Apparently Luis Arraez is sweet at protection now. This took me unexpectedly, and maybe it additionally took you unexpectedly, or maybe it’s a minimum of taking you unexpectedly on this actual second, as you ingest this weblog. As a result of if there’s one factor you recognize about Luis Arraez, it’s most likely… effectively, it’s that he’s unimaginable at contacting the baseball with a bat. But when there’s a second factor you recognize about Luis Arraez, it’s that he’s not excellent at protection.
This reality is a key totem within the still-raging Arraez Wars of the 2020s. Those that like baseball performed the old school manner insist that he’s an MVP-level expertise, enraging most modern baseball followers who perceive that singles are solely so precious, particularly for a man who can’t run effectively or maintain down a defensive place.
When Arraez signed with the Giants this offseason underneath the situation that he would solely play second base, the common response was one thing like, “OK, effectively, good luck with that.” Such pessimism was warranted. In 2024 — his age-27 season! — he graded out as -7 outs above common at second base in simply 42 video games performed there; given a full season, he would’ve simply been the game’s worst defender on the place. In 2025, the Padres punted him down the defensive spectrum to first base. However even at first, Arraez appeared almost unplayable, racking up one other -7 OAA on the notoriously straightforward place. (It’s not that tough, inform ’em Wash, and so forth.) These missing the vary to play first base typically discover themselves consigned to designated hitterdom sooner relatively than later.
Not so quick, Arraez mentioned. On February 13, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle printed a narrative with a surprising lede: “Luis Arráez’s fielding at second base is already vastly improved, a minimum of based on San Francisco Giants infield coach Ron Washington, and Arráez agrees.” Slusser cited Arraez’s laborious work over the offseason because the catalyst.
Sturdy claims in February have their manner of softening by the point April rolls round. However right here we’re, a month-plus into the 2026 season, and who’s it that leads all second basemen in defensive worth? Sure, it’s he, Luis Arraez, towering over the competitors at +6 OAA. It’s not simply amongst second basemen, both; his +5 fielding run worth is tied for third amongst all defenders who don’t put on masks. Right here is the non-catcher leaderboard: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr., Nico Hoerner, and Arraez. In different phrases, the three consensus greatest defenders in baseball, and in addition a man who appeared like he couldn’t deal with first base as not too long ago as final season.
This, for my part, requires a great old school investigation. How? Why? By means of what means?
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Maybe Arraez hit the health club, injected some peptides, received swoll and speedy, and become a very completely different athlete. However the proof doesn’t level in that path. His dash pace is nearly unchanged. His arm power budged solely a tick. He is similar man. And so the peptides concept doesn’t maintain a lot water.
In lieu of extra invasive biodata, I figured the one different approach to unravel this was by watching each play that Arraez has made (and never made) within the 2026 season. Longtime followers could bear in mind my software of this technique within the case of 1 Jorge Polanco upon his re-signing with the Mariners within the 2024-2025 offseason. In that article, I famous that there isn’t any straightforward approach to glean how a lot OAA a participant gained or misplaced on any particular play. However I additionally talked about a workaround within the again finish of Baseball Savant, albeit a messy one. As I wrote then, the one figuring out info given by Savant to conduct this evaluation is the month when the ball was hit, the exit velocity, the handedness of the hitter, and whether or not the sport was performed dwelling or away. This isn’t an incredible quantity of knowledge. Nevertheless it is sufficient to slender it down to a few or 4 potential performs usually, after which widespread sense may be utilized from that time to determine which of these is the related play.
And so I went by way of this course of to raised perceive how Arraez is racking up loopy defensive numbers. A few of it was little question fluky, or a minimum of suggestive of pc error. His “greatest” play this season appears fairly unremarkable to my eye; he crosses over the bag after which flips the ball to the shortstop. He was given almost 0.85 OAA for this play. I’m unsure I see it.
Right here’s one other ostensibly fairly precious play, allegedly value one-sixth of an OAA. I don’t see something particular particularly right here, both:
However, like the very best outfielders, my suspicion is that Arraez is grading out effectively as a result of, by the point the digital camera cuts to him on the diamond, he’s accomplished all of the laborious work to make a troublesome play look straightforward.
His speciality, it looks as if, is squaring himself up on groundballs to his proper. Usually, gamers could make this play look a bit flashier by backhanding the ball and throwing with their weight shifting away from the bag, like a shortstop within the six gap. However within the play under, Arraez will get to the spot early, negating the necessity for a troublesome backhand choose and a good more durable throw.
These high-quality anticipation abilities have been on show in conditions the place Arraez is pulled in shut to chop off the run at dwelling. These performs make an argument that he’s been even higher than his OAA, as a result of he obtained nearly zero credit score for these two wonderful run-saving efforts:
Arraez hasn’t accomplished something too highlight-reel worthy, save for a formidable play he made to his left that was noticed by Ben Clemens a pair weeks in the past. However Arraez has taken care of almost each straightforward play. Right here’s one evident exception, based on Savant, a minimum of:
This graded out as 90% prone to be an out, which feels a bit harsh, given Jake Cronenworth smoked it 109 mph and Arraez needed to subject it on a brief hop.
This play is extra reflective of his potential weaknesses – he was given a 68% likelihood to make this play, and simply didn’t have the uncooked pace to make up for a so-so soar:
Even with below-average footspeed, Arraez seems to have develop into good at second base protection by simply enhancing his reflexes. There’s no Driveline for fielding (but); that’s most likely as a result of, not like with pitching and hitting, there aren’t any clear coaching workout routines to enhance the important thing efficiency device (velocity for pitching, bat pace for hitting). Maybe consequently, and in addition as a consequence of protection peaking sooner than all different abilities, it appears like drastic defensive enhancements happen much less steadily, and there may be much less of a blueprint for this type of turnaround. There isn’t a clear smoking gun for Arraez’s enchancment; he’s simply extra steadily in spots the place he used to not be.
On the offensive aspect of the ball, the story is far the identical as at all times. He’s managing just-above-average manufacturing by hitting the ball very softly, principally between the left fielder and heart fielder. He hasn’t hit a single ball more durable than 98.1 mph. However the protection completely modifications his trajectory as a participant. He’s even stealing bases! He’s not counting on tremendous pace or bodily instruments to tug this off, however the modifications look actual, and fixing these components of his recreation is the neatest factor he may’ve accomplished to reposition himself for a multiyear deal when he as soon as once more hits the free agent market after the season.