Phenomenal Cosmic Energy, Itty Bitty Contact Charge: White Sox Signal Murakami

A brand new day dawned in Main League Baseball on Sunday, as the highest worldwide participant on this free agent class has signed with — that’s proper — somebody apart from the Dodgers!

The White Sox, sure, consider it or not, the White Sox, have landed Munetaka Murakami. Per Jeff Passan, the 25-year-old nook infielder, late of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows of NPB, will make $34 million over the following two seasons. We had him ranked twelfth on our Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist, with an estimated contract AAV of $22 million. Ben Clemens predicted he’d get seven years, our readers six.

It’s one of many greatest discrepancies you’re more likely to see, and for good cause. Murakami is, for my part, the no. 1 most fascinating participant on this class, and whereas I’m shocked his contract dropped this far beneath expectations, I’m under no circumstances stunned by the extent to which he’s divided standard opinion.

Murakami is, undeniably, an thrilling participant. In 2022, as a 22-year-old, he hit .318/.458/.710 with 56 residence runs in 141 video games. I believe it’s applicable to take a seat for a second and reckon with a .700 slugging proportion. We see guys slug .500 on a regular basis, and .600 isn’t that a lot larger than .500, and by extension, .700 isn’t that a lot larger than .600, so is it actually that large a deal?

Sure, it’s a giant deal. Our NPB leaderboards solely return to 2019, however Murakami in 2022 was the one hitter to slug .700 in Japan’s high league in that point. There have solely been 10 cases of a hitter slugging .700 in MLB in a 162-game season: Barry Bonds 4 instances, Mark McGwire twice, Larry Walker twice, and Sammy Sosa and Aaron Decide as soon as every.

All of these required extenuating circumstances. Walker had pre-humidor Coors Area; Decide is the largest, strongest place participant in baseball historical past; the opposite three made Marco Pantani’s pharmaceutical weight loss plan seem like a backyard salad and faucet water.

Murakami hasn’t been fairly pretty much as good since, however the truth that he slugged .700 even as soon as, within the second-best league on this planet, is a giant deal. In 2025, Murakami was restricted to 56 video games by a litany of accidents and nonetheless managed to go yard 22 instances and slug .663.

Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan’s October roundup of free brokers from Asia put a 70 or 80 on Murakami’s energy grade. That doesn’t come alongside within the free agent market fairly often, below any circumstances. And Murakami is actually the youngest participant on this free agent class; he’s greater than 5 years youthful than Pete Alonso, as an example. And whereas the White Sox are reportedly penciling Murakami in at first base, he’s at the very least theoretically able to taking part in third.

If you’d like an instance of a participant Murakami’s age, along with his energy and the power to supply even minimal defensive worth, on the free agent market previously decade… I’m developing empty after Bryce Harper. And whereas I don’t suppose this issues in any respect to entrance places of work — or at the very least, it shouldn’t — bringing in a star of Murakami’s stature from NPB is on many ranges extra enjoyable than signing an equal participant who was already within the American main leagues. Murakami shall be completely new to most White Sox followers, which suggests it’s simpler for followers to let their imaginations run wild than it will be with, say, Ryan O’Hearn. That may not be the healthiest mindset in the long run, nevertheless it’s December; there’s no hurt in a little bit optimism.

Insofar as followers are already conscious of Murakami’s oeuvre, they’ll most likely have come away with overwhelmingly optimistic impressions. I’ll cop to not being an NPB knowledgeable right here; I solely have vivid reminiscences of watching one Murakami at-bat stay. Right here’s how that at-bat ended:

Murakami hit the two-run walk-off double that ended Japan’s thrilling semifinal victory over Mexico at the latest World Baseball Traditional. And it wasn’t some blooper off a man who acquired known as up from beer league as a result of he had a British grandfather, both. Murakami tagged Giovanny Gallegos — an excellent high-leverage reliever on the time — for a 111-mph missile that hit the wall on the fly.

You enthusiastic about this man, but? Good. Now get a towel, as a result of I’m about to pour an entire bucket of chilly water on that pleasure.

No one value listening to thinks Murakami goes to indicate up in Chicago in March and hit 50 homers or slug .700 straight away. The standard of play in Japan is just a bit beneath what it’s right here, so that you’d count on Murakami to take a while to regulate. ZiPS has him pegged to hit .237/.363/.454, with 26 residence runs in 515 plate appearances. In fancy math, that involves a 126 wRC+ and three.4 WAR.

That appears like an inexpensive low cost on Murakami’s headline stats from Japan. It might even be a steal at $22 million a yr, not to mention $17 million.

I’m taking the below on these numbers. Slamming the below. If I had been a betting man, I’d be texting Emmanuel Clase’s buddies till my telephone melted.

The Western Hemisphere is a internet exporter of slugging nook guys. For each Murakami who comes this fashion, we ship half a dozen Quadruple A primary basemen to NPB. Which means there’s a prepared provide of gamers whom followers keep in mind fairly nicely, to supply a comparability to Murakami:

Within the U.S., these guys largely topped out at entertainingly common. The 2 hitters on this checklist who had the very best MLB careers had been Voit and Reyes. They’ve mixed for extra 30-homer seasons (two) and residential run titles (one) than 2-plus WAR seasons (zero). Voit struck out 31.5% of the time in his final full season within the majors; Reyes struck out 33.2% of the time in his.

Each of them have fared higher in NPB, however the swing-and-miss continues to be there; Reyes had the bottom in-zone contact charge of any certified hitter within the league in 2025.

By way of charge stats and manufacturing, Murakami makes these guys seem like scrubs. He has the very best stroll charge, the very best OPS+, and the very best slugging proportion by greater than 100 factors. However he additionally had an in-zone contact charge of simply 73.4%.

In-zone contact charge isn’t the be-all and end-all of a participant’s hit device, nevertheless it’s a helpful metric for figuring out how typically a batter can put the bat on his pitch. It takes strike zone judgment out of the equation; getting fooled and chasing an 0-2 slider within the filth doesn’t matter right here. Once you see the pitch you’re in search of, are you able to hit it?

A variety of the very best hitters in baseball swing and miss at their pitch fairly a bit. The scary zone for Z-Contact% begins round 80%. Right here’s a partial checklist of hitters who failed to fulfill that mark in 2025: Decide, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuña Jr., Kyle Stowers, Randy Arozarena, Nick Kurtz, Giancarlo Stanton, and Rafael Devers.

You may stay within the higher 70s and hit 40 residence runs a yr and signal nine-figure contracts. Loads of guys do. The fellows I simply listed, typically, take a ton of walks and now have bonkers uncooked energy. When you miss the middle-middle fastball one out of 5 instances however hit it 115 mph the opposite 4, issues are likely to even out in the long term.

And Murakami has that type of plate self-discipline and uncooked energy. The distinction is there’s an enormous distinction between a high-70s Z-Contact% and a low-70s Z-Contact%. Someplace in there’s a cliff, beneath which it’s simply not doable to be a productive main league hitter over the long term.

The most effective school pitchers of the previous 20 years was a man named Preston Morrison. Over 4 years at TCU, he posted a 1.85 ERA as a high-workload starter. He had terrific command, modified speeds nicely, had good deception, pitched nicely in large video games — he went to the School World Collection twice — and made at the very least one All-American workforce in every of his 4 years on campus. In nearly 500 collegiate innings, he allowed solely 11 residence runs and 73 walks.

Morrison lasted till the eighth spherical of the 2015 draft, and signed for simply $30,000. Guys he’d run rings round in school had been getting 100 instances as a lot cash. Appropriately so, it turned out. He carved up Class A ball in his first season and alter within the execs, and acquired his first style of Double-A in 2017, the place he went 1-10 with a 5.51 ERA. He was out of the game fully inside 18 months of his Double-A debut.

Morrison’s fastball topped out at round 85 mph. Velocity isn’t every part, and even an important factor, for a pitcher. It’s not sufficient to have velo, and Morrison was among the many greatest in his class at every part besides throwing arduous.

However there’s a naked minimal requirement for velocity. You may succeed should you throw 90, if every part else is ideal. However you’ll be able to’t throw 85 — at the very least not overhand, or and not using a knuckleball — and get main league hitters out.

In-zone contact charge is to hitters what velocity is to pitchers. And Murakami’s contact charges are the equal of an 85-mph fastball. Neglect Voit and Franmil; keep in mind Domingo Santana? He was a sizzling prospect for some time as a result of he may play heart subject and hit for giant energy; positive, he’d strike out quite a bit, however so what?

Properly, Santana acquired to the majors, and it was extra nook outfield than heart subject, and hanging out quite a bit changed into extra of a “can’t hit the broad facet of a barn” scenario. He had one 30-homer season in Milwaukee, and American organizations bored with letting him strike out a 3rd of the time. Even this man, whose energy stroke has apparently disappeared because the final time he performed within the U.S., made extra contact than Murakami did.

Previously 5 years, there have been simply 10 seasons wherein a hitter has posted a Z-Contact% of 75% or much less and a wRC+ of 115 or extra in the identical season of at the very least 250 plate appearances. (I determine 115 is about the usual of competence for a $17 million-a-year first baseman.) This involves about 0.6% of whole particular person hitter seasons.

What does this seem like, in apply? Ideally, Devers in 2025. Extra possible, an excellent Joey Gallo or Mike Zunino season. And that’s assuming Murakami’s Z-Contact% stays fixed, which is a giant assumption.

Right here’s Eric on Murakami, from his Prime 50 Free Brokers blurb: “[T]listed here are scary underlying indicators surrounding Murakami’s contact capacity which are one thing of a purple flag when projecting his MLB future. His contact charge tanks in opposition to fastballs 93 mph and above (simply 63% since 2022) and, extra lately, Murakami’s contact charges versus secondary pitches have additionally plummeted to close 50%.”

If Murakami struggles with excessive velocity and secondary pitches to that extent, I don’t really feel assured about his capacity to keep up, a lot much less enhance, his already-unsurvivable contact numbers. At this level, we’re transferring out of the Good Joey Gallo Season Zone and into Unhealthy Christopher Morel Season Territory.

As a lot as I discover it extremely possible that Murakami will flop, nothing is definite. A hitter with this degree of expertise isn’t a couple of swing change away from placing all of it collectively, and it bears repeating that Murakami was harm for a lot of final season. If he eats his Wheaties and the White Sox have the appropriate concepts for the place to place his palms, Murakami may develop into a monster.

I’m rooting for this to occur. Having a brand new 40-homer slugger on any workforce, below nearly any circumstances, could be cool. And these are compelling circumstances: An enormous-market workforce that’s been a punchline for the previous a number of years has opened up the checkbook and signed a serious free agent. It’d be extraordinarily cool if the White Sox had been capable of get one over on the league with Murakami.

However the truth that Murakami is signing with a 100-loss workforce, for a couple of quarter of what he was imagined to get, tells me the league isn’t holding its collective breath both.

Take into consideration what number of groups would kill to throw $20 million a yr at even a 50% probability of Murakami translating his expertise to the U.S. The Phillies and Orioles simply spent far more on Schwarber and Alonso, respectively. The Phillies may nonetheless use an improve at third base, and are determined to indicate Japanese free brokers that Philadelphia is an efficient place to play. The Mets immediately have a large void of their lineup after letting Alonso stroll and buying and selling Brandon Nimmo.

The Pirates and Reds had been in on Schwarber; absolutely there’d be taken with a hitter from the following shelf down. The stereotype of each Japanese participant going to the Dodgers comes from someplace. What concerning the Diamondbacks and Giants, two groups in severe want of extra energy of their pursuit to interrupt by way of as a real risk to the Dodgers? The Mariners simply spent far more cash on Josh Naylor, fairly than get into the Murakami enterprise.

I may go on. None of these groups had been prepared to shell out $80 million over 4 years, even? The market was actually so comfortable that the White Sox had been capable of get Murakami for, like, Rhys Hoskins cash?

Look, 29 groups have whiffed on a man on the identical time earlier than. And I’m not going to make enjoyable of the White Sox for signing a giant free agent after they’ve had three straight 100-loss seasons and are coming off an $85 million payroll. Greater than that, whereas I wouldn’t contact Murakami at what Ben and our readers thought he’d get, $34 million over two years isn’t going to place any franchise out of enterprise — even the White Sox — if it goes unhealthy.

Keep in mind when the Sox provided Manny Machado $175 million over seven years in 2019, and appeared foolish when he finally signed for $300 million? It’s just like the market on Murakami truly slid right down to the purpose the place a lowball provide was ok. (OK, I’m going to make enjoyable of the White Sox a little bit.)

However, Murakami is a massively, massively dangerous participant. The purple flags on a hitter’s most essential talent aren’t even purple flags; they’re like atomic priesthood markings. (No extremely esteemed contact charge is commemorated right here.) A workforce in Chicago’s place can afford to take large swings, however Murakami is a strolling metaphor for what occurs whenever you miss.