White Sox Signal Seranthony Domínguez

Final week, the White Sox admitted defeat of their dealing with of Luis Robert Jr.’s contract, delivery him out to the Mets for 2 lottery tickets and wage aid. That wage aid will need to have been burning a gap of their pocket, although. Or maybe somebody checked out their books, stated “Guys, we play in Chicago however we’re projected for the bottom payroll in baseball and persons are going to speak,” and handed GM Chris Getz a listing of gamers who hadn’t but signed. In any case, Seranthony Domínguez and the White Sox have agreed to phrases on a two-year deal value $20 million, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported.

The suitable-handed Domínguez isn’t any stranger to high-pressure aid work. In each the 2022 and 2023 postseasons, he appeared in mid- and high-leverage conditions for the Phillies, and he dealt with them fairly properly (1.13 ERA, 0.78 FIP in 16 innings). In 2024, Philadelphia didn’t have a lot use for his providers after his sluggish begin, and they also despatched him and Cristian Pache to the Orioles for platoon bat Austin Hays (whom they promptly non-tendered after the season). The O’s employed Domínguez for a yr (he made two appearances for them within the playoffs), then dealt him and money to the Blue Jays in alternate for Juaron Watts-Brown, a 40-FV aid prospect. He pitched for the Jays in October, and memorably had some ups and downs of their long term.

In different phrases, playoff groups have been using Domínguez for years, however they haven’t been putting notably excessive significance on his efficiency. He’s twice been traded to contenders in deadline offers, and at no level did his suitors supply a lot to get him. These groups thought-about him a mid-leverage possibility; even the Blue Jays had him as a second-tier possibility out of their weak-link bullpen that flailed its method by October.

Intriguingly, Domínguez’s most up-to-date run at a hoop was keyed by a model new splitter that he threw 17% of the time in 2025. It propelled him to a brand new profession excessive strikeout price. Spectacular! The associated fee? Yeah, you gained’t like the fee – a career-high stroll price, and one which elevated by a whopping 5.6 share factors year-over-year. For comparability, his strikeout price went up by 3.6%. The brand new splitter is just about unhittable – and that’s factor, as a result of Domínguez solely landed it within the strike zone 1 / 4 of the time. It’s an excellent pitch, however it doesn’t change my total view of his expertise stage.

You would possibly hear that Domínguez is a FIP-beater. Certainly, he’s posted a 3.78 ERA prior to now three years, as in comparison with a 4.28 FIP. By FIP-based WAR, he’s not even one of many prime 100 relievers in baseball over the previous three years; he’s 136th, to be exact. By RA9-WAR, which cares about outcomes on the sector, although, he’s… one hundred and thirty fifth, principally the identical. That’s as a result of his “FIP-beating” is definitely simply loads of unearned runs scoring. Eight of the 30 runs he allowed to attain in 2025 had been unearned, which is able to push your ERA method down and masks the true quantity of runs in your ledger.

That’s particularly worrying when you think about that Domínguez acquired a ton of assist defensively. Per Statcast, fielders enjoying behind him had been seven outs above common, the 14th-best mark in baseball. Everybody forward of him on that checklist pitched not less than 50 extra innings than he did. On a per-inning foundation, no main leaguer acquired higher defensive assist than Domínguez did final yr. It places the FIP-beating in perspective; many elements go into beating or falling wanting ERA estimators, and plenty of of them are fully exterior of a pitcher’s management.

Put that every one collectively, and Domínguez appears to me like a fairly common reliever. That’s not meant to be a mark towards him; there’s at all times loads of work for common relievers in a league floundering for innings. That’s presumably Chicago’s plan right here, in truth; maintain him round for a couple of months, let him shut, and hope {that a} first rate ERA and a few shiny saves make him a horny deadline acquisition for some contender. If that contender provides the Sox the modern-day equal of Gleyber Torres or John Smoltz, or no matter well-known commerce blunder you wish to reference, then bam! That’s what the White Sox are going for right here.

Now, is that going to occur? I don’t assume so. Domínguez is the thirty third reliever to signal for $2 million or extra this winter. He’s getting the Twelfth-highest AAV, the eighth-highest assure. Usually talking, relievers who signal this late within the course of are reclamation initiatives or bargains. There’s a fairly clear sample to free company – early signees beat their projections, whereas late signees fall brief. That’s not bizarre; sometimes, the fellows who signal late are doing so as a result of nobody supplied them what they wished earlier within the winter. Domínguez beat his projections handsomely regardless of his late signing date, which is unusual.

The rationale isn’t that wild if you concentrate on it lengthy sufficient, although. It’s the White Sox tax. Would you, a reliable main league baseball participant, willingly comply with play for a workforce that’s actively attempting to be one of many worst golf equipment within the majors? Presumably not, not less than not if all else had been equal. To signal Domínguez, the White Sox made all else unequal; they supplied him a pleasant fats sack full of cash.

Like I stated, I believe that the Sox had some ulterior motives right here. Their payroll was so comically low after buying and selling Robert that I think about there was some inner consternation about how that will look. That’s how you find yourself giving one in all your workforce’s greatest free agenct contracts of the 2020s to a solid-but-not-elite reliever once you’re a 100-loss workforce. If we’re evaluating this deal based mostly on making the South Siders look much less penny-pinching, it has to get excessive marks. Domínguez goes to be greater than 10% of the membership’s payroll this yr, one in all solely three guys making eight figures. The Sox have a much less egregious wage dedication in the present day than they did instantly after buying and selling Robert, and that positively counts for one thing.

In the event that they’re attempting to win on the baseball area with this transfer, although, I don’t fairly get it. I might be incorrect, after all. That’s a key factor to recollect once you learn evaluation of a baseball determination. I don’t really know what’s going to occur, any greater than the gamers on the sector do. Domínguez might be significantly better or a lot worse than our projections. However with that caveat in thoughts, I believe it’s fairly clear that the White Sox mustn’t anticipate an enormous return for Domínguez on the deadline.

Why not? As a result of he’s been traded on the final two deadlines! We positively know the worth of Seranthony Domínguez in a commerce. It’s really one of many best-known commerce costs; he’s twice been swapped to a contender with a weak bullpen, and twice the buying and selling workforce has gotten a mere pittance in return. The O’s even paid down a few of his wage of their deal final yr, and that was for a contract with a decrease wage than this one and that featured no second-year assure.

Now, the Sox can showcase Domínguez a bit greater than his earlier employers. Now we have him penciled in as their nearer, a job that he couldn’t fairly anticipate on a playoff contender. They’re going to highlight him as a lot as they’ll, and when one other workforce calls to ask about anybody on the squad, they’re going to have to listen to the pitch on Domínguez first. That’s why dangerous groups signal good relievers – to ship them out.

I’m a realist, although. My greatest expectation for what Domínguez will fetch in commerce is closely knowledgeable by what he has already fetched in commerce. If he’s dealt at this deadline, I’d anticipate the Sox to retain loads of his wage and in addition not get a ton in return. This isn’t a fringe prediction. It’s a straightforward one to make, based mostly on a transparent sample. I’d be completely floored if a impartial observer noticed it meaningfully in another way.

Possibly that makes me sound like a pessimist, however I really assume that this deal is nice for everybody. Domínguez is clearly the most important beneficiary – he simply acquired $20 million! That greater than doubles his profession earnings, mere months after working a 22% stroll price within the playoffs. How on the earth may he say no to that?! It’s a straightforward win.

The Sox are additionally beneficiaries, as a result of it’s exhausting to concentrate on their excessive aversion to spending once they’re forking out properly above expectations to signal somebody. Are you mad at them for not placing product on the sector? Effectively, they spent all of their wage financial savings on a man who was within the World Collection simply final yr. What else are they presupposed to do? On the scoreboard of public opinion, I wager you the Sox come out forward. Between this and the Munetaka Murakami deal from earlier within the winter, they’re actual free company gamers once more for the primary time shortly. That positively counts for one thing, particularly for Getz, who’s in his third yr working the workforce after the primary two seasons produced 221 losses.

Even the remainder of the league is a beneficiary. I believe it’s fairly clear that no contenders had been seeking to spend this sort of cash on Seranthony Domínguez. In the event that they had been, they’d have signed him already! However now they’ll wait till July and commerce for him in the event that they’re within the playoff race. It’s not going to price them a ton, most probably. Heck, if previous is prologue, the Sox must assume a good portion of his wage in a commerce. What’s going to it price to accumulate him? A believable future main leaguer who’s nonetheless not a prime prospect, one thing that groups are perennially completely satisfied to commerce for bullpen assist.

So don’t consider this deal as an overpay by Chicago, although solely by accounting it’s that. Consider it as proof that not everybody acts to maximise their long-term on-field anticipated worth with each transfer. I’m sure everybody concerned is pleased with the best way this one went down. Can you actually ask for something extra?