The New York Mets are buying and selling outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers in trade for infielder Marcus Semien, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Sunday evening. You don’t typically see one-for-one trades involving two gamers with a mixed 66.9 profession WAR of their previous, however this deal was made potential by the mixed $173.5 million owed Nimmo and Semien sooner or later.
The Mets and Rangers are each top-10 payroll groups and recidivist whales within the free agent market (with the caveat that the Mets are considerably extra top-payroll than the Rangers are), so this isn’t a straight-up wage dump. Certainly, solely a trivial amount of cash — $5 million shifting from New York to Texas, in response to Jon Heyman — is altering fingers. That greases the skids, but it surely’s solely about 5% of what Nimmo’s owed, and fewer than 3% of the full remaining worth of the contracts being moved.
Semien and Nimmo have each been wonderful gamers within the latest previous, as mirrored of their compensation. Semien is on a seven-year, $175 million contract he signed with the Rangers earlier than the 2022 season; Nimmo had a .385 profession OBP, and was coming off a 5.5 WAR season, when he signed with the Mets a 12 months later for $162 million over eight years.
Nearly as good as each gamers have been within the latest previous, the remaining freight on their contracts (three years, $72 million for Semien; 5 years, $101.5 million for Nimmo) all however definitely outstrips the on-field worth they’re seemingly to supply going ahead. Semien is 35; he’s seen his offensive output decline every of the previous two seasons, and whereas he was an excellent defensive second baseman in 2025, that’s a decline from what he was in 2023 and 2024, particularly an elite defensive second baseman.
Semien additionally missed the final month of the 2025 season with a damaged foot, although it was the results of an unfortunate foul ball, reasonably than some persistent age-related degeneration. That’s encouraging, however when a participant Semien’s age takes his first journey to the IL in eight years, it’s price flagging regardless of the reason for the damage.
Talking of foot accidents, Nimmo was coping with plantar fasciitis — in any other case often known as Albert Pujols’ Illness — via 2024 and early 2025. Whether or not via foot accidents or another mechanism, Nimmo has been hemorrhaging athleticism over the primary three years of his deal. In his stroll 12 months (effectively, his run 12 months, given how Nimmo takes his free passes), Nimmo had 84th-percentile dash velocity. This 12 months, he had Forty fourth-percentile dash velocity.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It appears to be like such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply upset.
We get it. You wish to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we would wish to level out a number of of the great the explanation why you must change into a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We cannot bug you with this advert, or some other.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get lower off.
3. Darkish mode and Traditional mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click information exports! Export our projections and leaderboards in your private initiatives.
6. Take away the pictures on the house web page! (Actually, this does not sound so nice to us, however some individuals needed it, and we like to provide our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We’ve handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections obtainable for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a personalized 12 months finish evaluation! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this 12 months, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, solely for Members.
10. Assist help FanGraphs and our complete workers! Our Members present us with crucial assets to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you may contemplate a Membership as we speak, for your self or as a present! And we understand this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite adverts on this article. We did not wish to overdo it.
By all of it, Nimmo has performed at the least 151 video games in every of the previous 4 seasons, and after crossing the five-steal threshold solely as soon as in his first eight seasons, he’s 28-for-29 in stolen bases since 2024.
However the model of Nimmo the Mets signed up for within the winter of 2022 wanted to have the ability to run. Again then, Nimmo did an important factor a place participant can do — get on base — extraordinarily effectively. Sincerely, he was the most effective non-Aaron Choose, non-Juan Soto, non-space alien on-base guys on the planet.
On the identical time, he’d hit 10 homers in a season solely twice to that time. He had by no means — and nonetheless has by no means — hit .300 or slugged .500. His profession strikeout price was 22.3% in 2022, and it has not budged even a tenth of a degree three years later.
Briefly, this was a mean hitter — utilizing “hitter” right here to imply strictly the bat-to-ball element of the sport — whose elite on-base expertise made him an excellent offensive participant general. Should you’re paying that man greater than $20 million a 12 months, it’d be good to have the ability to use him in middle area.
Nimmo was by no means Kevin Kiermaier, however at his peak he might at the least struggle middle area to a draw. Not anymore, and the athleticism markers are going the unsuitable approach. Over time, that began to trigger issues for the Mets. Soto’s not a superb defender in proper, however even when he’d be prepared to DH, the Mets have been utilizing that spot on Starling Marte. Pete Alonso in all probability ought to’ve been DHing, however he needed to play first. Mark Vientos might be a primary baseman, however he needed to play third. Brett Baty is a 3rd baseman, however he needed to play second. Jeff McNeil might be a nook outfielder, however he couldn’t play there due to Nimmo and Soto.
What a headache. Even with terrific protection up the center, the Mets ended up with the Nineteenth-best protection general final season. Clearly, that logjam was already beginning to remedy itself. Alonso and Marte are free brokers, and McNeil simply had surgical procedure for thoracic outlet syndrome, which can in all probability finish any goals he had of being a pitcher. Extra to the purpose, McNeil will at the least begin the season on the IL.
Nonetheless, being tied to Nimmo in left reduces a crew’s choices. On the identical time, Nimmo has been altering his method to change into a extra typical hitter. He’s averaged 24 house runs a 12 months since signing his contract, however at an enormous price in OBP. Over the previous two seasons, Nimmo has hit .244/.326/.418. In 2025, he posted his first single-digit stroll price since his 32-game main league debut in 2016. There are one or two extra yellow flags if you happen to squint — a declining in-zone contact price mixed with an growing pull price, most notably — however I don’t wish to overstate issues when Nimmo is self-evidently in decline.
Qualitatively, he’s now only a regular dude, reasonably than the man you possibly can stick in entrance of Alonso and have him rating 100 runs a 12 months. Quantitatively, Nimmo is now a 110 wRC+ man, reasonably than a 130 wRC+ man.
Personally, I feel the draw back danger with 5 years of a declining nook outfielder is large, particularly when he begins from a 110 wRC+ baseline. The Phillies discovered this out after they signed Nick Castellanos to a contract that just about precisely matches what the Rangers owe Nimmo going ahead.
However Nimmo clearly has a superb eye, and he’s already made one main method adjustment, and left area isn’t particularly bodily taxing. At any price, he’s miles higher than Adolis García, who was non-tendered on Friday, has been the previous two seasons.
Semien, along with being two and a half years older than Nimmo, has an offensive fashion that has far larger danger of going to zero. Over the previous two seasons, Semien has a .307 OBP, and he’s seen his energy drop from 29 homers and a .201 ISO in 2023 to fifteen homers and a .134 ISO in 2025. Semien’s contact price is declining steadily — it went below 80% final season for the primary time since 2020 — whereas he’s swinging and chasing extra.
I’m not going to go as deep on Semien as I did on Nimmo, as a result of whereas Peak Nimmo was an odd participant, Peak Semien is far simpler to grasp. In 2023, Semien had a 128 wRC+ with elite protection at second base, and was price 6.5 WAR. In 2024, he had a 101 wRC+ with elite protection at second, and was price 4.3 WAR. In 2024, he had an 89 wRC+ with above-average protection at second, and was price 2.1 WAR. Possibly push that final WAR complete up a pair tenths to account for time missed with the damaged foot.
There’s a large, wide selection of cheap opinion on whether or not Nimmo or Semien is healthier now. All of the extra so if you happen to’re speaking about how the 2 are going to age over the following three seasons.
Me? I’d in all probability take Semien proper now, however they’re of comparable worth out of context.
That stated, context is why this commerce received made. I’d take Semien over Nimmo for 2 causes: First, I place a excessive worth on the team-building benefit granted by having a stable, dependable second baseman. You could find a barely above-average hitter who can stand in left area much more simply than a superb defensive center infielder who has a clue on the plate.
For the Mets, Semien’s a greater match. You possibly can plug him in subsequent to Francisco Lindor, flip 1,000,000 double performs, and neglect about him till October. The Rangers don’t have something just like the muddle the Mets had final 12 months on the left finish of the defensive spectrum. There’s Wyatt Langford, after which… I don’t suppose I’d be particularly connected to both Joc Pederson or Jake Burger if push got here to shove. And if Evan Carter is wholesome sufficient to get within the lineup on daily basis, however not wholesome sufficient to play middle, effectively, you possibly can cross that bridge once you get there.
Second, the contract scenario. Semien will price the Mets $26 million this 12 months in money and $24 million in CBT worth; Nimmo prices the Rangers $19 million a 12 months for each, when you consider changes for signing bonus and what the Mets are chipping in for processing and dealing with.
If I have been constructing a crew with restricted assets (which the Mets may not be, to be honest), I’d reasonably have Semien than Nimmo as a result of you may get out of the Semien enterprise two years faster, and for about $25 million much less general, than you may get out of the Nimmo enterprise. The Rangers are paying much less cash year-by-year, however the Mets are paying much less over the lifetime of the contract. That comes with the apparent follow-up query: What are you going to make use of that financial savings on? How a lot of will probably be redirected to fill different wants? This isn’t a sport the place cap house is a tangible idea; each resolution with a monetary motive must be adopted by, “After which what?”
That uncertainty makes this transfer — easy as it’s — onerous to guage so early within the offseason. As pessimistic as I’m bout Nimmo’s long-term profession path, nobody can deny that the Mets’ lineup appears to be like extraordinarily brief in the intervening time. By buying Nimmo, the Rangers changed, and improved on, García. However have they got a plan for changing Semien, or have they only robbed Peter to pay Paul?
Finally, this commerce of helpful gamers on huge contracts should make the trail ahead simpler for each groups. In a great world, everybody walks away pleased.