Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/25

Jay Jaffe: It’s a weak first-year slate that doesn’t have anyone who will get on this yr, and I see just one candidate — Cole Hamels — with any long-term potential

Jay Jaffe: In the meantime, Carlos Beltrán wants to realize lower than 5% to realize entry. My pofile of him ought to be going up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: In the meantime, I’ve profiled six of the eight candidates on the 2026 Up to date Baseball Period Committee poll, together with Fernando Valenzuela on Friday. Lengthy story quick, I believe the voters ought to be taking a look at him as a pioneer reasonably than specializing in the good-not-great statistics  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: with that ample preamble out of the way in which, on with the present.

Nancy’s Good friend Sluggo: 500 dwelling runs appears a whimsical aim for Pete Alonso given the decline part gamers undergo of their 30s, however is {that a} magic quantity for the Corridor of Fame if the participant hasn’t been caught utilizing PEDS or experiencing some equal extenuating circumstance? Would a participant with that whole positively get in? Thanks, Jay

Jay Jaffe: (sorry, lunch arrived 20 minutes forward of schedule as I started typing this)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if 500 dwelling runs can be seen as a particular in for a participant who wasn’t seen as an MVP contender in some unspecified time in the future however I believe it will be sufficient if he had a clear repute

Sirras: What participant that’s at the moment on the poll however unlikely to be voted into the Corridor of Fame did you particularly get pleasure from watching?

Jay Jaffe: Matt Kemp was definitely a whole lot of enjoyable when he was an MVP contender chasing a 40-40 season. Edwin Encarnación’s homers tended to be spectacular ones. And I’ll all the time have a smooth spot for David Wright and need his physique hadn’t betrayed him

Jay Jaffe: Sushi: not the best meal to eat at my desk whereas chatting. Sorry people

Garrett: Ideas on a possible Triston Casas change of surroundings commerce to Washington? Surprise if there’s a deal to be made with Paul Toboni in cost and the Nats receiving calls on MacKenzie Gore.

Jay Jaffe: I believe if the Nationals are going to commerce Gore, they need to goal a place of better defensive significance and anyone who isn’t surrounded by query marks after accidents

not the lunch man: Clearly there are a whole lot of fascinating issues about HoF season different than simply “who will get on this yr”, however from that perspective, does this really feel like a very boring one? It seems like we’ve one extremely possible case and no person else wherever shut

Jay Jaffe: It’s not the MOST thrilling cycle however right here are some things:

• *Andruw Jones is lower than 9 factors away from 75%, and would have the most important achieve from a poll debut of any Corridor of Famer
• Chase Utley stands an excellent probability of crossing the 50% threshold, a powerful indicator of future election
• Utley’s coattails may assist candidates corresponding to Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. I’m not notably eager on both however I see the arguments of their favor.  
• Cole Hamels is a harbinger of beginning pitchers to come back and is best than lots of people keep in mind
• What occurs with Félix Hernández after a stronger-than-expected debut?

Tom M: Jeff Passan mentioned Pirates have been runner up for Josh Naylor at ~$80M, and are in on Schwarber.  What’s you tackle this?

Jay Jaffe: They’re going to maintain Davy Andrews busy together with his We Tried Tracker

Mr. Jones And Me: Andrew Jones may get on this yr…or he may stay considerably stalled out…any sense of momentum on Jones’s half? If he doesn’t make it in through the Author’s Poll, I think about a Vet Committee staffed with Chipper, McGriff, Bobby Cox, Glavine, and so on. can be very happy to get him in (truthful or in any other case), however nonetheless, curious to me that he’s more durable for voters to wrap their heads round than the Wagners and Heltons of the world.

Mr. Jones And Me: (Past the low common, fall-off publish age 30, home violence, and so on. – ALL OF THAT ASIDE)

Jay Jaffe: I believe the large factor is that his excessive JAWS standing is pushed by being the profession chief in fielding runs (+235, to go together with 10 Gold Gloves). Persons are inherently suspicious of the accuracy of defensive metrics and Gold Gloves and I can’t say I blame them. His momentum has slowed; he’s solely gained 8 factors within the final two cycles, so possibly a few of that different baggage that you just wave off is catching up or is insurmountable for some voters. I do suppose he’ll get in, however possibly not this yr.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve struggled with all of that myself, truthfully, however I’ve voted for him every time (since 2021)

CoriolesEffect: After the large 3+1 of Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander and Greinke, who’s subsequent for you when it comes to SPs with a aggressive Corridor shot? Has Sale handed Cole?

Jay Jaffe: Sale has handed Hamels when it comes to JAWS however I hope we don’t have to attend for his eligibility earlier than we get one other enshrined starter. I’m actually undecided who can be subsequent if not Hamels, except the Up to date Committee takes up the case of Johan Santana in 2029.

You probably did it once more: Fairly positive Choose locked up the MVP primarily based on how he completed…. proper after you wrote in regards to the race.

Jay Jaffe: Ha, you’ll have a degree. On August 27 I wrote about Cal Raleigh’s case for MVP (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t…) and from that evening onward, Choose hit… .374/.533/.798 (251 wRC+) with 13 homers in 137 PA. Raleigh hit .252/.389/.579 (167 wRC+) with 10 homers in 131 PA from that time, so … wow. I hadn’t realized the hole was that huge afterwards.

Jay Jaffe:

War2D2: Hello Jay! I used to be in a pleasant argument with my brother yesterday in regards to the HoF candidacies of Pettitte and Hamels. My private take was that Hamels deserves it greater than Pettitte, however I in all probability wouldn’t vote for him. My brother took the other tack (actually solely as a result of we have been bored and wanted one thing to complain about). I do know you voted for Pettitte final time round—do you suppose he’s extra deserving than Hamels, about the identical, or much less?

Jay Jaffe: I truly voted for Pettitte 2 years in the past (2024 poll) then changed him with Félix final yr. Proper now I lean Hamels, whose postseason credentials are stable if not as voluminous as Pettitte’s

Jay Jaffe: my hunch is since I’ve room this time round i’ll in all probability vote each, and Félix, and I’ll take one other have a look at Buehrle

Jay Jaffe: OK, as a result of Cloudfare mess earlier, which delayed our editorial pipeline, Beltrán is being held for tomorrow. I’ll have the Period Committee profiles of Bonds and Clemens Thursday and Friday, schedule-wise.

bringbackpologrounds: Rank the occasions that have been most important to the Dodgers turning into a juggernaut: 1. Guggenheim takes over 2. TV Deal 3. Mattingly dumped for Roberts 4. Shohei indicators

Jay Jaffe: I believe that the order you could have them in there — which is chronological — is definitely about proper. First, ditching McCourt for a well-capitalized proprietor who knew how one can use the Dodgers’ market to the franchise’s benefit, then scoring the huge TV deal to assist that, then shoring up the dugout by ditching a supervisor who couldn’t work with a Twenty first-century entrance workplace, after which getting the most important free agent of all time.

Martel Gonzalez: Do you suppose groups are fearful about giving guys long run contracts with the lockout subsequent yr? Assuming the 27 season is canceled, gamers can be an additional yr older than anticipated

Jay Jaffe: A) if there’s a lockout these gamers don’t receives a commission. B) it’s silly to imagine the 2027 season can be outright cancelled. the groups and MLB have far an excessive amount of to lose to let that occur.

Jay Jaffe: C) these gamers below contract have been all the time going to become old.

Trevor: All these lockout articles at this time from outstanding reporters…. What number of video games do you suppose each side would realistically miss? A month? Complete season?

Jay Jaffe: are there lockout articles at this time? I haven’t seen any however I’ve been off of social media for just a few hours. Once more, I believe the homeowners have far an excessive amount of to lose to punt an entire season. Might they lose weeks? I suppose it’s conceivable, however i’ll put it as “lower than a month” most

Matt Kory: Hey Jay! Hope all is nicely! What’s the very best beer you’ve had lately? Cheers!

Jay Jaffe: Matty! Very long time no see on the socials. I’ve sadly gotten lazy about logging my beer picks however I used to be blown away by Treehouse Julius — which i’d solely had as soon as earlier than, again in 2017 — after I purchased some again in July whereas on Cape Cod. extra lately, getting reacquainted with previous good friend Deschutes Black Butte Porter, which I had by no means seen earlier than outdoors of a single now-defunct bar in NYC, has been a deal with.

Jackson: If Schwarber and Realmuto don’t find yourself again in Philly, the place do you see them going?

Jay Jaffe: A Schwarber-Cubs reunion wouldn’t shock me. If Realmuto leaves, I’m going to guess Padres since their catching has been dreadful recently.

Phil: Who’s Jarren Duran, to you? I’m very torn, as a Crimson Sox fan listening to these rumors. I’m not satisfied he’s homophobic, for what that’s price–I believe he realized one thing from all of that. And he’s an interesting man. However I’m under no circumstances positive how good he actually is, baseballwise.

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know, besides that his fluctuations make him onerous to pin down even when I put aside the Different Stuff. A few of that could be because of Fenway Park, the place it’s actually powerful to get a learn on outfield defensive metrics. To me Duran appears to be a man who’s in all probability able to manning heart with above-average offense for the place for a few years, however might not be capable to stay a major plus in a nook. That’s nonetheless a 3-4 win participant for the subsequent few years however not anyone i’d break the financial institution or tear up my roster for.

I do nonetheless have bother getting previous the slur, however I additionally know Duran has had some fairly critical psychological well being struggles as nicely, together with a suicide try. I hope he’s acquired an excellent assist system in place, greater than something.

MikeD: It’s a skinny poll, however relying in your views relating to PED gamers, I can see probably 9 future HOFers. Am I loopy?

Jay Jaffe: even when I depend A-Rod and Manny, who aren’t getting in through the writers and possibly not the committees except Bonds and Clemens go first (ha!) I can’t get to 9. Beltrán, Jones, Utley… then a whole lot of others whose paths to Cooperstown are something however clear, no matter your or my analysis of them

Jeremy: There are some gamers for whom the notion appears to essentially change between the time they retire and their time on the BBWAA poll. Gamers who weren’t extensively seen as HoF candidates once they have been lively, who ultimately get elected. And conversely, gamers who have been seen as critical candidates once they have been lively, who by no means sniff election. Are they any generalities about such circumstances? Do they principally come up when somebody retires simply earlier than massive adjustments in how the sport is performed? Are they principally gamers who have been under- or over-appreciated when lively as a result of superior stats appreciated them higher than conventional counting stats?

Jay Jaffe: The generality is one thing you touched upon: instances change. The methods wherein we view gamers each inside the business and as followers have been shaken up, with superior statistics a giant driver of that. With the permeation of analytics in entrance workplaces, participant paths are extra malleable than ever as nicely, so we get fastidiously calibrated swing adjustments and pitch growth. We’ve additionally acquired workload adjustments which have had a big impact on pitching, which has spilled over into hitter technique (swing for the fences extra, and so on).

Jay Jaffe: The sport doesn’t keep in a single place for lengthy, for higher or worse.

TKDC: You’ve written just a few instances criticizing the brand new committee rule that “bans” a participant “completely” if he fails to succeed in a sure threshold on two eras votes, nonetheless, how a lot inventory can you place in such a “everlasting ban” when there may be nothing in any respect conserving the Corridor of Fame deo

TKDC: simply deciding to reverse it?

Jay Jaffe: For positive, the Corridor has modified up the principles relating to committees so many instances throughout this millennium that issues don’t keep in place lengthy, nevertheless it’s all the time more durable to alter course when there’s a rule in place. Some majority of the Corridor of Fame board wished this everlasting ban put into place, and so I don’t suppose it may be waved off as one thing prone to change rapidly, even when the format will get tweaked. And it’s price remembering that taking even 5-10 years to alter course might be the distinction between an honoree being alive or useless when he’s lastly elected.

2131, 1312: Will Paul Goldschmidt be seen as as near a shoo-in as Joey Votto appears to be? They’ve nearly an identical profession values and counting stats (though I suppose Goldy may nonetheless tack on just a few extra)

Jay Jaffe: their numbers will wind up trying very related however Goldschmidt doesn’t have the identical degree of cultural cachet as Votto — no person’s doing oral histories of his quirks or writing about his presence on social media. Writers love Votto, and that’s going to speed up his progress the place Goldschmidt would possibly take just a few years for voters to come back round.

Jeremy: It looks like fast adjustments in beginning pitcher use are all the time going to go away guys like Hamels, Petite, Santana as controversial borderline circumstances. In comparison with many guys who got here only a bit earlier than them, they arrive up quick. However in comparison with many guys who got here only a bit after them, they’re going to finish up trying wonderful. I actually recognize your work on how one can regulate our requirements to permit for adjustments in how the sport is performed. However aren’t there are all the time going to be powerful calls related to gamers who performed proper in the midst of a time of quickly altering requirements?

Jay Jaffe: it’s an ongoing problem, and one actual downside is that as careers like Hamels’ being among the many greatest, we don’t have a simple mechanism to return and reward guys like Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Saberhagen et al who have been pretty much as good or higher however couldn’t measure as much as the 300-win guys who preceded them, and who symbolize the true anomaly in post-expansion baseball.

RallyGuy: Are the Yankees considerably screwed if Trent Grisham takes the QO this afternoon?

Jay Jaffe: no, as a result of a one-year deal might be a greater final result for them than re-signing him to a 4- or 5-year deal the place he’s extra prone to decline and require a transfer to a nook.

Kip: Ought to ATL be hyper aggressive in free company this yr? Their window seems to be closing after 2028: Acuna can be a free agent; Chris Sale can be retired by then; Ozzie will in all probability be out of baseball; Olson and Riley can be coming into their decline part.

Jay Jaffe: yeah I believe it is a massive winter for them, particularly for fortifying their rotation.

Jerry: Uber Eats or DoorDash?

Jay Jaffe: Seamless

Nico’s Nook: You appear fairly optimistic about Beltran.  Is the Astros factor his largest hurdle?  Is it the truth that his stats are so broad?  Competitors at a tricky place?  Performed for too many groups?

Jay Jaffe: sure, the sign-stealing factor. His numbers are very sturdy — high 10 in JAWS with very related counting stats (however higher OBP and positional adjustment) to Andre Dawson.

Mr. T: With higher advocacy would Ray Lankford have had a shot on the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: No. The man had 38.2 profession WAR and 1,561 hits. That’s an apparent non-Corridor of Famer.

2131, 1312: Would you rank Hamels above Mark Buehrle? and which ones will earn extra votes?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, I believe so and I believe the voters will see it that approach too, if not in 2026 then ultimately. Hamels was extra invaluable on a per-inning foundation as a result of he missed extra bats, and he has a stronger postseason resumé as nicely.

Edna Krabapple: Was your level that guys like Shin Soo Choo benefit induction primarily based on being the primary [country]-born participant, or simply that they need to be thought-about/acknowledged by some means for that?

Jay Jaffe: acknowledged. For dozens of gamers, the dignity is simply getting on the poll, and he deserves that due to his stateside accomplishments and the importance of his path to the majors as the primary Korea-born participant.

Jay Jaffe: guys like which have a big impact in rising the sport internationally.

Mike Teevee: Appears loopy to me that Lee Smith wanted the Eras committee to get in.  What was the meat towards him amongst writers?

Jay Jaffe: Smith debuted with 42.3% and by yr 10 had solely elevated that to 50.6% — after which Bonds, Clemens et al confirmed up and commenced overshadowing all people on the poll. I believe the large subject is that he wasn’t seen because the epitome of dominance the way in which an Eckersley, Gossage, or Rivera have been, even whereas as soon as proudly owning the saves file.

WinTwins0410: Jay, two questions: 1) I do know we don’t know the identities of the committee members but, however doesn’t it actually seem to be (and also you’ve successfully written as a lot) that the one actually possible Period Committee contenders are Kent, Mattingly and Murphy this yr?  Assuming the Corridor acts because it has prior to now, I simply don’t see them making a committee that may let in anybody related to PEDs.  We’ll know extra once we see the committee’s id I notice, nevertheless it isn’t actually only a committee whose output can be electing a number of of these three guys? After which 2) Ought to we be stunned that Schilling, who acquired seven out of 16 votes final time, was omitted from this poll?  Appears that approach to me.  I discover him to be exceedingly odious and wouldn’t vote for him, however nonetheless — I’m type of stunned that he didn’t price a spot on this poll, between the 7/16 votes final time and his earlier BBWAA totals. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t solely depend out Sheffield, who has a believable anti-Bonds narrative as regards to his PED connection, or Valenzuela, whose standing as a pioneer might be his actual ticket in.

As for Schilling, the 5/16 rule (any candidate not getting 5 votes is ineligible to look for the subsequent cycle) appears not less than partially designed to stagger a larger-than-manageable group throughout a number of ballots. Anyone needed to get bumped, and I’d guess Schilling’s open letter to the Corridor requesting that he be shielded from the writers’ poll did him no favors.

Bathroom: Why has Utley’s assist been so tepid? He has a powerful statistical case, an incredible peak and a clear file. Seems like a simple sure to me

Jay Jaffe: We’re speaking a couple of high-peak, short-career man who acquired screwed out of awards and whose defensive metrics are doing lots to drive his case. I don’t see 39.8% after two cycles as tepid in any respect, particularly when moving into the low 40s is mostly a harbinger of future election.

Visitor: not together with Alomar, that man doesn’t depend

Visitor: do you suppose Delgado will get in simply primarily based on the very fact we’ve 0 Jays within the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: whoops reversed the order of these two, and no, that’s not going to drive voters to decide on Delgado.

2131, 1312: Do you suppose Gerrit Cole may find yourself attending to 200 wins (he’s at 153 and coming into age 35)? and by the point he’s on the poll would anyone care?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he can nonetheless attain 200, and it will likely be an enormous deal if he does, so far as HOF stuff, as a result of he’s checked a lot of the different containers already.

12 to six: admittedly “problem” trades are fairly uncommon…that mentioned, sal perez is 35; would one thing like dashing and a secondary prospect for makiel garcia make sense?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it taking place. The Dodgers love Max Muncy, who’s comparatively cheap, they usually’re in no hurry to maneuver Speeding.

Nick Stone: You referenced Rollins WRT to Utley. Are you involved that his superficially stronger case would possibly damage Utley’s?

Jay Jaffe: Hey Nick! I believe it’s the opposite approach round. If Utley is getting assist, possibly we should take one other have a look at Rollins, who has greater counting stats, extra {hardware}, and was thought to be the chief of these groups.

War2D2: I simply noticed a publish from a author saying they reached the tip of their “10-year HoF voting eligibility.” When did they add a voter age-out clause?

Jay Jaffe: In 2015, the Corridor introduced a call to sundown voters greater than 10 years faraway from lively protection. Between that rule, media consolidation and job losses, the voters has been decreased by about 1/3 relative to its peak circa 2011.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, that’s all of the pitches I’ve on this elbow this week. Thanks a lot for stopping by. undecided but if I’ll do that subsequent week as a result of vacation — if not, get pleasure from Thanksgiving and know that I and the remainder of my colleagues right here at FanGraphs are all the time grateful on your assist.