I’m of the opinion that you just normally don’t be taught a lot from watching spring coaching. It’s glorified observe, with inconsistent high quality of competitors even earlier than you contemplate the truth that some guys are going all-out whereas others are engaged on a particular subject quite than making an attempt to win the sport. That is very true for place gamers who got here into camp with a minimum of an inside observe on a beginning job. It’s why I pay extra consideration to school baseball throughout February and March. Hell, the brand new season of Love Is Blind is out and I must catch up so I can see if there are any ex-college ballplayers within the forged.
One exception to the rule that you just don’t be taught a lot from spring coaching: Justin Crawford.
The 22-year-old simply missed our High 100 Prospects checklist; he graded out as a forty five+, whereas the worldwide checklist solely included gamers with a 50 FV or greater. However, Crawford goes to be a vitally vital participant within the Nationwide League pennant race this season.
After a shock run to the Fall Traditional in 2022, the Phillies had saved the identical core collectively ever since, and improved their regular-season document annually. However the postseason outcomes had began heading within the improper course, and because the roster received older, the vibes have been getting stale.
This was presupposed to be an offseason of rejuvenation, however regardless of a flirtation with Bo Bichette, the Phillies actually solely held serve. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have been retained, Nick Castellanos was changed by Adolis García, and Matt Strahm changed by Brad Keller. Ranger Suárez and Harrison Bader walked as free brokers and have been to get replaced internally by rookies: Andrew Painter and Crawford, respectively.
Again in October, I carried out a postmortem on a 2025 Phillies group that definitely appeared ok to win the World Collection however received bounced within the first spherical for the second consecutive 12 months. Just one group will get to win the World Collection yearly, so a few of the issues that sank the Phillies are outdoors the entrance workplace or teaching workers’s capacity to regulate. You simply need to cross your fingers and hope another person knocks the Dodgers out, or that the wind blows your course.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It appears to be like such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply disillusioned.
We get it. You need to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we might wish to level out a couple of of the nice the explanation why you must grow to be a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We cannot bug you with this advert, or another.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get minimize off.
3. Darkish mode and Traditional mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click information exports! Export our projections and leaderboards in your private tasks.
6. Take away the photographs on the house web page! (Truthfully, this does not sound so nice to us, however some individuals needed it, and we like to offer our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We’ve got handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections obtainable for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a custom-made 12 months finish evaluation! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this 12 months, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, completely for Members.
10. Assist help FanGraphs and our total workers! Our Members present us with important sources to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you may contemplate a Membership at present, for your self or as a present! And we notice this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite advertisements on this article. We did not need to overdo it.
There have been, nonetheless, fixable flaws in roster building. Two specifically stood out: First, the entire right-handed energy void behind Bryce Harper and Schwarber, ensuing from Alec Bohm’s being overmatched in a lineup place that ought to’ve been occupied by Castellanos. I don’t assume they mounted that downside, however I’m additionally a serious García skeptic, so possibly I’m improper.
The opposite downside is the Phillies’ utter incapability to rejuvenate the roster by way of inside promotions over the previous 4 years. I don’t need to say they haven’t used their farm system, as a result of they’ve traded from it liberally. The Phillies have two High 100 Prospects this 12 months, however they’ve traded two others (George Klassen and Eduardo Tait) to bolster the most important league roster. That’s positive; that’s what prospects are there for.
But it surely additionally means they’ve gotten much less main league manufacturing out of their very own farm system than another group in baseball. It’s Orion Kerkering and Johan Rojas, who’s a terrific defensive middle fielder however hits like a pitcher from the Nineteen Nineties. That’s not ok whereas the remainder of the core is sufficiently old to get Homestar Runner references.
That flaw is getting mounted this 12 months. Painter, the Twenty seventh-ranked prospect in baseball, and Crawford are a part of the Opening Day plan, and Aidan Miller, the 2023 first-round choose and no. 13 total prospect, might determine within the main league plan in some unspecified time in the future this season.
The final rookie place participant to begin commonly for the Phillies was Rojas, who made 103 begins in middle area in 2024. He posted a 66 wRC+ in 363 plate appearances; the requirements for Crawford will likely be greater. Aside from Rojas, the Phillies haven’t began a rookie place participant on a regular basis since Bryson Stott in 2022.
The final 22-year-old place participant to begin commonly for the Phillies was Jimmy Rollins in 2001. Earlier than him, Scott Rolen in 1997. You may get all the way in which again to Dick Allen, Johnny Callison, and Richie Ashburn with out going outdoors the ten most up-to-date such gamers. It doesn’t occur typically.
That’s a refreshing change, even whether it is one made by necessity. Being the youngest Phillies common since Rollins can be cause sufficient to observe Crawford carefully, provided that Rollins’ identify is festooned all around the franchise document guide.
However there are peculiarities particular to Crawford’s sport that make him worthy of additional consideration, on prime of the conventional questions, like can he adapt to main league pitching, and is he going to be a superb defensive middle fielder or is he simply quick?
Some second-generation huge leaguers have principally nothing in widespread with their fathers. (Cody Bellinger involves thoughts right here.) However for those who predicted what the son of Carl Crawford can be like, you’d most likely get fairly near Justin: a left-handed-hitting outfielder with average-or-better contact expertise and plus-plus velocity.
At 6-foot-1, 175 kilos, Crawford fils is sort of a bit leaner than his dad, who seemed like he might steal 70 bases a 12 months even when there have been a cinder-block wall between first and second. However he’s so younger he’ll most likely placed on some extra muscle, and he’s a lot robust already. Eric Longenhagen flagged Crawford’s 46% HardHit price within the minors and a most exit velo of 110 mph; simply when it comes to hitting the ball laborious, that places Crawford at or close to main league common.
And the minor league outcomes have been wonderful. Beginning along with his first full skilled season, 2023, Crawford has put up a wRC+ of 120 or higher at each minor league cease, regardless of how transient, and he’s posted stolen base totals within the 40s in each season of his profession. Aside from an 18-game run in Excessive-A two years in the past, by which he batted .288, Crawford has additionally hit .300 or higher all over the place he’s gone. In 2025, he spent the total season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and in 112 video games he slashed .334/.411/.452, whereas practically doubling his stroll price from 6.1% in Double-A to 11.5%.
I don’t care what your prospect pedigree is, that’s an incredible season for a 21-year-old in his first crack on the highest stage of minor league baseball. Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has stated that Crawford would’ve made his main league debut final summer time had the commerce for Bader not eradicated a path to on a regular basis enjoying time.
So how the hell is that this not a High 100 prospect? Eric truly spent an enormous a part of Crawford’s blurb answering that apparent query. For all that monster batting common and laborious contact, Crawford received a gift 20, future 30 grade on his energy instrument. That’s as a result of for those who hit the ball laborious within the air, it goes for additional bases, however for those who hit the ball laborious on the bottom, it normally turns into an out. Typically two.
Crawford isn’t only a groundball hitter; his 59.4% groundball price in 2025 was the bottom of his profession. It additionally would’ve been the best by any certified hitter within the majors since 2023. By Eric’s rationalization, it’s probably not that Crawford is chopping down on the ball; the issue is that his swing takes a minute to get going, which leaves him late and swinging excessive of the baseball.
There are three potential outcomes right here. The primary: Crawford has truly gotten higher at retaining the ball off the bottom, consider it or not. Within the low minors, he was hitting as many as 5 grounders for each fly ball. That ratio is now all the way down to about three-to-one. Perhaps that gradual development continues and he turns into a productive, if considerably groundball-heavy hitter.
Tim Anderson produced 19.1 WAR and a 104 wRC+ over the primary seven seasons of his profession with a GB/FB ratio of 1.96 and a GB% of 52.0. He skirted the road of what’s survivable, and fell off a cliff in a rush, however he additionally didn’t stroll as a lot as Crawford does, or hit the ball as laborious as Crawford has within the higher minors.
End result no. 2: Crawford encounters huge league pitching for the primary time, will get tied in knots, and turns right into a irritating amalgamation of Raimel Tapia and (to invoke one other former Phillies shortstop) Wilson Valdez. The results of such an final result I’ll depart to your creativeness.
The third final result: Crawford modifications nothing and succeeds anyway. He’s received a bizarre offensive profile, however it’s not particularly laborious to know. Aside from one factor: He hasn’t gotten uncovered but. Each time he’s gone up the ladder, he’s thrived, culminating in the perfect season of his profession at Lehigh Valley.
Is there a contemporary precedent for a hitter like this thriving within the majors? Only one, actually: Christian Yelich. Yelich got here up so way back it’s simple to neglect the baby-faced, rail-thin child who debuted for the Marlins in 2023. That child had a 4.58 GB/FB ratio as a rookie, and ran groundball charges within the 60s in every of his first three seasons within the huge leagues. He was three years and greater than 1,000 plate appearances into his profession earlier than he posted a double-digit residence run season, and his first .200 ISO got here in 2018, his MVP season with the Brewers. (And that with the help of the late-2010s dynamite ball.)
Such an final result, whereas potential, would require Crawford not solely to carry his floor as he faces main league velocity for the primary time, but in addition to get robust sufficient to hit the ball as laborious as Yelich has all through his profession. It’s a tantalizing chance, however a distant one.
So on this, his first camp as a projected huge leaguer, Crawford should work with hitting coach Kevin Lengthy to discover a method to adapt with out shedding the contact expertise that made him a first-round prospect within the first place. It’ll be a serious problem for each participant and training workers, however it’s been 4 years since a Phillies rookie contributed commonly with the bat. Somebody’s received to do it will definitely.