Final month, the Braves retained Raisel Iglesias following a rollercoaster season by which he quickly misplaced his nearer job earlier than reclaiming it and dominating down the stretch. Thoughts you, a stretch throughout which the staff was taking part in out the string on its solution to an 86-loss season and a fourth-place end within the NL East. Now Atlanta has added one other late-game reliever in Robert Suarez, who after opting out of his cope with the Padres has agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract with the Braves.
Suarez, who will flip 35 on March 1, spent the previous 4 seasons with the Padres after pitching in Japan from 2016–21, a span interrupted by Tommy John surgical procedure in ’17. After a powerful stateside debut in 2022, he rejected a $5 million participant possibility and shortly re-signed with San Diego on a five-year, $46 million contract. That deal paid him $10 million yearly from 2023–25 and included efficiency bonuses in addition to a pair of $8 million participant choices, which he declined after this 12 months’s World Sequence, permitting him to hit the open market. Reportedly, his new deal pays him $13 million in 2026, with salaries of $16 million in each ’27 and ’28; not one of the cash is deferred. With that, the Braves at the moment have the relievers with the fifth- and sixth-highest common annual values within the majors, with solely Edwin Díaz ($23 million AAV), Josh Hader ($19 million AAV), Tanner Scott ($18 million AAV), and Devin Williams ($17 million AAV) forward of Iglesias ($16 million, on a one-year deal) and Suarez ($15 million AAV).
Suarez made the NL All-Star staff in each 2024 and ’25 whereas closing for the Padres, placing up a pair of superficially related seasons: a 2.77 ERA in 65 innings, with 36 saves (third within the league) in 42 alternatives within the former, and a 2.97 ERA in 69 2/3 innings, with an NL-high 40 saves in 45 alternatives within the latter. Beneath the floor, his FIP dropped from 3.49 to 2.88, pushed by a spike in strikeout price from 22.9% to 27.9%, and fewer dramatic drops in his already-low stroll price (from 6.2% to five.9%) and residential run price (from 0.97 per 9 to 0.78). On account of that improved FIP, his WAR greater than doubled, from 0.9 to 1.9.
Suarez missed extra bats whereas shaking up a reasonably easy plan. He’s obtained excellent command of two high-spin, high-velocity fastballs, a four-seamer that averaged 98.6 mph in 2025 and a sinker that averaged 98.4 mph; he offsets these with a changeup that itself hums alongside at a mean of 90.5 mph. In 2025, he decreased the utilization of his four-seamer to 60.4%, down from 72.4%; he compensated by throwing his changeup about twice as usually (from 12.6% to 23.9%) whereas holding his sinker utilization kind of fixed (15.5% in 2025). Although his whiff price on the changeup dropped from 45.2% to 32.8% from 2024 to ’25, that was nonetheless nicely forward of the 24% whiff price he generated together with his heater.
That stated, batters discovered the slower pitch rather more hittable, batting .310 and slugging .483 for a .345 wOBA in opposition to the changeup, in comparison with a .155 AVG and .239 SLG with a .211 wOBA in opposition to the four-seamer. So regardless of Suarez’s improved strikeout and stroll charges, his xERA rose from 3.05 to three.66, as he was hit more durable, together with his common exit velocity rising from 89 mph to 90.5, and his barrel price from 7.7% to 9.1%; the latter represented a drop from the forty ninth percentile to the thirty sixth, nearer to the place his 42.6% hard-hit ranked (thirty first percentile). That’s a little bit of a priority. As Ben Clemens summarized whereas rating the right-hander no. 22 on our Prime 50 Free Brokers record, “Suarez goes to show 35 earlier than Opening Day, he depends closely on velocity, and he’s so fastball-dominant that any lack of form might make him shockingly hittable in a single day.”
Each PitchingBot and Stuff+ actually like Suarez’s arsenal and his command, although exterior of the four-seamer, they differ on the opposite two choices:
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Robert Suarez Pitch Modeling
| Season | botStf FA | botStf SI | botStf CH | botStf | botCmd | botOvr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 67 | 56 | 70 | 63 | 55 | 63 |
| 2025 | 65 | 55 | 71 | 65 | 63 | 71 |
| 2024 | 119 | 113 | 107 | 116 | 97 | 111 |
| 2025 | 115 | 117 | 106 | 113 | 108 | 119 |
PitchingBot is on the 20-80 scouting scale, the place 50 is common; for Stuff+, 100 is common.
What’s jarring, then, is that ZiPS doesn’t appear to be a fan of Suarez, particularly over the lifetime of this deal:
ZiPS Projection – Robert Suarez
| Yr | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 4 | 3.60 | 57 | 0 | 55.0 | 48 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 54 | 115 | 0.7 |
| 2027 | 5 | 3 | 3.86 | 54 | 0 | 51.3 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 108 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 4 | 4 | 4.28 | 51 | 0 | 48.3 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 97 | 0.0 |
Even Dan Szymborski, who supplied that projection, appeared puzzled, telling me, “ZiPS may be very grumpy about Suarez for a cause I haven’t discovered.” The system is especially skeptical about Suarez retaining his larger strikeout price. I ponder if it’s so simple as Clemens’ concern about age taking a chunk out of Suarez’s fastball to the purpose that it turns into rather more hittable — or, extra to the purpose, that his precise and anticipated outcomes on the four-seamer converge. He allowed a .214 xBA (59 factors larger than his AVG, a .373 xSLG (134 factors larger than his SLG), and a .286 xwOBA (75 factors larger than his wOBA). That -.075 wOBA-xwOBA hole locations him within the 93rd percentile amongst pitchers with at the very least 100 outcomes in opposition to their four-seamer.
Regardless of Suarez’s latest success closing, Atlanta’s plan, at the very least for now, is to make use of him as a setup man in entrance of Iglesias. It’s not onerous to see the flexibleness this affords the staff. If Iglesias — who turned his 2025 season round after dialing again the utilization of his slider — regresses in 2026, is dealt to a contender close to the commerce deadline if the Braves don’t rebound from their first sub-.500 season (and first playoff miss) since 2017, or departs as a free agent on the finish of the season, they’ve obtained an apparent successor.
The Suarez transfer wasn’t Atlanta’s just one on the tail finish of the Winter Conferences. On Wednesday night time, they added outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to the fold on a two-year, $23 million deal, which we’ll cowl in a separate piece tomorrow. Neither of these strikes, nor the return of Iglesias, goes to show the Braves from a 76-win staff again right into a contender, however every is a step in the precise route.