2026 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent group up is the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

Bear in mind how 2024 was a serious disappointment for the Atlanta Braves? Effectively, Father Time apparently took umbrage at that description being utilized to an 89-win group that a minimum of made the playoffs, and proceeded to have his beer held as he cooked up one thing actually disappointing in his workshop. The Braves completed with a 76-86 document, the group’s worst displaying in a season the place it was really thought-about a viable contender coming into Opening Day since 2008. Now they hope to place issues again along with kind of the identical core expertise.

Simply our depth chart, you’d really feel fairly good concerning the Braves, aside from a pair issues: They give the impression of being a bit worse at (nearly) each place than they did right now final 12 months, and we’re getting these WAR numbers with numerous the starters projected for a minimum of 600 plate appearances. The primary is an issue as a result of a group with barely higher projections simply gained 76 video games, and the second is worrisome as a result of ZiPS is kind of meh on Atlanta’s offensive expertise when you get previous the group’s spectacular first-tier gamers.

The one place the place the Braves did get a projection enhance is at catcher, with Drake Baldwin much more established than he was coming into 2025. The place didn’t disappoint this season, and there’s no cause for specific fear right here. Holding regular is Matt Olson, who greater than pulled his weight in his fourth consecutive ironman season. His 2025 paled subsequent to 2023’s 54-homer marketing campaign, possible Olson’s high-water mark, however it represented a pleasant restoration from a down 2024.

Elsewhere, there are questions. Austin Riley missed important time to harm, and for the third consecutive season, he shed an excellent chunk of his wRC+. Ronald Acuña Jr. was his traditional terrific self when wholesome, however after being suffering from Achilles points, he seems to be working out of components in his legs that haven’t been injured. Michael Harris II all of the sudden hit like a Double-A participant for months, and although he made up a few of the loss with a scorching July and August, you need to have questions on a serious leaguer who can go a half-season with a .234 on-base share. I’m additionally undecided that Ozzie Albies is even good anymore, which is a serious bummer, as he’s now solely a few years from hitting free company and in any other case having the chance to make up for one of many worst pre-free company contracts ever signed by an excellent participant.

Assistance is unlikely to come back from the minors. Atlanta has developed a formidable variety of place gamers, however till/except the 2025 draftees succeed, Baldwin is perhaps the final short-term enhance from inside for a bit. And whereas the Braves aren’t low cost within the sense that groups just like the Rays or Marlins are, the group isn’t identified for being tremendous aggressive in free company.

Briefly: If the Braves get a bit of excellent fortune for a change, this might be a extremely good lineup, however there’s quite a bit that might simply go very improper.

Pitchers

The issue with the beginning lineup’s projections repeats right here, particularly within the rotation: There are lots of good projections, however they’re principally a bit worse than they have been final 12 months. Sadly, pitchers being pitchers, I’ve much less confidence within the rotation staying wholesome than I do the lineup.

I’m definitely hopeful about Chris Sale, whose late-career mini-comeback has put him in believable Corridor of Fame territory, a minimum of for me. On the plus aspect, his rib cage harm, just like the bicycle-aided damaged wrist in 2022, wasn’t a recurrence of his prior elbow issues, so I’m cautiously optimistic right here. However he’s additionally going to be 37, an age the place decline turns into a critical year-to-year concern for pitchers.

Each ZiPS and I are comparatively bullish on Spencer Schwellenbach getting back from the stress fracture in his elbow, even when he has to offer again some velocity to take some stress off issues. Reynaldo López’s shoulder confirmed no structural injury, however baseball’s medical wizards have turn into adept at fixing elbows faster than shoulders, so warning is warranted there. I personally do not know what Spencer Strider is now, as he’s misplaced lots of velocity and his capacity to get whiffs contained in the strike zone is diminished.

The excellent news is that ZiPS sees Atlanta’s rotation as having higher emergency choices than the lineup. Bryce Elder and Hurston Waldrep are cheap fifth starter choices, and the pc thinks JR Ritchie and Lucas Braun may fill-in the place wanted with out it being a serious catastrophe.

ZiPS tasks the bullpen to be competently common, and whereas no person is forecast to be a dominant arm, the numbers don’t begin wanting worrisome till you get to the sixth or seventh relievers, which is true of most groups this early within the offseason. ZiPS sees Joel Payamps as a good addition who provides some heft to the ‘pen. I count on just a few strikes to be made right here, although it’s unlikely to be something that will push Atlanta into being a high tier bullpen.

Whenever you assume that lots of accidents will inevitably occur, the Braves appear like an 84-88 win group (or someplace thereabouts) relying on who the wholesome guys are. That’s higher than final 12 months’s end, however nonetheless sort of a disappointment. Uh oh, possibly I ought to keep away from utilizing that phrase once more!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate group projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 attributable to harm, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, when you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected group WAR. You will need to keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a group will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.