With one recreation to win and the world championship on the road, Japan supervisor Hideki Kuriyama known as on left-hander Shōta Imanaga to start out the decisive recreation of the World Baseball Traditional. Availability and pitch rely clearly restricted Kuriyama’s choices, however nonetheless, it’s fairly an honor, contemplating Japan’s pitching employees additionally included Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and wunderkind Roki Sasaki.
The Cubs should have been impressed, as a result of on Monday evening Bob Nightengale reported that Chicago had reached an settlement with the two-time NPB All-Star. Imanaga, who had beforehand been linked with the Giants, will make at the least $30 million over two years, with choices and incentives that might convey the entire worth of the deal to $80 million over an extended (however nonetheless as-yet-unspecified) time period. Jon Heyman known as the deal “difficult.”
Nevertheless a lot Imanaga’s contract will find yourself confounding the bookkeepers, it gained’t be official till he passes a bodily. That have to be accomplished earlier than Imanaga’s posting window expires Thursday afternoon.
Final week, I famous that whereas the Cubs had made the splashiest pre-Ohtani transfer of the offseason by smuggling Craig Counsell out of Milwaukee beneath the gasoline tank of an Isetta bubble automotive, Jed Hoyer’s outfit had been quiet since. With a view to mount a reputable problem for the NL Central, the Cubs wanted to exchange the outgoing Jeimer Candelario, Marcus Stroman, and Cody Bellinger, add a primary baseman, and possibly choose up one other beginning pitcher apart from.
It is a excellent begin, each when it comes to publicity and manufacturing.
The 30-year-old lefty was no. 12 on our High 50 Free Brokers checklist, one spot behind Stroman. Even aside from the WBC, Imanaga had a formidable remaining yr in Japan, with a 2.80 ERA, 174 strikeouts, and 24 walks over 148 innings in 22 Central League begins.
At 5-foot-10, 175 kilos, Imanaga comes with related questions on his physicality as Yamamoto, however Imanaga’s age and lack of upper-level fastball velocity (92 mph) clarify why Yamamoto ended up being assured about 10 instances as a lot cash.
Imanaga has been a front-line starter in Japan for greater than half a decade now, and is coming off 5 straight seasons with an ERA of three.23 or much less. That and his worldwide success paint a fairly compelling statistical monitor file, however he presents an uncommon physique kind for a mid-rotation MLB starter. Imanaga is brief sufficient to play Tom Cruise’s love curiosity with some intelligent camerawork. Can a left-handed pitcher that measurement maintain as much as an MLB starter’s workload?
“Certain, Bobby Shantz did,” I assumed to myself at first. Clearly we’re in search of a extra modern comparability. Listed dimensions for athletes is usually a little imprecise, however within the Wild Card period, 14 left-handed starters listed at beneath 6-foot have thrown 150 or extra innings in a season. That is far sufficient up to now that Fernando Valenzuela exhibits up on the checklist, however satirically that’s place to start out: A plus athlete who generated energy from an uncommon supply.
The brief reply is that it’s potential, if the pitcher in query is both athlete or a Houston Astro. (Mike Hampton is probably the most prolific brief lefty, and Wandy Rodriguez and Framber Valdez additionally make the checklist.)
Imanaga is sufficiently athletic to make it work; he’s flexible and will get good leg drive. He employs a Johnny Cueto-style hesitation transfer on the prime of his leg kick, and whereas the 2 couldn’t look any extra totally different bodily, if you need instance of a brief pitcher with a robust decrease half who dominated over an enormous workload regardless of missing ultimate velo, Cueto is an apparent instance.
Imanaga’s greatest secondary pitch is a low-80s slider; he additionally throws a changeup and a sluggish curve. Of their matchup on the WBC, Trout doubled off the curveball, although it was a Texas Leaguer that Trout legged out quite than a scalding line drive off the wall. Having a pitch that sluggish will assist Imanaga maintain hitters off his low-90s fastball, however the curveball is perhaps so sluggish it’s simply identifiable out of his hand.
However Imanaga’s greatest attribute isn’t his stuff, however his command, which is super. By mixing and finding, Imanaga was in a position to induce not simply weak contact, which you would possibly count on from a finesse left-hander, however spectacular strikeout numbers as effectively.
Assuming that Imanaga can maintain as much as the pains of a full MLB workload, the largest excellent query is what sort of contact he’ll permit. Maybe unsurprisingly for a brief pitcher with a low launch who doesn’t throw a sinker or splitter (Imanaga should’ve been the one man on Staff Japan who didn’t throw a plus-plus splitter), he permits lots of contact within the air.
Eric Longenhagen pointed this out in his High 50 writeup: Imanaga’s 8.3% HR/FB ratio seems tame by MLB requirements, however the HR/FB charge in Japan is about half what it’s on this aspect of the Pacific. And whereas NPB is extra fly ball-prone than MLB basically, Imanaga’s 58% fly ball charge was nonetheless nearly 30% increased than league common. Even adjusting for that, we will count on Imanaga to be some of the fly ball-prone starters in baseball.
That clearly reduces the advantages of taking part in in entrance of the Dansby Swanson–Nico Hoerner double play mixture… and I can see by the seems in your faces that you simply’re remembering the place the Cubs play their dwelling video games.
How large an issue will that be? There’s no option to know till we see Imanaga undergo the league a pair instances. However assuming a assured wage of $15 million a yr over two years, that’s an appropriate threat. Getting any extra certainty — Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Grey earlier than he signed — would’ve value almost twice as a lot cash over as a lot as thrice the contract size. It’s an appropriate threat, if that is merely the primary of a sequence of huge free agent signings.
Assuming a contract AAV of about $15 million for tax functions, the Imanaga signing leaves the Cubs with a bit over $35 million to spend earlier than they even hit the bottom aggressive stability tax threshold. That’s sufficient area to signal a primary baseman, perhaps even sufficient to additionally get one of many remaining prime 10 free brokers in the event that they time the market proper. And if the Cubs are keen to pay just a bit bit in tax, there’s sufficient expertise left available on the market to shut up these remaining roster holes with ease.
There’s nonetheless an extended option to go earlier than the Cubs return to their earlier standing as simple NL Central favorites, however it is a good begin.