Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s get going; I’m gonna chat for round an hour and a half at the moment however I’d prefer to make it depend

The one who asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: , I’m not truly positive at the moment. Simply obtained again from a working trip (hire a home out within the countryside however then simply work as regular from there, I extremely suggest it)

Ben Clemens: So we’re a bit mild on meals in the home

Ben Clemens: maybe a banh mi takeout

Davy Andrews: Hello Ben. Simply saying hello.

The pirate parrot: Which cruz could have a greater season, Elly or Oneil?

Ben Clemens: Elly for me. Oneil is one other of my fixed participant crushes however I simply can’t recover from how loud Elly’s instruments are, and he made some critical enhancements because the season went on that make me extra assured as nicely

Dennis: If you happen to had been actually Mike Elias writing underneath a pen identify, would you commerce any extra Orioles place gamers for pitching in mild of Bradish’s harm and Means’ rehab setbacks?  I do know spring coaching doesn’t matter (rather a lot) however there’s quite a lot of gamers who look fairly good.

Ben Clemens: I would commerce for some depth at this level. I’ve all the time been a little bit of a Cole Irvin man, although ,to the purpose the place I wrote a LOT about him when the O’s traded for him, and I feel that their larger subject was getting top-end pitching expertise, which they’ve already achieved

Ben Clemens: If it’s feeling like they don’t have sufficient juice after a month or two, there shall be time to commerce for extra pitching

Oh noooo: You assume Yanks gotta signal Snell if Cole’s arm is toast?

Bob: With the harm to Gerrit Cole what do you assume the Yankees will do?

Ben Clemens: We have now quite a lot of questions like this within the queue at the moment

Ben Clemens: I imply…. they’ll panic! This appears very dangerous

Ben Clemens: However I acknowledge that that’s not an actual reply

Ben Clemens: I feel that they’re going to cross their fingers that issues work out roughly okay for Cole, and keep it up with out a lot change

Ben Clemens: If in every week that’s not the case, nicely, then they should start thinking about Snell

Ben Clemens: That stated, I don’t actually purchase the argument that Snell in some way has extra leverage over them and he’ll all of the sudden get the type of deal that wasn’t out there beforehand

Ben Clemens: If Cole is damage, I do assume that the Yankees will simply ignore the luxurious tax penalties and signal a prime starter

Ben Clemens: you don’t commerce for Juan Soto after which not go for it

Baltimoron: Are you able to identify one baseball author you want would write for FanGraphs?

Ben Clemens: Jeff Sullivan if we’re counting former writers

Ben Clemens: Sam Miller and Steve Brown are my two favourite writers/researchers who’re lively proper now, however I don’t know the way reasonable getting them over right here is

Gold Star: How do you assume Mookie Betts, shortstop will work out for the Dodgers? (And why not simply put Rojas there? It’s not just like the group is hurting for offense.)

Anon21: Betts to shortstop appears a bit of wacky. If you happen to’re Dave Roberts, at what level do you prioritize conserving your star in his consolation zone quite than conserving Gavin Lux, profession 99 wRC+ hitter, within the lineup?

Ben Clemens: Right here’s one other query that I’m seeing quite a lot of within the queue

Ben Clemens: so if I didn’t choose your actual spin, possibly I’ll come again to it

Ben Clemens: I feel that when you requested Mookie, he’d favor to play shortstop

Ben Clemens: I additionally don’t purchase the entire ‘eh, the offense is ok’

Ben Clemens: I’d quite have Gavin Lux than Miguel Rojas if my lineup permutations would enable it

Ben Clemens: it appears like they do

Ben Clemens: and I’m positive that in the event that they don’t, the Dodgers will retreat from the plan, however determining a solution to get Lux within the lineup appears veyr sensible to me

bosoxforlife: Are you able to enterprise a guess on the size of the contracts Snell and Montgomery will ultimately get and do you assume the times of 6+ yr offers for pitchers is fading quickly?

Ben Clemens: I feel that they’re each going to signal three-year offers with choose outs after every year

Ben Clemens: and uh, sure, I do assume that’s taking place

TomBruno23: Going to order a type of Rocket Bananas jerseys for your self?

Ben Clemens: I’ve to be sincere: no

Ben Clemens: It’s cool, however I have already got a very good quantity of bananas gear and Im’ not a giant fan of the Rocket as an individual

Ben Clemens: ]immaculate style in final names, although, after all

bosoxforlife: O’Neil hit two scalding rockets within the first two innings yesterday and I nonetheless can’t get sufficient of Elly. I shall be doing quite a lot of channel switching to attempt to seize their AB’s this season

Idiotic Failson: I’ve been listening to hypothesis that the potential Cole harm will increase the possibilities of a Snell signing for the Yankees. Shade me skeptical, I haven’t seen any indication that they’re considering spending twice the quantity required to safe his companies. Do you agree?

Ben Clemens: I suppose I coated this up above however I feel it’s affordable assuming the Cole harm is critical

Ben Clemens: if it’s not, I don’t see it

Me: o/u $40M assured for Snell? (complete, not AAV)

Quadzilla: for all of the expertise and hype round Strider, he will get hit exhausting method an excessive amount of…is he extra of Stop 2.0 with higher ratios than Degrom?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that’s fairly proper, however I’ve by no means been a giant Strider-is-new-deGrom man

Ben Clemens: Folks throw round deGrom comps so liberally

Ben Clemens: some scout stated Cole Ragans was lefty deGrom, like wtf

Ben Clemens: deGrom has a profession 2.53 ERA! Since 2018 it’s 2.08! He’s thrown 400 fewer innings than Gerrit Cole in that point and is 1.3 WAR behind him for first amongst all pitchders

Ben Clemens: like, simply cease making an attempt to say that pitchers who appear fairly good are the following deGrom, nobody is

Refugee: Do you imagine the Lunch Query Asker is one particular person or many individuals who put on the cowl?

Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna pull IP addresses and attempt to discover out or something, and I’m not even positive if I might. I prefer to assume that it’s one particular person largely however that ought to they falter, somebody will step in

Zach: I simply discovered you labored for Goldman and Citadel. I’m curious you probably have any hyperlinks to discussions you’ve had about your earlier work life and the work-life stability trade-off you skilled? To not get into numbers, however presumably you left some huge cash on the desk transferring over to Baseball.

Ben Clemens: , I’m unsure I’ve ever had a very good strong dialogue of that, which suggests I ought to most likely do this. Maybe on FG Audio once we reboot, or possibly a one-off stream or one thing

Ben Clemens: So maintain a pin on this, let’s say, as a result of I’m going to attempt to do one thing about it, however I’ll provide you with a tl;dr

Ben Clemens: I tremendously loved working at each of these locations, I actually liked my coworkers and even administration

Ben Clemens: I do know lots of people who’ve carried on doing it and been very comfortable. I assumed my work-life stability was workable, even, and man do I like making numbers dance round and fixing puzzles

Ben Clemens: I simply wished to do one thing completely different; I used to be already writing about baseball free of charge on a Cardinals weblog, and I didn’t stop specficially to work for FG by any means

Ben Clemens: the truth is, I made up my thoughts to go away earlier than the job I utilized for right here opened up

Ben Clemens: Do what you like and when you cease loving it, contemplate altering what you do can be my recommendation

Ben Clemens: however I actually do need to discuss extra about it. another time!

TomBruno23: Signal Michael Lorenzen depth for pitching and the inevitable Stanton breakdown.

TomBruno23: You’re a St. Louis Cardinals season ticket rep…promote me on leaping on board for 2024.

Ben Clemens: Do you want Ozzie Smith?

Ben Clemens: Don’t child round

Ben Clemens: Come watch Masyn Winn, as a result of his protection goes to be an absolute blast

Ben Clemens: And if there’s one other iconic shortstop in St. Louis, you need to have the ability to inform folks that you simply had been there when he broke in

Cardinals: With their banged up OF, do you see them signing Pham or Duvall?

Ben Clemens: ohhhh man, a Pham reunion would make me very comfortable

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume it’s that doubtless, although, as a result of I actually don’t really feel that they’re hurting for that degree of outfield expertise

Ben Clemens: and it’s simply making a slightly-delayed logjam

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s extra doubtless that they’ll give minor leaguers some run. Have a look at how a lot they let Burleson play final yr

Billy: Why did they’ve to harm Noot. I’m damaged.

Visitor: Two factors: this web site solely has nice writers, however Jeff Sullivan was most likely the very best ever (as a author, anyway). Good of you to single him out.

Ben Clemens: Actually one of many best

TomBruno23: 9 days till actual baseball possibly roughly I can by no means determine huge time zone modifications. Quickly!

Tacoby Bellsbury: Thanks for publishing an article at the moment that didn’t have conclusive outcomes and undermined your speculation in a method. Solution to depart your ego on the door, so to talk.

Ben Clemens: Ooh is it out?

Ben Clemens: I liked this one

Ben Clemens: I used to be sooooo able to say that Kevin Gausman is doing one thing that nobody else is

Ben Clemens: after which whoops, no

Simply learn your article: I actually loved your just-published article–do you assume that one variable that possibly is unattainable to quantify that forestalls clearer patterns from rising within the information is the profit a hitter will get when he is aware of that he has to swing? (It appeared such as you had been accounting for this with the distinction between 1-2 and 2-2 counts, however nonetheless, what’s it value to the hitter to know that if he doesn’t make contact on his subsequent swing, he’s out. In all probability makes a large distinction primarily based on the hitter.

Ben Clemens: Not solely realizing that he has to swing, however understanding that weak contact is healthier than a whiff in a method that isn’t true in a 1-0 depend

TomBruno23: How about Messi not suiting up final night time at house. The place is the outrage? Ooops I is perhaps within the mistaken chat.

Ben Clemens: Messi was on the Oscars

Ben Clemens: nicely, the canine named Messi, not less than, the true MVP in my e book

birds birds birds: Joey Votto has a house, hurray!

Ben Clemens: Actually super

Ben Clemens: I’m rooting for him

Sodo Mojo: Does J.D. Davis to the Mariners make sense if the M’s can get the Giants to take a few of the wage hit?

Ben Clemens: Completely, 100%

Ben Clemens: I’ve to say that seeing J.D. Davis on waivers makes me perceive the Suarez commerce extra

Visitor: I’ve been invited to affix an everyday whist recreation with my father-in-law and a few different 75 yr olds. Have you learnt what a whist is?

Ben Clemens: I don’t however you must play

Ben Clemens: I like enjoying card video games with outdated folks

Ben Clemens: It’s just like the model of my hobbies in at the moment’s world that was out there after they had been children

Ben Clemens: I’ve quite a lot of enjoyable enjoying bridge with my dad and his associates

Nats Fan: Sure/No Will the Nats have the worst document within the NL?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so

Visitor: The Mets are shut sufficient to dominating their division that Snell can be well worth the $80M he would value them for 140 IP at an ERA round 3.9, proper?

Ben Clemens: Laughing emoji

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: truly, Pleasure emoji

Matt: No they imply Cole Ragans is that if deGrom simply began throwing along with his left hand beginning now.

Ben Clemens: ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ben Clemens: Okay now I’m in

birds birds birds: Absolutely Snell/Monty have already got 3 yr offers with opt-outs on the desk to them.  So… they only haven’t personally accepted they’re not getting 5-6 years?  Or they assume they’ll squeeze one other $1-2M on the AAV for the three years?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, one thing like this however I feel leaning in direction of the primary

Nate: do the fangraphs writers ever contemplate impersonating one another within the chats for every week and see who notices

Ben Clemens: Completely not. Let’s go get some Skyline Chili

J: For the document, I’m not the what’s for lunch asker, however I used to be able to ask in the event that they didn’t seem.

Repute: Who’re some low-recognition prospect names which are going to get not less than 250 PAs this yr/contribute on a significant league degree ultimately? Is James Wooden going to play in not less than 80 video games, for instance?

Ben Clemens: Vendor of Wooden getting that many video games, although I actually hope he does

Ben Clemens: this isn’t a spot the place I’m significantly plugged in

Ben Clemens: so I feel I’ll defer this query to individuals who know the ins and outs a bit of bit higher

BiscuitPants: One thing I found whereas perusing the leaderboards is that final yr Corbin Carroll had the second best baserunning season of all time (and the best since 1887!): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&ind=1&sortcol…. Firstly in order for you this as a free article concept go for it lol. I’d like to see any breakdown you are able to do. However second, does Fangraphs have any extra granular information on baserunning to assist perceive this? Or any plans so as to add it? UBR and wGDP are type of a black field to me. (I do know BRef has some event-level stuff on their season web page but it surely’s restricted and exhausting to make use of and none of it flows into their participant pages or leaderboards.)

Ben Clemens: It’s undoubtedly one thing I’m considering writing about. I’ve been which means to look into UBR at a extra granular degree

Ben Clemens: mabye this would be the kick within the butt I would like to start out doing it

GraphsFan: When did your personal baseball enjoying ability max out? Any enjoyable anecdotes out of your enjoying days?

Ben Clemens: what’s surprising?

Ben Clemens: I ended enjoying in little league

Ben Clemens: I performed soccer and basketball and ran observe in highschool, however I used to be by no means any good at baseball

RTJ: Roster Useful resource stunned me after I checked out San Diego this week: Jackson Merrill within the beginning CF spot with nearly 500 at bats. Agree?

Ben Clemens: Let me put it this fashion: Jason is the very best particular person within the trade at determining enjoying time, and he’s additionally the most important Padres fan I do know

Ben Clemens: I might belief his Padres PT projections greater than anybody else’s

wheelhouse: when are the yankees going to commerce Soto

Ben Clemens:

Why not Zoidberg: Any concern concerning the Acuna harm from a fantasy standpoint?

Ben Clemens: In a draft, I’m nonetheless taking him first and never significantly shut

Ben Clemens: I assume that the possibility of decrease steals would erode his worth considerably in an public sale, however I’m not an public sale man

O’s fan: I’m thrilled to even contemplate this, and certain loopy, however is Coby Mayo a greater prospect than Jackson Vacation? What do you see as Holliday’s carrying ability so to talk (in addition to all of them, though none are 70 grades like Mayo’s energy/arm).

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel Holliday’s carrying software is the whole lot. Hit/energy combos at shortstop are so uncommon

Ben Clemens: and to be truthful, I feel that he would possibly find yourself at second or third, I actually like Henderson at brief

Ben Clemens: however yeah, I’d nonetheless take Holliday over Mayo if I had to decide on

Ben Clemens: at, say, 70% confidence

Colton: Seen fairly just a few folks say its the Twins division to lose. I don’t purchase that in any respect, they made no main acquisitions this off season and even misplaced a number of key contributors to their group from final yr. I understand the division total is fairly delicate, however the Twins usually are not an awesome ball membership on paper by any means for my part. Why doesn’t it really feel like different folks see this?

Ben Clemens: I simply disagree with you. I assumed the Twins had been fairly good final yr, they mission nicely once more this yr, and their division is putrid

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume they’re pretty much as good of a group because the AL East squads, which is how they mission for 85 wins in a weak division whereas the Jays mission for 83.5 in a troublesome one. However I don’t know, are the Guardians gonna problem them? The Tigers?

Ben Clemens: Like possibly! Nevertheless it doesn’t really feel like a sensible wager

Visitor: Amongst all certified SP since 1960, deGrom is prime 3 in profession ERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-… his dominance in his wholesome years feels actually underrated.

Ben Clemens: I agree with this

TomBruno23: Winn’s protection shall be a blast and hopefully he isn’t moved to CF so this yr’s Mark Ellis (Brandon Crawford) can play an excessive amount of By no means Overlook Mike Matheny.

Ben Clemens: I can just about assure that that received’t occur

Ben Clemens: I’ll personally tempt Crawford again to the bay with some garlic fries and my epic retelling of his elite pitching look (I used to be strolling out of the stadium and ran again to see him pitch) if he begins consuming into Winn’s shortstop enjoying time

Ben Clemens: Additionally I simply have to indicate you this tweet of his

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna ntake a fast break whereas I dig into it

Ben Clemens: he’s perusing Cardinals prospect twitter and replying to gifs of himself, what a legend

Ben Clemens: additionally the play in that gif is one in every of my favorites, what an absolute madman to even try that throw

Chicago Steve: Is it utterly nuts to counsel Wyatt Langford play some first for the Rangers with Lowe nearly sure to start out the yr on the IL?

Ben Clemens: It’s undoubtedly not nuts

Ben Clemens: their defensive outfield is such a logjam

Kiermaier’s Piercing Inexperienced Eyes: The place between the Montgomery Biscuits and the Rocket Metropolis Trash Pandas ought to the road have been drawn on group names?

Ben Clemens: A lot nearer to trash pandas I feel

Ben Clemens: Montgomery Biscuits is without doubt one of the finest names within the minors

Ben Clemens: you may’t draw the road too near that and find yourself with the pleasant variety of minor league names

Sodo Mojo: If you happen to haven’t performed Splendor Duel but you must the uncommon time a recreation improves after they make a two particular person version.

Ben Clemens: I haven’t, however I’ll look into it for positive

Ben Clemens: I performed a ton of Cascadia final week with my spouse (we had been within the woods so it felt acceptable) and man, it’s nice as two participant

harry: How are you feeling about Alec Burleson? Do you purchase his good peripherals from final yr? Does Donovan get any enjoying time within the outfield forward of him?

Ben Clemens: It pains me b/c Burly was successful of a few of my minor league information scouting, however I don’t assume it’s working

Ben Clemens: positive, his xwOBA was higher than his wOBA, however he wasn’t making impression contact on the fee I’d hope for along with his defensive expertise

Ben Clemens: and he wasn’t strolling sufficient to make up for it

deBride: As an 18 yr outdated in A ball Dwight Gooden threw 191 IP with 10 CG and 6 SHO racking up a fair 300 Okay and 112 BB within the course of. No query, that’s simply freaking insane. Then once more I suppose 1983 is over 40 years in the past now so…

Ben Clemens: that’s nice

Ben Clemens: Now this one I’m fairly positive is a number of folks

deBride: What number of extra innings will Jacob deGrom throw?

Ben Clemens: In his profession? I’m a relentless deGrom optimist so I’m gonna say 500

Dmx: Whist is alot like bridge. Each a ton of enjoyable!

Ben Clemens: there you’ve it

Nats Fan: How a lot of a darkhorse is the Tigers?

Colton: That’s truthful, I simply don’t assume they’re getting wherever near the manufacturing they obtained from Grey and Maeda down the stretch with a mixture of Desclafani, Paddack and Varland they usually nonetheless have some questions in manufacturing from quite a lot of guys of their offense for my part. Guess we’ll see the way it performs out over the following couple month! However I undoubtedly assume the Tigers are sleepers for that division.

Ben Clemens: They’re undoubtedly my second option to win the division

Ben Clemens: a fast have a look at playing markets has them within the +350 to +400 area, so like 20-25% space. We have now them at 18%. I feel I like them extra within the 30% vary, so I suppose that makes them darkish horses

bosoxforlife: Watching Brandon Crawford in something however a Giants uniform is one thing I by no means wished to see, like Dewey Evans spending a yr with the Orioles after he was washed up. It was not a fairly sight.

Ben Clemens: It’s going to be very unusual. Crawford grew up round right here evne

Ben Clemens: I can not inform you what number of pleasant outdated women I’ve seen carrying Crawford gear and completely ignoring the remainder of the Giants to root for him

Visitor: in 2021, deGrom was heading for a season which might have surpassed Gibson in 1968 when it comes to ERA+

Ben Clemens: You don’t have to inform me that

Matt Damon: SINCE. ENO. SARRIS.

Ben Clemens: Can’t argue with that

todd: JD Davis launched and SFG doesn’t have to pay wage? How does that work, I assumed it was agreed upon already.

Ben Clemens: So, his wage was not a contract, it was determined in arbitration

Ben Clemens: The way in which this works is kinda bizarre

Ben Clemens: and I’m going to do my finest to clarify it. Arb contracts don’t lock in till Opening Day. Till then, it’is one thing like 30 days of pay assured (45 if it’s very near the season)

Ben Clemens: so the brand new CBA removed that rule for gamers who don’t go to a listening to

Ben Clemens: however Davis went to a listening to, which signifies that his wage doesn’t assure till opening day

birds birds birds: So anybody who goes to arbitration will be launched and never be paid?? Wow, discuss a large menace to the participant in the event that they don’t comply with the membership’s arbitration supply.

Magoo: Biggio quietly turning his profession round?  I see a late blooming Ben Zobrist growing, very precious to a contending membership.

Ben Clemens: I’ve been a giant Biggio man for a very long time

Ben Clemens: so I’m in!

Dylan: Ideas on Astros probabilities on remaining a pennant contender in 2024.

Derek: Are you enjoying Ottoneu this yr once more? If that’s the case, how is/are the group/s wanting?

Ben Clemens: I’m enjoying, however I’m not feeling superb about my group. I’m kinda caught in a didn’t rebuild sufficient rut

Ben Clemens: My finest gamers are BWJ, Semien, Alonso, Luis Robert, McLain, MH2, Will Smith.

Ben Clemens: Oh and Framber/Buehler/Bello/Ashcraft/Helsley on the opposite facet

Ben Clemens: I simply really feel like I’m a bit of bit brief on impression expertise

G4: Do you assume Farhan deliberately went to a listening to on Davis because of this? Even when he suspected SF would lose the battle of wage alternate?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, this looks like too high-level of considering for a marginal acquire. They didn’t know they had been gonna signal Chapman

bosoxforlife: Within the battle to lose essentially the most video games this yr have the White Sox dropped to the extent of the A’s?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’ll take the Sox underneath over the A’s underneath any day, which is surprising to say

farm: Have you ever performed Stardew Valley? How concerning the board recreation model?

Ben Clemens: No to each. That stated, I walked by my native recreation retailer they usually had the board recreation of their show case. It seems AMAZING

RTJ: The most efficient beginning pitcher on the Purple Sox this yr shall be:

Michael Nelson Trout: Trout: Is he nonetheless nice, or simply superb?

Ben Clemens: Ugh, I feel he’s simply superb

TomBruno23: Pitching season strains from that Gooden Period are nice. Bobby Witt Jr.’s dad by 97 for Oklahoma in 1985 with 78 BB and 118 Okay and Texas nonetheless took him third total then after 35 AA innings with 44 BB and 39 Okay he opens 1986 within the MLB rotation. With predictable outcomes.

bosoxforlife: Always remember {that a} participant can have three 80 instruments, but when the hit software is a 30 then he isn’t going to be a significant league common. Does the identify Elly DeLaCruz, with 80 energy, 80 velocity and 80 arm, come to thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Hit software is unquestionably a very powerful software. That stated, I feel Elly is well going to be a significant league common so possibly not the very best exmaple

Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: How usually do the Yankees go for a one-year rental who’s very more likely to take a look at free company? In all probability not fairly often

Ben Clemens: They used to pretty usually

Alanis M.: my first large hit was “You Ottoneu”

Ben Clemens: and I’m right here to remind you of the mess you left once you went away

Ben Clemens: is what I advised Craig Edwards after I inherited his group

J: Folks gotta cease throwing out Zobrist comparisons for merely good utility gamers. It massively underrates somebody who put up an 8.7 win season and persistently produced at an all star degree.

Ben Clemens: how about Child Zobrist

Dodgers Blue: RE Cardinals outfield nagging harm state of affairs: you wouldn’t contemplate signing Michael Taylor to play CF till Edman is prepared – and even perhaps past that?  You possibly can additionally transfer Taylor over to RF and use Walker as your DH.

Ben Clemens: MAT is somebody I’d signal

Ben Clemens: as a result of he brings a special ability and would nonetheless be helpful within the Playing cards’ plans after the opposite guys return

Ben Clemens: so completely agreed right here, and I feel it’s a totally completely different concept than Pham or Duvall

bosoxforlife: I can’t shake this thought that retains sneaking into my consciousness that the Reds are going to only sweep away the NL Central this season.

bosoxforlife: I used to be fortunate sufficient to comply with my childhood dream nearly to the brass ring. I used to be ok to make a number of begins on the PGA Tour however by no means questioned my choice even after I got here up a gnat’s eyelash brief. My recommendation to each younger particular person on this weblog is Climb Each Mountain doing one thing you like.

Ben Clemens: Two completely different messages from the identical particular person, as a result of I forgot to answer to the primary

Ben Clemens: uh, yeah, I feel the Reds are attention-grabbing and under-regarded

Max: Does it hassle you as a lot because it does me when an article says one thing like “the Dodgers spent a billion {dollars} in the course of the offseason.”? They didn’t spend a billion {dollars}, they dedicated to spending an sum of money over a reasonably lengthy time period. very completely different.

Ben Clemens: I imply, it hadn’t bothered me

Ben Clemens: and I agree it’s foolish

Ben Clemens: however I don’t assume I’ll stand up previous marginally aggravated about it

Ben Clemens: there are simply far dumber issues that the baseball media do

Ben Clemens: even counting me in that group

Andrew: What do you count on from Yainer Diaz in 2024? I’m skeptical of him having an .850-ish OPS once more if he by no means walks, however he’s probably an enormous offensive improve at C (Maldy was terrible).

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s going to be a borderline prime 10 catcher instantly

Refugee: +1 for null speculation

Patrick Dubuque at BP just lately revealed an article that concluded no type of doubles is predictable year-to-year. It’s not a horny final result, but it surely’s actual analysis!

Ben Clemens: We do a good quantity of that right here. I prefer to assume that Meg’s management has given us much more confidence to jot down stuff that’s attention-grabbing even when the conclusions are disappointing

Order within the Court docket: So Aaron Choose is being shut down for a few days as a result of, in keeping with Boone, he’s “mid-spring beat up”, but this comes not lengthy after Choose himself stated his toe must be managed for the remainder of his profession.  Do you assume it’s the toe that flared up?  Might this be extra critical than it appears?  Boy, not an awesome day for Yankee information.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, undoubtedly appears worrisome to me

Tacoby Bellsbury: Joey Gallo most likely had a 25 hit software and most undoubtedly was a major-league common. 80 recreation energy and 70 protection covers up an entire lot of sins.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s a very good instance

KG: Is Kevin Goldstein nonetheless with the Twins entrance workplace?  His perception into the interior workings of groups was all the time a enjoyable learn right here.  Do you all be in contact?

Ben Clemens: He’s, and I do discuss to him once in a while. In all probability most regularly about White Lotus, if I’m being sincere with you

Ben Clemens: or typically after I write a pleasant/imply article concerning the Twins he shall be mock elated/aggravated

bosoxforlife: Ortiz and Ramirez or Choose and Soto. Who do need?

Ben Clemens: I’m a hopeless Juan Soto fan so Soto and Choose

Ben Clemens: however man, it’s powerful

RTJ: that’s like after I purchase take-out with my bank card. I didn’t spend $40, I agreed to spend $40 in a month or so in return for meals proper now

Ben Clemens: Lol that’s a technique of it for positive

Ben Clemens: however I feel it’s extra like a mortgage nearly

Ben Clemens: you didn’t spend 400k on that home

Ben Clemens: you agreed to pay again 400k over a very long time

Ben Clemens: and sure, 400k, what am i, residing previously?

BenZo: Child Zobrist wants not less than a hoop or CS MVP

J: Child Zobrist = Craig Counsell?

Greg: Truthful to say that J.D. Davis’s agent dropped the ball right here? Dropping that assure looks like an excessive amount of threat to tackle simply to combat over a mere $350K in arb.

Ben Clemens: Yeah. Like, I didn’t understand the way in which this labored precisely, however I’m not a significant league agent

Ben Clemens: I’m truly unsure whether or not it’s well worth the threat

Ben Clemens: 350k will not be nothing

Ben Clemens: Like, is that this taking place to five% of gamers who go to arb? No

Ben Clemens: but when they didn’t discuss concerning the dangers and rewards, it’s not nice

The 6ix: Is there any analysis on the in-season efficiency of pitchers who report a useless arm or some basic arm soreness in spring?

Ben Clemens: No however I’d be considering studying it if there have been

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Visitor: After listening to Ben Lindbergh on Successfully Wild, I hear all your chat feedback in my head in his voice.  Completely bizarre, or completely regular?

Ben Clemens: Completely regular

Ben Clemens: I hear quite a lot of issues in Ben’s voice, I’ve been listening to EW for a decade at this level

Princess Leia: Who TF is Mary Kate Olsen?

Ben Clemens: Oh proper, you’re not from round right here

Ben Clemens: Alderaan didn’t get Full Home reruns?

Nats Fan: just a few groups might nonetheless use a strong Dh.  JD Davis will discover a house.

Ben Clemens: Yeah there’s no query of him not discovering a job someplace. It’s all concerning the wage

Ben Clemens: once you’re his threat/reward

Darryl Vanilla: Have you ever tried Forbidden Jungle but?

Ben Clemens: No however I’m completely going to. I actually favored Desert and Island

Princess Leia: Spring coaching, and all that.. however my goodness, Luis Gil’s fastball seems sensational at the moment

GraphsFan: How usually do you sit down to look at / observe / scout a full recreation? Do you skip round video games through MLB.television? Or do the field scores + Baseball Savant + Twitter inform you the whole lot it’s good to know?

Ben Clemens: I’m not a scout. I do watch a ton of video games, although

Ben Clemens: a whole recreation? Eh, possibly not THAT usually, I do prefer to flit round

Ben Clemens: I additionally go to quite a lot of Giants video games in the course of the season

Ben Clemens: I get quite a lot of data from field scores, savant, and twitter, that’s for positive. However significantly for writing 5 Issues, it’s a must to be watching the sport, not simply seeing a field rating

Ben Clemens: so lots of these “issues” are little observations quite than scoreline stats

Greg: “5% of those that go to arb” doesn’t appear to be the right method to consider it although. I can have a look at the typical chance of being attacked by a shark however that doesn’t contemplate whether or not my shopper is a surfer or a landlocked 80 yr outdated. However I do know that about my shopper, or I ought to.

Ben Clemens: Proper, yeah, I’m not saying that the reply is clearly a technique or one other. However I don’t assume it’s as straightforward as saying ‘eh 350k is nothing, get a assure’

Jake S: If you happen to might get everybody at FanGraphs collectively for one recreation night time, what would you choose? I performed Blood on the Clocktower for the primary time this weekend and I really feel like Dan’s vitality would have been unimaginable.

Ben Clemens: oh man, I’m my board recreation shelf and I’ve an awesome concept. Rush MD. It’s real-time primarily based and there’s quite a lot of yelling which sounds excellent for hijinks

Tim: Orioles prospect not named Jackson Holliday who’s going to have the most important impression this season?

Ben Clemens: Westburg if he nonetheless counts

Ben Clemens: Mayo in any other case

Wigglebot23: Is there any benefit to the concept that relaxation weakens prime groups within the Division Collection? Or is it only a fluke?

Ben Clemens: Dan and I each wrote about this final yr and neither of us discovered something

Ben Clemens: we used extra-rest video games going again a very long time

Ben Clemens: Wild Card period, possibly?

wheelhouse: extra doubtless: the yankees all of the sudden imagine including Snell is value including 210% of no matter his market fee is to their payroll plus tax invoice, or hal steinbrenner says “Oh thank god, an excuse to suck! What a aid!” and trades Soto et al

Ben Clemens: I imply, Soto is simply not getting traded

Krusty: Let’s say a membership determined to pick and develop its beginning pitchers for endurance and sturdiness — they need to create a brand new crop of Workhorses. The aim can be not less than 00s kinds of workloads(Halladay/Johnson/Sabathia, and many others., 35ish GS, 250+IP, 7-10+ CG) and, ideally, extra like 80s-90s ranges.

A sequence of interrelated questions: do you assume it *might* be achieved within the fashionable recreation? Wouldn’t it simply be the outdated means of choosing Massive Robust Guys after which seeing which arms survive getting slagged? Wouldn’t it work? Would any of these pitchers be any good?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’d work however that you simply’d blow out quite a lot of arms round the way in which. One factor I’m unsure about is whether or not they’d actually be capable to get guys to purchase in on not being max effort

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s your responsible music pleasure?

Ben Clemens: Neil Cicierega

Ben Clemens: I like mashups

Ben Clemens: b/c I like pop music however I additionally love new music

Ben Clemens: so listening to new music being made utilizing pop hooks I like? Superb

Key Flaw: As a fan of each Stardew Valley and board video games, I’m right here to inform you that the board recreation is de facto dangerous, each as a board recreation and as a simulation of Stardew Valley.

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s so preeeeeettty

Princess Leia: Ben, outdated buddy… Jedi grasp… buddy, ol pal. What’s Full Home?

And yeah, I’m critical. By no means seen it.

Star Full Home Wars: The younglings to Anakin, “Have Mercy”

Colton: I don’t just like the man, however I really feel like Bauer is extra more likely to find yourself with the Yankees than Snell proper now due to the wage/luxurious tax facet. Am I loopy?

Ben Clemens: I feel you might be, I don’t assume it’s taking place with out some extra contrition on Bauer’s half and I imply……

Damaged Bat: Cole’s’ harm.. all of the sudden Boston seems very aggressive don’t they? Is Rafaela going to make their pitching that a lot better due to his glove? Guess they want they’d Sale now…

Ben Clemens: I’m about as within the Sox as I used to be yesterday

Ben Clemens: which is to say, I assumed that they had been in it earlier than Giolito obtained damage, and now I feel they’re solely in it in the event that they get some nice outcomes on the pitching facet

Ben Clemens: It’d be one factor if the Yankees had been the one group forward of them within the ALE pecking order but it surely’s legit everybody

Ben Clemens: the Yankees completed fourth within the division final yr! Their ace getting damage all of the sudden boosts the SOx?

J: Fantasy Q: 5×5 13-team blended. Would you retain Ragans within the ninth spherical (FAAB pickup) or Esteury Ruiz within the thirteenth? Can have one different keeper, shall be Elly within the twenty fifth.

Ben Clemens: Ragans by a mile

Ben Clemens: I get it, these steals are superb, however I feel it’s a must to fear about enjoying time with Ruiz not less than a bit of

Jared: Any pitchers you might be enthusiastic about who added new pitches this offseason?

Ben Clemens: I’m holding off judgment on the Strider curveball b/c I don’t fairly get it

Ben Clemens: So how about this: Erick Fedde’s sweeper

Visitor: Would you say the Dodgers or the Braves have the next ceiling? Purely hypothetical

Ben Clemens: Braves I feel. I feel that they’ve extra gamers who I have a look at and go ‘oh he might be a famous person and isn’t but’

Ben Clemens: I feel the Dodgers have the next flooring htough

Damaged Bat: Love your insights. Why accomplish that many pitchers report arm soreness as ST begins and endures? Dont they throw away from ST like in Jan. To prepare? Looks like they wait till ST after which the accidents happen?

Ben Clemens: Certain does appear that method. I don’t have any particular grime on this although

diadem: Tyler Black’s numbers appear so a lot better than Ortiz. What are Black’s probabilities for impactful PT this yr?

Ben Clemens: I imply, his offensive numbers are higher however he’s a foul defender as a substitute of a stellar one

Ben Clemens: that stated, I’m larger on him than Eric is

Ben Clemens: It looks like just about everyone seems to be? He made most different prime 100’s

Ben Clemens: I like Ortiz extra b/c I feel that infield protection is a superb carrying software, whereas Black doesn’t have an apparent defensive house. BUt I feel they’re not less than considerably shut, significantly for the reason that Brewers will doubtless want some assist at first base

Marshall: I feel final season you stated in a chat that you simply thought Mookie can be the very best SS in baseball if he performed there full time. Now that he’s completely (for now) a SS, do you continue to assume he’ll be the very best?

Ben Clemens: No, I feel that was if he’d been doing it for a very long time. He’s additionally 31 now, and protection tends to peak a bit earlier. That stated, I feel he’ll be a comfortably plus defender at brief

Michael: Would JD Davis repair the Blue Jays offseason?

Ben Clemens: no however they need to completely add him if they’ll

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Simply handed alongside the working trip suggestion to the spouse and he or she liked it. Thanks!

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I can not suggest this extremely sufficient

Ben Clemens: We prefer to go locations which are within the woods, as a result of it’s simply exhausting to really feel stressed about work when you look exterior your own home and it’s simply all nature round

Ben Clemens: However no matter your comfortable place is usually works

Ben Clemens: We’re truly wanting into shopping for a spot so we will do it extra regularly, I’m only a a lot happier particular person after I’m out within the woods (and I’m already a contented particular person normally)

Key Flaw: You could have 80 factors to place into each hit software and energy for a prospect, how do you distribute them? 20/60, 30/50, 40/40?

Ben Clemens: so let’s say I’ve 80 factors so as to add from the 20 baseline

Ben Clemens: I feel I’d go 65/55 hit/energy

Ben Clemens: b/c each 70/50 and 60/60 sounded okay to me so I break up the distinction

Ken: Do you assume the Royals will get near 81 wins this yr?  In a weak division, I really feel they need to get fairly shut

Ben Clemens: Yeah, pretty shut

Ben Clemens: I feel that their pitching additions actually assistance on that entrance

Ben Clemens: I feel they find yourself forward of the Guardians, highly regarded take I feel

heyhey: Would you quite have Bo Bichette for 10/350 and Vlad goes to the Yankees or the alternative?

Ben Clemens: Bo and provides Vlad to the Yankees

Ben Clemens: as a long-term card-carrying ‘vlad is only a good first baseman not an mvp’ member, I would like the more durable defensive place man

Marshall: RE: Mookie at shortstop, I used to be referring to finest total, not finest defender.

Ben Clemens: Proper now I feel he’s the very best shortstop

Tim: Orioles roster wanting CROWDED with the way in which a few of the children are enjoying. If you happen to needed to guess at the moment, which prospects break camp with the membership? Holliday? Cowser? Kjerstad? Stowers? Mayo?

Ben Clemens: Wow, that’s a troublesome one. I’m not plugged into the ins and outs of every day roster stuff just like the beat writers are, so I’m unsure you must take my phrase for it, however I’d go along with Holliday almost certainly, Cowser subsequent, then Mayo

Ken: Is Volpe going to be in the identical dialog as Elly?

Ben Clemens: Certain, “let’s discuss some younger shortstops”

i’m simply Kenley Jansen: Greinke gonna be a mid-season pickup?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I don’t know! I need Greinke on my group as a fan

Ben Clemens: I really don’t know the way a lot he has left, or what he’s seemed like in exercises

Grandal Richuk: If Mookie finally ends up enjoying SS full time, is he the MVP favourite if the offense stays regular? Has anybody received MVP as an outfielder and an infielder?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the reply to the second query however I’ve to imagine no

Ben Clemens: I feel that I’d nonetheless take Acuna as the favourite, and Mookie is second proper now

Ben Clemens: that sounds about proper to me

Farhandrew Zaidman: If we’re speaking about younger shortstops, what’s your handicap for the probabilities McLain finally ends up with the extra productive profession over Elly?

Ben Clemens: I’m a giant McLain fan too

Ben Clemens: I pushed him and Elly each maybe irresponsibly excessive in my commerce worth rankings final yr

These was one!: I’m fairly positive Robin Yount did the MVP IF/OF factor.

Ben Clemens: Oh hey, you might be appropriate

Ben Clemens: I didn’t understand he received the ’89 MVP, sorry to my Brewers fan family members

Marshall: Can a group ever have “sufficient” offense in order that it is sensible to punt offense at a place in favor of protection? In different phrases, are there nonlinearities that make rating a further run much less precious than saving a further run?

Ben Clemens: Fantastic query that I don’t assume I’ve sufficient time to dig into right here

Ben Clemens: however I feel the reply is fairly near no

Ben Clemens: non-linearity type of works the opposite method

Ben Clemens: the higher the remainder of yhour offense is, the extra PA

Greg: Hank Greenberg additionally did it, first base and left subject

Ben Clemens: okay effective, I used to be mistaken

bosoxforlife: What do the Orioles do? So many younger gamers who seem like they belong and so few positions. I feel Mike Elias is afraid of constructing the following “Jeff Bagwell for …….. ” and getting nothing in return.

Ben Clemens: Look, respect to them for buying and selling for Corbin Burnes. That’s the type of commerce I’ve been saying they need to make. I feel that they’ll find yourself making a deadline deal this yr to ease a few of the prospect stress, but when I had been them, I’d be keen to attend a bit of bit to see who pans out and who doesn’t now

Danny Valencia: are you a believer within the Dominic Canzone breakout? (>2.0fWAR)

Ben Clemens: However I’ll say, that’s a low bar to clear. Spike some defensive metrics and I might see it

Wigglebot23: Did Gabriel Moreno deserve the Gold Gloves for NL catcher?

Ben Clemens: No, I feel that Patrick Bailey did

Ben Clemens: however Moreno had an superior defensive season, it’s not like he had no enterprise being within the working

Farhandrew Zaidman: Earlier than/After July 1 – when will the Dodgers make a change at beginning SS?

Ben Clemens: Actually, I feel after, I feel they’ll simply find yourself with this working in some way

Visitor: How about Harper successful an MVP at first base this yr?  We might have *two* gamers nabbing the IN/OF MVP duo.

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume he’s that more likely to win an MVP at this level in his profession, however stranger issues have completely occurred

Ben Clemens: Alright, I’m gonna go attempt to scrounge up some lunch

Ben Clemens: want me luck, man who asks the lunch query

Ben Clemens: Thanks for chatting with me at the moment, everybody, and have a beautiful week