Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/16/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, people. Good morning from the kitchen island in Tempe, I’m stoked to see some guys throw bullpens and take BP at the moment. First day of college feeling and all that.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve received a tough out at 11 (I’ve a radio hit to do after which wanna hustle to Diablo for the Dream Collection exercises) so let’s get rolling.

Jim: The place does Colome rank amongst A’s prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: In all probability 4th or fifth

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take Leap and Morales over him for certain, possibly Barnett belongs with these guys. Arnold v Colome or possibly one thing like Montero v Colome are good questions tbd

go playing cards: what do you make of joshua baez’s contact enhancements in 2025? outdoors probability at him being stuffed for 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m fairly skeptical. Undoubtedly an “arrow up” man who made adjustments which have labored for him, he has substantial uncooked energy, however his stiffness and the look of his swing… simply doesn’t go the visible scent take a look at to me.

Scotty: Learn that Alejandro Rosario simply had TJS this month… unhappy to see. Did you ever get any extra information about what triggered his surgical procedure timeline to maintain getting pushed again?

Eric A Longenhagen: He had a separate medical difficulty that required consideration and restoration earlier than he might have the TJ

Rays: Who is that this Clarke man we simply received?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fifth rounder out of Harvard, low-90s/sweeper man with a very good wanting arm motion, changeup appeared prefer it was getting higher late in 2024 and, seems, it was. It performed like a plus pitch in ’25. He had success as a starter and reached Double-A….

Eric A Longenhagen: His fastball performs down a bit, and his command is slightly south of common, however this man was on a 2027 debut trajectory already, and now joins an org that’s just lately higher at growing guys than LAA.

PinstripedPride: Jasson Dominguez was a extremely ranked prospect however had an up and down rookie 12 months. Are you extra down on him now? Do you assume the facility will come?

Eric A Longenhagen: He *has* energy, it’s nearly whether or not he hits sufficient to get to all of it. He was graduated as a 50-grade prospect right here and that’s nonetheless what I are likely to assume he’ll be, plus-power LF with beneath common protection, common LF general.

Se Acabo!: Any shot I can get any Juan Cabada ideas earlier than the Cubs checklist? Looks as if heaps to love

Eric A Longenhagen: I heard via the Arizona Phil grapevine that the Cubs have a gaggle in AZ already for minicamp, and he’s one among them. So possibly in per week or two once I’ve snooped round there I’ll have extra full ideas. He’s a pleasant prospect.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Any curiosity within the Eagles OC place?

Insert Witty Identify Right here: What sort of prospect might the Phils get for Bohm?  Anybody worthwhile or lotto tickets simply to dump the wage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eagles OC ideas: The top coach and GM there have accomplished an objectively good job, and in addition a factor they will’t get proper regardless of many makes an attempt is hiring the precise OC.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Bohm. I wouldn’t commerce him. Don’t get fatigued with that man, take into consideration Yandy Diaz and his profession. Give me a man making like 90% zone contact who has Bohm’s long run athletic projection. He’s gonna be a 10mil arb man, even when he’s only a 1.7sh WAR man once more, that’s a discount. I feel he has actual commerce worth, not only a man the place the wage cripples your return. Our projections have him as a 2 WAR participant in ’26 and I’m inclined to agree.

Visitor: Are you able to go alongside some potential sleepers to look at for within the Jays system?

Eric A Longenhagen: We expect Victor Arias has actual instruments, I feel a wholesome TJ Brock may very well be a superb seventh/eighth inning kind, we like Elaineiker Coronado some as a deep sleeper.

drplantwrench: i wanna speak concerning the greatest information of yesterday: what do you consider the angels getting Josh Lowe?  and do you assume this impacts Rada being known as up this 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel Lowe mashes righties nicely sufficient to be an efficient platoon piece. He provides to their general depth and compliments a righty-heavy Trout/Soler/Adell group fairly properly…

Eric A Longenhagen: Rada may come up in September simply to take a look at him. He must be placed on the 40 after the season, he might come up in late August  Sept and get his toes moist with out burning an choice.

Mookie: Hey Eric, how would you line up the Purple Sox beginning rotation with the Suarez signing? Do you assume odds are very excessive one among Payton Tolle or Connelly Early will get traded now for infield assist? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Crochet
Sonny
Ranger
Bello
Tolle/Early/Harrison spring competitors…

Eric A Longenhagen: I do assume, if I’m them, I’d be trying to commerce from my pitching depth to accumulate an infielder. I nonetheless assume they’re a pure match for Ketel (who I don’t need the D’Backs to commerce) but when I’m AZ in that case I’m tryna construct a package deal round Bello and a Kristian Campbell purchase low and Early, like I’m buying and selling an MVP candidate so that you had higher blow me away

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Early greater than Tolle now, I feel. Tolle’s breaking ball high quality limits his ceiling, Early a extra fluid athlete…

NFP: do you continue to see Kiefer Lord having a 60/70 FB? he got here again final season nonetheless sitting 94-95 with comparatively little dev time

Eric A Longenhagen: (yah yah)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve 94-96 scraped 98, 6ft6 extension, 77 inch launch top, 10% swinging strike fee on 74 pitches.

Eric A Longenhagen: too small a pattern to actually belief the SwngStr% however that’s common for a FB

Eric A Longenhagen: so extra like 50 proper now and let’s watch the tape to see how the tremendous tall dev undertaking seems to be as an athlete. Ideally wanna see extra extension on a man that massive as proof of the athlete.

Potato: I’m each philosophically high-quality with the Dodgers signing Tucker, and in addition assume it’s dangerous for baseball. Sigh.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m kind of in you camp and concern the course discourse will take because it pertains to the wage cap.

Se Acabo!: Liam Peterson appears essentially the most bodily proficient RHP on this draft. Large, cell, lengthy observe document, wholesome, great arm energy, selection, energy, spin…High 5 choose or do Cubs have hope within the teenagers? Is it a matter of strikes this Spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Betcha he goes prime 10

Dodgers Once more?: What are yor ideas on Sasaki after he pitched successfully out of the bullpen? Do you assume he’ll be a viable mid-rotation piece?

Eric A Longenhagen: You see the place the command is that this spring, however that man appeared like a reliever final 12 months.

brad lipton: Is there a chart or desk that provides some measure of profession (or first 5 years) of MLB manufacturing based mostly (e.g., WAR) on FV upon preliminary callup to MLB?  I’m serious about this in relation to easy methods to worth a 40 FV participant relative to 45 FV or 50 FV.  Does three or 4 40 FV gamers approximate a 50 FV participant worth (from a statistical standpoint)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m slightly confused by the wording of your first query however I feel I see what you’re getting at and the reply is sure.

Eric A Longenhagen: There have been quite a lot of tutorials posts and updates to the “FV means we anticipate this many WAR, or this type of function on a roster” canon.

Eric A Longenhagen: The very first google consequence when looking out is that this one: The New FanGraphs Scouting Primer | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: You possibly can have a look at any given place’s leaderboard over 5-6 years and see the expertise curve throughout the WAR distribution: Main League Leaderboards – 2020 to 2025 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Or do your personal WAR per 600 PA calc and see it that approach.

Eric A Longenhagen: To your second query:

Eric A Longenhagen: Craig Edwards analysis was that the gamers who may be begins and stick round for some time are many instances extra precious than the 40-grade function gamers who come and go earlier than they’re deep into arb. You possibly can see the valuations by FV tier on the Farm System rating web page: Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

JC: Hello Eric, first time very long time. Loved the newest worldwide articles and rating. My query: With these gamers agreeing to handshake offers earlier and earlier in age, I’m curious who has been the largest hole in Signing Bonus to Precise Expertise on signing day in your opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: All through the method I’d have instructed you it was Jeancer Custodio, however he signed for a lot lower than the data I had indicated he would. The actual proper reply might be that one of many 3+ million greenback guys isn’t going to hit in any respect.  and we’ll discover out who that’s over the following twelve months. My reply sitting right here now’s that the trajectory of Gregory Pio’s scouting stories and Yeison Horton’s lack of projection are kinda scary?

Eric A Longenhagen: On the flip facet I like Randy Santana

Jonathan: Do you assume the largest hurdle conserving folks from precisely projecting 14-year-old DR youngsters’ frames at maturity is the relative lack of awareness about weight loss plan, prior weight coaching, household athleticism, and many others.?  Should you wished to create a mannequin to foretell how our bodies fill out, what knowledge would you embrace apart from age, top, weight, shoulder width, leg size, no matter else scouts usually use to find out projectability?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel it’s actually every thing about them at that younger of an age

Eric A Longenhagen: And who would need to be monitoring that type of stuff that early? It’s macabre to me. There are groups who aren’t down for that sh*t and simply don’t take part in that phase of the expertise pool.

Eric A Longenhagen: The factor that’s optimistic concerning the present worldwide system, in my view, is that the gamers have company to decide on their group in a approach the draft doesn’t permit. However when you’re deciding at 13, can we even name {that a} selection? Might 13 12 months outdated me be something aside from coerced?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m gonna do that radio hit on MLB Community SiriusXM now

Eric A Longenhagen: after which go watch bullpens.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh! Brendan is gonna begin his personal chat within the close to future. So that you’ll have double the prospect chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: See y’all subsequent Friday, identical Bat time identical bat channel