Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/6/26

Matt: When does the highest 100 content material begin to drop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Center of subsequent week! Draft rankings, How’s My Driving?, Prime 100, Picks to Click on, and bunch extra stuff from begins rolling out Wednesday.

Jim: What are the probabilities that Wei-En Lin provides velocity as he ages? Looks like he could possibly be a mid-rotation starter if he did.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe he has that type of ceiling however it’s extra about him discovering really feel for strikes and consistency relatively than velocity.

Key Jangler: Can Tai Peete be a Drew Stubbs-type?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not loopy. It’ll in all probability take some time however, yeah. Energy, protection.

DbackJay: What’s your opinion on the latest diamondbacks orioles commerce and the gamers concerned in it ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was engaged on updating the DBacks listing this morning earlier than we began. I actually like Aracena, he’s added like seven ticks of velocity throughout the final two seasons, he touched 101, he has a plus-plus cutter. It’s distinctive late-inning stuff. He’s not as athletic as Clase, however that’s kinda what his stuff is like. He could possibly be up sooner or later this yr and, if not, then someday in 2027 for positive. Arizona has put itself in place to have a extremely actually nasty bullpen fairly quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia I’m nonetheless engaged on and can wrap once we’re completed right here. You need to examine again to the Dbacks listing on The Board in a couple of hours and his report might be up.

nb: Eric – earlier than Prospects Week begins, I’d prefer to be the primary to ask you, “Why do you hate my staff?”  With that out of the best way, my staff is the Phillies and primarily based on their offseason, it appears to be like like they’re relying on heavy contributions from Crawford and Painter this yr (and possibly Miller, I assume).  I do know you’ve got expressed concern about Crawford’s floor ball charge and Painter’s put up TJS supply.  Have you ever seen or heard something currently that alleviates or will increase these considerations?  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know that they’re “considerations” a lot as they’re simply true issues that (in Crawford’s case) traditionally don’t permit for large manufacturing, or (in Painter’s case) had been totally different and fewer efficient in ’25. Crawford and Painter are each going to have the ability to *do stuff*, Crawford within the 9 gap appears nice, Painter’s supply we are going to simply see the place it’s at when he pitches this spring.

Eric A Longenhagen: FWIW I wouldn’t exit of my strategy to overhaul Crawford’s swing, He’s proven gradual really feel for higher contact. It’s nonetheless extra floor balls than actually any large leaguer, however it’s trending higher simply by naturally letting him swing like he does, and I wouldn’t mess with it but.

Potato: Looks like Framber’s signing in all probability bumps Melton out of the rotation in Detroit, proper? Is he adequate to drive the problem sooner relatively than later?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has choices, he ought to preserve beginning, they’ll in all probability want him. You need to preserve him stretched out for so long as potential, solely ‘pen him in October.

Eric A Longenhagen: Melton I imply

llcrosby: Is Atlanta’s JR Ritchie largely a #4/#5 ceiling, or does he have the extra velocity capability to be a #3 or extra?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like how he strikes and he’s nonetheless projectable, he may throw tougher. Undecided the fastball form will permit his heater to essentially sing even when he does. We like him, he made the 100.

NFP: Any main takeaways or modifications to your course of popping out of 2025? Aside from including BG

Eric A Longenhagen: A few of it’s actually particular (proper on all the way down to the best way to look after my exterior exhausting drives, I attempted drawing pitch shapes in my notes final yr) and a few of it’s simply being prepared to regulate to modified processes but once more after the following CBA negotiation.

Oaktown Blues: Any prospects you’re wanting ahead to watching within the WBC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply dying to have tremendous aggressive baseball coming off a three-month tolerance break

Visitor: Yeah, prospects are enjoyable and all, however let’s ask the vital query: when’s the tutorial video about shaving your again with a motorbike lock?

Eric A Longenhagen: I modified from utilizing the previous, heavy locks with the loops on the finish (the sling through which the Norelco was held) to a easy one-piece cable lock that may’t be used as a, uh, multi-tasker.

Brett: Any pathway for Termarr to spice up his prospect standing and declare the Pirates 2B job over the following couple of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brendan and I a minimum of gave him a glance as a possible Prime 100 man. He’s nonetheless on our bubble as we’re sitting right here. We like him sufficient to think about the reply your questions “sure” even when we predict he’s extra a forty five than a 50.

Hits&Balls: Hey Eric, thanks for all the good prospect content material as regular! Can’t look ahead to prospect week…and hope you get a break afterwards.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, the season begins. That is the beginning of the factor, time to roll.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, ought to I be involved {that a} couple gamers dropped from their midseason rankings? Cunningham went from 50 FV to 45 FV and Drake went from 45+ in TEX system to 45. Is there something May you broaden upon the explanations for his or her drop from midseason? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I assumed Kayson had one of the best pure hit device in final yr’s class and 50’d him, Brendan thought he lacked the ability of physicality to be graded that prime proper now. I assumed Drake’s small college background was a sign he had extra development remaining and that he’d have some 2-3 WAR seasons down the street, Beeg thinks he’s extra a inventory no. 4/5.

Eric A Longenhagen: We nonetheless like each guys, to be clear

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Brendan’s Dbacks listing, I gave him my opinions as if I had been a scout supply he was tapping for work on the listing, the distinction in these grades is sufficiently small that it’d be incorrect to say we disagree about these gamers, however there’s a little hole there.

DR: As an O’s fan undecided I get the Blaze commerce. Aracena looks as if an arm with vital upside and Strowd at lease a semi-proven bullpen arm for a staff with reduction questions. Would IKF have labored as a reliable utility man and required much less of a useful resource expenditure?  Or did maybe the IKF signing make this extra vital?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blaze has extra juice than IKF by rather a lot, and performed fairly nicely final yr when the Dbacks wanted him to attempt totally different positions. I nonetheless assume Baltimore paid a steep value for him and that Arizona offered excessive on a man who I’ve had a fringe 40-man grade on for the final a number of years.

Oaktown Blues: How a lot sign is there in DSL stats? Are they kind of indicative of expertise than, say, school stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little or no sign, the stickiest stat from the DSL is contact charge.

Eric A Longenhagen: The play setting is so totally different than higher degree professional ball. School stats have their very own challenges however the distribution of the info is extra regular, the DSL is in all places.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, Cags. Caglianone crushed in school however his chase charge was nonetheless terrible. We all know he’s dangerous due to the chase from that, though he’s crushing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Within the DSL, a man won’t have a crimson flag chase charge however he might need horrible plate self-discipline and also you simply don’t realize it but as a result of the pitching high quality isn’t adequate to disclose it.

Galahad: The Yankees have had 30+ consecutive profitable seasons. How a lot would you say this has handicapped them in trems of participant improvement as they’re at all times drafting from the again finish?

Eric A Longenhagen: The curve for Anticipated WAR by draft choose, apart from some bizarre ones like Piazza’s choose, is formed such as you assume it’s formed, and so your premise holds water. But in addition, they did draft Aaron Decide the place they did, Mike Trout was picked the place he was, Will Smith and Bo Bichette the place they had been, Jackson Merrill the place he was…there are dudes nonetheless round, you’ve gotta discover them.

Eric A Longenhagen: And in addition all that profitable tends to create an aura of excellence that has its personal magnetism in free company and worldwide beginner scouting, so 30 years of profitable ought to yield extra in these areas than it in all probability has for NY the final short time.

DR: How overused is “generational” to explain prospects, significantly worldwide guys?  Examine NY being linked to a 13 yr lld

Eric A Longenhagen: Method method method overused, even within the sports activities media I eat, which isn’t as buck wild with hyperbole because the Shouty Reveals or doom scrolling apps.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like Dane Brugler isn’t calling Fernando Mendoza “generational”. Hell, has Bryce Harper even been “generational”? He’s superior however….

Eric A Longenhagen: A part of what I believe makes somebody “generationally proficient” is when it’s so apparent that we are able to all know and agree that it’s potential. Like Wemby. At 13 you possibly can’t know that

Eric A Longenhagen: Or they show it, like Trout.

baseballer8489: What do you’ve got on Luis Lara’s bat? He’s clearly received an awesome glove however questioning if his bat might be adequate to be an on a regular basis participant (or is he extra like Blake Perkins kind)? Regarded like he made some promising enhancements final season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra like Perkins (although a bit higher), powerful to see there being significant energy there.

Jacob: At this level, what are the ninetieth, fiftieth, and tenth percentile outcomes for Daniel Espino?

Eric A Longenhagen: tenth is he retains getting damage, the fiftieth is he’s damage a bunch nonetheless however is productive when wholesome (Hunter Harvey kind?) and the ninetieth is he magically is ready to keep wholesome as a result of the day after day of being a reliever is magically the proper match for his physique and he turns into peak Ryan Helsley.

Rodger: Who finally ends up with essentially the most CF reps in STL this yr? Scott, Church, Torres, free agent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scott

Beano: What’s the outlook for LA OFs – Z Hope and J De Paula? The LA OF is about for the yr however will these guys get an opportunity as damage replacements or Sept Name ups? Is there a brilliant future right here or a bleak nightfall?

Eric A Longenhagen: These guys are good however I don’t assume both of them is a sensible 2026 debut

Rodger: Is Jamie Arnold a quick monitor candidate this yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. If he’s throwing strikes along with his fastball once more, I believe the A’s are gonna be good and motivated for him to maneuver rapidly.

Homer: What occurred to Didier Fuentes within the majors? A command problem or an absence of a great secondary?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra the latter, and too inexperienced to succeed at that degree, a bit rushed. We nonetheless like him, he’s making the 100.

Cub Fan and Bud Man: How does TJ Nichols stack up is there Aceability in there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on my listing of fellows to examine for prime 100 consideration this weekend. Ace? Virtually definitely not as I outline it.

Tyler: I think about data is proscribed on the brand new INTL guys, however is there anybody that stands out to you as somebody you need to be early on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Angeibel Gomez and Randy Santana are the 2 guys whose reviews learn as stronger than their bonues.

Eric A Longenhagen: Grades and reviews right here: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

beanbong: Is Willy Adames an inexpensive median consequence comp for Konnor Griffin? Higher bat however worse glove than Adames?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I believe that is typically truthful. I believe “give a f*ck Hanley Ramirez” is what I mentioned on our name this week.

J36T: Are you anxious about Kendry Chourio sticking as a starter resulting from his measurement?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s undoubtedly a skinnier man, however he’s additionally too younger to say definitively. He’s an awesome prospect who might be 3+ years away, give it time to breath.

Jim: Which farm system do you assume improved essentially the most this winter? Which system misplaced essentially the most expertise?

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington and Tampa, Miami received quantity however I don’t love the blokes they received, Arizona and St. Louis.

Eric A Longenhagen: Misplaced expertise? Baltimore (however that they had an excellent deep system, it’s nice) Houston misplaced some good dudes, Texas and Seattle

Visitor: Fascinated with a man like TJ Rumfield, do you ever really feel the business wants to regulate what is taken into account good at 1b? 10-20 years in the past it felt like there have been a bigger variety of mashers at 1b however lately it seems like there’s 5. Looks like a man like Rumfield and even Shanuel is perhaps higher to lock in relatively than enjoying carousel with conventional varieties like Rowdy Tellez

Eric A Longenhagen: The factor is that the place at all times has a Vogelbach/Rowdy/Aguilar/Cron/Voit bunch of fellows of their  productive prime, in addition to the Hanley, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, no matter varieties tricking down from different positions. I agree that Rumfield is a giant leaguer who may have a peak like a few of these lesser names, however these guys are 40s.

Eric A Longenhagen: 40 doesn’t imply “bust” it means 40

J36T: Thanks for what you guys do right here.  Any participant that you just stuffed into the Prime 100 {that a} yr in the past you by no means would have thought that might occur?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Sal Stewart.

Eric A Longenhagen: A yr in the past I assumed his hit device would get uncovered, I 40’d him.

2131, 1312: Who would you say has essentially the most aesthetically pleasing swing of any present prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Benge

Mas Datos, Por Favor: Commenter Matt calculates farm worth because the staff lists drop, however may the FG staff add a 2026 model that shows the present groups a minimum of as they’re added?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, after Prospect Week I’ll get with Meg and Dolinar to make that occur.

Philly FAN: Gage Wooden pitches in our MLB PEN by Mid August True or False

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe you even nailed the approximate date

HS: Ideas on Forret/Dinges for Bello in a 20 staff dynasty?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bryan Bello? Take the large leaguer, homie.

Mr. Burrito: Following prospects is about hope, so studying your work makes me really feel good. Thanks. …Do orgs have totally different success charges after gamers attain, say, AA? In different phrases,  if 4 50 FV gamers had been within the Angels system and 4 had been within the Dodgers system, which staff would wind up with extra MLB starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an fascinating query. I think about the reply is sure for a similar common causes that apply to all prospects, however the notion {that a} staff is perhaps higher or worse at actualizing extra mature athletes isn’t one I’ve requested myself.

Dodgers Blue: Eric, finally yr’s evaluate you gave Dylan Beavers a 30/50 hit device rank.  Now a yr later, the place would you say he’s gotten to on that scale?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50/50

Pumpsie Inexperienced: Is Brayden Taylor simply roster filler now or is there any hope for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He can actually play protection and he’s gonna get to some energy. I’ve had a forty five grade on him the entire time, I’m staying there.

drplantwrench: i feel Christian Moore is slated to have a breakout season with the angels… am i being overly naive like i’m each february?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume so.

Gamblin Oscars: May Jhonny Degree ascend to Prime 100 this season ?

Eric A Longenhagen: We like him sufficient to do it now. And Yolfran (shock!)

Bugsy: Ideas on Florentino of Pirates. Probabilities he will be prime 10 prospect by finish of yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a bit wealthy for me. Good hitter, although.

Potato: Is the highest 100 set? Or are y’all nonetheless making tweaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: We have now like 70 blurbs written and doubtless one other 70 or so within the combine to both make the listing or not.

Josh: Any dope from the MLK weekend occasions?

Eric A Longenhagen: Children taking BP in January is just not at all times one of the best look. Lotta greater, extra bodily youngsters threw fairly good bullpens. Dexter McLeon Jr. stands method, method out.

Kuya Al: In the case of Alfredo Duno’s defensive play, do you see him rising sufficient to be a full-time large league catcher, or is he an Augustin Ramirez kind?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe he’s a future plus defender. Freak athlete for his measurement, want his throwing had been extra constant.

Dodgers Blue: Eric, is there a specific a part of your each day scouting life that you just take pleasure in greater than the components; ie: watching pitching performances, seeing hitters mash (or technical hitters use all the area), athletic fielders making unbelievable performs – or just discovering a brand new, lesser recognized identify within the business and attending to be one of many first on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Laughing about no matter loopy factor occurs on the area that day with the scouts or different writers. From bee swarms to weirdly aggressive umpires.

Eric A Longenhagen: (After which discovering new faces)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay of us, maintaining it tight to an hour this week as a result of I’ve numerous stuff to do. My subsequent chat would be the day the Prime 100 comes out, Monday the sixteenth.