Ceddanne Rafaela has a weak arm. He additionally has a robust arm.
That is an evaluation I’ve wished to do for some time. It’s not that essential or sophisticated, and most of it’s pretty apparent. However it will get at one thing that comes up on occasion within the numerous locations baseball is mentioned on-line. The dialog tends to start out like this: Crew A ought to signal Participant X and transfer him to a brand new place. Inevitably, one of many first questions requested about such a plan is whether or not Participant X has the arm energy to play that new place.
The quantity that will get cited to “yay” or “nay” such a follow-up is arm energy, in miles per hour. However ask any baseball fan to take a seat with this for a second, and so they’ll elevate a priority. Arm energy, to a point, is a operate of place. A 3rd baseman has an extended throw to make than a second baseman. A proper fielder has an extended throw to make than a left fielder. This implies gamers with higher arms are inclined to play these positions, as we will see on this plot:
It additionally means the official arm energy figures reported by Baseball Savant aren’t fairly transferable between positions. We are able to’t say whether or not Participant X has the arm energy for a given place if he’s by no means performed there earlier than.
That brings us to Rafaela. Most followers consider him because the next-best heart fielder within the majors after Pete Crow-Armstrong. However Rafaela additionally occurred to play 24 video games at second base final yr. His printed arm energy at second base in 2025 was 78.5 mph. In heart area, nonetheless, his printed arm energy was 93.4 mph. Since 2021, that’s the most important hole for a fielder between two positions (excluding first base):
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Trying on the plot, if we assumed Rafaela’s printed arm energy at second base could be his arm energy in heart area, he would have one of many three weakest arms in heart final yr. As a substitute, he wound up having one of many strongest. That’s as a result of that is the kind of throw that will get an out at second base:
Whereas that is usually what it takes to get an out from heart area:
It’s price noting the methodology behind the arm energy figures you see on Baseball Savant. Mainly, it’s the typical of a participant’s strongest throws. From the Baseball Savant arm energy leaderboard:
Because the calls for of every place grouping are completely different, the averages and qualifiers are completely different as nicely.
– 1B: common of prime 1% of throws (minimal 100 throws to qualify);
– 2B/SS/3B: common of prime 5% of throws (minimal 75 throws to qualify);
– OF: common of prime 10% of throws (minimal 50 throws to qualify)
So, how a lot arm energy may we count on a participant to realize or lose with a place change? I discovered all the gamers with the minimal variety of throws at a number of positions in a season since 2021. I then took their arm energy at every place and averaged the variations. It’s about what you’d count on. Gamers throw more durable after they’re in proper area than they do at first base:
Arm Power Change
| Pos | Achieve/Loss (mph) |
|---|---|
| RF | +1.5 |
| 3B | +1.1 |
| SS | +0.8 |
| CF | +0.3 |
| LF | +0.3 |
| 2B | -2.0 |
| 1B | -4.8 |
Supply: Baseball Savant
Fielders certified at a number of positions in a season
Whereas performing this evaluation, I discovered that Tom Tango had carried out a extra complete piece on these positional equivalencies, trying particularly at gamers who moved between any two positions. Utilizing his methodology provides us this good grid:
As an example, a fielder transferring from second base to heart area provides about 6.5 mph on common to their arm energy determine. Rafaela gained practically double that, going from a roughly common throwing second baseman to one of many hardest throwing outfielders within the league. However how a lot is all that arm energy price?
When it comes to worth, arm energy is the lesser of the fielding abilities in comparison with vary. There are merely fewer alternatives to utilize a robust arm. Baseball Savant solely publishes arm worth parts for outfielders, the place arm and vary are simpler to separate than they’re for infielders. Arm worth is derived via a sequence of estimates and charges, evaluating how usually a baserunner ought to try to advance on a fielder with how usually they really do (and the way usually they accomplish that safely). That is carried out utilizing a distance-time mannequin, which considers the pace of the runner, the arm of the fielder, and the gap every are from their goal.
In different phrases, arm worth isn’t nearly pure energy. Stopping runners from advancing requires a wide range of different abilities, like attending to the ball, fielding it cleanly, and making an correct throw. And even a fantastic throw relies on one other fielder receiving the ball and making use of the tag. Plus, a runner’s resolution to advance is partially primarily based on the sport state and different nuances particular to a play. There are a lot of causes a robust arm doesn’t all the time equal a priceless arm, and vice versa.
This additionally signifies that every outfield place has a distinct baseline arm worth:
Arm Worth by Place (Per 100 Throws)
| Worth | LF | CF | RF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance | -2.26 | -1.62 | -2.52 |
| Maintain | +1.14 | +1.29 | +1.52 |
| Out | +0.87 | +0.52 | +0.91 |
| Whole | -0.25 | +0.19 | -0.09 |
Supply: Baseball Savant
Arm energy appears to be most impactful for proper fielders. That’s attention-grabbing, although it’s additionally pretty intuitive. Proper fielders are sometimes requested to make very lengthy throws, and may get dinged for permitting runners to advance. These with sturdy arms are each extra prone to throw runners out and to persuade runners to remain in place.
I additionally surprise if there’s a repute benefit. Balls hit to left area, as an example, enable the runner to learn and react to the play in entrance of them, whereas balls hit to proper area power the runner to seek advice from the scouting report. I’m certain many runners really feel uneasy after they can’t see Addison Barger:
Middle area arm worth is the least aware of arm energy. There’s simply not rather a lot even the strongest arm can do from 400 ft away. A middle fielder with a priceless arm is a middle fielder who takes a great path to the ball and cuts it off clear, quite than one who racks up assists.
Rafaela occurs to have all these abilities. He has each great vary and a robust arm. He completed 2025 with two runs above common from his arm, seventh amongst heart fielders and within the prime 15% amongst outfielders. That’s not rather a lot, however hey, it isn’t unhealthy for a soft-tossing second baseman.