Not so a few years in the past, a tongue-in-cheek chorus went like this: “Nice commerce for the Rays. Who did they get?” With that in thoughts…
… a couple of days earlier than the July 30, 2024 deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays dealt Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners in change for prospects Brody Hopkins and Aidan Smith. I requested Erik Neander to look again at the transaction once I talked to him throughout November’s GM Conferences.
“It was a choice that was fairly clear,” Tampa Bay’s president of baseball operations instructed me. “That deal was about timing. Seattle was getting somebody to make a right away contribution — they’ve gotten that — and from our aspect it was a deal that was most likely going to take years to appreciate the total potential of.
“With Brody Hopkins, we expect the world of the arm expertise,” continued Neander. “He was a two-way man, extremely athletic, and he’s persevering with to make strides and discover the command. We imagine that he’s somebody who can pitch in the course of a rotation, if not increased. I’m somewhat shocked that he doesn’t get extra consideration than he does.”
Hopkins, a 23-year-old right-hander who was taken within the sixth spherical of the 2023 draft out of Winthrop College, logged a 2.72 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and a 28.7% strikeout fee over 116 innings with Double-A Montgomery this previous season.
Smith, a 21-year-old outfielder who was drafted out of a Lucas, Texas highschool the identical yr, slashed .237/.331/.388 with 14 house runs and a 114 wRC+ over 459 plate appearances — he additionally swiped 41 bases in 47 makes an attempt — with Excessive-A Bowling Inexperienced.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It appears to be like such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply upset.
We get it. You need to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we would prefer to level out a couple of of the nice explanation why it is best to turn into a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We can’t bug you with this advert, or some other.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get reduce off.
3. Darkish mode and Basic mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click knowledge exports! Export our projections and leaderboards to your private tasks.
6. Take away the photographs on the house web page! (Truthfully, this does not sound so nice to us, however some folks needed it, and we like to provide our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We now have handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections accessible for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a personalized yr finish overview! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this yr, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, solely for Members.
10. Assist help FanGraphs and our complete employees! Our Members present us with crucial assets to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you will contemplate a Membership as we speak, for your self or as a present! And we notice this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite advertisements on this article. We did not need to overdo it.
“Aidan Smith didn’t have pretty much as good of a yr with the bat as we’d have appreciated, however he continued to make excessive strides on the bases,” Neander stated of the 2023 fourth-rounder. “Defensively, he’s a simple plus centerfielder. Offensively, some issues have gone off the rails somewhat bit, however now we have numerous confidence in a number of the changes he’s been making within the Fall League. We really feel that his bat goes to get again on monitor, and that he’s going to be a well-rounded participant for us.”
As for Arozarena, he has just about carried out as anticipated with the Mariners. Since being swapped to Seattle, the 30-year-old Cuban outfielder has mashed 32 house runs, pilfered 35 bases, put up a 121 wRC+, and amassed 3.8 WAR.
“I’m blissful for Randy,” Neander stated of the 2020-2024 Rays mainstay. “Once more, we knew that numerous endurance was going to be required — how the commerce was going to work out — whereas for the opposite aspect it was going to be proper in entrance of us. However we felt that it was a commerce we needed to make. We’re excited in regards to the guys we received within the deal.”
Hopkins is presently rated the highest prospect within the Tampa Bay system by Baseball America, whereas Smith is ranked eighth. MLB Pipeline is barely much less bullish, with the previous ranked third-best and the latter Tenth-best. Our personal Rays rankings are forthcoming.
———
RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Wilyer Abreu is 6 for 14 towards Chris Bassitt.
Eugenio Suárez is 7 for 13 towards Sonny Grey.
Ronald Acuña Jr is 8 for 14 towards Adrian Houser.
Luis Arraez is 9 for 12 towards Kevin Gausman.
Jose Altuve is 10 for 19 towards Justin Verlander.
———
How nicely does the Minnesota Twins’ mind belief know the opposite 29 groups when it comes to pitcher-characteristics preferences, and the way would possibly that affect commerce calls for? As an example, a rival membership could particularly like low arm slots and experience, or maybe they’re enamored by plus extension. If stated group expresses curiosity in a pitcher who possesses one or each of these these qualities, would the Twins possibly ask for extra in return than they in any other case would?
“I don’t know that it’s fairly that particular,” Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey replied once I posed that query to him throughout the Winter Conferences. “Each group now has broadened their likes to a point. You do know that sure groups are going to worth a sure profile pitcher extra. Typically it’s a four-seam fastball man with high-spin traits, or sure stuff-over-command sorts. We are likely to know who they could ask for, but it surely’s not all the time that we’re providing the sorts of gamers we expect they could like. In the event that they ask for them, we’ll speak about them.”
What in regards to the ask-for-in-return a part of the equation? As that was the crux of my inquiry, I adopted up in quest of a extra particular reply.
“I do know what you’re getting at,” stated Twins GM Jeremy Zoll, who was sitting alongside Falvey. “I believe we’re simply making an attempt to make the most effective analysis we are able to on what we expect the market ought to be for any given participant we’re getting requested on. If it seems that it’s as a result of there was a point of overlap and intersection… it’s not this concept of, ’Nicely, they’re simply overvaluing these gamers with these traits, and in flip we’re going to attempt to reap the benefits of that.” You’re nonetheless hoping to search out overlap, however we’re simply making an attempt to make the most effective name on what the market is.”
———
A quiz:
When Miguel Cabrera (or probably Félix Hernández earlier than him) is elected to the Corridor of Fame, he’ll turn into simply the second Venezuelan-born participant to be enshrined in Cooperstown. Who was the primary? (A touch: he was voted in by the BBWAA in 1984.)
———
NEWS NOTES
SABR has begun to announce the featured audio system for its annual analytics convention, which might be held in Phoenix from February 27-March 1. Named so far are David Adler, Derek Carty, Jason Collette, Vince Gennaro, and Eno Sarris. Extra info will be discovered right here.
Johnny Damon, Jon Lester, and Mike Timlin have been introduced as the latest members of the Boston Crimson Sox Corridor of Fame. Additionally inducted might be Sherm Feller, who was Fenway Park’s public tackle announcer from 1967-1993.
Michael Clair has a brand new ebook popping out on April 1st. Printed by College of Nebraska Press, We Sacrifice All the things For Baseball: How the Czech Republic’s Beginner Underdogs Grew to become World Baseball Basic Heroes is now accessible for preorder.
Jim Willis, a right-handed pitcher who appeared in 27 video games for the Chicago Cubs throughout the 1953-1954 seasons, died on January 2 at age 98. A local of Doyline, Louisiana, Willis went 2-2 with a 3.39 ERA over 66-and-a-third innings. Pee Wee Reese and Del Ennis have been the one batters to take him deep.
———
The reply to the quiz is Luis Aparicio, who acquired 84.6% of the vote in his sixth yr on the poll.
———
Final August, Tarik Skubal and Hunter Brown matched up in a modern-day pitchers’ duel that culminated in a 1-0 Detroit Tigers win over the Houston Astros in 10 innings. The respective aces mixed to throw 13 frames, after which I requested every of them in regards to the evolution of pitch and innings counts — particularly if they may think about themselves going as deep into video games as as soon as was frequent. Their responses have been featured in Sunday Notes later that very same week.
In early September, referencing my conversations with Skubal and Brown, I broached that topic with Pittsburgh’s Bubba Chandler. May the Pirates rookie right-hander see himself toeing the rubber for 9 full frames?
“I don’t know,” he replied. “Each sport I’m going on the market pondering I’m going to throw 9. That was truly a working joke in Triple-A. I saved telling our pitching coach, ‘Hey, simply let me go on the market and freaking throw 9; my physique can deal with it.’ That sort of factor.
“However as we speak, there’s simply a lot knowledge on the market,” continued Chandler, who’s sans a whole sport in 87 skilled begins. “Hitters have this false confidence third time by the lineup the place it’s ‘OK I’ve seen every thing.’ Every pitch you throw will get put of their reminiscence financial institution. They bear in mind the form. They bear in mind the way it was popping out of your hand. That’s why it’s so onerous to go deep in video games now.
“That’s particularly with guys like Skubal, who you talked about,” he added. “An influence pitcher like him, his stuff is best than most hitters. They’re going to foul stuff off and run the pitch rely up. Guys throw a lot more durable now — they’re ripping pitches consistently — so the harm issue performs an enormous half, too. So yeah, I don’t suppose eight or 9 innings is absolutely doable anymore. The sport has gotten so significantly better. Hitters have developed. Pitchers have developed. Your greatest likelihood to freaking win a baseball sport is to usher in your nearer who’s received three outlier pitches. That’s a part of the sport inside the sport of pitching these days.”
———
Left on the cutting-room ground from my Arizona Fall League dialog with Bryce Cunningham — the New York Yankees prospect was among the many gamers featured in final Sunday’s column — was his point out of a favourite passion.
“I acquire sports activities playing cards,” the 23-year-old right-hander instructed me. “I’ve some older ones, too. I’ve a rookie Bo Jackson. I’ve a few Darryl Strawberry’s. I’ve a Dale Murphy and a Nolan Ryan. Guys like that who performed some time in the past.”
———
WBC managers and executives have been accessible to the media throughout the Winter Conferences, with Dave Nilsson and Glenn Williams representing Group Australia. I took the chance to ask the erstwhile big-leaguers how they’d describe the present state of baseball Down Below.
“It’s going nicely,” opined Williams, whose MLB profession comprised 13 video games for the Minnesota Twins in 2005. “We’re excited in regards to the WBC developing. We’ve received the 2032 Olympic Video games [of which Brisbane, Queensland is slated to be the host city] on the horizon and we’re making an attempt onerous to get baseball and softball included. Baseball has grown at 10% during the last yr, and there are near 40,000 enjoying members now. The ABL is heading in a path this season, so now we have loads of work occurring.”
The non-specific wording in Williams’s closing sentence was telling, and a main cause that I needed his and Nilsson’s views. The ABL is down to simply 4 groups; is that not a problem?
“I wouldn’t a lot name it a problem,” replied Williams, who’s CEO of Baseball Australia. “There have been 4 groups that operated within the [Chinese Professional Baseball League] for over 20 years. The competitors stage within the Australia Baseball League has by no means been stronger. We’d like to get it again to 6 groups, and we’re working onerous to do this.”
What in regards to the general high quality of play within the ABL?
“That’s type of a subjective query,” stated Nilsson, who serves as Group Australia’s supervisor. “Nevertheless it’s pretty much as good because it’s been; nevertheless you need to fee that. It’s not prefer it’s gone backwards. As a result of it’s extra condensed, you’re getting higher expertise.”
Following up, I requested Nilsson how the expertise compares to the assorted ranges of the minors stateside.
“It relies upon,” stated the previous catcher/first baseman, who performed for the Milwaukee Brewers from 1992-1999. “If you get towards the again finish of the season you’re going to see good, robust Double-A performances. Earlier within the season, minor league groups ship over rookie gamers — youthful gamers get to play — so that you watch some video games and it might seem like the underside finish of the skilled scale, and a few video games look extra like the highest finish. I managed within the league for 10 years, and a number of the groups I’d be blissful to take into the WBC, although they could not seem like that on paper. A number of the different groups I had, I wouldn’t need to play within the WBC.”
Greatest younger gamers within the ABL that individuals ought to find out about?
“A bunch of youthful gamers find yourself in school yearly, so that you’re probably not going to know who they’re till they turn into Travis Bazzana,” stated Nilsson. “You didn’t know Travis two years earlier than, although he grew to become the number-one decide. We now have numerous gamers in faculties over right here, and what now we have within the ABL are numerous guys who simply got here out of faculty, guys who’ve simply began their skilled journey, older gamers, and youthful gamers that skilled groups ship. The ABL is somewhat totally different in that sense. You’re not going to get a 21-year-old up-and-coming participant enjoying the ABL, as a result of he’s both going to be in school or the minor league over right here.”
——
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Eric Rataczak is slashing .333/.411/.581 with seven house runs in 146 plate appearances for the ABL’s Sydney Blue Sox. A local of St. Paul, Minnesota, the 24-year-old infielder within the Miami Marlins group had a 105 wRC+ final yr between Excessive-A Beloit and Double-A Pensacola.
Devin Saltiban is slashing .336/.387/.653 with 5 house runs in 142 plate appearances for the ABL’s Adelaide Giants. Drafted 98th general in 2023 out of Hilo (Hawaii) Excessive Faculty by the Philadelphia Phillies, the 20-year-old outfielder/second baseman batted .182 with a 72 wRC+ throughout three ranges (primarily Excessive-A) this previous season.
Hirokazu Sawamura introduced on Thursday that he’s retiring after 15 skilled seasons. The 37-year-old right-hander from Tochigi, Japan pitched stateside with the Boston Crimson Sox in 2021 and 2022, showing in 104 video games with a 3.39 ERA over 103-and-two-thirds innings. Most of his profession was spent in NPB, the place he performed for the Yomiuri Giants and Chiba Lotte Marines.
———
A random obscure former participant snapshot:
Alex Carrasquel grew to become MLB’s first Venezuelan-born participant when he took the mound for the Washington Senators on April 23, 1939. A local of Caracas who went on to spend seven seasons with the Senators, the right-hander’s debut was noteworthy for extra than simply its pioneer distinction. The primary three batters that Carrasquel confronted — all of whom he retired — have been Corridor of Famers Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, and Invoice Dickey.
His general physique of labor was strong. Together with three appearances with the Chicago White Sox in 1949 — he pitched in Mexico from 1946-1948 — Carrasquel went 50-39 with a 3.98 ERA over 258 video games comprising 861 innings. Per his SABR BioProject entry, Carrasquel was the primary native Venezuelan to win a sport, throw a shutout, report a save, hit safely, and stroke a house run. His nephew, Chico Carrasquel, grew to become his homeland’s fourth MLB participant when he debuted with the White Sox in 1950. A yr later, Chico was the primary Latin American to look within the All-Star sport.
———
Carlos Narváez is from Maracay, Venezuela, and yesterday the Boston catcher was requested for his ideas on what has, and is, transpiring in his homeland.
“It was wanted,” Narvaez instructed reporters at Fenway Park, the place the Crimson Sox have been internet hosting a winter Fan Fest. “It’s not a secret that it has been powerful years. I do know lots of people died in that state of affairs, however on the similar time, I believe the nation wanted that. After all, I’m wanting ahead to each household being protected… We’re nonetheless anticipating what, to us, might be occurring after that.”
———
LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At The Guardian, Leander Schaerlaeckens opined that US actions in Venezuela put the 2026 World Cup in disgraceful firm (not baseball-related, however noteworthy nonetheless).
The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote about how Chase Utley’s surging help displays an evolution in Corridor of Fame voting.
At Royals Overview, Bradford Lee seemed again on the profession of Virgil Vans, who received 177 video games pitching for 5 groups, primarily the Detroit Tigers, from 1941-1958. (Of word: the erstwhile hurler’s nephew, Butch Vans, was a founding member of the Allman Brothers Band, whereas Butch’s nephew, Derek Vans, is the guitarist for the Tedeschi Vans Band.)
Do the Houston Astros have “a kind” and does Tatsuya Imai match it? Matthew Creally believes each to be true, and he wrote about it at Pitcher Checklist.
MiLB.com’s Josh Jackson launched us to the 15 girls who’re GMs of minor league baseball groups.
———
RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Over his profession, Bo Bichette has slashed .330/.377/.527 with 30 house runs in 771 plate appearances with runners in scoring place. With the bases loaded, he has slashed .327/.365/.527 with two grand slams in 63 plate appearances.
Over his profession, Dante Bichette slashed .305/.341/.509 with 80 house runs in 2,004 plate appearances with runners in scoring place. With the bases loaded, he slashed .348/.347/.619 with 9 grand slams in 170 plate appearances.
Mark McGwire had 1,626 hits, together with 583 house runs. Corridor of Fame catcher/first baseman Buck Ewing had 1,625 hits, together with 71 house runs.
Jack Morris (254) and Jerry Koosman (222) have probably the most wins amongst pitchers born in Minnesota. Morris made 527 begins, threw 3,824 innings, and had a 105 ERA+. Koosman made 527 begins, threw 3,839 innings, and had a 110 ERA+ .
Félix Hernández’s 169 wins are probably the most amongst pitchers born in Venezuela. Freddy Garcia (156) and Johan Santana (139) have the next-highest totals.
Francisco Rodríguez’s 437 saves are probably the most amongst pitchers born in Venezuela. Ugueth Urbina (237) and Jorge Julio (99) have the next-highest totals.
The Cincinnati Reds signed Aroldis Chapman as a global free agent on as we speak’s date in 2010. The flame-throwing Cuban southpaw went on to report 146 of his 367 profession saves with the Reds earlier than being traded to the New York Yankees in December 2015. Chapman logged 33 saves and a personal-best 1.17 ERA with the Boston Crimson Sox this previous season.
The Detroit Tigers acquired Mickey Tettleton from the Baltimore Orioles in change for Jeff Robinson on as we speak’s date in 1991. Robinson was subsequently launched in December of that yr after going 4-9 with a 5.18 ERA in his lone Baltimore season. Tettleton performed 4 seasons in Detroit, logging a 133 wRC+ and catapulting 112 house runs.
Gamers born on as we speak’s date embrace Loren Babe, a 3rd baseman from Pisgah, Iowa whose MLB profession comprised 120 video games — 103 for the Philadelphia Athletics and 17 for the New York Yankees — throughout the 1952-1953 seasons. Nicknamed “Bee Bee,” Babe batted .223 and bashed two house runs.
Additionally born on as we speak’s date was Silver King, a pitcher/proper fielder who performed for seven groups throughout the 1886-1897 seasons. Extra completed on the mound than on the plate, he loved his greatest season in 1888 when he went 45-20 with a 1.98 ERA whereas tossing 584-and-two-thirds innings for the American Affiliation’s St. Louis Browns. A side-armer, King accomplished 64 of his 66 begins that yr.