You’re Most likely Underrating Dylan Lee

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Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Photographs

One in all my favourite article genres to provide is “you’ve by no means heard of this reliever, however he’s nice now.” Typically talking, it’s both some dude who has been within the majors for some time however lately discovered one thing new, or somebody who burst onto the scene with some quirky pitch, supply, or method. At the moment, although, I’m making an attempt a barely completely different variation. You in all probability have heard of Dylan Lee. He’s appeared within the majors for six straight years and racked up greater than 200 innings pitched in that point. He’s not doing something significantly new in 2026. However he’s nice, and in some way we’ve mainly by no means written about him, so I feel it’s time to rectify that shortcoming.

In 19 2/3 innings of labor this yr coming into Wednesday, Lee has posted a 0.92 ERA and 1.08 FIP. He’s putting out a 3rd of the batters he faces and barely strolling anybody. And whereas nobody is that good in the long term, Lee’s profession stats are very stable, as properly. He has a profession 2.65 ERA and a 3.24 FIP (2.92 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 2.79 SIERA). Certain, it’s over solely 224 innings, however these numbers are very good. He has the Tenth-best ERA of any reliever since his debut, and each different run prevention estimator is equally located towards the highest of the desk.

The only solution to describe Lee’s sport is that he throws a gyro slider as usually as doable, plus a fastball and changeup when he wants to modify issues up. He’s throwing that slider 56% of the time this yr, which is narrowly a profession excessive, however he’s thrown 52.5% sliders in his profession, so that is hardly an entire sea change. He leans particularly laborious on the slider in opposition to lefties, utilizing it greater than three quarters of the time. However even in opposition to righties, he throws 46% sliders and spots his different two pitches off of his breaking ball.

Whereas sweeping sliders are all the trend today, Lee doesn’t throw one. His slider is most exceptional for the way little it breaks. He’s not fairly Tatsuya Imai on the market, however in 2025, his common slider moved about an inch to his arm facet, the “unsuitable manner.” This yr thus far, it’s shifting about an inch to his glove facet. In contrast to many sluggish, straight sliders, Lee’s has a tiny little bit of induced vertical break; the pitch falls about 4 inches much less on its flight to the plate than your common mid-80s gyro slider.

That sounds horrible, proper? “Hey, I throw my slider sort of sluggish, and likewise it doesn’t slide, and likewise it doesn’t have any downward break.” Anyway, on an unrelated observe, right here’s a leaderboard from 2026:

Prime Slider Swinging Strike Charges, 2026

Huh.


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Pitching fashions aren’t fairly positive what to do with Lee’s slider, and I sympathize with their plight. PitchingBot thinks it’s a hair beneath common. Stuff+ thinks it’s a hair above common. Neither sees it as among the best sliders within the sport. However the fashions are simply doing fancy variations of sample matching, and Lee’s slider doesn’t behave very like anybody else’s. The closest match might be Robbie Ray, one other lefty with a cool, model-defying slider. Brock Burke has an analogous providing. However many pitchers throwing this model of gyro slider are slinging it from low arm slots and utilizing it to enhance sinkers and sweepers that transfer a ton horizontally. Many extra are throwing it from a really excessive slot, complementing a north/south arsenal. However Lee’s sits in a bizarre center floor, and that strangeness issues.

His slider’s quirkiness isn’t apparently evident to the attention. Once I watch this video, all I see is a lazy breaking ball:

However lots of Lee’s sliders seem like that, and lots of them get related outcomes. The numbers nearly don’t make sense, and never in an “it’s nonetheless solely Might 14” manner. Over the past three years, Lee has thrown 337 sliders proper down the center of the plate. He’s drawing whiffs 24.1% of the time when batters swing at them, the second-best mark in baseball behind Steven Okert, one other lefty with an oddball slider. Even when opponents make contact with these sluggish, low-movement, middle-middle cookies, they’re producing an xwOBACON beneath league common. On equally situated sliders, 88% of pitchers are permitting hard-hit contact extra regularly than Lee.

In different phrases, Lee’s slider has been elite throughout a multi-year pattern, even when he locates it about as poorly as you may. That brings me to Lee’s different superpower: He has pinpoint command. There are a couple of methods to measure command, all of them approximate. You possibly can use pitch fashions – Lee’s 64 PitchingBot Command is Tenth-best amongst pitchers with 10 or extra innings pitched this yr, and fifteenth over the past three years (minimal 100 innings). In the event you’re extra of a Stuff+ man, Lee’s 112 Location+ is tied for nineteenth in baseball this yr and fifty fifth (out of 358) over the past three years. The fashions suppose Lee’s command is someplace between fairly good and elite, and higher this yr than earlier than.

Don’t wish to base your opinion of a pitcher’s command on a mannequin? Perhaps you’d desire stroll fee. Lee has walked two batters this yr, a 2.9% stroll fee. He has a profession 5.8% mark. Solely six relievers in all of baseball have executed higher than that since his debut, and solely Raisel Iglesias pairs a decrease stroll fee with the next strikeout fee. Lee hits the sides of the zone greater than common and misses badly lower than common. Whereas Lee’s slider is difficult to place in context, his command is fairly simple: It’s nice throughout a number of methods of measuring it.

Lee’s different choices complement his slider properly. His fastball can also be pretty north/south, significantly after accounting for his arm angle. His changeup, which he solely throws to righties, fades and rides in order that it diverges closely from his slider even with related velocity:

Between the wonderful command and the three outlier pitches that batters merely don’t see fairly often, Lee is placing opponents in persistently troublesome positions. Every little thing is painted. Nothing strikes the suitable manner. Imagine it or not, Lee is fifth amongst all relievers in swinging strike fee since he debuted. The fellows forward of him are Mason Miller, Josh Hader, Edwin Díaz, and Andrés Muñoz. Is that one thing you is likely to be eager about?

In truth, the strangest factor about Lee’s statistical report is that he isn’t pitching in excessive leverage as a lot as you’d anticipate. In 2026, 4 Braves relievers are coming into in higher-leverage conditions on common. He’s but to have a season the place he’s one of many group’s prime two aid choices. He has precisely two profession saves. He’s Tenth in reliever ERA since his debut and 73rd in common leverage when he enters the sport.

I feel Atlanta is simply nice with that. Whereas Lee hasn’t displayed huge platoon splits, he’s a lefty who depends on a breaking ball as his main pitch, and the Braves have persistently invested in elite relievers to anchor their bullpen. Preserving Lee as a 3rd banana with outrageously good outcomes lets the group deploy him flexibly and likewise retains his outlier sport from overexposure.

Don’t let his position and his weirdness deceive you, although. Lee’s pitches may not soar off the web page, however his outcomes do. Not many good pitchers reach the identical manner as Lee, however that’s a giant a part of why it really works so properly. He’s been doing it lengthy sufficient now that you may’t actually argue with the observe report. I may not have the ability to let you know exactly why Lee is so robust to hit – however I’m fairly sure that he’s robust to hit. What a delightfully bizarre and efficient reliever.



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