On Second Thought: Giants Signal Free Agent Luis Arraez

After getting what amounted to substitute degree manufacturing at second base final season, the Giants have a brand new man for the keystone. The excellent news is that he’s a three-time batting champion, and he’s not outrageously costly. The dangerous information is that these days he hasn’t been an extremely productive hitter regardless of his excessive batting averages, and what’s extra, second base might be a stretch. Nevertheless it shakes out, on Saturday the Giants agreed to phrases with free agent Luis Arraez on a one-year, $12 million deal.

Arraez, who will flip 29 on April 9, spent final season and many of the earlier one with the Padres after being acquired from the Marlins in a Might 4, 2024 commerce. Whereas he received his third straight batting title in 2024 and made his third consecutive All-Star staff, his time with San Diego was considered one of diminishing returns on each side of the ball. Final 12 months once more he led the NL with 181 hits, however his .292/.327/.392 slash line solely amounted to a 104 wRC+, the bottom mark of his profession and down from a 109 wRC+ (on .314/.346/.392 hitting) in 2024. By comparability, he hit for a 130 wRC+ (.316/.375/.420) when he received the AL batting title with the Twins in 2022 and a 131 wRC+ (.354/.393/.469) when he received the NL batting title in ’23. He slipped from being roughly a three-win participant (6.1 WAR in 2022–23) to a one-win participant (2.0 WAR in 2024–25).

Arraez is an odd duck, an anachronism in that the issues he’s finest at don’t match this historic second notably nicely. At a time when house run and strikeout charges are close to their all-time highs and batting averages nearer to an all-time low, he’s the sport’s most contact-oriented hitter, in addition to the lively chief in batting common (.317). That makes him a enjoyable participant to theorize about, as colleague Davy Andrews did when he lately contemplated the potential for Arraez signing with the Rockies, whose spacious ballpark would’ve offered him with essentially the most room to run up his batting common on balls in play by dumping single after single in entrance of outfielders enjoying deep.

Arraez’s talent set makes him a participant of statistical extremes. Final 12 months, he whiffed and struck out much less usually than any certified hitter (5.3% and three.1% of the time, respectively) whereas additionally squaring the ball up extra continuously than anybody (42.6% of all swings). However one drawback for Arraez — who’s not a giant man, listed at simply 5-foot-10 and 175 kilos — is that he didn’t put a cost into the ball fairly often. His 62.6-mph common bat velocity was the majors’ lowest amongst qualifiers, as was his 16.7% hard-hit charge. His 1.1% barrel charge didn’t make it out of the primary percentile both, and his 86.1-mph common exit velocity positioned in simply the sixth percentile. He was in comparable territory in 2024, however in ’23 he mustered a bit extra oomph, averaging an 88.3-mph exit velo (twenty ninth percentile) and three.5% barrel charge (ninth percentile). Whereas these aren’t terribly spectacular numbers, they produced an anticipated batting common of .327 and an anticipated slugging proportion of .461; final 12 months he was all the way down to a relatively meek .287 xBA and a .358 xSLG.

The principle motive Arraez went unsigned till the tip of January is the mixture of his protection and his match onto a roster. Throughout his seven-year main league profession, he’s performed all 4 infield spots, however he’s moved down the defensive spectrum quite shortly. He spent most of his tenure with the Padres enjoying first base or DH — I’ll get to the small print under — however in his first journey by free company, he particularly sought out a touchdown spot the place he may return to second base frequently. In accordance to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser, “San Francisco landed Arráez with assurances he would play second base; he turned down multi-year presents from golf equipment that pegged him as a DH.”

Even at his 2025 degree of offense, Arraez’s bat is an effective match for second base. Main league second basemen mixed for only a 90 wRC+ in 2025, so a 104 wRC+ is close to elite there; solely 5 groups obtained a 104 wRC+ or higher out of their second basemen. The Padres, nonetheless with a lineup made largely out of shortstops, didn’t want a second baseman; they already had a really competent one in Jake Cronenworth, so that they used Arraez there simply 14 instances final 12 months, in comparison with 117 at first base and 29 at DH. For the reason that bar for offense is way greater at first base (the place main leaguers averaged a 109 wRC+) and DH (110 wRC+), Arraez’s bat wasn’t as helpful because it might need been elsewhere.

The true drawback is that regardless of the place you set him, Arraez’s glove is one thing of a legal responsibility, and has been for a while. Right here’s a take a look at his defensive metrics over the previous 4 seasons, at three totally different positions:

That’s not fairly. A better take a look at the Statcast numbers exhibits that as a primary baseman, Arraez has struggled on performs to his proper, with -7 outs above common when shifting laterally towards third base final 12 months, and -4 in the identical class in 2024. At second base, his massive concern has been coming in on the ball, with -10 OAA in that class in 2023, and -6 in ’24. (He was common in final 12 months’s very small pattern.) His points are compounded by an absence of a robust throwing arm; based on Statcast, his arm energy primarily based on the common velocity of his aggressive throws positioned him in simply the twenty sixth percentile, and he’s been within the thirty fifth percentile or decrease every of the previous 4 seasons. He was within the ninetieth percentile circa 2021 whereas splitting time between second and third base, however for one motive or one other simply hasn’t been the identical since.

The Giants went 81-81 final 12 months whereas utilizing 4 gamers at second, specifically Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt, Christian Koss, and Brett Correctly. That quartet mixed for a sickly 73 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR, each of which ranked twenty seventh within the majors. Not one of the 4 gamers distinguished himself as a second baseman, although Schmitt, a 2020 second-round decide, did hit .237/.305/.401 (98 wRC+) with 12 house runs total whereas additionally recognizing at first and third. He’s seemingly ticketed for a utility function that would embody taking begins at second in opposition to lefties — the lefty-swinging Arraez has only a 90 wRC+ for his profession in opposition to them, in comparison with a 126 mark in opposition to righties — and serving as a late-inning defensive substitute.

With Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge each on the roster, the Giants have already got first base and DH lined, and seem like banking on new infield coach Ron Washington to assist Arraez man a harder place (Inform him, Wash). Throughout his second go-round as an infield coach with Oakland in 2015–16, he helped present Giants third baseman Matt Chapman, then a prime prospect, turn into one of many sport’s elite defenders on the scorching nook. (He’s since received 5 Gold Gloves and one Platinum one). Washington additionally molded future Gold Glove winner Marcus Semien. In his first stint with the A’s (1996–2006), Washington helped third baseman Eric Chavez win six Gold Gloves. He additionally spent seven seasons (2017–23) because the infield coach of the Braves, and Atlanta third baseman Austin Riley has credited Washington with turning him right into a plus defender (by DRS anyway, as Riley has +20 DRS for his profession at third however -21 FRV). Whereas I wouldn’t anticipate Arraez to hitch that honor roll, I wouldn’t dismiss the prospect of Washington’s guiding him to some enchancment.

At the very least on the offensive facet, the projection programs are optimistic about an Arraez rebound, with our Depth Charts forecast projecting him for a .302/.343/.397 (109 wC+) line and a couple of.5 WAR. That may be a fantastic return for the Giants’ $12 million funding. For what it’s value, Arraez ranked thirty seventh on our High 50 Free Brokers listing in November, with Ben Clemens estimating that the three-time batting champ would wind up with a one-year, $11 million deal, whereas our median crowdsource got here in at two years and $28 million.

All informed, whereas Arraez could also be a little bit of an ungainly match for second base, the particulars listed below are sufficient to assist mitigate the danger. Within the massive image, the Giants selected this winter to avoid long-term free agent offers whereas attempting to remain beneath the primary aggressive stability tax threshold of $244 million. All six free brokers they’ve signed to main league offers have been on both one-year contracts (starter Tyler Mahle, relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges, and Arraez) or two-year ones (middle fielder Harrison Bader and starter Adrian Houser); per RosterResource, that’s left them with a $232.7 million tax payroll, giving them about $11 million of area earlier than bumping up in opposition to the brink. These aren’t dangerous strikes — San Francisco’s 84-win ZiPS projection is the second-highest whole within the NL West — however they’re not high-impact ones. We’ll see in the event that they’re sufficient for a Giants staff that has completed inside 4 video games of .500 in 5 of the previous six seasons to mount a problem for a playoff spot.