The Seven Pitches of Seth Lugo

First issues first, I would like you to divorce your self from the notion of marrying strictly for love. As a result of that’s not the way it labored for Evelyn Hugo.

Oh wait. That’s proper, a few of you in all probability don’t know who Evelyn Hugo is. Think about Elizabeth Taylor, Rita Hayworth, and Ava Gardener all rolled into one, and now, in her twilight years, she’s sitting for a longform, tell-all interview spanning her complete profession — each marriage, each film, each divorce. That’s the premise of The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo, a novel by Taylor Jenkins Reid.

None of Hugo’s marriages are fairytale romances. For her, they entail extra sensible issues. Typically love is an element, however it’s by no means the only real focus, and infrequently the first concern. However, every marriage performs a definite position in Hugo’s story, within the creation of her remaining, self-actualized kind.

And simply as every husband formed Hugo’s character, every providing in a pitcher’s arsenal shapes his identification on the mound. Some pitchers discover success with only one pitch kind. However these not blessed with Mariano Rivera’s cutter normally want no less than two pitches, and for many, the quantity sits someplace within the three to 5 vary.

For Seth Lugo, it’s seven.

OK, it’s technically greater than seven, but when I had been writing a biography of Lugo framed round every of the pitches he throws (and I type of am), I’d merge just a few of these pitch varieties collectively. As a result of functionally, they’re doing the identical factor, and so they’re not distinct sufficient to advantage their very own subplot.

However first, a extra macro take a look at Lugo’s season to this point. By way of 4 begins comprising 24 1/3 innings, Lugo has pitched to a 1.48 ERA and a 2.17 FIP. These numbers are spectacular, however they arrive with a number of early-season caveats. A type of begins was in opposition to the White Sox, who rank useless final in wRC+ to this point in 2026, however the others had been in opposition to the Braves, Brewers, and Tigers, who respectively rank third, seventh, and fifteenth in wRC+. Extra troubling is the best way his precise numbers examine to his anticipated stats. His xERA sits at 3.76 and his xFIP at 3.37.

The dramatic distinction in xFIP relative to FIP is well understood, since xFIP is simply swapping out the pitcher’s precise HR/FB price with the league common quantity to easy out the consequences of batted ball luck. Lugo has but to permit a house run this 12 months, however xFIP figures round 12% of his fly balls allowed ought to have left the ballpark, including just a few extra earned runs to his ledger.

To get a pitcher’s xERA requires changing his xwOBA allowed to the ERA scale. Lugo’s xwOBA is .309, whereas his precise wOBA is .249. Since xwOBA is estimating typical outcomes primarily based on the batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, it ought to come as no shock that Lugo’s hard-hit price and common launch angle are each above the league’s common.

It’s common for Lugo to outperform his xwOBA, however normally the distinction is 20 to 30 factors, not 60. Lugo has virtually actually benefitted from some batted ball luck, however he’s not operating an absurdly low BABIP; his .277 mark is fairly nicely in keeping with his latest seasons. And on the subject of batted balls, one other potential contributing issue to the distinction between his wOBA and xwOBA is spray angle, which isn’t included within the xwOBA calculation. Lugo has established a capability to induce pull-side groundballs at an above common price (24.6%), and he pitches in entrance of a top-five infield protection by FRV.

Lugo additionally made some offseason changes that may additional clarify why he’s outpitching his peripherals by a wider margin than up to now. Early this spring, Lugo declared his intent to re-emphasize his fastballs after getting a bit too infatuated together with his breaking pitches final 12 months. He particularly referred to as out wanting to extend utilization and fine-tune his command. Thus far, his fastball utilization is as much as 53% in comparison with 50% in 2025, and the placement grades popping out of the varied pitch fashions are a lot improved for his four-seamer and cutter (his sinker location grades have held fairly regular in recent times).

Moreover, he re-worked his slider grip over the winter. This 12 months’s model of the pitch is a pair ticks tougher with extra downward chew — a motion profile with a extra distinct end relative to his different pitches. He’s additionally getting extra arm-side break on his fastballs and changeup, with extra rise on his four-seamer and cutter, making these pitches all of the simpler as enhances to the glove-side motion and diving motion on his breaking pitches. Extra motion isn’t essentially an automated improve, however the outcomes recommend that no matter he’s doing is successfully maintaining hitters off-balance.

In protection of the hitters, Lugo provides them a sophisticated set of variables to think about in the course of the small window of time allotted for a swing choice. He’s acquired seven(ish) pitches to his title, and so they all make a necessary contribution to who he’s as a pitcher.

So let’s get to these particular person pitch varieties, Lugo’s relationships with them, how they form his character arc as pitcher, and the way they mirror the marriages of a fictional actress. We’ll work via Hugo’s marriages (utilizing the chapter titles assigned to them within the e-book) and their pitch kind analogs in chronological order.

The Curveball: “Poor Ernie Diaz”
Hugo married Diaz so as to work via a selected set of circumstances and safe a really particular end result. She was a young person residing in Hell’s Kitchen within the Fifties, hoping to relocate to Hollywood and pursue a profession in performing.

Lugo’s Hell’s-Kitchen-to-Hollywood analog is discovering himself even or forward within the rely, hoping to get the batter to chase a pitch exterior the zone. Within the novel, Hugo convinces Diaz to chase her. She hitches a trip with him to Los Angeles, and as quickly as she latches on with a studio, she divorces him. He served his goal, however now she finds herself in a brand new set of circumstances with a brand new set of wants. Diaz did precisely what she wanted him to do, however he wasn’t helpful in lots of different conditions.

Lugo’s curveball is nice for inducing whiffs and weak contact; it disguises itself as a fastball by mirroring the spin of his four-seamer and sinker, then diving astray. In different conditions, the curveball is much less helpful. It shouldn’t be relied upon to land within the zone when behind within the rely.

The 4-Seam Fastball: “Goddamn Don Adler”
It goes with out saying that not each pitch Lugo at the moment throws has been within the combine for his complete profession, however sure pitches, like a fastball, have to be established early on. The fastball performs a key position in any pitcher’s arsenal, however like lots of his friends, Lugo spreads that accountability throughout a number of varieties. However no matter which fastball(s) a pitcher winds up that includes as an expert, virtually all of them begin with a four-seamer. The best way most pitchers draw it up, the plan is to develop a four-seamer with a robust mixture of velocity and motion to overpower hitters, after which they’ll transfer on from the fastball and be in regards to the work crafting their secondary choices.

Hugo thought her marriage to Adler — a hunky, A-Checklist actor — would provide the best mixture of affection and advertising potential to turboboost her profession. However Adler turned out to be bodily and emotionally abusive. In the meantime, Lugo’s four-seam fastball isn’t precisely a dreamboat both. It sits just under 92 mph with below-average stuff. He does find the pitch nicely, and site is essential. By finding herself subsequent to Adler (each in a film and in her private life), Hugo was capable of land her first critical position — the one she thought may win her an Oscar. It didn’t. Lugo in all probability hoped his four-seamer would carry him via begins and maybe land him a Cy Younger award at some point. Nevertheless it didn’t, and it gained’t. At the least not by itself.

However even pitchers upset by their fastball don’t abandon the pitch utterly. They determine a approach to have a practical relationship. Adler, like a fastball, was a key part of Hugo’s success to that time. That means, she couldn’t divorce him immediately. She needed to make it work for some time and craft a sleek exit technique. Lugo needed to stick together with his four-seamer, finally bringing in different supporting characters and limiting its utilization. After their divorce, Hugo nonetheless often referred to as upon Adler for assist. She by no means utterly stopped needing him. Nor has Lugo stopped calling upon his four-seamer. He nonetheless wants it, however he’s not as depending on it for achievement as another pitchers are on their four-seamers.

The Slider: “Gullible Mick Riva”
Lugo’s slider splits the distinction between his fastballs and his different breaking pitches, each when it comes to velocity and motion. It’s there to distract and confuse. It tips batters into a good variety of whiffs, however sadly, it additionally lends itself to an honest quantity of fine wooden if it’s not sufficiently misleading.

Hugo eloped with Riva to attract consideration away from the (correct) rumors that she was relationship a feminine co-star. She wanted to trick each Riva and the general public into believing she wished to do one factor, when really she was doing one thing (and somebody) else the complete time. It was a high-risk/high-reward scheme. If it labored, she might return to relationship the girl she beloved in non-public, however there have been any variety of issues that might have gone awry. When Lugo throws his slider, he’s hoping to maintain the hitter guessing, however within the course of, he provides up a number of laborious contact. Thus far this season, hitters are slugging simply .200 in opposition to the pitch, however his anticipated slugging proportion, the one which components in exit velocity and launch angle, sits at 1.025. A pitch with that type of increase potential ought to in all probability solely be thrown whereas sporting a hazmat go well with. Lugo has averted any critical explosions to this point, and for some time, it appeared like Hugo had executed the identical in her scheme with Riva. Then it got here to mild that she was pregnant with Riva’s child. However that’s the chance of throwing a slider: If you happen to dangle it, somebody may simply bang it.

The Slurve: “Intelligent Rex North”
No pitcher goes straight to a slurve when growing their breaking pitches. They’ll attempt a curveball, then a slider, or perhaps the slider first after which the curve. The order doesn’t actually matter — the purpose is that they’ll attempt no less than one of many two (normally each) earlier than dabbling with the extra experimental hybrids and offshoots. Lugo has thrown each a curveball and a slider all through his tenure within the majors. In 2023, he added a slurve and a sweeper (which I’m combining for the needs of this dialogue, since they’re each serving roughly the identical perform) to offer hitters a barely completely different look. He wanted one thing that might compensate for his curveball’s lack of versatility and in addition contribute to an phantasm with out the volatility of his slider.

Within the wake of two divorces and an annulment, Hugo discovered herself in want of an phantasm as nicely. She was by no means going to attain a healthful, girl-next-door persona, however her repute had taken sufficient of a success that she wanted to do one thing to regain broad enchantment. She wanted to dilute the unfavorable sentiments sufficient to create uncertainty amongst those that held unflattering opinions of her. That’s why her marriage to North was a pure PR stunt. It wasn’t one thing anybody would try with their first journey down the aisle, similar to nobody opts for a slurve as their first try at a breaking ball. Hugo had already used wedding ceremony vows to rehab her picture as soon as, however it didn’t clear up the complete drawback. She wanted to work from a barely completely different angle, apply a barely completely different spin. So she threw the general public a slurve.

Her marriage to North gave Hugo a (principally) scandal-free relationship she might level to as proof that she was able to such a factor. It was one thing else for the general public to take care of as they tried to determine what precisely her entire deal was. Lugo’s slurve and sweeper give hitters one thing else to take care of as they fight to determine his plan of assault. He can find them within the zone extra reliably than his curveball, making each pitches an early-count choice, and although neither is an enormous swing-and-miss pitch, they don’t have a tendency to permit as a lot injury on contact when in comparison with Lugo’s slider. The North position in a pitcher’s arsenal is extra about opening up different avenues for achievement than attaining any nice success for itself. The slurve and the sweeper exist principally to make Lugo’s different pitches extra profitable, similar to how Hugo married North to make approach for better success as an actress.

The Sinker: “Sensible, Kindhearted, Tortured Harry Cameron”
After years spent getting her fill of manipulating spin, Hugo returned house to the consolation of a fastball. However not the normal four-seamer this time. In any case, she had tried that already. It didn’t go nicely. This time she opted for a barely quirkier fastball.

The marriages that get the fastball comp are those the place love really is a outstanding characteristic. It’s nicely established that Hugo’s marriages didn’t require like to make an essential contribution to her remaining kind, however the ones that did have some quantity of it had been naturally going to play a extra foundational position, very like the half the fastball performs in pitcher’s arsenal. Hugo beloved Cameron, however solely platonically. That’s what makes this marriage an analog for the quirky, much less conventional fastball. However a sinker remains to be a fastball, so it’s not likely that quirky, and neither is the notion of queer of us performing as each other’s beards. Which was the precise dynamic between Cameron and Hugo. However, her marriage to Cameron was one in every of her longest and most secure relationships. Not not like the one between a pitcher and his fastball.

When evaluating Lugo’s sinker to his four-seamer, it’s the extra even performer. It will get fewer whiffs, however it additionally permits much less injury. The four-seamer’s larger stuff grades imply it additionally has the next ceiling for achievement, simply as Hugo’s romantic love for Adler unlocked extra potential for that relationship. However there’s one thing to be stated for a relationship — and a pitch — that reliably meets expectations, even when these expectations are set decrease from the start.

The Cutter: “Disappointing Max Girard”
One other fastball means the Girard marriage bore some semblance of affection as nicely. Now over 40, Girard was Hugo’s final ditch try at a wedding that may work for her each personally and professionally. Although this marriage represented Hugo lastly revisiting her most idealized notion of marriage, it wasn’t her going again and making an attempt to excellent a model of her four-seamer; it was her taking inventory of her life and considering, “Effectively, nothing else has fairly labored out how I envisioned it. Perhaps I’ll attempt a cutter.”

Now, Rivera, and to a lesser extent, Kenley Jansen (and doubtless just a few others who’re much less prime of thoughts) have gotten away with making a cutter central to their identification as a pitcher, however extra plentiful are the cautionary tales of pitchers falling too in love with their cutters and experiencing diminishing, and at instances disastrous, returns on account of overuse. Hugo beloved her cutter (Girard), however her cutter didn’t love her again in fairly the identical approach. Girard’s love for Hugo was superficial at greatest. However as a director, Girard did nudge Hugo’s profession to a brand new stage on a number of events.

Added to the combo in 2024, Lugo’s cutter offered a approach for him to get whiffs within the zone with out the identical dangers inherent to hanging a slider or letting a four-seamer catch an excessive amount of of the plate. As the ultimate addition to his repertoire, the cutter launched another wrinkle for hitters to take care of, which helped elevate Lugo’s efficiency. By itself, the pitch isn’t all that exceptional, and if pushed to do far more than catch hitters off-guard, the methods wherein it’s missing would turn out to be obvious. Likewise, Girard provided Hugo one thing actual and of worth, however solely sporadically. He wasn’t the sort who might present up for her constantly, and for many pitchers, neither is a cutter.

The Changeup: “Agreeable Robert Jamison”
As essentially the most fastball-adjacent pitch, the changeup deserves a fastball-adjacent comp. Hugo wasn’t in love with Jamison, nor was he her greatest buddy as Cameron was, however over time, they did domesticate a familial love for one another. Hugo’s real love was Jamison’s sister, and Jamison’s position was partially as a beard and partially as a authorized loophole permitting his sister (who had lung most cancers) to go away her property to Hugo.

Hugo’s marriage to Jamison was in some methods a watered down model of her marriage to Cameron, simply as Lugo’s changeup is in some methods a watered down model of his sinker — slower however with an identical form. However watered down doesn’t imply worse. In some methods, Hugo’s marriage to Jamison was simpler, extra simple. Likewise, Lugo’s changeup tends to be a extra simple approach to generate swing-and-miss.

And as a pitcher will get deep right into a plate look or finds themselves working via the order for a 3rd time, they attain some extent the place they’ll’t maintain pumping fastballs in there. It’s time to combine in some offspeed. Hugo tried her greatest to develop an elite fastball and briefly transformed to a junkballer, however finally she hit the purpose in her outing the place she needed to go to the changeup to get her desired consequence.

(For the sake of completeness, it’s essential to acknowledge that Lugo does generally throw a splitter, although he has not thrown one but this 12 months. Though it’s a pair ticks slower than his changeup, it strikes equally, so it feels affordable to lump it in right here.)

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By most metrics, none of Hugo’s particular person marriages qualify as notably profitable. Equally, none of Lugo’s particular person pitches grade out notably nicely. However by the top of the e-book, it’s clear Hugo did have a profitable profession, and she or he acquired to spend a few years along with her real love, even when they had been by no means legally married. Every marriage served a definite goal within the second and as a part of her overarching journey. In the meantime for Lugo, an identical concoction of sequencing, spin, and site has allowed a gaggle of mediocre pitches to mix for general success.

Lugo in all probability gained’t end the 12 months with a sub-2.00 ERA, and he’s acquired fairly lengthy odds with regards to successful a Cy Younger, but when he does, the proof of idea was in The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo.