Welcome to 2026. Time marches on, and so too does the Offseason Matrices doc. It has been fairly quiet since I up to date you with a Matrix Reloaded final Monday, a lot in order that we pushed again our return to our regular Friday schedule, realizing that Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto would no less than signal over the weekend. Assuming the primary full week of the New Yr is busier, we’ll be again at it on Fridays for the rest of the offseason.
Vital Signings
Blue Jays Signal Kazuma Okamoto for 4 Years, $60 Million
Impact on the Blue Jays
The 1st step for the Jays: determine the place Okamoto will play. He’s acquired in depth expertise at each infield corners however has additionally frolicked in left area, although not for the reason that 2024 season with Yomiuri. He’s clearly not going play a lot first base with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked up for 15 seasons, and barring a commerce, the outfield seems properly set with Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes; there’s additionally the chance George Springer spends extra time on the grass than he did final 12 months.
The issue with Okamoto enjoying third is that he may not be that good over there; our prospect staff has him down as a 40-grade first baseman, so it stands to cause that he’d be under common on the more durable place to play. Maybe Andrés Giménez’s glorious vary at quick will help paper over a few of Okamoto’s deficiencies, or maybe the Blue Jays will take the defensive hit if it means getting his bat within the lineup.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It seems such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply disillusioned.
We get it. You need to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we might prefer to level out just a few of the nice explanation why you must turn into a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We can’t bug you with this advert, or some other.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get minimize off.
3. Darkish mode and Basic mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click information exports! Export our projections and leaderboards to your private tasks.
6. Take away the pictures on the house web page! (Truthfully, this does not sound so nice to us, however some folks wished it, and we like to present our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We now have handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections out there for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a custom-made 12 months finish overview! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this 12 months, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, solely for Members.
10. Assist help FanGraphs and our total workers! Our Members present us with crucial assets to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you will contemplate a Membership at this time, for your self or as a present! And we notice this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite adverts on this article. We did not need to overdo it.
The opposite factor to watch right here is how, if in any respect, this impacts the staff’s reported pursuit of Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger (all supply info is on the Matrix). On the floor, the Jays don’t have “area” for one more starting-caliber (starting-calibre?) bat, however a staff that was simply two outs from successful the World Collection would possibly determine to not care about making Santander an costly bench participant and add anyway.
Impact on Different Groups
Within the run-up to Okamoto’s signing deadline, the Blue Jays really weren’t among the many most oft-mentioned groups. That distinction belongs to the Pirates, Angels, and Padres. Okamoto would have been extra of a luxurious for the Padres, so I don’t essentially anticipate them to signal one other hitter as a substitute, however the identical can’t be mentioned for the Pirates and Angels. These two groups have a number of the worst third base projections within the league, with the Pirates rating twenty fifth in projected WAR on the scorching nook and the Angels checking in at twenty ninth.
Thankfully for these two golf equipment, there are nonetheless some intriguing choices. Sadly for these two golf equipment, it stays to be seen in the event that they’re prepared to spend that type of money. Bregman might be out of the query, however Eugenio Suárez could possibly be in both staff’s value vary. Significantly cheaper choices embody Yoán Moncada, Willi Castro, Miguel Andujar, Luis Rengifo, and Ramón Urías.
Impact on Related Gamers
Okamoto’s signing might push the infield market alongside no less than slightly bit — particularly if the Jays are pivoting away from Bichette and Bregman, which we don’t know for certain — and Suárez could possibly be the hitter to most immediately profit. His median contract prediction (on the Complete Spending Projection tab) is three years at $63 million, and the longer he’s on the market, the likelier he’s to finish up taking two years, and even only one. However a not-super-needy staff signing Okamoto might energize Suárez’s market; if Okamoto had signed with the Pirates or Angels, the staff that misplaced out may need been extra snug ready for the Suárez market to return to them. Now, somebody would possibly get determined.
Astros Signal Tatsuya Imai for Three Years, $54 Million
Impact on the Astros
Imai is the highest-profile starter to be added by an Astros membership that additionally signed Ryan Weiss from the KBO and traded for Mike Burrows within the three-teamer with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. These strikes give the staff a rotation that’s quick on top-end expertise behind Hunter Brown however lengthy on choices.
Regardless of Imai’s contract construction (it consists of incentives for 2026 and escalators for the 2027 and 2028 choices at simply 80, 90, and 100 innings pitched), he figures to be the one lock to hitch Brown within the rotation, assuming well being; the Astros aren’t paying $18 million a 12 months for somebody they’re going to stay within the bullpen in April. Past Brown and Imai, a smorgasbord of arms are competing for the ultimate three spots, together with [deep breath before listing a bunch of names]: Weiss, Burrows, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Nate Pearson, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon, and J.P. France. McCullers and Javier determine to have a leg up contemplating their veteran standing and costly contracts.
Impact on Different Groups
So far as we all know publicly, the Cubs might properly have been the runners-up to signal Imai. They’ve had a rotation opening all offseason, and whereas they hypothetically might simply roll with Colin Rea or Javier Assad as their fifth starter, they’ve been capturing greater for the emptiness subsequent to Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, and Shota Imanaga, with Justin Steele, who had elbow surgical procedure in April, rejoining the membership sooner or later this season.
So what’s subsequent for them? Properly, I’ll consider that they’re being really aggressive of their pursuit of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez — the highest two remaining free agent starters, each of whom will eclipse $100 million and/or signal for a mean annual worth greater than the Cubs have ever dedicated — after I see it. Enter Zac Gallen.
The Cubs have been linked to Gallen all offseason, most notably when Bob Nightengale reported that they have been finalizing a cope with the previous Diamondbacks righty earlier than amending his publish to say that the Cubs have been merely “hopeful.” Gallen has been on the downswing the final two seasons. When he completed third in Cy Younger balloting in 2023, it wouldn’t have been in any respect outlandish to forecast that he’d signal for $200 million or extra as soon as he hit free company, however after posting a 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, and 4.28 xERA (all worse than common) in his stroll 12 months, the Scott Boras shopper might must accept a contract construction much like Imai’s.
Impact on Related Gamers
And that’s the place the Imai Impact would possibly assist Gallen. Imai and Michael King each signed three-year contracts permitting them to choose out after every season, and Gallen could possibly be the third pitcher to signal such a deal. Like Gallen, Imai is a Boras shopper, and Boras might jockey for Gallen to signal a cope with an identical construction with the Cubs or one other staff.
I’d anticipate Gallen signing for greater than Imai (if he will get a three-year deal) contemplating his observe report and sturdiness — he’s thrown 180 innings in three of the final 4 seasons, and threw 148 within the fourth, a 12 months wherein he nonetheless made 28 begins — however lower than King. Complicating issues for Gallen is that he’s connected to a qualifying provide, which can make groups hesitant to present him the possibility to choose out after one 12 months. Maybe one thing in between King and Imai (three years and $63 million?) with an choose out after simply the second 12 months might get the job carried out.
Giants Signal Tyler Mahle for One Yr, $10 Million
Impact on the Giants
The Giants’ rotation is ostensibly full, however not in an “I actually don’t see how they might add one other beginning pitcher” means. It’s extra an “if everybody enters spring coaching wholesome, their rotation seems set” state of affairs, with Mahle becoming a member of Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Adrian Houser, and Landen Roupp within the beginning 5.
However past Webb, who’s as regular and sturdy as they arrive, that fivesome is rife with pitfalls. Mahle himself made simply 16 begins final 12 months and solely eight extra ones within the two prior seasons; he’s solely topped 130 innings in a season as soon as, throughout an excellent 2021 with the Reds. Ray pale down the stretch after being named an All-Star in his first full season since 2022. Houser was nice within the run prevention division final 12 months, however wasn’t so nice within the bat-missing division. And Roupp missed a bit of 2025 resulting from accidents and has by no means thrown greater than 107.2 innings in a professional season.
Perhaps the celebrities will align for good output from the rotation, and the depth is respectable with Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Carson Seymour, and Hayden Birdsong. However a bunch of maybes and decents shouldn’t dissuade a staff trying to take a leap below first-year supervisor Tony Vitello from including one other rock strong starter, whether or not it’s Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, or Zac Gallen, or a non-QO-encumbered arm like Chris Bassitt.
Impact on Different Groups
The aid market has nearly been picked clear, however the identical can’t be mentioned for beginning pitchers, regardless of which aisle you’re purchasing in. Groups nonetheless in want of a starter or two have loads of choices lingering on the open market, and arms like Edward Cabrera and Kris Bubic have been talked about as commerce potentialities, too.
Impact on Related Gamers
Mahle’s signing takes an affordable-to-everyone pitcher off the board, however with the entire beginning pitching market transferring slowly, there are nonetheless fascinating arms who ought to be signable for round Mahle’s $10 million. Griffin Canning, Max Scherzer, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano will possible all signal for only one 12 months within the low eight figures at most.
Speedy-Hearth One-Yr Deal (Solely One This Time!)
Angels Signal Kirby Yates for $5 Million
Yates missed the Dodgers’ total postseason run with a strained hamstring, prematurely ending his solely season with the membership. His 2025 was a significant step again from his glorious 2024, anyway, although on the plus facet, his stroll charge was the bottom it’s been since his career-best 2019 with the Padres. This might be Yates’ second go-round in Anaheim after a one-game cameo in 2017, and he’ll compete with Robert Stephenson, Drew Pomeranz, Brock Burke, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Jordan Romano for saves in a bullpen that lacks a chosen nearer.
Trades
Marlins Purchase Esteury Ruiz from Marlins for Adriano Marrero
Impact on the Marlins
After buying and selling Dane Myers to the Reds on Sunday, the Marlins had only one righty outfielder on the roster in superutilityman Javier Sanoja. Ruiz’s pace provides Miami a distinct sort of bench participant in comparison with Sanoja’s robust glovework; he stole 67 bases in 2023 to guide the majors. The massive adverse to Ruiz’s sport is… properly, all the things else in his sport. He hasn’t proven any of the opposite 4 instruments on the massive league degree, so his usefulness as a backup outfielder stays to be seen if he nonetheless grades out as below-average on protection.
Impact on the Dodgers
The Dodgers had no actual want for Ruiz, what with Alex Name set to reprise his function because the staff’s fourth outfielder and the highly effective Ryan Ward and defensive whiz Michael Siani additionally on the 40-man. Marrero simply turned 18 in September and carried out properly in his first style of professional ball within the DSL.