wealthy Coggins) but it surely will get method higher from there, with the following comps being Willie Davis, Vlad Sr., Jesus Alou, Reggie Smith, Tommy Davis, Vada Pinson, Grady Sizemore

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely suggests 4/70 for Arraez masking subsequent yr and first three free company

Dan Szymborski: His 2B defensive projection is -36 runs over the 4 years, which actually hurts

dcejoseph: For those who had been the Padres, what can be your most popular first spherical matchup?

Dan Szymborski: Arizona possibly? Arizona’s weak spot, front-end SP, is magnified a bit in a postseason format

Dan Szymborski: and rolling Stop, King, Darvish could give them finest likelihood to cease Arizona offense

The one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: This isn’t an consuming Thursday

TW: It looks like there’s an enormous profit to (1) getting to decide on any reliever to face the highest of the opposing staff’s lineup and (2) getting to decide on the primary pocket of opposing hitters confronted by your personal beginning pitcher/bulk man. If I used to be a supervisor, I really feel like I’d wish to use openers for any of my under common beginning pitchers (e.g., my 4/5 starters), supplied I’ve sufficient leverage arms within the pen to cowl each the start and finish of video games. Is there a motive aside from defending SP egos why extra groups don’t do that?

Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, managing is a LOT of managing individuals

Dan Szymborski: the query is how a lot of a bonus do you actually get

Dan Szymborski: Baseball isn’t actually a sport the place you possibly can carve out huge tactical edges, so it’s a must to ask your self if the juice is definitely worth the squeeze

AJ Hinch: Indians and Twins used Clase and Duran within the ninth final night time in a tie sport. Suppose there’s any benefit to groups saving their highest leverage man for the tenth?

Dan Szymborski: I personally take the high-leverage scenario that exists now over one that will exist later

Dan Szymborski: there’s much less margin for error with a one-run lead than a tie sport

Lavendar: is atlantas Marcell Ozuna possibility choice actually so apparent? Jorge Soler is assured one other 2yrs on the similar $16m Ozuna is. hes terrible within the OF, however most likely higher than Ozuna, and Acuñas most likely gonna want dh time, proper? i dont wanna lose Ozunas bat, however that Soler commerce isnt wanting good proper now, and im undecided how had been gonna make this work.

Dan Szymborski: I feel you’re overthinking it

Dan Szymborski: withj the $1m buyout, it’s principally a 1/15 choice, and that’s a straightforward one

Visitor: Who’s probably the most underrated participant on the nationals?

Dan Szymborski: Jacob Younger possibly?

Alan Holst: Hello. Thanks for the chat! Nice web site. I particularly like your further plus stats. I do have 3 points I want to tackle. (1) Am I lacking tips on how to do it, or why don’t you might have  leaderboards that combibne pitching and batting? (2) I feel any Defensive WAR is fuzzy, however fWAR for catchers is certainly too speculative. Catcher protection is extraordinarily necessary, however the quantifiable metrics are inadequate to justify the impression it has on participant scores. (3) I perceive the necessity for promoting, however the pop ups at FanGraphs usually are not simply annoying, they typically make it arduous to navigate. Thanks once more for the chat, and your fabulous web site.

Dan Szymborski: I simply don’t assume we’ve had a whole lot of demand for mixed pitching/batting leaderboards

Dan Szymborski: fWAR for catchers could also be speculative, but it surely’s speculative in that there could also be features lacking, not that there’s something flawed with the present stuff

Dan Szymborski: and also you principally have your finest mannequin of protection otherwise you’re merely not giving any worth statistic to catchers

Dan Szymborski: as for promoting, that’s an ongoing problem, which is why we’re transferring to a metered paywall. we wish to get away from the horrible adverts

Austin Wells: Am I an actual RoY candidate or only a product of Yankees media?

Dan Szymborski: eral

Dan Szymborski: actual

Josh: Tiger or Twins to make playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Tigers

Matan: Hey Dan. In the identical vein of under-performers, are the White Sox (to this point) probably the most unlikely underperforming staff in ZiPS historical past?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: in the event that they end at 40, that’s a 23 sport underperformance

Dan Szymborski: There’s a -30 (2018 Orioles)

Dan Szymborski: A -24 (2017 Giants)

Dan Szymborski: and one other -23 (2005 Dodgers)

Mark M: What ought to the Cubs do on the infield subsequent yr with Matt Shaw needing a spot to play?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs commerce Hoerner for a necessity this offseason and I’m undecided that’s not the perfect thought

Dan Szymborski: Particularly because it looks like Bellinger gained’t choose out

Dan Szymborski: if Bellinger opted out, you can see one of many infielders find yourself in a nook, however him staying makes that difficult

Visitor: Michael Toglia escape subsequent yr?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say no

Dan Szymborski: He’s not that younger and his résumé is weak

Insert Witty Title Right here: Ideas on BanananananaBall? Simply learn the guide, it was attention-grabbing and appeared Globetrotter-esque.

Dan Szymborski: My data depth on the Savannah Bananas just isn’t that deep

Sirras: @Alan Holst – Could I like to recommend turning into a member and having fun with an ad-free expertise?

Jonathan: Out of curiosity, does ZiPS use stuff like EV, LA, spin/motion traits, and so on. for minor league gamers in AAA (the place the HawkEye information are publicly out there)?  For those who had entry to those information for all minor leaguers (or, for instance, had free entry to TrackMan information for all minor leaguers and will do a barely outdated model of StatCast), do you assume incorporating them for A+ hitters and AA hitters/pitchers would add worth to ZiPS’ projections?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does use statcast information for minors and has for some time

Dan Szymborski: There’s no stuff side in ZiPS proper now. Working alone ZiPS mannequin is a long-term venture of mine, and it’s nothing I’m snug incorporating now

Dan Szymborski: I don’t wish to throw issues within the mannequin till issues are completely examined, and the method of including issues to ZiPS is years

Fordy: Are there any important modifications in Willy Adames’ long-term projections in comparison with final Could?

Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I simply closed ZiPS!

Dan Szymborski: I assume I shoudl have left it open

Dan Szymborski: reopning it

Dan Szymborski: OK, as of proper now (or, although 9/17 extra precisely), Adames have a five-year WAR projection of 17.2 WAR. Lemme test Could now

Dan Szymborski: It was 16.0 in Could

Dan Szymborski: Could fifteenth run

Dan Szymborski: and 16.3 initially of the season

Dan Szymborski: I assume you didn’t imply final Could as in 2023?

Please Anwser dan: Greatest jake within the mlb is it burger?

Dan Szymborski: Amongst Jakes, I’d take Cronenworth and The over Burger

Dan Szymborski: McCarthy too

Dan Szymborski: most likely Irvin

Phil: How has Ohtani’s projection for subsequent yr modified with the yr he has been having?

Dan Szymborski: He’s gone up like 1.5 WAR in 2025 I feel

Ryan S: So long as we’re doing participant comps for Jacksons, who’re Chourio’s prime comps at this level?

Dan Szymborski: dangit guys

Dan Szymborski: Reggie Smith, Jose Cardenal, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis, Rocco Baldelli, Claudell Washington, Paul Blair, Vada PInson, Rick Manning, Amos Otis, Ellis Valentine, Bobby Tolan, Ken Griffey Jr, Grady Zizemore

Dan Szymborski: zizemore?

trav: On the Whitcomb sleeper remark, how does he get day-after-day enjoying time? provided that they let Bregman stroll? he does appear to be he has good plate self-discipline and batted ball high quality.

Dan Szymborski: He might be a utility man and sneak a bunch of AB that method

Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood: Did the O’s sneak a “backsies” clause within the Trevor Rodgers commerce they may activate?

Dan Szymborski: I feel he at all times extra of a 2025/2026 acquisition

Dan Szymborski: didn’t I do a kind of this yr?

Triple Crown: With ~10 video games left and 0.010 factors of BA seperating Witt and Choose, is there any likelihood of a triple crown?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’d guess…15%?

LostatSea: Hypothetically say the methods we view RV, WAR, efficiency, and so on. are all flawed, the place would the ‘gap’ in our fashions be (what space of the sport/gamers efficiency are we below or over-valuing)?

Dan Szymborski: I feel holes are RELATIVELY small

Dan Szymborski: a bunch of small little holes I feel are extra seemingly

Dan Szymborski: like how are we evaluating baserunning, how will we worth flexibility, and so on

Dan Szymborski: We’ve gotten many of the low hanging fruit

Will: Many followers consider that hitters with good plate self-discipline are likely to age extra gracefully. Have you ever ever investigated this?

Dan Szymborski: Getting older doesn’t actually match into neat barrels

Dan Szymborski: Although that will be a *basic* assertion that isn’t dangerous

Dan Szymborski: bBut there’s nothing like X participant will age properly and Y participant won’t

Dan Szymborski: It’s like these three month climate projections

Dan Szymborski: the place there is perhaps one thing atmospheric and X state has a 60% likelihood of exceeding their regular temeprature or precipitation by X

Archer: Colt Keith is matching his projection for this yr, however arrived there in a a lot completely different method than I’d have anticipated (common bat, above common protection)

Dan Szymborski: He mounted his gradual begin properly

AltuveBot3k: Seems like Altuve will fall wanting 200 hits this yr, however a reasonably respectable marketing campaign on that entrance. Are you able to replace odds of his attending to 3k?

Dan Szymborski: 44% proper now

Gasblaster: So, what sport have you ever been enjoying?

Dan Szymborski: Simply completed Trails By way of Dawn II: Crimson Sin with the fan translation

Dan Szymborski: and that is peak MLB the Present season for me

Dan Szymborski: The previous sport wasn’t tremendous well-received because it didn’t actually push the underlying plot too far, however I loved the sport’s plot in and of itself

Fordy: Lindor is locked for the HOF. However how seemingly Correa is to make the HOF.

Dan Szymborski: I feel he will get there

Doug: Does Ha Seong Kim get a qualifying provide? Does he reject it?

Dan Szymborski: Sure and Sure

Sirras: Who’s a participant you take pleasure in watching due to aesthetics, not due to stats (no matter whether or not or not they’ve good stats)?

Dan Szymborski: Arraez

Kingston: Hey dan Whose the perfect jake in mlb?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, is that this a repeat or did I reply a query about Jakes with out posting the query?

Dan Szymborski: As a result of if I didn’t put up something, that should have sounded batshit insane

Visitor: I averted membership for some time partly as a result of the adverts had been so obtrusive and unnavigable that it nearly felt like blackmail

Dan Szymborski: On the finish of the day, adverts have gotten extra annoying throughout the spectrum

Dan Szymborski: and we both need to generate profits from adverts, generate profits from subscriptions, or not be a going concern

Guardcore Clevelander: Dan, how are the cats?

Dan Szymborski: They’re superb

mmddyyyy: do you journey for work and current at conferences?

Dan Szymborski: I journey at occasions, although I wouldn’t name it a BIG a part of my job

Dan Szymborski: I’ll do panels, however I’m not an enormous presentation man

laughingstock: What, uh, is ZIPS? Just like the underlying mannequin. Is it one huge neural internet? Or a bunch of fashions glued collectively?

Dan Szymborski: At its core, it’s a nonparametric mannequin with an entire bunch of different fashions glued on awkwardly

Dan Szymborski: You can name the entire thing an train in supervised machine studying

Visitor: Apologies if you happen to’ve answered this in earlier chats- how a lot has Vientos improved his long-term outlook per ZiPS? If I keep in mind accurately, ZiPS was extra bullish than others to start with.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume I’ve had any Vientos Qs recently

Dan Szymborski: Dangle on, I didn’t shut ZiPS this time

Dan Szymborski: 10.0 five-year WAR to begin the season, as much as 13.4 now

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Dan – I’m stunned extra individuals aren’t speaking concerning the Tigers. They did the factor everybody at all times says groups out of rivalry ought to do and promoted all their prospects and stopped enjoying their “regular veterans”…and lo and behold, they’re within the thick of the Wild Card race. The best way Hinch and Fetter have managed the pitching employees, turning non-descript AAA arms like Brant Hurter into efficient pitchers racking up the outs…10/10, no notes!

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda humorous they traded considered one of their finest pitchers after which they surged

Dude: Undecided if that is your space of experience however within the final week or so the Yankees have dramatically risen to having the best world collection odds in your playoff predictor.

Dan Szymborski: They’ve, however that’s as a result of the divisional chances have shot up a lot

Dan Szymborski: The completely different in chance between getting a bye and never getting a bye is the most important issue actually

mmddyyyy: How a lot sleep do you get?

Dan Szymborski: In complete, most likely about 7 hours a day

mmddyyyy: Is David Appelman the proprietor?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan: I’ve an curiosity in what advertisers factor is attention-grabbing to Fangraph readers. Sometimes it was troublesome to bodily scroll when the advert was huge however this by no means delayed me greater than a second or two

Dan Szymborski: Most definitely adverts are studying your cookies

Dan Szymborski: So if you happen to get tentacle porn commercials, you must most likely look within the mirror!

OddBall Herrera: Inform me about it, re: adverts.  There’s a lot marketing campaign cash going round that every occasion has paid an intern to comply with me in all places I’m going and whisper slogans in my ear

mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS change when the foundations change?

Dan Szymborski: The place it’s doable

Dan: I actually like the colour blue the seems when a fangraphs chatter posts your query.

Dan Szymborski: My interface doesn’t present that sadly so I’m not fairly certain what it refers to!

Dan Szymborski: I attempt not to have a look at names once I put up questions, so that they bought fortunate!

Apparently Yip Yip: It’s a very nice shade of blue, Dan

Dan Szymborski: In one other shade of blue, it’s time for me to go out from one other episode

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming and see you all subsequent time! And thanks to your assist of FanGraphs