Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/27/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, the place we’re creeping into the 90s this weekend. Thanks for stopping by, let’s speak some ball.

Alex: Are you able to inform us who’s subsequent up for the crew prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mets and Braves are subsequent, Yankees and Astros deeper within the combine. Further deep and weirdly particular: Washington is on monitor for the second week of April as a result of I’ll see Rochester, Wilmington and Harrisburg the primary sequence and a half of the minor league season.

Go Mudcats: Hey Eric, hope you might be doing effectively. In occupied with the Pirates and Griffin breaking camp with the large crew, I’ve been making an attempt to determine what the draw back is particularly. I perceive that growth can get tousled/stunted by speeding prospects, however how precisely would that current and why would 2 or 3 months in AAA preserve that from occurring?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel there’d be an end-of-season profit to getting his ft moist instantly. Transfer his adjustment interval and the pomp and circumstance of his call-up to the beginning of the season, get it over with, and provides your crew an opportunity of getting a rooted, productive Griffin from Could on as an alternative of July on, or one thing…

Eric A Longenhagen: However on this case you’re the Pirates. You’ve gotta max out how lengthy you will have this man.

Eric A Longenhagen: And it’d be good for you, because the Pirates, to make Konnor Griffin‘s name up it’s personal mid-to-late season occasion that brings folks to the ballpark.

Eric A Longenhagen: If he agrees to an extension, screw it, he debuts from the soar. If not, you want to have this man for six and a half years.

Hazmat Corntail: I used to be Franklin Arias’ profile not too long ago, and it struck me as harking back to Elvis Andrus…as I heading in the right direction with that comparability, or is there a greater comp you’d make?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume that comp is extreme, that’s what the Arias consequence now we have projected most seems to be like: premium contact and protection, slugging like .370 lots of the time. Maikel Garcia is the present participant comp we made throughout work on the 100.

Bobby: Why does Blade Tidwell not get extra consideration? All of the Stuff fashions have him within the ninety fifth percentile or above. Misses a ton of bats. Command appears to have improved considerably. Why is he method down on organizational depth charts and crew prospect lists (yours being the exception)

Eric A Longenhagen: Nicely first let me say I feel it’s okay if the pie chart of baseball discourse isn’t precisely aligned with participant expertise. “Get sufficient consideration”? (Adam Friedland voice) What does that imply?…

Eric A Longenhagen: In Tidwell’s case I think about of us are correctly listed on his aid likelihood.

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, as a result of I agree with you we’re speaking one 70-grade pitch and different plus stuff, which means he’s a late-inning reliever who’s principally prepared for prime time, and I worth that sort of man rather a lot.

Salutations: You have been the low man on Sal Stewart, and despite the fact that he hasn’t achieved a lot, it’s clear your place has modified. Might you foresee this consequence for Cooper Pratt as effectively, particularly as he fills out and if doesn’t take any fastballs to the again of the pinnacle?

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely doable, gamers steadily change and their grade ought to change, in type.

Huge Buckston: Extra Twins SP damage information with the information David Festa can be out some time, along with the Pablo Lopez UCL damage.

RosterResource have the opening day rotation proper now as Ryan-Ober-Woods Richardson-Bradley-Zebby, which I’d say is most probably. However the Twins have a wealth of younger choices behind them in Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, John Klein, and Kendry Rojas. How would you rank the pecking order of those for getting MLB begins? I feel Abel might be clearly on the high, however the different 4 haven’t debuted but so I’m not so certain. Curious about any perception you might need when it comes to major-league readiness.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that Abel is tier one on his personal, I’d put Morris subsequent (he spent all of final 12 months at Triple-A) after which Klein after which Prielipp and Rojas final simply because they’ve much less of an inning load from final 12 months and is likely to be dealt with extra conservatively. In actuality, who debuts first from the group after Abel will most likely be decided by who throws for St. Paul on the identical day because the man who acquired damage.

Jarlin Marlin: What changes did Konnor Griffin make from going to twenty hit to 45 hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: All teenage gamers have both a 20- or 25-grade current hit device on The Board. I don’t assume it’s practical to say, “this tremendous younger low-level hitter would hit .250 (or no matter) within the large leagues proper now.” and so the “current” hit device grades are standardized: 25 for the actually superior contact bats, 20 for everybody else. As soon as guys set up themselves at Double-A then we put an precise “current” hit device grade on them, they’re principally in vary of the bigs at that time. It’s additionally so you’ll be able to type The Board and it is sensible.

WagnerCrystal: I used to be suprised by Johnny Stage making the highest 100. What about him actually stood out within the Giants system. He as, you talked about, is small and maxed out, which I might assume would make him a lot much less interesting dudes with extra energy and/or velocity.

Eric A Longenhagen: hitter who can play shortstop.

Nick: When evaluating, which bodily device have you ever discovered to be essentially the most innate amongst elite prospects? One thing that the perfect of the perfect simply “have” and nobody can coach or train… and the way usually has that translated into skilled success?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF Protection

Mike: Have you ever of us thought of transferring the ‘system overview’ part to the highest of the crew prospect lists as an alternative of the underside the place they’re now? They’re all the time nice, pleasant writing and I fear they get buried on the backside of those lists!

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel the posts would appear to be recipes with extreme preambles if we moved them to the entrance, and I need to make you scroll previous the 35+s to get to it for concern you’d in any other case ignore them.

JaysFan: From the choose to clicks article, I’m curious to know if these are extra so picks for breakouts or to make the highest 100. As a result of (particularly for the supply picks part) there was guys who weren’t even on the principle sections of lists to be picked as that. So are they saying guys like Kennew Blanco for instance is their choose to develop into a breakout or high 100 man? With that, do you will have something on Kennew specifically, can’t say I do know a lot about him, whether or not that’s what you might be seeing or your supply

Eric A Longenhagen: Picks to Click on are: Prospects not presently on the High 100 who we’re predicting can be subsequent 12 months. We’ve got a roughly 30% hit charge on these names, traditionally. The part on the backside is an inventory of gamers who our sources contemplate as having the potential to do that. Blanco hit effectively in final 12 months’s DSL however was older than most guys debuting. Brendan thinks he deserves a comply with, now we have a supply who likes him greater than that.

The Actor for Al Pacino: Jordan Lawlar is transferring to outfield. There have been lots of high-profile strikes like this in recent times with first rate outcomes (Tatis, Merrill, Oneil Cruz simply off the highest of my head), and anecdotally the next focus than I can keep in mind in my baseball-watching life. Do you assume that is turning into a authentic pattern (athletic however shaky infielder to strong outfielder), and is it as new as I appear to assume it’s? I can consider particular person circumstances up to now, however none clustered collectively like this. Or perhaps this simply occurs extra within the minors earlier than I’m conscious of it…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a superb query. Gamers have/are transferring down the defensive spectrum on a regular basis. However I’m struggling to think about older, large title gamers who moved from shortstop on to the outfield, and I’m struggling. I suppose technically Mookie did for some time, proper? Many of the names I’m pondering of moved to 3B or 2B. Possibly there’s some bias in our Tatis/Oneil group as a result of they’re proficient sufficient hitters that you simply’re okay with them being outfielders? Cronenworth sorts you need to play 2B

szakyl: This time of 12 months what’s a extra useful have a look at a prospect for scouting: WBC competitors or normal spring coaching?

Eric A Longenhagen: WBC. Spring video games are good due to the amount of gamers I get to see, but when I’m concentrating on one man let’s see him actually get after it.

Visitor: Have you learnt when spring breakout rosters can be introduced

Eric A Longenhagen: It wasn’t till March seventeenth final 12 months, based mostly on a fast Goog. I texted Callis, will let .

Spencer Ohtani: Discuss me down from Lagrange, child jogs my memory a lot of Delin Betances.

Eric A Longenhagen: For those who insist:

Eric A Longenhagen: His fastball isn’t going to play like a 100 mph fastball, its angle is de facto hittable. He has beneath common athleticism for a starter. His supply is far more constant than it was when he was right here for AFL two seasons in the past, however his really feel for location remains to be reilever-y. We like him, clearly, and Betances shouldn’t be a nasty comp.

NFP: If a man seems to be like a 40 or 45 at CF or SS, what’s the chance they get pushed off that place simply because there’s somebody who can man it higher? Clearly you grade them on the place you assume they’ll deal with, however doesn’t that change their precise (versus future) worth?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, a lot of it simply is dependent upon who else the crew has on the roster. You’re stepping into scouting versus predicting. Hell, a man may very well be a plus shortstop defender and when you’ve got a 70 in your roster he’s taking part in 3B. Maikel Garcia, once more.

gamer: miguel mendez is pumping gasoline this spring, do you assume he has a shot at beginning video games for the dads this 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, however one other man whose fastball performs down on account of its lack of motion.

Visitor: Eric – how assured are you that Kevin Mcgonigle actually hit a ball 118mph within the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a foul ball, so I kinda don’t assume we should always care both method, however in case you wanna see it and choose for your self, it happens on the 3:22 mark of this video: Kevin McGonigle, INF, Detroit Tigers

Eric A Longenhagen: Energy metrics that extra precisely illustrate Kevin McGonigle’s energy: 105 EV90 (above avg), 113 max (above avg), 47% onerous hit charge (plus)

Eric A Longenhagen: This isn’t a man with 70 uncooked energy.

Oaktown Blues: I’m curious your ideas on a pair post-prospect guys on the A’s, JT Ginn and Jack Perkins. Do you assume they need to nonetheless get run as starters, or time to bullpen them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The A’s ought to preserve deploying them as starters till they’re virtually out of choices. I’ve had a aid grade on Perkins for some time however they need to preserve making an attempt to start out him. They want arms, all of them have choices.

WagnerCrystal: Roch Cholowsky appears bit underwhelming from a instruments perspective for dude who I’ve heard is the favourite to go 1-1 total. Am miscalibrating my expectations? I’ve heard him in comparison with an analogous caliber of prospect as Adley Rutschman.

Eric A Longenhagen: Underwhelming in case you’re anticipating A-Rod or Corey Seager, however I feel his instruments and prospect DNA are just like Dansby Swanson: strikeouts, however will get to energy and performs unbelievable protection. I’m cool taking that man first if there isn’t a Gerrit Cole (or somebody like that) to take.

DJ: I actually benefit from the retrospective “how’s my driving” items on previous prospect analysis hits and misses. Are there any particular “misses” that you simply nonetheless take into consideration or which have an affect in your current day evaluations?

Eric A Longenhagen: Matt Olson: If there’s sufficient energy, be cool with the 70ish% contact charge.

Colton: Dynasty fantasy associated query; Sebastian Walcott or Payton Tolle for my subsequent choose? Already set as much as compete this 12 months, can preserve these guys so long as I need. Leaning Walcott however would love some enter if doable.

Eric A Longenhagen: For those who really feel like your SS/3B scenario is ready for the following few years, take Tolle. I like Walcott however Tolle is each bit as freaky and is gonna be doing stuff within the bigs instantly.

Eric A Longenhagen: For those who’re outdated at SS, then roll the cube

Lunch Angle: Who’s the following Ben Rice–somebody crushing the minors however is missed for being outdated for a prospect. Parks Harber?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1,000,000 greenback query. Harber isn’t a nasty reply. Ryan Ward?

DJ: At what level do you start evaluating draft eligible beginner gamers? I assume that’s a tough steadiness while you’re additionally specializing in effectively over a thousand skilled gamers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I simply tuck school and highschool stuff into the schedule like traditional. Loads to do right here in Phoenix, journey residence to Philly after which to Florida on the docket for April. Draft record is right here: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Chris: With the potential of a wage flooring going into place, perhaps it makes the Griffin extension extra palatable for the Pirates. Since they are going to be pressured to spend anyhow.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, however it may imply they need to know what the ground is earlier than they do a deal.

rob: Within the Tigers record, I didn’t see any feedback about Bryce Rainer’s fielding (40/55).  Do you count on him to stay at SS or may the arm transfer him to the OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stays at SS

Adam: Which minor league ballpark presents the perfect viewing expertise for the common fan when it comes to expertise on the sector and high quality of stradium?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are such a lot of cool minor league parks. Charleston, Lehigh Valley, Charlotte…

David: Odds Aron Estrada (BAL) is the true deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose it is dependent upon your expectations. I felt comfy transferring on from him fairly rapidly throughout work on the highest 100. That doesn’t imply he’s unhealthy, I simply assume he seems to be like a forty five.

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually small participant.

Jim: You gonna attempt to catch Jamie Arnold’s debut at this time?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d break plans to perform a little west valley double up, yeah.

Desert Blossom: Have you ever had any current seems to be at SS Jose Fernandez within the DBacks system? I do know to not take ST stats too critically, however a 22 yo with 2 HRs (and a couple of extra XBHs) already and the potential to stay at SS is intriguing on the very least

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice defender, constructed like a superhero, swing nonetheless seems to be bizarre however the contact piece of his sport was nearer to common final 12 months. Good prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, that’s my time. Thanks for stopping by, trying ahead to chatting once more subsequent week!