Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/19/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, I’m on the highway seeing household for the vacations whereas nonetheless hammering away at writing and Board upkeep, however nonetheless needed to squeeze in a single final chat earlier than the positioning is darkish beginning in the midst of subsequent week by New 12 months’s Day. So let’s boogie.

fried rice: why is ZIPS so bullish on colt emerson’s 3B protection?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good query, I believe it’s in all probability simply mapping to 3B the metrics Dan’s utilizing from SS/2B primarily based on historic knowledge when a participant makes an identical transfer. But it surely’s Danny’s mannequin, I don’t know for sure.

AD: Jordy Vargas got here again after a extremely lengthy damage layoff. Appears to be like like he struck a ton of dudes out, however the walks had been loopy. Is that this regular damage rust, or had one thing noticeably modified?

Eric A Longenhagen: I assumed his supply regarded *higher* in a way, specifically that the traits I’m in search of in a supply (on this case I assumed Vargas was getting down he mound higher than earlier than, I haven’t regarded on the extension knowledge to examine tho) had been extra current than earlier than, his arm slot was form of everywhere late in 2023 and was extra persistently 3/4s in 2025…

Eric A Longenhagen: This plus rust coming off the TJ means I’m not tremendous involved (the breaking ball nonetheless carried out like a 70 final yr) however clearly the Rockies observe report with arms hasn’t been nice.

Dan S.: How do you suppose Coby Mayo is perceived across the league at this level? Former high 20 prospect, received uncovered and struggled as he adjusted to MLB pitching and moved off 3B, however completed 2025 sturdy. Is there nonetheless sufficient upside for him to anchor a package deal for a superb starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: It might depend upon match, I don’t suppose he’s on the high of the pecking order of Orioles I’m asking for if I’m buying and selling a no. 3 or higher, although.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mayo feels just like the second piece in a deal like that

Shawn miller: any updates on yohanfer Santana?

Eric A Longenhagen: Are you able to be extra particular? It’s the offseason and he was talked about in final week’s chat (together with a hyperlink to video of one among his outings) so, not likely.

Matt: I might be curious to listen to your ideas on Drew Burress, who looks as if a novel prospect to say the least. Quick and RHH but in addition possibly the perfect hitter within the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s uncommon for outfielders that small to truly hit it huge.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe falling for Madrigal, and so on. has pushed me extra in the direction of preferring overt physicality.

Dan S.: Will Enrique Bradfield Jr. hit sufficient to be a (good) common? Or is he extra of a glove-fist bench/platoon choice?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45, plus defender, 70 runner. Helpful 9 gap hitter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have a look at the CF inhabitants from any extended time frame. Those who produce like 50s or higher hit for energy, until you’re Kiermaier.

tbone26: which lists are we getting subsequent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reds, White Sox, Mariners, in all probability one among Cleveland and Philly in there too. CIN and CHW subsequent week earlier than we’re darkish, SEA, CLE, PHI within the New 12 months

Jonathan: What’s Sung-mun Tune’s protection like? Is there any defensive versatility contemplating Machado remains to be at 3B for the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: plus glove at 2b/3b

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice athlete, I think about he’ll rove past these two spots, however he’s excellent at each. Beautiful footwork and actions.

Dan S.: Trey Gibson stumbled a bit with the brand new ball in AAA however pitch fashions have me salivating over his arsenal. What’s the upside/flooring there?

Eric A Longenhagen: A great staff’s no. 4, has the stuff to take the ball in a playoff sequence

JD: Ideas on Sung Mun Tune signing with the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: For the quantity they signed him for, it’s good. I’m skeptical he’ll hit very a lot however at this AAV it’d be okay if he’s a glove-first utility man.

Res: Did Caleb Bonemer’s displaying in A ball enhance your confidence in his hit instrument in any respect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, James is stuffing him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Actual barrel really feel, glorious vertical plate protection, we’re in.

Jeremy: How do you consider big-bat guys like Chris Hacopian understanding they don’t have conventional pace / athleticism to spice up the remainder of their package deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Does he have at the least one 70 grade one thing on offense? If he does then you may be happy to disregard a few of the different stuff.

Jeremy: In hitting, how a lot do groups worth current skills versus issues they suppose are fixable, e.g., does a man with good chase however unhealthy pull air % rank above a man who already pulls with authority however has poor self-discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe it relies on how well-integrated participant dev and scouting are for that individual staff. Are you able to see the adjustments that should be made? Have your scouts been armed with the information that, as an illustration, decrease physique power issues rather a lot for pitchers and possibly watch your orgs with that in thoughts looking for guys who don’t have that but?

Eric A Longenhagen: Typically I believe groups, even particular person executives, have preferences which may cause them to worth Emmanuel Valdez (an higher stage performer) in a commerce however not Estuar Suero (all projection).

Jeremy: How does 2026’s draft class stack as much as latest drafts? Anybody stand out to you apart from Cholowsky? Are there classes that appears significantly sturdy or weak this yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Roch in tier 1 alone proper now, then Grady Emerson and Justin Lebron. I guess a school pitcher or two joins them by July. Good school hitter draft into the center of spherical 1.

Jeremy: What’s your learn on Genei Sato? Are we more likely to see extra overseas school college students come stateside earlier than beginning professional careers?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s okay. Pretty mature construct, supply encompasses a good little bit of effort. Throws arduous, secondary stuff not nice…35+ kind

Eric A Longenhagen: I do suppose we’re gonna get increasingly more guys doing this, however because the world appears to lastly be studying with Rintaro Sasaki, it doesn’t imply they’re good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Enjoyable, good story, RIntaro looks as if a candy child, however he was fairly clearly not that good instantly, hype created out of skinny air by the web principally

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, directing visitors on the Tune signing and Pirates commerce

Bowlan Ball: Do you suppose the Phillies will contemplate Bowlan within the rotation? Historical past of beginning in MiLB, huge physique, multi-inning function final yr… additionally simply basic ideas on the commerce?

Eric A Longenhagen: I questioned this because the information broke, however he’s out of choices so he’d must be plugged proper into their huge league rotation. Appears unlikely.

Res: Was Josh Baez’s energy in 2025 sufficient to maneuver him for a 40+ to a forty five? His Ok price improved too.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical he’s really going to hit, not likely on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I do know, I’m imply.

Tacoby Bellsbury: I solely received Gold in my FanGraphs yr in overview this yr. What are you seeing in my efficiency that’s inflicting me to underachieve?

Eric A Longenhagen: A flour tortilla

Mike Ok: What occurred to Luciano? Something to be taught?

Eric A Longenhagen: A few of that’s simply on me and the prospect-ranking industrial complicated for being overzealous once we had too little efficiency knowledge to be as assured as we had been in stuffing him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Largely his swing is just too lengthy to truly succeed.

Visitor: Ideas on Sung-Mun Solar?  The place does he rank relative to the NPB gamers Murakami and Okamoto?   And is he actually gonna play 2nd for the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can actually decide it, I’m skeptical in regards to the bat due to the best way his hips bail towards 1B on so a lot of his swings. Assume he’s a platoon 2B and utility man. We 45’d him, James was slightly extra bullish on his bat than I used to be and we used his grade. I’d have 40-‘d him, nonetheless an enormous leaguer.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Deeper lower for you – who has an even bigger affect on the 2026 Dodger membership, Ryan Ward (blocked eternally) or River Ryan (harm eternally)?

Eric A Longenhagen: River

Bowlan Strike: How a lot huge league affect do you suppose Alex MacFarlane can have this yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: might pitch himself into an integral seventh or eighth inning function the best way Kerkering did as a rookie.

TooDamnTall: Thanks for all of your nice work all year long

Eric A Longenhagen: Gracias, gracias. Love our little web site and nerd pirate crew.

Exhausted Pirates Fan: Say one thing good in regards to the Pirates. It doesn’t even must be true. Simply give me one thing…. i’m so drained

Eric A Longenhagen: Their offense simply received higher, I believe.

Reginald: How would you type by this mess of a depth chart in HOU? Guys like Melton, Matthews, Dezenzo must play proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol you guys had been on this at the moment, these are nonetheless from proper earlier than the chat began and this Pirates commerce information broke.

NFP: Something to Jaiden Lo Re for Baltimore? I don’t see any reporting on him after 2024 however the O’s went over slot on him – was that simply because their later juco picks fell by?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like he shortstop protection, was on him extra the summer season earlier than his draft yr, bat pace regarded worse to me his senior yr.

Pinstripe Perry: What is going on with the Yankees INTL novice facet? Form of robust to consider they wouldn’t honor the Asigen settlement no matter scouting regime change.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve no honored many agreements over the past a number of years. They’ve been infamous for over-committing their pool and triaging gamers over the course of the 24 months main as much as really signing those they suppose are greatest.

TooDamnTall: Who was your largest love at first sight prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yadier Alvarez, Elly, Alfredo Duno, Hunter Greene, Rainiel Rodriguez, Lindor, Yordano Ventura, Dylan Bundy… I might go on eternally child.

TooDamnTall: Is there a pattern in the direction of excessive schoolers throwing with excessive velocity due working at a pitching lab at youthful ages?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I’m conscious of, however I’m barely monitoring youth baseball past making disapproving faces on the dynamics creating a terrific socioeconomic divide.

Alex: Are you stunned the Rockies haven’t been extra aggressive with participant motion, and in what vital methods do you count on DePodesta to reshape the staff and entrance workplace this yr and sooner or later?  Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a superb query. I believe if DePo had been working in baseball and had extra preconceived notions about gamers all through the professional universe then possibly he’d be extra comfy making a lot of transactions instantly. I really suppose it’s okay to prioritize modernizing the org after which to use extra competent dev methods to a whole system’s value of gamers who haven’t obtained these but. To me it’s logical that the gamers who can most enhance are those already in your org, which has struggled to develop.

JP: What do you consider Chris Suero after his AFL efficiency?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a enjoyable function participant, twenty sixth man kind, who you cover on protection to get his bat into the lineup a pair instances per week.

Greg: So I’ve been following prospects / draft for nearly 20 years and I ponder how time and maybe maturity have influenced your evaluations and perspective on this a part of baseball. and the way you’ve stayed .

Eric A Longenhagen: Self-flagellation for my errors, reflection, and what I believe is preternatural sample recognition have helped me be taught and gas my very own self enchancment. The gamers are new yearly, in order that retains it contemporary. I’m nonetheless attempting to wrangle sure elements of my personhood and channel them into completely different types of productiveness, much less dev on the baseball facet and extra as a media member, because it appears like I’m locked in on that and never leaving for a staff any time quickly.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: So I’ve been studying your shit because you had been nonetheless a Klaw protege and also you’re churning out a lot materials yr after yr. I’m questioning how you retain up your stamina/curiosity in your work?

Eric A Longenhagen: Candidly, I’ve finished some injury to myself with all of the writing and late nights. However bro, I watch sports activities for a dwelling. It’s superior, I’m at peace incomes it with a sleepless night time a few times a month.

Nate: Going into final season, you had been highest on Gabriel Rodriguez for the guards AZL staff. And even regardless of solely ho-hum outcomes, your mid season updates nonetheless had him above Dauri and Caceres. I’m curious what you’re seeing with these scout eyes that field rating scouting can’t account for

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabe was harm, Caceres is a spreadsheet darling (he’s good tho)

Scott: Any updates out there on Toronto’s Jake Bloss post-surgery? He gave the impression to be shifting alongside by the Houston system earlier than the commerce, after which his arm went “growth”…

Eric A Longenhagen: I nonetheless liked him

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless suppose he’s a 50

Jonathan: I vaguely recall the Reds’ checklist is arising pretty quickly.  On that be aware, how do you visually consider somebody like what Carlos Sanchez was in 2023 in AZ?  I do know you and others have talked about that there was a good quantity of buzz (till he hit full-season ball and cratered).  Was it simply that the backfields’ velo wasn’t adequate to show a flaw?  How would a scout keep away from making that untimely evaluation once more, or is it only a query of not having sufficient info till the participant faces higher high quality pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: ” Was it simply that the backfields’ velo wasn’t adequate to show a flaw?” Sure, I believe that is it.

David: Is Tommy White’s protection at third base unplayable within the main leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t like him at 3B (nor very a lot as a prospect, total) however don’t suppose he’s “unplayable”, and have a 6 on him as a 1B defender.

Rangers fan: Would you place Langford in Centerfield and simply cope with both Carter or Nimmos beneath common arm in proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give Langford a shot to develop there and have Nimmo because the backup choice if he can’t

Key Jangler: The farm system rankings web page has St. Louis and Pittsburgh neck and neck for probably the most precious. That rating is clearly a confluence of valuation evaluation (how a lot a prospect tier is value together with what the prospect is rated). In case you had been being extra subjective, which system is your favourite?

Eric A Longenhagen: In all probability Detroit’s

Rangers fan: Is Davilillo getting high 100 consideration or not sufficient swing and miss?

Eric A Longenhagen: Within the combine

Delauter: Assume he can/will pretend it in middle ?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a bridge too far for me, like asking Joel Embiid to play 82 video games

Intelligent Pseudonym: I didn’t suppose a lot of Kevin McGonigle at first as a result of his energy didn’t appear that nice. I used to be fallacious. Whereas he’ll in all probability by no means hit 25-30 homers it appears as if he’ll have sufficient juice to be a excessive WAR participant and make a number of journeys to the All Star sport. That stated, what do you worth extra: a 60+ kind hitter who wants to enhance his energy, or a 60+ kind energy prospect who wants to enhance his hitting abilities?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe the quantity and high quality of the contact will permit his energy manufacturing to play higher than his uncooked batting apply pop

Brian: Ideas on the reported Rays/Pirates/Astros deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m really going to jot down this one up in full for the positioning once we’re by right here, which will probably be shortly.

Alex: Primarily based on the latest reporting across the Brandon Lowe commerce, what are your ideas on Anderson Brito and Jacob Melton?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brito I’ve in as a superb reliever, lacks the scale of a typical starter however has monster breaking stuff. David Robertson comp. Melton I must re-engage with, that is much less exact, however I’ve had him on the 45/50 grade line for some time now.

asdf: What’s with the shortage of rumors about Murakami/Okamoto (and the Tune information got here out of nowhere)? Do worldwide indicators simply have fewer leaks, or are their markets worse than anticipated.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s usually only one or two brokers who’ve the massive NPB guys and our newsbreakers within the States have fewer traces of communication into the camps of gamers who don’t communicate their language.

Jordan: Additionally, humorous that as a company lawyer it took me about 10 seconds to appreciate that by “Board upkeep”, you meant engaged on updating THE BOARD and weren’t speaking about drawing board resolutions and assembly minutes

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, yeah, the phantom limbs of our careers.

Key Jangler: How a lot will the “flattening” of know-how across the minors that MLB introduced this week assist analysis? Additionally, when will they begin utilizing the identical ball in every single place?

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be pissed Eno scooped me, I used to be reporting that in FanGraphs hibachi. I believe there are going to be lawsuits from the distributors who’ve contracts with these groups. It’s one factor to violate antitrust whenever you’re doing it inside your personal company like was finished with a few of the novice Trackman stuff, and one other when third events are concerned.

Utility costs: The SITE goes darkish? The whole FanGraphs Website?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, we publish “better of” stuff between christmas and new years

Eric A Longenhagen: That is completely different than “Darkish Mode” a factor you may have for those who’re a member.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay y’all, I’ve gotta go begin writing up this huge commerce. Nice questions but once more this week. NO CHAT NEXT FRIDAY. I’ll see you January 2, 2026, once I’ll be filled with pork and sauerkraut.

Eric A Longenhagen: Merry Christmas to you and yours, comfortable holidays, be affected person with your self and others throughout your travels.