Max Muncy Is Sizzling. The Dodgers Are Not.

This one’s going to be a bit little bit of a mashup. Final weekend, I used to be watching a Dodgers sport when Max Muncy made a slick play over at third base. Then he mashed a two-run dwelling run to place the Dodgers on the scoreboard. That received me to serious about how spectacular Muncy’s profession has been – by no means the prime attraction on a Los Angeles staff that has employed lots of baseball’s finest throughout its reign atop the league, however all the time a key cog.

However a Muncy article wasn’t the one concept I left that sport with. His two-run homer? It solely served to slender the Dodgers’ deficit from 5 to 3. The Braves tacked on extra runs late and gained 7-2 for a second straight day, taking two out of three from the two-time defending champs. Then the lowly Giants got here to city and cut up a four-game set. The Los Angeles offense, particularly, has been moribund of late. That appeared like an article matter all by itself. But when two articles are good, one article slamming collectively factors from each is healthier (he stated hopefully).

I don’t suppose there’s something sneaky or missed about Muncy’s wonderful begin to the 2026 season. When he involves the plate, he does the identical factor each night time: He tries to go away the park. Which means he’s in search of pitches to clobber, and in addition making an attempt to clobber these pitches. The trying half, mixed along with his nice batting eye, means loads of walks and loads of deep counts. The “making an attempt to clobber” half means loads of whiffs and loads of scorched baseballs. It’s an method that’s straightforward to explain, nevertheless it’s devilishly tough in observe to strike the appropriate steadiness between choice and aggression.

Muncy is now in his ninth season of discovering that steadiness. His consistency is exceptional – yr in and yr out he’s posted a double-digit stroll fee, a strikeout fee between 20-27%, and a batting line within the neighborhood of a 130 wRC+. His wRC+ is twenty first amongst certified hitters over that span, wedged between Corridor of Fame hopefuls Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt. His batting line is a lifeless ringer for Kyle Schwarber’s. This yr, Muncy is off to a wonderful begin, on tempo for his finest yr since 2018. It’s not a lot that he’s discovered a brand new gear; you’d have a tough time differentiating between his 2025 and 2026 part statistics. That’s mainly my level, although. What he’s doing isn’t shocking, as a result of he’s made it commonplace. He’s hit roughly like this for a decade.

That’s spectacular sufficient by itself, nevertheless it’s not probably the most spectacular feat Muncy has pulled off in his tenure on the Dodgers. When he joined the staff, he was defensively restricted. He performed his pure place, first base, the vast majority of the time. He additionally performed second base when the Dodgers have been making an attempt to get extra offense on the sector, nevertheless it was the shift-enabled second base function that doesn’t actually exist anymore. It concerned loads of standing in shallow proper area with a rangy shortstop and a slid-over third baseman to cowl the dust.

When the Dodgers signed Freddie Freeman, although, Muncy couldn’t play first anymore. However as a substitute of shifting him to DH (it was the primary yr of the common DH) or again to second, the place the overshift was solely a yr away from being banned, he moved to 3rd base. That was partially out of necessity – an growing old and injured Justin Turner performed solely 66 video games on the scorching nook, his lowest whole since 2014 (excluding 2020, for the pedants on the market). However the change was a revelation. Someway Muncy, who had seemed like a position-less slugger for many of his skilled tenure, was as much as the duty.

If you happen to’re a DRS aficionado, Muncy is 20 runs above common since he moved over to 3rd, the fifth-best defensive third baseman in that span. Statcast’s FRV is way extra measured; it has Muncy as a -5 defender in that span, although a scratch defender from 2024 onwards. I’ve beforehand discovered that FRV works a bit higher within the infield, however each metrics have predictive worth; in different phrases, you gained’t go too flawed considering Muncy is common or a bit above.

That might be a exceptional feat in and of itself. From age 24, his large league debut, via age 30, Muncy performed solely about 700 innings at third, and was detached at it. Then at age 31, when most gamers transfer down the defensive spectrum, he shifted to a harder place and held his personal. He’s 35 now, the oldest main third baseman within the league. The opposite guys above 30 are principally defensive wizards: Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, José Ramírez, Matt Chapman, and Alex Bregman are the subsequent 5 oldest. This isn’t regular.

If the Dodgers listed their gamers like a film poster, I’m not even positive Muncy can be well-known sufficient to make the reduce. They boast three MVPs, a two-time Cy Younger winner, the highest-paid pitcher in baseball historical past, and the participant with the best ever annual (non-deferred) wage. Muncy can be on the “additionally that includes” line at finest, and even that may be a stretch contemplating how embellished his compatriots are. However his contributions to their success are large. The Dodgers are previous, and their roster isn’t notably versatile. But when your 35-year-old slugger can deal with third base, each of these limitations ease considerably. How do they preserve squeezing extra juice into their lineup? It’s a minimum of partially as a result of Muncy lets them.

That brings us again to that lineup and its aforementioned run of poor type. The Dodgers surged out of the gates, scoring six runs per sport en path to one of the best file in baseball on April 20. That day featured a 12-3 victory over the Rockies in Denver – one of the best offense in one of the best place for offense. However since then, the Dodgers have been moribund. They’re scoring solely 3.8 runs per sport, the sixth-worst mark within the majors. Whereas their run prevention has nonetheless been very good (3.5 runs allowed per sport, fifth finest), they’ve scuffled to a 10-12 file. Neglect one of the best file in baseball; they’re locked in a decent race with the Padres for the NL West lead.

I’ll begin my analysis of their hunch by telling you one individual to not blame: Max Muncy. You know the way he’s produced a metronomic 130 wRC+ in his lengthy Dodgers profession? His wRC+ over this stretch has been 123. He and Kyle Tucker (122 wRC+) have stored the bases juiced. Andy Pages (108 wRC+, 4 homers) has helped clear these bases. The remainder of the squad, nevertheless, has hit one large hunch unexpectedly.

These three MVPs who type the spine of the offense? Shohei Ohtani is hitting .203/.329/.333 on this downswing, for a 92 wRC+. It’s one of many worst 20-game hitting stretches of his Dodgers profession – he had two related spans in 2024. Whether or not it’s a coincidence or not, Ohtani has been dominant on the mound over that stretch, and the Dodgers have began to provide him extra days off round his begins because of this. He didn’t hit both of the final two days – he pitched on Wednesday and struck out 10 over seven shutout innings, then received a full relaxation day.

It’s not a lot that Ohtani has by no means slumped like this earlier than – as I discussed, he had some lulls in 2024. However he wasn’t pitching in 2024, and it wouldn’t precisely be unfathomable if the workload related to being the most effective starters in baseball acts as a drag on his offensive numbers. Whether or not that’s true or not goes to be extremely tough to untangle mathematically, even when considered from a 40,000-foot, career-long stage. As Ohtani himself put it, “Each my scorching streaks and slumps are a part of who I’m as a participant. What’s vital is having the ability to preserve good type for a protracted time period.”

That’s a really self-aware assertion, not all the time a given in skilled sports activities, the place success usually goes hand in hand with an irrational perception in your self. But it surely’s simply true! Ohtani has had skids like this earlier than, and he certainly will once more. Nice gamers aren’t immune from unhealthy stretches – they only have them much less steadily, and even their lows aren’t fairly so low as your common hitter. That’s why they’re nice.

The Dodgers are constructed to resist a chilly stretch from Ohtani, however Freeman has been simply as chilly. He’s posted an 88 wRC+ over the identical stretch, batting .244/.326/.329, with just one dwelling run and 4 doubles in 92 plate appearances. In the meantime, Mookie Betts mainly hasn’t even been on the sector – he missed nearly all of this span recovering from an indirect pressure earlier than returning Monday.

The excellent news is Freeman’s tough patch is already over. He’s been scorching because the begin of Might, in truth, with a 137 wRC+. These 5 extra-base hits I discussed? They’ve all are available that span. Attempting to slice hitter efficiency into arbitrary home windows will result in humorous outcomes like that. However within the combination, Freeman has been roughly impartial for the Dodgers of their current malaise – one very chilly stretch and one scorching one. That’s a giant change from his typical type. Final yr, these three have been a collective 96 runs above common offensively (principally Ohtani and Freeman, to be honest). Throughout this downstretch, they’ve been two runs under common. That’s loads of runs to make up!

It’s not all of the runs, although. These offensive contributions have been value about 0.6 runs per sport. The Dodgers are slumping meaningfully more durable than that. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández, All-Star batters each, are off to poor begins to the season, and each have been under common throughout this downturn. Smith seems to have angered the batted ball luck gods. He’s within the eightieth percentile for barrel fee and xwOBA and the 77th for strikeout fee; he’s additionally strolling greater than common, albeit lower than he did in his superlative 2025 season. His timing seems to be barely off, however that’s simply my making normal statements. If you happen to made me describe precisely what is flawed, I don’t suppose I may. These are simply the conventional fluctuations for him; he had a hunch this unhealthy final yr en path to a 153 wRC+, and a far deeper one in 2024. Catching is difficult! Typically the blokes who do it don’t hit for a couple of weeks. It occurs.

Hernández’s chilly stretch is barely scarier. You won’t have observed it because the Dodgers romped their technique to a second straight World Collection final yr, however he declined considerably from his first season in Dodger blue. He was mainly common offensively, and performed his typical blah outfield protection en path to a 0.6-WAR season. He’s modified his method considerably – fewer swings, slower swings, higher contact fee, worse energy output – however the change hasn’t been nice for his total numbers. He’s by no means hit for much less extra-base energy, barreled the ball up much less steadily, or made so little onerous contact. He’s additionally nonetheless putting out 28% of the time. The changes he’s made may work if he slashed his strikeout fee by a ton, however this model of Hernández seems to be extra like a fourth outfielder than a Dwelling Run Derby champion. Alternatively, in case you’re in search of an indication that nothing is flawed, how about this? Between the time I began and completed this text, the Dodgers performed one sport. Smith and Hernández mixed for 3 extra-base hits in a 5-2 victory.

Even the supporting gamers for the Dodgers have struggled. Dalton Speeding burst onto the scene this yr and nonetheless sports activities a jaw-dropping 189 wRC+. However that’s as a result of he posted a 388 wRC+ (!!!) in his first 28 plate appearances. Since April 20, he’s hitting .179/.304/.179 in 46 instances up. Hyeseong Kim, who performed almost day by day in Betts’ absence, has adopted an analogous path: 155 wRC+ in his first 10 video games, 72 wRC+ since. If you happen to’re questioning how the Dodgers have been scoring six runs per sport within the early going, it certainly helped that these two guys have been enjoying out of their minds, however actuality has reasserted itself. Silly regression towards the imply. I’m positive each have higher days forward – Ohtani’s clever phrases about scorching streaks and slumps apply to everybody – however the timing of their ups and downs has exacerbated the run-scoring whiplash.

A tiny little bit of this downswing could be attributed to their opponents. This lineup has confronted pitchers with an combination 2026 ERA of three.90 over this stretch – 3.95 in case you exclude their video games in opposition to the Dodgers. That’s a hair higher than league common, however hardly an insurmountable impediment. It’s been extra about Los Angeles’ lack of manufacturing than any elite opposition.

So am I right here to bury the Dodgers? Not even a bit bit. If you happen to go in search of catastrophe in each hunch, you’re going to be upset. The Dodgers had two non-overlapping 20-game stretches of scoring 4 or fewer runs per sport final yr – and completed second in baseball in runs scored. They’d a prolonged stretch under 4 runs a sport in 2024 en route to a different second-place end in scoring. They’re nonetheless sixth in runs scored this yr! In the meantime, their pitching workers has allowed the third-fewest runs. I’m pretty sure that the Dodgers are going to be OK.

Baseball is simply bizarre this manner. Typically what occurs as we speak is a superb predictor of what is going to occur tomorrow. Typically it’s not even shut. However nothing at present afflicting the Dodgers feels structural. Whereas lots of their finest hitters are struggling for the time being, they’re not doing so in the identical means, or for a similar causes. And what may very well be extra Dodgers than Max Muncy strolling and slugging his means via all of it on the identical clip as all the time? Discovering a technique to preserve Ohtani contemporary looks like a really tough drawback. The remainder of this can come out within the wash.