For many of the first two weeks of the 2026 season, nearly every thing was arising Yankees. In what was speculated to be a extremely aggressive division, the Yankees burst out of the gate with eight wins of their first 10 video games. None of these victories got here in opposition to pushover groups, and so they had been additionally convincing wins, with the lineup scoring greater than twice the crew’s runs allowed. Simply as importantly, the groups anticipated to rival the Yankees all obtained off to mediocre (or worse) begins. The Bronx Bombers had a 3 1/2 recreation cushion within the AL East, about as massive as one can fairly maintain in a troublesome division after 10 video games. Then, issues occurred.
After the video games of April 7, ZiPS had the Yankees with a projected two-game edge within the East, and a 35% probability of profitable the division. Whereas these numbers didn’t recommend dominance or something remotely resembling a assure, that was a four-game swing from the preseason projected standings (New York was initially two video games again of Boston) and a strong bump from their 20% odds to win the division.
Whereas not one of the video games had been one-sided affairs, the Yankees proceeded to drop 5 in a row in opposition to the Athletics and Rays, solely profitable on Monday within the ninth inning in opposition to the Angels after a Jordan Romano meltdown. Had they misplaced, it might have left the Yankees with out a share of first place for the primary time this season.
As of Tuesday morning, ZiPS initiatives the divisional race between the highest 4 groups within the East to be shut sufficient to ship my colleague Jay Jaffe into full Staff Entropy pleasure. Or a minimum of, it might if MLB hadn’t ruined bonus baseball with the blasphemy of tiebreakers. Listed here are the projected standings:
ZiPS Projected Standings – AL East (4/14)
| Staff | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 88 | 74 | — | .543 | 25.8% | 38.5% | 64.3% | 5.2% |
| New York Yankees | 88 | 74 | — | .543 | 26.1% | 40.8% | 66.9% | 6.8% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 88 | 74 | — | .543 | 26.0% | 39.1% | 65.0% | 5.8% |
| Boston Purple Sox | 87 | 75 | 1 | .537 | 20.7% | 44.0% | 64.7% | 6.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 75 | 87 | 13 | .463 | 1.5% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 0.3% |
The Yankees might have misplaced their greatest probability to place the division away early. The Orioles are lacking Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, and can be with out Zach Eflin for the remainder of the season. They began out 3-6 after getting swept by the Pirates, however they obtained again to .500 on the backs of the White Sox. The Purple Sox have began to sometimes rating runs, and their pitching workers is simply too deep to be this far down the rankings in ERA and FIP. The Jays are scuffling in the meanwhile with a rotation that’s been beset by accidents, however ZiPS nonetheless sees them as harmful competitors over the remainder of the season.
This seems prefer it’s again to being a very enjoyable race, particularly if the overperforming Rays can proceed to defy our preseason expectations. I’d prefer to suppose that there’s an opportunity I may reside to see a five-way divisional tie after 162 video games. However even when the East doesn’t show to be that tight, it ought to be fairly the gauntlet the remainder of the way in which.
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